I see #consumerbrands moving towards a barbell distribution between no brand vs. ultra brand, and the middle between the two getting hollowed out. I think this is just starting to set itself up and will become more prominent in the 2025-2035 time frame. Here's why and a framework to help a brand decide which one they want to be.
The no brand competes on price and sheds as much about brand building as possible.
The ultra brand is loved by its customers who stake their identities on them and what they stand for.
We have seen #barbell distributions play out in many areas
1. Most famous is hollowing out of middle-income demographic, with greater divides in wealth where rich get richer and poor get poorer and the middle goes away.
2. Banking, airlines, energy, technology, telecom…bigger have gotten bigger and smaller have gotten smaller.
3. Power law of content distribution is fueled by algorithms that reinforce likes/views, leading to incredible but few popular hits, with a dramatic drop off and extremely long tail of everything else that fights for the crumbs (a barbell with one side missing, but a very long side).
What's driving the no brand vs ultra brand distribution?
1. Attention: There is just too much choice for consumers in terms of products and competition for their attention. Consumers need a compelling reason to buy, which comes down to stark contrasts in what companies offer.
2. #web3 : The next iteration of the Internet will provide super tools for brands to position themselves in the marketplace, which means they can become stronger brands with a captive customer base.
What the means for brands right now is that they have to pick who they want to be - they can't do it all.