14 lines
3.9 KiB
JSON
14 lines
3.9 KiB
JSON
{
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"HubID": "3150",
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"Date": "11/28/2023",
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"HubTags": [
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"External Platform Posts",
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"Future Map Forward Guidance"
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],
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"Contacts": "",
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"Companies": "",
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"File": "",
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"Image": "3150__Image_URL.jpg",
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"Summary": "<p>The future assumes growth in #energy production (oil/gas/electricity), but the data suggests some possible problems with that and even a reduction from current levels, which would be really bad.</p>",
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"Notes": "<p>This is part of my futurist work looking out 3-10 years, making predictions, and positioning myself and my businesses accordingly.<br /></p><p>Oil/gas production. The attached slide shows quite a large deficit in oil/gas capex, and dwindling reserves. Capex takes years to come online and before reaping benefits. Could we experience severe shortfalls in oil/gas in the future, which raises prices and leads to rationing?<br /></p><p>Renewables. The path towards #renewables requires mining of materials and intermediate processing of infrastructure. Mines take years, if not decades to come online. Intermediate processing of infrastructure (like solar panels) is done mostly in China, which as a country could implode in this decade. Who will pick up the slack for processing? That can take years and decades to come online.<br /></p><p>Nuclear. Currently, #nuclear supplies 20% of electricity in the U.S. But all but one of the plants are 50 years old and could be decommissioned in the coming decades, with no new replacements scheduled and new nuclear technologies that may not be viable on a commercial basis.<br /></p><p>Could #greenhydrogen and #fusionenergy save us? Possibly, but they are both at least 5-years away on an optimistic case, and more likely at least 10 years away as a base case.<br /></p><p>More: Modular/portable reactors maybe proving unviable, so unless the govt steps in to take over development and cost, small nuclear may not work in the future.<br /></p><p>I asked ChatGPT for an assessment about whether I am correct or not.<br /></p><p>Your assessment of the future energy production landscape, particularly regarding oil and gas capex and reserves, renewables, and nuclear energy, is aligned with the challenges highlighted in recent energy investment reports. Here's an analysis based on the IEA's World Energy Investment 2023 report:<br /></p><p>Oil and Gas: Investment in oil and gas is rising but remains below the level needed for new supply to meet long-term demand, with a significant share going to dividends and share buybacks instead of reinvestment.<br /></p><p>Renewables: Clean energy investment has increased, particularly in advanced economies and China, with solar energy receiving significant attention. However, investment in renewables faces challenges like higher input costs and concentrated investment in certain geographies.<br /></p><p>Natural Gas: There's an increase in approvals for new natural gas resources, partly as a response to the shortfall in Russian supply, but long-term demand remains uncertain, especially in Europe with its strong climate goals.<br /></p><p>Clean Energy and Grids: Clean energy investment, particularly in electrification, is growing rapidly and could meet the announced climate pledges if the trend continues. However, the investment in grids and other support systems is lagging, and geographical imbalances persist.<br /></p><p>Your predictions are in line with the IEA's analysis, reflecting a transitional energy market that faces both short-term pressures and long-term uncertainties. The potential shortfall in oil and gas could indeed lead to higher prices and rationing if not addressed by new investments. The transition to renewables and nuclear is ongoing but not without its challenges, and emerging technologies like green hydrogen and fusion energy are still developing and not yet ready to fill the gap at scale. The current trends suggest a complex and evolving energy landscape that warrants careful monitoring and responsive strategic planning.<span></span><br /></p>"
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} |