15 lines
2.8 KiB
JSON
15 lines
2.8 KiB
JSON
{
|
|
"HubID": "4879",
|
|
"Date": "10/28/2024",
|
|
"HubTags": [
|
|
"External Platform Posts",
|
|
"Future Map Forward Guidance",
|
|
"Future Map"
|
|
],
|
|
"Contacts": "",
|
|
"Companies": "",
|
|
"File": "",
|
|
"Image": "4879__Image_URL.jpg",
|
|
"Summary": "<p>These maps look pretty alarming, showing government transfers as a share of personal income, which include Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, Unemployment insurance, Food assistance programs (e.g., SNAP), Housing subsidies, Disability payments, Veteran benefits<span></span>. In 20 years, we went from small pockets of orange approximating 10% of the U.S., to large swaths of orange covering what approximates 50% of the U.S. Diving a bit deeper, recent data says total transfers approximate 18%, whereas in 2000, it was 12%. So it has gone up quite a bit, which tracks with demographics where we have an aging population and fewer young people paying into the system. The challenge is how does a population that gets almost 20% of personal income from a government that is massively in debt, adjust when the government at some point hits the wall and cannot go into further debt to finance its expenses. The only way to fix this is to massively ramp up family formation, immigration of young people and reindustrialization, all of which would give us a multi-decade colossal growth engine that can help us grow out of our debt. </p><p>Paulo Lacerda Sobral</p><p>Can you go deeper on reindustrialization?</p><p>Paulo Lacerda Sobral One key challenge in the U.S. is we lack a growth engine, as demographics are currently unfavorable and we are saturated in product. However, what is available to use as a new growth engine is reindustrialization, where we rebuild our industrial base. Consider that Manufacturing as share of employment declined from 30% in the 1970s to barely 8% today, so while we may not get to 30% again, we have a lot of room to get back the industrial base that we exported. But when you layer on the buildout of AI+robotics+electrification, in addition to rebuilding our industrial base to make products, all of that equates to an incredible growth engine that will require more people (immigration+family formation), which leads to better demographics and a bigger population that can spend and grow GDP. /1</p><p>Paulo Lacerda Sobral We are only half as densely populated as Europe, so have a lot of room to grow. Where long-term annual GDP growth is 3%, we might see 6-8% annual GDP growth over decades. People are starting to get this and realize we need aggressive industrial policy + innovation + more people to tap into this growth engine to power our economy out of our challenges. I talk a lot about the future and what we can expect in my futurist work published on my website. Thx for asking. 👍 /2<span></span></p>",
|
|
"Notes": ""
|
|
} |