15 lines
1.7 KiB
JSON
15 lines
1.7 KiB
JSON
{
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"HubID": "5172",
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"Date": "3/8/2025",
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"HubTags": [
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"External Platform Posts",
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"Future Map"
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],
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"Contacts": "",
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"Companies": "",
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"File": "",
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"Image": "",
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"Summary": "<p>Valuations in our investments markets - equity+bonds+real estate - are forming an epic top that could unravel over decades and could take equally as long to recover. Here is why. </p><p>1. U.S. equity+bonds+real estate (residential and commercial) is valued at ~$180 trillion, of which ~$60 trillion is owned by foreign investors. When you apply the populist flavor of politics that is trending worldwide along with increasing financial pressures that every country is facing and geopolitical conflicts (whether kinetic like wars or trade policies), that means that countries will increasingly seek to return capital home. This is highly negative for maintaining valuations in the U.S. market that has so much foreign investment. We have to expect that in the coming decade or two, significant foreign investment will leave and return to its own shores. </p><p>2. As our economy is increasingly dependent on spending by the top 1/3 income brackets, which derives its wealth mostly from investments, if investment valuations falter, they stop spending, which means there is little left to power our economy.</p><p>3. Layer on recessions and we could be seeing even greater losses in valuations of these assets, which means less spending by consumers (especially the top 1/3) and less taxes to support government services (which are also dependent on rising valuations to support taxes on capital gains).</p><p>It all becomes a viscous downward cycle that compounds.<span></span></p>",
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"Notes": ""
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}
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