15 lines
2.1 KiB
JSON
15 lines
2.1 KiB
JSON
{
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"HubID": "4321",
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"Date": "5/29/2024",
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"HubTags": [
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"External Platform Posts",
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"Future Map Changelog",
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"Future Map"
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],
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"Contacts": "",
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"Companies": "",
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"File": "",
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"Image": "4321__Image_URL.jpg",
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"Summary": "<p>I believe the probability for a Taiwan invasion/blockade is dramatically increasing. Bloomberg puts its at 1 in 4; I think it is higher, maybe much higher. </p><p>We used to base rationale for an invasion on economics - China will never do it because they would crater their economy from their dependence on the world for resources and exports. Many thought the same about Russia and Ukraine. <br /></p><p>Why is China stockpiling oil and resources? Why is China opening two new coal plants a week, despite the massive environmental damage? Why is China reducing its US Treasury holdings, that with rates where they are now, are a clear source of income? <br /></p><p>China is not motivated by economics but by ideology. They are also imploding from poor demographics, so they have nothing to lose through an invasion. And with centralization of power into one man - Xi - there is no balance of voices in Chinese leadership to temper such actions. <br /></p><p>China’s people have no say in this and Chinese leadership do not care about economic consequences as they have firm control over the population. <br /></p><p>Russia was an excellent test case for China and where is Russia now? Most western countries have gotten around sanctions by exporting resources, supplies and product to Russia through intermediary countries (see https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks). Their economy is doing rather well and western countries are waning in their support of Ukraine. <br /></p><p>The new block that is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela realize that the west is more concerned with its income and standard of living than any ideology or moral high ground. And they are exploiting that. <br /></p><p>So we have to prepare for that and expect a GDP shock of almost 7%. For comparison, the GFC of 2008 produced a 3% fall in GDP.<span></span><br /></p>",
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"Notes": ""
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} |