What #trends will take off and which ones will fizzle? When is the right time to start paying attention to a trend?
Its really hard to nail down the timing of anything, but one tool I found helpful is the simple #productadoptioncurve.
If we can approximate a trend's consumer adoption according to this curve, that might tell us when to start paying attention.
When a trend reaches early adopter phase, it tends to accelerate to mass market:
> Analogy is melting ice - no apparent change 0 to 32 degrees, but at 32.6, it becomes water showing massive and transformative change.
> Analogy is a sand pile - keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche showing massive and transformative change.
Change happens slowly, then all of a sudden because it reaches tipping points where network effects take over. All of a sudden can
happen when trends reach the early adopters phase.
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