14 lines
3.1 KiB
JSON
14 lines
3.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"HubID": "2636",
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"Date": "5/19/2023",
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"HubTags": [
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"External Platform Posts"
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],
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"Contacts": "",
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"Companies": "",
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"File": "",
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"Image": "",
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"Summary": "<p>I think the 2025-2045 era will be massively transformative. Here's the setup as I see it.</p><p><br /></p>",
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"Notes": "<p>I think the 2025-2045 era will be massively transformative. Here's the setup as I see it.</p><p>This come from my futurist work, where I research and understand technology trends in the context of cultural, societal, and geopolitical factors to gain clarity about the future and position for success. <br /></p><p>Global supply chains are no longer feasible:<br /></p><p>> competition for resources...</p><p>> + climate change...</p><p>> + cost to maintain a globalized world order = deglobalization</p><p>The global world order is shifting and future success will be dependent on the following attributes:<br /></p><p>> Demographics</p><p>> Access to resources</p><p>> Vibrant consumer markets</p><p>> Wealth, military strength, infrastructure and educated population</p><p>(export-led countries are now highly disadvantaged)</p><p>Who is positioned for success?<br /></p><p>US in a class all its own. It was not the 20th century, but the 21st century that may be remembered as the Age of America. Not to say we won’t have problems to deal with, but we will fare better than everyone else.<br /></p><p>Distant second to the US: UK, France, Turkey, Australia/New Zealand, and maybe India - they have elements of the above attributes<br /></p><p>Global supply chains will become more regional:<br /></p><p>> US leads with Mexico, and Canada is able to piggyback on their successes, along with parts of Central and South America<br /></p><p>> UK leads with Scandinavia</p><p>> Australia leads with Southeast Asia</p><p>> Others likely to emerge - too early to tell who.</p><p>Everyone else will devolve backwards from being industrialized nations, some faster than others. This will be a tough era (possibly disastrous) for many countries. <br /></p><p>Who vies for the bottom? China, Russia and Ukraine - poor or none of the above attributes (and war is accelerating the demise of the later two). <br /></p><p>General Inflation may be here to stay through 2030 driven largely by (1) energy costs because we do not have enough and resource constraints to electrify, (2) monetization of debt, which drives up asset prices, like real estate, (3) labor constraints, which drives up pay and (4) investment capital leaving due to baby boomer retirements, (5) Goal posts moving away from lowest cost (globalization era) to reliability and redundancy (deglobalization era), which will raise costs. We will have to muddle through as best as possible. But predicting inflation/deflation is different for everyone, so consider it carefully in context of your situation. Use this tool. https://lnkd.in/gw7S5shm<br /></p><p>Feels like a damaging and deep recession will hit in the 2026-2030 period for the U.S. The 2030's and 2040's could be awesome for the U.S., but getting to where we are now to there and navigating this recession will be a challenge.<span></span><br /></p>"
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}
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