From 6fb9ec52a1e4e42e75fe62b9176c5176b7c4f9e7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: eddiesoehnel Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:20:04 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] Add Insights Hub six-month post export --- .gitignore | 2 + data/insights-hub/README.md | 9 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2122.json | 14 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2124.json | 14 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2127.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2128.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2129.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2130.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2131.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2132.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2133.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2134.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2135.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2136.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2137.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2138.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2139.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2140.json | 13 + data/insights-hub/hrecords/2141.json | 13 + 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100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5955.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5956.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5957.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5958.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5961.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/hrecords/5962.json create mode 100644 data/insights-hub/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.md create mode 100644 scripts/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.py diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b2b93b --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ + +data/insights-hub/files/ diff --git a/data/insights-hub/README.md b/data/insights-hub/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5d26b67 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +I maintain a 3-month snapshot from my Hub database—an object-oriented JSON system I built as the nerve center of my life. + +It captures my daily activities as a searchable memory layer, helping me surface signal, trends, and insights that get lost in day-to-day noise. + +What follows is a filtered view of what I’ve chosen to make public: what I’m learning, reading, thinking about, and working on and anything else I find interesting. I update this weekly with recent additions. + +Entries here: https://projects.eddiesoehnel.com/adminprojects/eddie-soehnel-portable-identity-document-OPEN/src/branch/main/eddie-soehnel-additional-signals.md + +The full historical dataset is published in this repo directory, with entries as individual JSON files is here: \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2122.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2122.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..830e3bc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2122.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2122", + "Date": "3/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Environment", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2122__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Power generation coal vs renewals with later passing the former in production

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2124.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2124.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3b2ec87 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2124.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2124", + "Date": "3/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Economics", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2124__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Value construction put-in-place. Reshoring

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2127.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2127.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c13d11a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2127.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2127", + "Date": "1/1/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The One Formula For Consumer Brand Success

", + "Notes": "

The One Formula For Consumer Brand Success

I've been building consumer brands since the late 1990's, giving me pretty good history and perspective on the major technology and #marketing paradigms that have transpired over that time period.

For the most part in that history, captive customers and brand staying power comes down to distribution and brand. You can develop a revolutionary product that sets you apart from competitors that captures attention, and see explosive growth, but eventually they will catch up. That is why distribution and brand are so important.

But distribution and brand are just rails. What in the end really creates a captive customer? I think the alpha comes down to experiences. While products solve problems and satisfy needs, it is better if that product can create an experience.

Why experiences? Because experiences create feelings which people remember. Positive feelings out of an experience creates greater emotional impact, which ends up tying the customer to the product and the brand behind it.

There is a saying: “People will forget what you said people will forget what you did but people will never forget how you made them feel”.

#web3 is the next technology and marketing paradigm, which offers brands better tools to into creating better experiences for their customers.

So, turning this on its head and simplifying: use web3 tools to create unique and better experiences for your customers, which ties them to your company, helping you build distribution and brand, which = captive customers (higher CLTV), which = lower marketing costs, which = staying power and profits.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2128.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2128.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97b616b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2128.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2128", + "Date": "1/2/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "MNTGE", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

NFTs attached to items is rapidly gaining traction, but what is interesting is that the vintage physical item that MNTGE ( https://www.mntge.io/) digitizes into an #nft can continue to accrue future experiences tracked on chain that are immutable which will add to its legacy, lore and possibly value.

", + "Notes": "

NFTs attached to items is rapidly gaining traction, but what is interesting is that the vintage physical item that MNTGE ( https://www.mntge.io/) digitizes into an #nft can continue to accrue future experiences tracked on chain that are immutable which will add to its legacy, lore and possibly value.

We've imagined this potential for #web3 for awhile now, but this is the first instance I have seen for using web3 infrastructure to track experiences tied to a physical item rather than a person.

The reason why this is important is because it helps prove the authenticity of items, where they have been, what previous owners have done with them, all of which increases their transactability online.

And transactions is not just limited to buying and selling anymore. With web3, it is a lot more, including:

borrow them

lend them out

shared ownership with others

fractional ownership with others

token ownership (Instead of owning a product, using a service or having an experience, consumers now can own, share, and trade the images of items, experiences, and services - paired up with a proof of ownership)

borrow against their value

lend out against their value

earn royalties from

insure them

prove ownership of

guard against counterfeits

get specific benefits as an owner from another user or entity

prove an action performed

help describe the owner, who they are, what they do, what they like (based on what they do and what they own).

can be dynamic, and not static, and accumulate features, qualities, and/or histories that change their value, utility or their story, all of which can be used as signaling to which others (people, technology apps, systems, metaverses) react.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2129.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2129.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..76ad1bf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2129.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2129", + "Date": "1/5/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Liquid Death", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "How do you sell the commodity of commodities, water, going from startup to over $130 million in annual revenue inside 5 years and 60K retail doors, and layer on #web3 to create captive customers?", + "Notes": "

How do you sell the commodity of commodities, water, going from startup to over $130 million in annual revenue inside 5 years and 60K retail doors, and layer on #web3 to create captive customers?

Creative cause-based marketing that grabs attention and personalizes the brand.

#liquiddeath moved into web3 this year with, thus far, a basic collectible and utility token (Murder Head Death Club), but which appears the brand may be leveraging to include owners in revenue-sharing. Even if not, the brand’s marketing that it has extended into the #nfts really fits well and resonates.

Total NFT volume as of this writing is $2.3 million, which includes original minting for probably a few hundred thousand in revenue to the brand, and the rest as trading volume, a portion of the secondary market revenues which the brand donates to its cause marketing to reduce plastic consumption.

Also interesting is that brand buys carbon offsets that equal 110% of the most conservative estimate of its web3 carbon generating activities.

LD is a food brand in a category that may not be able to create meaningful revenue off of web3, but it can certainly use web3 to create experiences for its customer base that help keep customers captive and increase the lifetime value of a customer, which over the long term can reduce marketing costs.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2130.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2130.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4d7ef48 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2130.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2130", + "Date": "1/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Starbucks", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#starbucks is unlocking #brand #marketing and potential revenue through a previously locked value stream. Here is how and why it is important.", + "Notes": "

#starbucks is unlocking #brand #marketing and potential revenue through a previously locked value stream. Here is how and why it is important.

The overhaul of their #loyaltyprogram to include #web3 means that holders can sell their perks.

Loyalty members can gain perks a variety of ways, but if they want to sell off those benefits to someone else, they can do that.

That opens up a secondary market for Starbucks loyalty perks. Rather than tying perks to a person, those perks are now independent and accrue to whoever currently owns the right to those perks.

And, perks can continue to accrue, making them more and more valuable as time goes on.

This is important because:

1. Starbucks is using web3 to let people do what they want with what they own. They are pushing more control to consumers, which makes them happier and strengthens the brand appeal. And it is more than just about selling off perks. Consumers can use the #nft backing the perk as part of social signaling to others. Will consumers use this to start creating their own associations with other loyalty NFT owners? Will Starbucks open up the potential for owners to do other things with their NFTs? The possibilities are endless.

2. For Starbucks, it is creating brand marketing for itself by productizing something of value that was previously locked. Unlocked and there is now another way for the Starbucks brand to be advertised through new transactions.

3. Will Starbucks create a new source of revenue by taking a royalty off of each sale, which it can do right now because this capability is part of web3 infrastructure? Will it instead allocate that revenue towards a charitable purpose, or some other purpose that directly benefits its loyalty members? The possibilities are endless.

Starbucks is a #food brand in a #consumergoods category that may not benefit as much via new meaningful revenue from web3 as other categories like outdoor and luxury.

For Starbucks, it is more about making its brand stronger with consumers by pushing control and abilities to consumers to do what they want.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2131.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2131.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1c4924a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2131.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2131", + "Date": "1/11/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Is #nike using #web3 to set stage for anyone to create sellable digital products using Nike assets, and could some of them lead to physical products?", + "Notes": "

Is #nike using #web3 to set stage for anyone to create sellable digital products using Nike assets, and could some of them lead to physical products?

Brand/manufacturer-to-consumer relationship has always been one way when it comes to products – brand sells to to consumer. Web3 can change that dynamic and Nike is leading., where it is using web3 to create infrastructure that allows anyone to create. Presumably, people will also be able to profit off of these creations, which is easy to build in using web3.

Consumers are already there, using #generativeai to create digital branded items: https://lnkd.in/gh9yEfzz.

Could creations become physical, either because they are popular and there is demand and/or could there be one-offs produced via #3dprinter / #additivemanufacturing manufacturing? Why not?

Nike will always create products in-house, but web3 opens the doors to all of us creating and selling Nike products.

Of all brands, Nike has the mojo and the resources to pull this off. But doing what Nike is doing is not out of reach for other brands, even right now, and the technology will get better fast so that all brands can model off of Nike to do similar things.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2132.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2132.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..29e5356 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2132.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2132", + "Date": "1/16/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#web3 is in the early adopter’s phase", + "Notes": "

#web3 is in the early adopter’s phase

Recent data (https://lnkd.in/gA2u9Atw) seems to indicate that 400 million people own #cryptocurrencies . Out of 5 billion global internet users, that is 8%, which in the adoption curve, means crypto overall is in the early adopters phase.

In the United States, data (https://lnkd.in/gz345_3G) suggests 15% crypto ownership.

What is its growth trajectory from here? When will it hit early majority? Late majority? We don’t know, but growth uptake tends to accelerate through the early adopters phase.

Consider the following major brand web3 activations:

1. The consumer product #luxury vertical has taken an aggressive lead with many leading brands pioneering web3 models for the rest of us to learn from and potentially use.

2. We are seeing mass market deployment of web3 from #nike via their new #swoosh platform after successfully testing web3 since 2021.

3. #starbucks is engaged in a massive overhaul of their loyalty program with 27+ million people, to include web3.

4. The #nfl is expanding web3 from 20 games in the 2021/2022 season to 100 games for the current season, out of their 272 total annual games (because web3 was a smashing success in last season’s testing).

5. #reddit saw 5+ million #nfts minted to over 4.25 million unique wallets for a simple collectible #nft , which is surprising in and of itself, but even more surprising is that as of this writing, it continues a relentless climb with more mints even in the depths of a bear market in which we find ourselves.

6. #instagram is rolling out functionality to let users create, display and sell NFTs on their platform

7. A huge point of friction with participating in web3 is converting fiat currencies to cryptocurrency. #paypal is integrating with Metamask, a popular crypto and NFT wallet, to make it easy to covert fiat into cryptocurrency and back again.

I think we could see early majority as early as next year, but more likely in the 2025 to 2027 time frame.

Most brands probably do not need to add web3 for customers at this time, unless their customers are young people or they want to expose their brand to young people now so that this demographic becomes customers when they get older. We know that brand awareness and perception and possibly #brandloyalty forms at early ages and can last a lifetime. This is a big reason why the luxury vertical is pushing hard into web3 and the #metaverse .

If brands sell durable products with higher price points, they may want to at least setup their inventory for digital pairing with NFTs, because those products produced and sold today could generate secondary market revenue years down the line.

At a minimum, all brands should be learning and testing it so they get comfortable with the paradigm and understand strategically how it fits for them in the future.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2133.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2133.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b15587 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2133.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2133", + "Date": "1/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "My take on #web1", + "Notes": "

My take on #web1

What is/was Web1?

* Pre-2000 Internet that was largely read only.

* Static web pages with content.

* PC-based only.

Benefits

* Simple, easy, secure.

Drawbacks

* Read-only so not very useful.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2134.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2134.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..91022af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2134.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2134", + "Date": "1/23/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "My take on #web2", + "Notes": "

My take on #web2

What is Web2?

*Current dominant state of Internet that is read and write: users can participate by not just reading but also writing content (post to social network, for example).

* PC, mobile, notebook - enabled by any Internet device with a screen UI

* Large technology companies create and manage services for users and also collect, amass and control data on users.

Benefits

*Easy, fast, cheap, amazing products and services unleashed to benefit users in a multitude of ways.

*Tipping point where Internet went mainstream, which means more users = more network effects of value delivered = more economies of scale for the services we get out of web2.

Drawbacks

* Companies collect, control and sell user personal information and their digital activities, power concentrated among a small number of companies over web2 platforms and services.

* Not that secure, easy to hack, spoof, and disseminate misinformation

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2135.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2135.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d00818 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2135.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2135", + "Date": "1/24/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "My take on #web3", + "Notes": "

My take on #web3

What is Web3?

* Users control their personal information and how it is shared.

* Financialization of all assets (also called the #tokenization of everything) that are accessible by users of Web3 (I define financialization here as using web3 protocols to create a representation of any asset so that it can be easily used in a transaction).

* Internet users own and control assets, whether digital or IRL or anything that has been financialized onto web3, and all the data about themselves and the actions they do.

* Ownership records are public (but they are anonymized so cannot tie to the owner’s identity).

* Records are permanent and unchangeable and cannot be deleted.

Benefits

* Data is more secure and #decentralized

* #decentralization means less likely for data to be taken down or compromised in some way

* Users can prove who they are and their data without having to share it, minimizing theft of personal information, and can control which information is shared and to whom.

* Assets, whether IRL or digital (which can include products, services, experiences, claim on cash flows) are represented online making it easier to:

** buy them

** sell them

** borrow them

** lend them out

** shared ownership with others

** fractional ownership with others

** token ownership (Instead of owning a product, using a service or having an experience, consumers now can own, share, and trade the images of items, experiences, and services - paired up with a proof of ownership)

** borrow against their value

** lend out against their value

** earn #royalties from

** insure them

** prove ownership of

** guard against counterfeits

** get specific benefits as an owner from another user or entity

prove an action performed

** help describe the owner, who they are, what they do, what they like (based on what they do and what they own).

can be dynamic, and not static, and accumulate features, qualities, and/or histories that change their value, utility or their story, all of which can be used as signaling to which others (people, technology apps, systems, metaverses) react.

** Assets are owned by the user and not custodied by a third party (like a bank), which means that the custodian owns the assets and the user just has an IOU on the asset, which means that if the custodian fails financially, the user may not get back their assets because they are simply a creditor with an IUO; and which means there is no custodian who can freeze use of the user’s assets.

Assets can be searched so we know which accounts/wallets own which assets (but not who owns them because wallets are anonymous represented by public keys only), which can make it easier for users to find like owners and communities, and companies to find potential customers based on the assets in a wallet/account.

Drawbacks

** Since users are in control of their data, it is their responsibility to manage and secure it.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2136.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2136.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c981000 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2136.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2136", + "Date": "1/25/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "How to duplicate yourself so you get more done.", + "Notes": "

How to duplicate yourself so you get more done.

We're seeing the base infrastructure being built and played out before our eyes.

* Conversational #artificialintelligence via #chatgpt

* Virtual influencers run by #ai

* VALL-E can imitate any voice with just a three-second sample

* Generative AI image generation that creates what we want to see

Then, feed AI all about me:

* Over a decade of blog and social media posts

* All of the extensive tools I have created over the years around my work: methodologies, processes, tools, spreadsheets, diagrams, resource lists, research, data, etc.

* Zoom meeting recordings and speech-to-text files that I save

* hundreds of thousands of photos I have taken which reflect what I like, where I have been, who is in my life

* my #google location history of where I have been the reflects more about me

* my #strava history of all my workouts and activities that reflect the activities I do

* my purchase history

I bet my AI will be able to impersonate me at a pretty good level and be able to communicate with others for basic stuff in place of me.

The AI can just report highlights of the conversation back to me.

Someone needs advice or have a questions around my expertise, let the AI handle it. And the AI will be able to adjust responses based on sentiment and emotion coming from the person.

The AI knows me, what I do, what I like, where I go...let it find people, places, things and information that would enhance my life based on who I am instead of me doing it. It can work 24/7 to do this, delighting me daily with new finds.

Let the AI create new products that do not exist just for me using using generative AI image and 3D graphics generation, which can then be #3dprinted

The AI knows I like sneakers and Nike, and it knows that Nike has opened up its IP for people like me to create what they want, so it creates Nike shoe variations for my approval, and I select the ones I like, and it sends it off to a #3dprinter with a portion of the cost going to Nike for using their IP.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2137.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2137.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a4ee52 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2137.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2137", + "Date": "1/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Enforcing secondary market royalties on used product sales for brand owners", + "Notes": "

Enforcing secondary market royalties on used product sales for brand owners

#web3 has emerged as a way to offer infrastructure that allows creators of a product to earn additional revenue when the product is sold to someone else on a #secondarymarket platform.

The problem is that #centralized secondary market platforms as well as #decentralized secondary market protocols have emerged that do away with secondary market revenue.

It is my opinion that creators should share in secondary market revenues, if they wish. But ultimately it should be up to the creators to decide.

Some, like artists or #brands that make collectible products, should probably share in upside for products that increase in value.

Other #consumerbrands may not care to book the revenue from secondary market sales but instead divert it to towards charitable purposes.

Or brands could use it to help provide incentives for reuse and recycling.

And still other brands may decide not to have any secondary market royalties.

But the point is to let creators and brands decide. One might argue that no, it is the owner of the #nft who should decide. My opinion is that it should be the original #ip owner that should decide, which is how it has always been with IP.

An artist who creates the art is the IP owner. A brand that designs and produces a product is the IP owner.

Tools are starting to emerge that help provide this freedom of choice for the IP owners, like Limit Break NFT tools recently released (https://lnkd.in/gPdMf-aQ) that enforce royalties at the individual token level, meaning each individual NFT can have its own programmable royalties. Regardless of which centralized platform or decentralized protocol is used to sell an NFT, royalties will be enforced.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2138.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2138.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dd6a66d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2138.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2138", + "Date": "1/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2138__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "#web2 vs #web3 Value Chains", + "Notes": "

#web2 vs #web3 Value Chains

Web3 is not a new channel, but new sets of technology protocols using existing channels, in order to be more secure, more decentralized and where users are more in control, which at the same time is also opening up the potential for creating new products and services and new ways to deliver them to users.

The ultimate use of web3 is to digitize everything so that everything can be transacted digitally, which means anywhere and as cheap and fast as possible, and coordinating all those transactions and their behavior between users and entities in ways that are secure, by mutual consent and trusted.

Web3 is about user wallets - or digital passports - that contain everything about the user - what they own, what they buy, what they do, where they go, and their identity - which is controlled by the users and stored on an immutable and tamper-proof #blockchain that is decentralized with less potential for being taken down.

By decentralizing user data into wallets that consumer’s control and create decentralized structures (blockchains) that manage our interactions with each other, we replace centralized monolithic aggregators that use our data for their gain (ie: Facebook) and that take a bigger cut from things we create or do (i.e Spotify or Uber, respectively).

There are a few ways to think about this via the graphics attached.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2139.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2139.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47e7c30 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2139.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2139", + "Date": "2/1/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A new #balancesheet line item for #consumerbrands - synthetic assets", + "Notes": "

A new #balancesheet line item for #consumerbrands - synthetic assets

#web2 = when sold a product it is no longer an asset.

#web3 = when sold a product is a synthetic asset that can still drive more revenue.

Brands think of products as assets until sold, then they no longer are treated as an asset.

But that is not true with web3. That product is a synthetic asset that can still earn a brand revenue:

* if secondary market revenue is built into the #NFT smart contract that is tied to the product so that it returns revenue back to the brand;

* through the NFT that gives the user more control to do what they want with the product, which can create experiences for the user that reflect back on the brand, which can translate to customer retention and word of mouth marketing.

Do this now:

For brands that sell durable products with higher price points (> $100), adjust production and inventory practices to be able to uniquely identify each item that rolls off the production line, and maintain those identifiers in a database.

A simple number or alphanumeric number would suffice. As long as it can be secured to the product where it is less likely to fall off or wear off.

In the future, if/when a brand adds web3 infrastructure for its customers, past products are already web3 capable through the unique identifiers that can be used to tie each of those products to an NFT.

For the future, research tech-based options that enhance a product's usability and experience for customers:

* #nfc chips last 50 years and are the leading tech;

* #qrcodes works as well;

* #rfid chips works too.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2140.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2140.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07e055e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2140.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2140", + "Date": "2/2/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#marketing and selling #consumergoods right now is really hard.", + "Notes": "

#marketing and selling #consumergoods right now is really hard.

Too many products without differentiation, crowded marketing, sales and distribution channels, COVID brought forward lots of demand that is now cooling and #inventory is rising.

The major paradigm shifts in marketing, sales and distribution came from the internet in the early 2000's as a new payment and distribution rail, followed by social media in the 2010's as a new marketing channel.

Both are now tired and everyone uses them and does the same thing. Hard to capture attention.

What's next that will upend things and breathe new life into product innovation, marketing, sales and distribution is #web3 .

Web3 might be bigger than the Internet and social media because these two where just new payment/distribution/marketing rails.

Web3 offers tools to create new products, reposition existing products, while also offering new rails for payment, distribution and marketing.

There are a lot more people online now

Web3 is not just people and things, but a massive unification of people, places, things, events and experiences, all through technology.

And it is interacting with, being impacted by and enhanced by exponential technologies:: (1) #artificialintelligence (2) augmented/virtual/extended realities (#ar #vr #xr ), (3) #broadband connections, (4) computing chips and #quantumcomputing (5) data storage, (6) #edgecomputing (7) #internetofthings , (8) materials science, (9) #robotics , (10) secure computing, (11) transportation and (12) #3dprinting / additive manufacturing.

Web3 right now is pretty bad - slow, clunky tech, with generally poor UX and UI. Most brands probably do not want to deploy web3 for their customers just yet, but they really need to learn it, test and experiment with it and figure out how it fits with their strategy.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2141.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2141.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d2d5bc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2141.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2141", + "Date": "2/3/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Tribeca Festival", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#tribeca Festival released special access passes in the form of #nfts What they did, which many other brands have done and are doing, is to bypass #cryptocurrency completely and let consumers use a credit card instead, and further, a web3 wallet is automatically created for the user to hold the pass.", + "Notes": "

#tribeca Festival released special access passes in the form of #nfts What they did, which many other brands have done and are doing, is to bypass #cryptocurrency completely and let consumers use a credit card instead, and further, a web3 wallet is automatically created for the user to hold the pass.

What a new web3 consumer has to do if the Tribeca Festival process did not exist:

1. Open cryptocurrency account at a centralized exchange, like Kraken Digital Asset Exchange;

2. Transfer #fiat from a regulated bank account to Kraken via ACH or wire if international;

3. Convert fiat to #ethereum cryptocurrency;

4. Download a hot wallet and create an account, like using #metamask

5. Transfer ETH from Kraken to the Metamask account;

6. Connect the Metamask wallet on Tribeca Festival’s website;

7. Make the purchase and get the NFT;

8. Transfer the NFT to a #hardwarewallet for safekeeping.

What a consumer does instead with Tribeca Festival:

1. Provide credit card credentials through a secure card interface at Tribeca Festival’s website, approve the purchase, receive the NFT in a wallet auto-created by Tribeca Festival that holds the NFT.

Talk about reducing friction. That is how consumers will use web3 for the foreseeable future.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2142.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2142.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..71fe756 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2142.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2142", + "Date": "2/3/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#web3 data is like looking at #creditcard statements + seeing what a person owns + what they use to own + what they have done...and it is all open for anyone to see.", + "Notes": "

#web3 data is like looking at #creditcard statements + seeing what a person owns + what they use to own + what they have done...and it is all open for anyone to see.

But it goes further than that. It is also like looking at an item - whether digital or physical - and seeing who owned it, when, where its been, what people have done with it, when they did something with it, and with whom they did it with.

All this data is possible and represented online via #blockchains which are really just open databases.

But blockchains are private by nature where associating this activity to a person is not a built in function.

It is early now, but in the future, as consumers use web3 more, this open data will presents opportunities for deep analysis that can be used to customize advertising, products and services for people

Sort of, kinda of, maybe, probably, for sure #dystopian ? Yes, that too.

#web3 #ux is really poor at present; until infrastructure providers improve it, here is what #consumerbrands are doing to make the experience much better.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2143.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2143.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7b2fc98 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2143.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2143", + "Date": "2/6/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2143__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "How do you retain customers (#customerretention) and keep them captive?", + "Notes": "

How do you retain customers (#customerretention) and keep them captive?

Let's borrow from Seth Godin (https://lnkd.in/gYMEy9Th), a long-time business writer that I read.

He said: \"A #brand is a set of expectations, memories, stories and relationships that, taken together, account for a customer's decision to choose one product or service over another\"

Lets unpack that from the context of a company's operations:

1. EXPECTATIONS revolve around product benefits and features (an R&D and product development function);

2. RELATIONSHIPS revolve around things like #customerservice , product support, etc. (a #marketing function);

2. MEMORIES AND STORIES revolve around the experiences users have using the product and around memorable marketing the company creates (a marketing function);

So where is the alpha for a brand, even if the brand has unique products that gives it a defensible competitive advantage?

Solving for EXPECTATIONS and RELATIONSHIPS as defined above is really just operations and formulas for making these two areas efficient and meeting customer expectations.

The alpha comes down to MEMORIES AND STORIES, or experiences.

Ty Haney, from her experience with Outdoor Voice apparel brand, says she gets 4x the value through high-touch experiential events compared to advertising.

While products solve problems and satisfy needs, it is better if that product can create an experience, because experiences create feelings which people remember. Positive feelings out of an experience creates greater emotional impact, which ends up tying the customer to the product and the brand behind it.

There is a saying: “People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did but people will never forget how you made them feel”.

To get alpha, #consumerbrands have to be more than just producing, marketing, distributing and selling products. They have to create positive experiences, not just for potential customers, but for product owners, in ways that reach each customer, which means their marketing is moving one-to-one which becomes unscalable.

In a #web2 world that is really hard to do, but in a #web3 world, that is possible because the paradigm is building infrastructure to allow brands to do unique, individualized things at scale.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2144.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2144.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..269278c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2144.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2144", + "Date": "2/7/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#nike vs StockX trial", + "Notes": "

#nike vs StockX trial

Nike’s lawsuit against StockX for NFTs around StockX Vault program, using Nike’s IP in StockX NFTs to ID physical shoes.

If Nike prevails, how would this affect a product owner /consumer creating their own NFT around a product they own even if they are not the creator/IP owner? If the goal in web3 is the ability to financialize anything, this could have a chilling effect on that.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2145.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2145.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8211700 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2145.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2145", + "Date": "2/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#supremecourt and #section230 of #cda", + "Notes": "

#supremecourt and #section230 of #cda

There is a case before the Supreme Court that will finally look at Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (CDA) that allowed “interactive” online platforms such as forums and read-write webpages to gain immunity from any content posted by users of the platform.

If the outcome of this case revokes or changes section 230, limiting free speech on platforms, that will not necessarily move people to decentralized web3 platforms that have no central authority.

As we have already seen in the Tornado cash sanctions and the Canadian governments trucker sanctions, governments will go after anyone remotely connected to a decentralized app.

We don't want hateful or harmful information or actions, but we also don't want centralized platforms or authorities to tread on people's liberty.

While on the surface it is a good argument for decentralized platforms, it does not mean they will be any better than centralized platforms.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2146.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2146.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dafbe0d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2146.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2146", + "Date": "2/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Hermes", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Hermès v Metabirkins #trial", + "Notes": "

Hermès v Metabirkins #trial

Hemes filed a claim that its #intellectualproperty was infringed by the artist who created a series of #nft artwork using potentially Hermes likeness and copyrights. The artist claims its art as creative commentary protected by the first amendment.

If Hermès win, this might be perceived as a win for those building #digitalassets and branded NFTs, as it would place significant value on digital goods. In other words, a metaverse-ready depiction of a handbag might be treated as valuable as a physical one (this is already happening).

On the other hand, a Metabirkins win would be a warning sign to brands to continue to file to protect their marks in the digital realm — even if they don’t have plans to enter the space. If you are a brand that is slow and has no plans to be in the digital space, how do you control someone taking your brand and putting it in a digital space?

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2147.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2147.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3ded4f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2147.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2147", + "Date": "2/9/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Porsche", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Learnings from #porsche recent entry in #web3 – the good, the bad, market expectations and the takeaway", + "Notes": "

Learnings from #porsche recent entry in #web3 – the good, the bad, market expectations and the takeaway

The Good:

* They sold 2363 NFTs;

* It was their first foray into web3 and was easy to do without many complexities behind the NFT or the process;

* They got a lot of learnings that they can, and are, building on.

The Bad:

* It was a vanilla collectible NFT that was circa 2021 and not at all interesting for 2023;

Market Expectations:

* There were some voices that said the mint price was too high, supply to large, and not enough benefits for owning the NFT;

* The original collection number was 7500, and Porsche only sold 2363 when it stopped the minting process, so it was a failure.

Takeaway:

It was a success because they sold products (NFTs in this case), got feedback, and can build on that.

Doing it the way they did leaves them open to many directions in which to go from here.

Right now, web3 is not about meeting market expectations as much as it is just getting out there, trying things, getting data, learning, adjusting, and repeating the process, over and over.

As long as a brand is not trying to consciously rug its user base and what the company tries does not irreparably hurt their brand, there are no failures.

If we’re in the future and look back, is the story here about how Porsche failed in its first NFT launch, or how they learned from it to create what its customer base wants in web3.

Given its the Porsche brand and the enduring legacy they want to protect, I think it will be the later, which is what we will remember.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2148.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2148.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e69f12c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2148.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2148", + "Date": "2/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "When #consumerbrands sell a product, the traditional idea is that their relationship with the product generally ends (other than support related to software updates, warranty/repairs and returns)", + "Notes": "

When #consumerbrands sell a product, the traditional idea is that their relationship with the product generally ends (other than support related to software updates, warranty/repairs and returns)

With #web3 , that is changing where brands get more insight into what consumers do with the products and further, brands can engage through the product with the consumer.

Here is an example in the marketplace happening now.

Sheep Inc. introduced the “Connected Dot” to their garments.

Items such as beanies and sweaters now have (removable) scannable #nfc chips sewn in.

Customers can scan these chips to track their garments provenance (eg. CO2 footprint, farm info), and see and track the sheep their wool came from.

It also has a Time Capsule feature, where owners can add images and videos related to the garment to the #blockchain

The last feature is made possible with web3 infrastructure. Not only is the media tied to the NFT that is linked to the product via the NFC chip, but it would be searchable online so that brand can see what consumers are doing and engage accordingly, if they wish (via air drops and wallet-to-wallet communication)

The lowest price product from this brand where I found this connected dot was a $90 wool beanie. NFC chips are cheap and last 50 years, so this use case opens up the potential for an product, including apparel, that is at least $90 or above, to be networked onto blockchains to allow for these kinds of interactivity between the product, the blockchain, the owner and the brand.

#phygital

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2149.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2149.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fa8a63f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2149.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2149", + "Date": "2/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "ARK's Big Ideas 2023 annual report is out, covering #exponential technologies and their growth. I pulled out the pieces on #artificialintelligence that are directly applicable to #consumerbrands and us personally with respect to our #careers and our personal competitive advantage for landing #jobs", + "Notes": "

ARK's Big Ideas 2023 annual report is out, covering #exponential technologies and their growth. I pulled out the pieces on #artificialintelligence that are directly applicable to #consumerbrands and us personally with respect to our #careers and our personal competitive advantage for landing #jobs

ARK Prediction: #ai should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030.

What that means for consumer brands:

* When it comes to creating media (text, images, video), #marketing copy, and software coding, people will be able to get a lot more done faster and better.

* With AI we will be able to target the right communication at the right time to each person.

* But the dramatic reductions in cost of using AI and the dramatic increases in availability and ease of use means everyone will use it, so in the end, there is no competitive advantage, so #distribution and #branding are still the only ways to differentiate and capture customers.

ARK Prediction: Cost To Train GPT-3 Level Performance - now at $450,000 - to go to $30 by 2030.

What that means for individuals and consumer brands:

* Everyone can have and train their own #chatpgt bot that can impersonate them, which means you can leverage yourself so that the bot can communicate and interact with people in place of you, find things and people for you because the bot knows you, do things in place of you, and do it all 24/7.

* Might this create a personal competitive career advantage for you, because you can walk in with your AI to an employer and demonstrate how you can be more productive and get more done over the person who does not have an AI?

* Its not the AI that will be the competitive advantage, its the data the AI needs to train itself. What data can you create/collect that is proprietary to you that you can give an AI which will give you a competitive advantage?

* To start, save all the following data that you create naturally on a daily basis: tweets, posts, zoom calls, exercise data, google location data, photos, videos, social graph, credit card data, emails, personal journals...

* AND, start getting out of your head into digital form all your business knowledge.

* Digital storage is cheap and creating media is easy, so start doing that today.

https://lnkd.in/gZTwgFVq

#career #data

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2150.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2150.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..849fb5b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2150.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2150", + "Date": "2/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The era of leveraging #ip to co-create, co-market and revenue share with consumers has officially begun.", + "Notes": "

The era of leveraging #ip to co-create, co-market and revenue share with consumers has officially begun.

#nike has opened up .SWOOSH Studio to allow people to submit creative for the chance to get selected to co-create virtual creations and earn royalties. Its a small step and pretty tightly controlled, as it should be.

We know that branding and distribution are pivotal to brand success, but these two are just rails to the consumer. How does a brand develop branding and get distribution?

What creates the glue between a consumer and a brand, which then leads to creating branding and distribution, is creating experiences, because experiences create feelings which people remember. Positive feelings out of an experience creates greater emotional impact, which ends up tying the customer to the product and the brand behind it.

We've seen this coming from Nike for a while and they are now rolling it out.

Nike will use #web3 infrastructure to manage all this.

Nike is an OG in web3 and has the mojo and the resources to do stuff like this, and exactly what we would expect from an #apparel category brand and technology leader.

But most of what Nike is doing is or will be available to any other brand via web3 infrastructure. Nike is a fantastic trailblazer to watch for the rest of us to learn and model for our own #consumerbrands

https://lnkd.in/guVUpcPe

#apparelbrand #intellectualproperty #brand

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2151.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2151.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e48bd27 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2151.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2151", + "Date": "2/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#loyaltyprograms are a massive expense and one has to question their value to #consumerbrands considering the breakage.", + "Notes": "

#loyaltyprograms are a massive expense and one has to question their value to #consumerbrands considering the breakage.

Loyalty program #breakage is the amount of points/rewards that never get spent, with a quick Google searched indicating 80% or more, which is very high.

If consumers are not using these rewards, they are not interacting with a brand. One has to ask why rewards offer so little value if they go unspent, and how can brands reverse this?

What could at least dramatically lower loyalty program costs is instead of doing something in house where a brand has to setup their own system, instead move to using the open and public infrastructure afforded by #web3.

Further, going open can make loyalty programs interoperable to coordinate benefits and collaboration with other brands.

It also sets up the potential for consumers to sell their loyalty rewards to someone else, which is what #Starbucks is allowing through its web3 shift for its loyalty program.

Another brand I read last week that has unveiled web3 loyalty rewards is Cha Cha Matcha, a small emerging and innovative brand in #foodandbeverage

And moving to web3 for a loyalty program could reduce breakage. Why not let consumers do what they want with their loyalty rewards? Let them sell to someone else who cares and would interact with the brand and use the rewards.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2152.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2152.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56e84a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2152.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2152", + "Date": "2/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Is a #royalty or #commission standard emerging for #retailers in #web3 ?", + "Notes": "

Is a #royalty or #commission standard emerging for #retailers in #web3 ?

‘Phygital’ Galeries Lafayette Champs-Élysées exhibition offers digital and made-to-order fashion #nfts .

People could buy some of the digital pieces as physical, which would come with a #qr code to show provenance and history, and are made to order. This is another example of identifying products uniquely, but this using a QR code.

But what is interesting is that in this web3 implementation. we see a royalty split to the marketplace or retailer. Common is for 10% to go to the creator. In this case, 10% of the profits are also going to the marketplace, or retailer, with 80% to the holder.

Maybe 10% is emerging as the royalty to retailers in web3.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2153.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2153.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c3a08d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2153.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2153", + "Date": "2/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Prada,Alo Yoga", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A few recent market intelligence finds to note.", + "Notes": "

A few recent market intelligence finds to note.

Alo Yoga

The brand rolls out digital twins to accompany its premium ski collection.

This implementation does not appear to have a unique identifier on each apparel item, like an #nfc chip. Since this was a luxury collection sold direct-to-consumer, the company knows the buyers and is sending them emails to mint generic #nft tied to the product collection.

The learnings here for other #consumerbrands ?

* The implementation is making it seamless to mint an NFT by providing a wallet to the customer automatically and setting up integrations where it is easy to verify ownership via tokengating on the company’s website.

* This is the route consumer brands are going to avoid the current poor #ux of #web3 .

#prada

The brand offers NFTs retroactively to all Timecapsule customers. Timecapsules are released monthly as new physical product drops, which started June 2022.

Customers who bought Timecapsule pieces before they were attached to NFTs now have the chance to purchase an NFT this time around, to join the Prada Crypted community.

The learnings here for other consumer brands?

* The physical products have a unique serial number to identify them, so this makes those products web3 enabled because they can now be attached to an NFT. This is the perfect example for how to web3-enable existing #inventory without having to get technical with NFC chips, QR codes and other similar approaches.

#phygital

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2154.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2154.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0d2e4a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2154.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2154", + "Date": "2/14/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Lacoste", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Here is a nice use case from the #lacoste brand using its general #Undw3 #nfts issued last year as event #tickets and why that is better than #web2 for #consumerbrands and their customers", + "Notes": "

Here is a nice use case from the #lacoste brand using its general #Undw3 #nfts issued last year as event #tickets and why that is better than #web2 for #consumerbrands and their customers

Rather than using a different platform to issues event tickets, Lacoste is using #Ethpass, which simple verifies #nft ownership and then creates a pass that is sent to the user's #applewallet or #googlewallet that acts like a ticket.

From here, when a Undw3 pass holder attends an event, Lacoste could send them an NFT called a #poap (proof of active participation), so the user can prove they attended the event. A POAP NFT is just an NFT, but the value here is that it is a method where the the user can accumulate history and experiences tied to the Lacoste brand.

Why would consumers want NFTs that prove their history and experiences with the brand? For social signaling, to get more benefits from the brand that rewards fans for their actions, as keepsakes, mementos.

And also this. What if the owner of these NFTs that they have accumulated no longer wants to be a fan of the brand? Instead, they just want to sell these actions, experiences and history in which they have accumulated to someone else who wants to buy their way into loyalty and continue to build new actions, experiences and history on top of what was already done.

This is where the interoperability of #web3 lets consumers do what they want with what they have. And in this case, Lacoste is getting a new fan that wants to interact with the brand while removing the former fan from its ecosystem in which the brand should not be spending time and effort on any longer.

The distinction here is web3 is focused on wallets that own the NFTs that demonstrate activity. Web2 is focused on people, where if a person no longer cares about the brand, the brand still continues to spend resources on them when they shouldn't. But how would the brand know that?

That famous #marketing truth uttered over 100 years ago: 'Half the money I spend on #advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.' web3 helps us understand which half is working and which is not.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2155.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2155.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12d517f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2155.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2155", + "Date": "2/15/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Hermes", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Outcome of the Hermès v Metabirkins #trial", + "Notes": "

Outcome of the Hermès v Metabirkins #trial

This is an important case to watch for how to characterize a companies #intellectualproperty in #web3

I referenced the #courtcase here in a previous post:

https://lnkd.in/g9rtCZRc

Hermès, a #luxury #consumerbrands won this round and Metabirkins says it will appeal.

This is a really good decision for web3 IP and hopefully will stand on appeal. This means that brands enjoy the same protections of their IP in web3 as they currently do everywhere else.

Quoting from Vogue Business: \"This decision is thus an endorsement of the value of digital goods and NFTs, suggesting that even digital representations of luxury goods have meaningful value even if they don’t perform the original function of, say, carrying one’s belongings or clothing one’s physical body. In this case, this communicates that a luxury handbag’s purpose is just as much about cultural status, whether that’s in the physical world or metaverse spaces.\"

Also quoting from Vogue Business, which I found interesting: \"The trial was ultimately evaluated under the so-called “Rogers test”, which refers to a 1989 case between Hollywood star Ginger Rogers and producer Alberto Grimaldi. The test essentially says that a trademark protection stands if the trademark has no artistic relevance to the underlying work, or if the work explicitly misleads as to the source or content of the work. Hermès and Rothschild disagreed on whether there was consumer confusion; a survey commissioned by Hermès found that 18.7 per cent of the NFT audience were confused, while 3.6 per cent of luxury handbag consumers were confused.\"

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2156.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2156.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8a43943 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2156.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2156", + "Date": "2/16/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#web3 storm clouds means it may be stuck in the current stagnant no-growth zone for awhile", + "Notes": "

#web3 storm clouds means it may be stuck in the current stagnant no-growth zone for awhile

My predictions for hitting U.S. mass market usage of web3 in specific verticals were as follows:

* Sports event #ticketing . Creating NFTs behind tickets to sports events is a no brainer and has good momentum now. I would estimate mass market use in 2-5 years. Leaders: NBA, NFL, MLB.

* #loyaltyprograms . 3-5 years. Leaders: Starbucks

* #gaming . 3-5 years. Leaders: Roblox, Epic Games

* #apparel and #luxury 4-10 years. Leaders: Nike, Adidas, luxury brands.

But, as of a few weeks ago, I am not so sure about these timelines and think they will be further out because of the following:

1. regulator activity that is not providing guidance allowing the industry in the U.S. to grow;

2. excessive blockchain transaction processing costs;

3. massive friction with current blockchain use;

4. and market conditions that are disincentivizing the paradigm’s development by consumer brands.


All of this will get worked out over time, but the regulatory activity is especially problematic and means we may not get clarity till at least 2025 and beyond, past the next election cycle.

My general near-term recommendations with web3 and #consumerbrands still hold, which are:

1. learn the paradigm and test and experiment with it;

2. collect primary and secondary data on customers with respect to their technology use to learn how web3 might fit for them;

3. and adjust production and inventory practices to be able to uniquely identify each item that rolls off a production line.

But do not deploy web3 in a meaningful way for consumers at this time.


" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2157.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2157.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b4bdf7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2157.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2157", + "Date": "2/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Chloe", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a great example of a #consumerbrand using technology to network products.", + "Notes": "

This is a great example of a #consumerbrand using technology to network products.

There is no #web3 in this implementation, but I have included comments on what gets enabled for the brand and the consumer if this implementation was web3 enabled.

Chloé, a #luxuryfashion brand, launched ‘instant resale’ using digital IDs on Vestiaire Collective.

This is a nice use case for using #nfc chips to identify each garment that contain the items manufacturing history and which can also be used to easily list the product for resale on the Vestiaire Collective platform.

It appears to be a very seamless, fast, convenient, frictionless experience to help encourage customers to sell used products.

There is no web3 in this process. The best way to implement web3 into this process that maximizes the capabilities of this emerging technology paradigm is to add a step where an #nft is created that is linked to the NFC chip of the item.

Here is just a few things that enabling this implementation with web3 could do for the brand and the product owner:

* With the NFT, a customer can sell on other web3 NFT marketplaces.

* The NFT could also be used to accumulate experiences, history and lore attached to the item submitted by the user.

* Brands can communicate to the owner via NFT, and they can create experiences/challenges/events through the NFT for the owner

* Secondary market royalties can be set via the smart contract so the brand gets revenue on resale.

* Usage can be tracked with respect to the NFT, what the owner does with it.

* Owners can search for other owners of NFTs and create their own tribes/groups/communities around the items or the brand.

* The NFT allows for social signaling where the owner can display the NFT across different platforms and apps.

All of the above is being done now, although it is still pretty clunky and manual.

And the above is by no means an exhaustive list. The creativity is nearly limitless for what brands and consumers can do when products are networked using web3

#phygital #digital #technology

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2158.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2158.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9c83a3f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2158.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2158", + "Date": "2/21/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Characteristics of #consumerbrands where #web3 may provide the most benefits", + "Notes": "

Characteristics of #consumerbrands where #web3 may provide the most benefits

Most #consumergoods companies may need to use web3 in some way because consumers may drive that requirement.

But in general, after following this new technology paradigm closely for the last 2 years, my conclusion is that those that have the best potential for MEANINGFUL new revenue and brand marketing using web3 include at least one or more of the following:

* Higher #price : brands with products that have higher price points;

* #Durable product: brands with longer shelf-life products – examples include a ski jacket, a bottle of wine, proof of participation at an event or location like a ticket stub (could be digital), a digital image, an article or piece of content;

* Desirable brand: brands that have a strong reputation and an engaged customer base.

Meaningful new revenue from the above list results primarily from the potential for secondary market royalties on used product sales that can flow back to the brand.

Meaningful brand marketing from the above list results primarily from durable products that have a long shelf life where consumers can do things with them and whose activities can be recorded on blockchains.

Based on these characteristics, strong verticals include luxury, fashion and apparel, exercise and fitness, household discretionary, outdoor products and active lifestyle, and pet

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2159.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2159.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3aa1780 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2159.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2159", + "Date": "2/22/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "We are at critical states with respect to our global resource depletion and #climatechange and have no choice but to implement technology solutions as quickly as possible to better manage our environment.", + "Notes": "

We are at critical states with respect to our global resource depletion and #climatechange and have no choice but to implement technology solutions as quickly as possible to better manage our environment.

Here are some ways I've identified where #web3 can be a part of this, with some already in use:

1. Web3 allows for #consumerbrands to capture #royalties from the resale of their products. This could help funnel future revenue to brands from used products so that they are less reliant on the manufacture and sale of new products. This will help reduce the global depletion of resources needed to produce new products and the #carbonfootprint associated with #manufacturing and selling new items.

2. Web3 allows for individual #consumergoods to be uniquely identified and recorded on #blockchains . Brands can use this data to create and communicate incentives to help consumers reuse, recycle or resell products to avoid landfills.

3. Web3 is spawning the growth of digital only products for #metaverse applications, where traditional physical-product brands are finding opportunities to take their brand digitally for new revenue that does not involve physical production. Digital drops are also a way to test products, where popular items could be sent to production but not before pre-selling them so that there is little to no unsold product left remaining.

4. As brands move more into digital the potential for semi-customized or customized products grows, which can motivate brands to #reshoring production to meet this demand, which may reduce the carbon footprint associated with transporting products.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2160.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2160.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a409d83 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2160.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2160", + "Date": "2/22/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#customerretention is the holy grail for #consumerbrands because it leads to lower #marketing costs for the same unit of revenue, which leads to more profits. Common averages are that it costs 5-7x less in marketing to retain a customer than to find a new one.", + "Notes": "

#customerretention is the holy grail for #consumerbrands because it leads to lower #marketing costs for the same unit of revenue, which leads to more profits. Common averages are that it costs 5-7x less in marketing to retain a customer than to find a new one.

sidenote: I ran the numbers once for one of my businesses and it came down to 5x for me.

But it's an unattainable fallacy for most brands and instead, leads to lots of spend in attempts to retain customers, which increases marketing costs and lowers profits.

The problem is that in #d2c , the retention efforts and costs are focused on the person by building data on them and #remarketing and #retargeting them to spend more.

If the customer leaves and no longer buys, the brand does not necessarily know that but keeps spending on remarketing and retargeting.

Further all the data and efforts spent to retain the customer are sunk costs and cannot be recovered.

An emerging concept is to focus remarketing and retention efforts on the wallet in which the customer retains ownership of the products.

That way, if the customer sells or transfers their ownership of the product away to another wallet (which could be a new owner or simply another wallet that the same owner possesses), the brand's remarketing and retargeting can follow to the new wallet.

This is how #web3 works in the context of wallets in which customers own #nfts that represent products, which are recorded on open, public #blockchains that are searchable, but are anonymous in that we don’t know the identity of the person who owns the product(s).

Because public blockchains are open and searchable, a brand knows the wallets that own the products but if the owner is adding experiences associated with that item, then that would flag a brand that this is a wallet to retarget and remarket.

In this landscape, individuals and their identity becomes less important, which means #privacy gets better and security improves because customer identifying data is not sitting in databases that are honey pots for hackers.

Is the above possible now. Yes and it is being done now, but it’s pretty rough and clunky, #spam through wallet communication is an already unbearable problem, #data attribution is hard and we can’t yet draw any meaningful best practices out of this.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2161.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2161.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..51c7660 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2161.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2161", + "Date": "2/23/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 consumer brand #innovator . #nike is a close second. Here’s an intro into 9dcc and why they really understand branding and how to use web3.", + "Notes": "

9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 consumer brand #innovator . #nike is a close second. Here’s an intro into 9dcc and why they really understand branding and how to use web3.

9dcc is less about creating and selling luxury apparel, but more so about creating #community and positive experiences for its product owners that not only ties them to the brand, but ties them to other brand owners.

While products solve problems and satisfy needs, it is better if that product can create an #experience , because experiences create feelings which people remember.

Positive feelings out of an experience creates greater emotional impact, which ends up tying the customer to the product and the brand behind it.

There is a saying: “People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did but people will never forget how you made them feel”.

9dcc knows this but where the leverage happens is not just creating experiences between the brand and the owner, but facilitating experiences amongst the product owners that then creates an even greater emotional connection back to the brand.

It is hard to scale personalized brand interaction between the brand and each owner (but #ai is coming and will help here), but if you can leverage others to create their own experiences via interactions around the brand, that is where #marketing compounds on itself.

I have no doubt from reading feedback that 9dcc’s products are high quality, but they are not innovative by themselves. The #innovation is coming through the creation of experiences that tie back to the brand.

There is little enduring #competitiveadvantage in #productinnovation or #operationalexcellence because eventually everyone catches up. Enduring competitive advantage comes from #distribution and #brand and you get these two when you can tie your customer to your brand via positive experiences that create the emotional connection, which reinforces brand and gets you distribution.

#Web3 is simply providing the tools to do this much better than #web2 . 9dcc clearly shows that they get this in spades.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2162.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2162.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a250ce4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2162.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2162", + "Date": "2/23/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "9dcc", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This post continues from the introduction to 9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 #consumerbrands #innovator", + "Notes": "

This post continues from the introduction to 9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 #consumerbrands #innovator

Read that introduction here: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_web3-luxuryfashion-apparelbrand-activity-7033794310647025664-F5yx

The infrastructure and general process for #web3 enabling 9dcc’s products includes the following:

1. take a physical product – their t-shirt for example;

3. embed an #nfc chip in it so it now becomes #phygital , or becomes a “networked product” that 9dcc trademarked, a term I like better than phygital;

4. and, allow the product owner to mint an NFT tied to each t-shirt identified uniquely via the NFC chip, which gets deposited into the consumer’s #web3 wallet.

This puts the product on-chain, which is a way to digitally represent the physical product and thereby opens up the ability for the product owners to do a multitude of things digitally that are limited with only the physical physical product, including:

* buy them;

* sell them;

* borrow them;

* lend them out;

* shared ownership with others;

* fractional ownership with others;

* social signaling: consumers use the NFT and the media that identifies it across different social platforms that indicates their ownership of the product;

* borrow against their value;

* lend out against their value;

* earn #royalties from;

* insure them;

* prove ownership of;

* guard against counterfeits;

* get specific benefits as an owner from another user or entity, like a loyalty program or entry to an event;

* The NFTs can be dynamic, and not static, and accumulate features, qualities, and/or histories that change their value, utility or their story, all of which can be used as signaling to which others (people, technology apps, systems, metaverses) react.

For the 9dcc brand, they have visibility into the wallets that own the NFTs and the actions that the owners engage in (see above) with respect to the NFT.

The brand can also communicate with the owners via future NFT #airdrops and wallet-to-wallet communications.

The brand can continue to consider the product it sold as a synthetic asset in which they have visibility into and where they can potentially influence what happens to that product and how it can continue to add value to the brand.

Side bar: 9dcc applied for a #trademark for “networked product\", a term I like much better than phygital. What if 9dcc open sources the licensing of this trademark so anyone can use it? Better yet, NFT it where full commercial rights to the term's use is granted if users mint the free NFT, which as the NFT gets widely minted, would reflect back on the brand in a clever on-chain branding of 9dcc. Web3 opens up tremendous capabilities to do simple and impactful things with any kind of asset you can think of, including #trademarks

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2163.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2163.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..42b79f4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2163.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2163", + "Date": "2/24/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "9dcc", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This post continues from the introduction to 9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 #consumerbrands #innovator Do these first in order:", + "Notes": "

This post continues from the introduction to 9dcc, a #web3 native #luxuryfashion #apparelbrand #startup is the leading web3 #consumerbrands #innovator Do these first in order:

=> Read that introduction here: https://lnkd.in/gPznSkPb

=> Read their web3 infrastructure and general process here: https://lnkd.in/gteQmrJp

9dcc is pioneering the use of networking #nfts where it #airdrops a bunch of NFTs to each existing owner so that owner can then use them IRL at events to hand out to others.

This is a way for others to network in real life around a brand and its products.

9dcc also gamifies this capability, incentivizing product owners to hand out as many networking NFTs as possible, which is not just a clever way for the brand to help product owners network and connect with others, but also is a #wordofmouth #marketing for the brand.

Sidenote: the handing out of NFTs actually happens where the recipient scans with their phone the NFC chip that is embedded on the front of the provider's clothing item, which initiates the process for minting the NFT that ends up in the recipients wallet.

Further, because NFTs are on public #blockchains the brand has visibility into how far and wide its networking NFTs travel.

Their next innovation just rolled out via personalized #poap (proof of active participation) NFT’s, where their product owners can personalize the image of the networking NFTs that they can then use to hand out to people at events.

Another way where 9dcc is extending the capabilities for its owners to network and interact.

Web3 innovation is only limited by our creativity, and there is no doubt that 9dcc probably has a ton more ideas it will implement. Watch this brand and support them in their efforts to create models for the rest of us to potentially mimic.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2164.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2164.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8614e15 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2164.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2164", + "Date": "2/27/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Here is PART 1 of some broad predictions with respect to the internet and its many enhancing exponential technologies with respect to consumer brands between now and the 2040s. As a brand owner and operator, here is how I think about the future so I can prepare for it", + "Notes": "

Here is PART 1 of some broad predictions with respect to the internet and its many enhancing exponential technologies with respect to consumer brands between now and the 2040s. As a brand owner and operator, here is how I think about the future so I can prepare for it

2008 to 2025-ish

We’re stuck in web2, which at present means we all use the same tools, do and say the same things in our marketing. There are few if any opportunity gaps from which to exploit in the current technology paradigm to give consumer brands differentiation to capture consumer’s attention.

2023 to 2035-ish

The emergence and mass market adoption of web3, which will breathe new life into consumer brand’s ability to create new products/services and enable new ways to market, distribute and sell that will give companies new ways to differentiate.

The web3 technology paradigm is a massive unification of people, places, things, events and experiences through technology exceeding anything we’ve seen in the past. It will be bigger than web1 and web2, and probably both combined.

We’ll see the most change to our connected lives than has ever happened before and will happen for the foreseeable future in this time frame. The reason is because while web3 is based on blockchain, is also interacting with, being impacted by and enhanced by other technologies, which include: (1) artificial intelligence, (2) augmented/virtual/extended realities (AR/VR/XR), (3)broadband connections, (4) computing chips and quantum computing, (5) data storage, (6) edge computing, (7) Internet of Things (Iot), (8) materials science, (9) robotics, (10) secure computing, (11) transportation and (12) 3D printing/additive manufacturing.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2166.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2166.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..803d884 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2166.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2166", + "Date": "3/1/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Using IP as a platform for #consumerbrands, what can brands do to leverage this concept?", + "Notes": "

Using IP as a platform for #consumerbrands, what can brands do to leverage this concept?

IP as platform is a nice description I found to define how consumer brands can turn over their #intellectualproperty to customers to let them create and profit from it.

This is not new by any stretch, as the gaming industry has used this for a long time.

We are seeing infrastructure development and early testing by Nike to leverage its IP for its customers. We would expect this from Nike because they have to resources and are a technology-forward brand.

For most other brands, it’s still too early because the web3 infrastructure to do this is not yet developed enough.

Here’s two things I recommend brands be doing now to leverage their IP as platform in the future:

Learn #web3 and start collecting ideas around how to use web3.

Become an ultra-brand with an engaged and loyal customer base that likes you and stakes their identity on who you are and what you stand for. Without this, consumers won’t want to leverage your IP to create products and profit-share with you.

I think the future for consumer brands is two options: (a) a no-brand or weak brand which will only exist if they can provide the cheapest product in their category; (b) an ultra-brand that can leverage IP as platform. The middle gets fully hollowed out.

Each brand needs to decide where they want to be and plan accordingly for how to get there. I estimate the age for IP as platform has begun with Nike, will start to gain traction in 2027-ish and achieve mainstream use in the 2030’s.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2167.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2167.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a825e88 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2167.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2167", + "Date": "3/2/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Cryptocurrency is the main factor in #web3 that adds massive and needless complexity and is slowing down innovation and adoption. I really wish we could get away from cryptocurrencies but at the moment, we cannot. If we want to use web3, we have to use crypto.", + "Notes": "

Cryptocurrency is the main factor in #web3 that adds massive and needless complexity and is slowing down innovation and adoption. I really wish we could get away from cryptocurrencies but at the moment, we cannot. If we want to use web3, we have to use crypto.

While #consumergoods companies will continue to shoulder the complexity and manage it on the back end, there are innovations that are taking crypto out of the equation for consumers to make it easier to use web3.

A few recent ones as follows:

Redeem is a startup working on connecting a consumer’s mobile phone number to their web3 wallet in order to make it easy to send and receive NFTs. The company has not released anything and it is unclear from their website how this will work.

Polygon, a major and market leading Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain has released standards for account abstraction, which enables users to utilize smart contracts as their accounts. It basically means that wallets can be programmed to do things, like:

* support for different kinds of account access, such as biometrics;

* recovery of accounts if private keys or seed phrases are lost (this is really significant);

* withdrawal limits on accounts (another significant improvement);

* withdrawal limits that are time-bound (for example, a gamer who wants to allow for transactions to take place in the next hour without having to approve each transaction every time it is prompted);

* performing multiple transactions at once rather than having to approve each transaction.

* auto paying (like subscriptions)

Polygon has also released a consumer identification product that is powered by zero-knowledge cryptography, which means that the consumer can prove who they are and what they own without revealing the details that substantiate that proof.

Think of every time you go to a bank or a doctors office and they request to see a drivers license; with ZK proofs, you can prove who you are without them seeing it (or in case of doctors, copying it).

Consumer IDs that are decentralized and powered by ZK proofs are really needed to advance web3 so this is an important, although early first step by a the market-leading blockchain.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2168.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2168.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..021e6a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2168.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2168", + "Date": "3/3/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Pearl Izumi", + "File": "", + "Image": "2168__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Here’s a simple idea for a #consumerbrand to test web3 that popped up from a somewhat vintage ski hat I am wearing.", + "Notes": "

Here’s a simple idea for a #consumerbrand to test web3 that popped up from a somewhat vintage ski hat I am wearing.

I purchased this PEARL iZUMi black ski hat in 1994. I use it regularly and it has really stood the test of time. I will never get rid of it or stop using it because there are a lot of memories attached to it and I will repair it as needed to continue its useful life.

Pearl Izumi is a long-time iconic brand and I am sure there are a lot of people like me with old gear. The company can spin up a simple #web3 NFT minting solution on their website that they hide from Google search, contact a select group of customers, email subscribers or social followers and invite them to mint photos of old gear.

This is a cheap, fast, easy, targeted, relatively non-public method to test web3 with the existing customer and fan base. Basic goals are to test response, see what people think and do, get people submitting images via NFTs of old gear (which the company can reuse in other market channels and tactics), and see where it goes.

There’s an untold number of ways where the company can take this depending upon response and where there might be traction. The goal is not to succeed, but to test web3 and see what works for the brand.

Web3 offers so many possibilities that each brand can craft their own unique strategy around the technology paradigm that can help them stand out.

Maybe Pearl iZumi’s is about vintage gear, that expands into secondary markets for resale, and/or web3-enabled social interaction between and amongst customers and the brand around vintage gear.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2169.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2169.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..81e6e61 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2169.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2169", + "Date": "3/6/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A big difference between #web2 and #web3 from the consumer's perspective is who bears the costs for using the paradigm.", + "Notes": "

A big difference between #web2 and #web3 from the consumer's perspective is who bears the costs for using the paradigm.

Web2 is awesome because it gave us easy, fast, mostly free, and amazing products and services. In exchange, many of the providers of these products and services collected data on us and monetized that data to target us with advertising. It has been a fantastic deal overall.

Web3 however may not be that. On the front end, #consumerbrands can cover the costs for initial transactions around #NFTs, but once a consumer owns it in their wallet, any costs associated with what they do with it from there is up to them.

Maybe there will be functionality in the future where brands could cover these costs, but I don't see anything at present.

As a result, costs have to be exceedingly cheap for consumers to really use web3.

Right now, web3 costs are way to expensive.

Polygon Labs, which has emerged as the layer 2 blockchain for Ethereum for consumer brands, has daily average transaction fees this year running anywhere from slightly less than one U.S. cent to ten U.S. cents.

For web3 to really work for brands and consumers and gain widespread adoption, costs need be more like one hundredth of a cent. Then it gets competitive with costs for web2 functions, like sending an email.

Assuming we will use Ethereum and its layer 2's, like Polygon, which are good, solid and preferred choices for consumer brands to use, and I don't see that changing, there is Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4844, which is an upgrade on Ethereum that will reduce the cost of layer 2's like Polygon by a factor ten to hundred. This EIP looks to be implemented in 2024.


Hopefully we will see costs drop to by a factor of a hundred, or more.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2170.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2170.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..32ea724 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2170.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2170", + "Date": "3/7/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Before the internet, we had more #brandmarketing and much less direct response marketing.", + "Notes": "

Before the internet, we had more #brandmarketing and much less direct response marketing.

Web1 and especially web2 gave us a golden age for direct response marketing with the data collection by the big platforms that allowed us to target.

As web2 progressed the pendulum started swinging towards brand marketing via content marketing.

Then we started seeing data privacy concerns, followed by Apple's bombshell data privacy changes that made data collection an opt-in.

This has really sunk direct response and ROAS. Back when results of 3+ were normal, now we can't even get to breakeven.

I had someone pitch me recently on boosting ROAS from .4 to 2; that is a non-starter since breakeven ROAS for consumer product companies is around 2.

And consumers are wise to direct response tactics and prefer not to be sold, but instead, #storytelling be entertained and inspired.

Where web2 was built for direct marketing, we're seeing that #web3 is ideal for brand marketing. So as the pendulum swings back, #consumerbrands now have a whole new set of tools in web3 to engage in brand marketing.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2171.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2171.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0b6e76d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2171.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2171", + "Date": "3/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is part 1 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.", + "Notes": "

This is part 1 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.

Web3 is different from web2 and requires new models and ways of thinking. But the best way to do this is in context of existing web2 models we already know very well and use.

This makes web3 a lot easier to understand because we can see what we might be replacing in web2 for web3, or what we will be adding that is new.

A very common framework marketers use in web2 is the acquire and ascension marketing framework

In this framework, we engage in marketing to create awareness, tactics to motivate conversion and processes to close the sale via cart #funnels (or packaging if on a retail shelf).

Once a customer has been acquired, we then engage in tactics to retain them as a customer (because it's a lot cheaper to keep a customer and increase their #customerlifetimevalue than to acquire a new one), collect more data on them and ascend them up a value chain where they are purchasing more products/services from us.

The attached image captures this framework and all its pieces. A link to the graphic is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/Web2AcquireAscendMarketingFramework

This framework is now old and we all use it doing the same things. It is hard to find opportunity gaps from which to differentiate and capture customers. Couple that with increased difficulties the last few years in targeting ads and this framework does not work as well.

Another very important failing of this framework is that the backend retention, data collection and ascension efforts are stranded when the customer moves on.

It is hard for brands to retain customers because most product owners drop off the ascension chain at some point and move to other brands. Even superfans eventually move on. Very few brands can command loyalty for long periods of time.

In this case, all the data, history, and effort that went into trying to retain and/or ascend the customer up the value chain is stranded and mostly useless.

Enter web3, where in part 2 of this series we will overlay web3 onto this same framework to see what we might replace in web2 and what new things offered by web3 we can do to improve marketing, conversion, retention, data collection and ascension.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2172.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2172.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..95a2cfd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2172.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2172", + "Date": "3/9/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is part 2 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.


", + "Notes": "

This is part 2 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.

The attached image overlays web3 onto the common web2 acquire and ascension marketing framework profiled in part 1. Using this model, we can see what web3 tactics we might use in place of web2 and entirely new tactics we might be adding with web3.

A link to the graphic is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/Web3AcquireAscendMarketingFramework

In web3, we are moving away from collecting and associating data on people, because as was written in part 1, people fall away from brands and the time, money and effort to retain and/or ascend them is stranded and almost useless.

This is a sunk cost that cannot be leveraged to a new customer.

In web3, we are moving towards collecting and associating data to a wallet, because it is the wallet that will own the products, not the consumer.

If the consumer transfers that product out of the wallet to another wallet (either they sold the product, or they sent it to another wallet they own for safekeeping, or they gave it to someone else) , we can see that because the blockchain is open.

Because web3 is inherently anonymous, where wallets are not tied to people, we care less about knowing the person and instead, knowing which wallet owns the product.

In this case, all the time, money and effort we spent to retain and ascend that wallet has now been transferred to another wallet, so that visibility is still there.

We can also argue that the value we put into retaining and ascending that wallet is still there. If the wallet sold the product and anything else it attained in its journey with the previous wallet, presumably there is value there in which a new wallet is willing to pay, so that new wallet will be more inclined to step into the same kind of relationship with the product and the brand as the previous wallet, which means our work to retain and ascend the previous wallet is still there.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2173.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2173.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c5888e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2173.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2173", + "Date": "3/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is part 3 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.


", + "Notes": "

This is part 3 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.

Once we have an idea for the web3 tactics that we might use - gleaned from the schematic in part 2 that overlays web3 onto the common web2 acquire and ascension marketing framework, which is profiled in part 1 - the next step is developing the art around the NFTs that will be used in web3 tactics.

Web3 is really only 3 key pieces of infrastructure:

1. an open #blockchain , which is a type of database, in which anyone can write to and search against;

2. NFT's, or non-fungible tokens, which is a technology standard to define anything and everything in a digitally format - think of the #nft protocol as a wrapper around anything so that it looks the same to a computer and online - which get recorded on the blockchain;

3. smart contracts, which are just containers of code that people and companies create that gets recorded to the blockchain which do things.

While the NFT is code, it is represented visually through media - images, video, audio - but usually images.

NFT's can be unique - called 1-to-1, or generic, which is many NFTs (each one still unique with its own token on the blockchain) with the same art.

We want our NFTs to have visual appeal, which means picking art that our customers would find visually appealing. That could be art we create through media we capture, using artificial intelligence, or which we collaborate with others to create, like artists.

Web3 has come to expect good art to represent NFTs, so it is important to develop a strategy around the art that is not just good, but helps a brand stand out as part of their brand appeal.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2174.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2174.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..938ccce --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2174.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2174", + "Date": "2/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The first is what we call programmable tokens (tokens are NFTs). These are dynamic NFTs, which through programing, scripts and logic built into the individual #nft tokens, can do an infinite number of things inside the wallet in which they are contained.

", + "Notes": "

This is part 4 of 4 that offers a model for #consumerbrands to use for developing #web3 strategy and tactics.

Once we've selected major tactics for web3 and developed a strategy around good art for #nfts (because web3 for consumer brands is all about NFTs), we want to finish with the following:

1. develop ideas and tactics around programming NFTs so that they can do creative things that help differentiate our brand;

2. develop ideas and tactics around programming NFTs that interact with programs that run on the the consumer wallet.

The first is what we call programmable tokens (tokens are NFTs). These are dynamic NFTs, which through programing, scripts and logic built into the individual #nft tokens, can do an infinite number of things inside the wallet in which they are contained.

Think…what would I want the customer to be able to do with my NFT inside their wallet with the push of a button? Be creative, because it can probably be anything.

Examples include: (a) create a new NFT; (b) claim an offer we sent to the consumer; (c) share the NFT with someone else; (d) attach experiences to the NFT; (e) transform the NFT to different image/media; (f) update the NFT with information, like the weather; (g) lend the NFT to someone else; (h) borrow against the NFT; etc.

The second is called account abstraction, where the web3 consumer wallet can be dynamic through programing, scripts and logic that can interact with the NFT assets in an infinite number of ways.

This is new functionality released March 2023 and it is too early for brands to capitalize on this because its needs to be built, likely by wallet developers (but some brands are developing their own wallets).

Some examples for account abstraction functionality include: (a) recurring payments; (b) recover wallet if lost or stolen; (c) sign in to wallet with biometric security; (d) set spending limits; (e) set use of wallet by time (next hour, between 6-9 pm on Saturday nights, etc); (f) share wallet with someone else; (g) allow/disallow wallet-to-wallet communications by certain other people/companies; (h) allow/disallow air drops; (i) delete NFTs without interacting with them (because current protocols require interacting with NFTs to delete them, which can be a security hazard if the NFT is malware); etc.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2175.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2175.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9512817 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2175.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2175", + "Date": "3/14/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a recent marketplace example on the #web3 equivalent of #emailmarketing, but which is much more dynamic, targeted, personalized and relevant, via networked products using #nfc chips.", + "Notes": "

This is a recent marketplace example on the #web3 equivalent of #emailmarketing, but which is much more dynamic, targeted, personalized and relevant, via networked products using #nfc chips.

CULT&RAIN Inc. is a web3 native #consumergoods company with networked products using NFC chips tied to the corresponding digital NFT.

Besides holder benefits, the brand is pursuing one-to-one communication via the NFC chip, replacing email. It appears there is an app that presumably connects via phone to the NFC chip to reveal the communications. The app and platform is LTD.inc, an NFT creation and purchase platform.

This quote from the brand's CMO Andy Griffiths is interesting: “This is marketing through the product, as opposed to the channel, effectively replacing emails. Once you have mass adoption of NFC chips, people won’t need to receive an email; you’ll just get notifications through your products.”

Marketing via email is to the person, whereas here it is to the product, which the person owns, and if the person sells or transfers the product, the marketing goes along with it.

In the future, this marketing will be also be one-to-one at scale using artificial intelligence.

Another significant difference between web2 email marketing and web3 NFT notifications is that in web2, marketing is about collecting data on and marketing to identifiable people. This does not work great because it is difficult to collect enough reliable and current data on people to be able to make data-driven decisions about marketing offers.

In web3, marketing is to the NFT, because if that NFT is transferred to another wallet (it could have been sold, lent out or just sent to another wallet for safekeeping), the marketing follows it.

If marketing stayed with the original owner, then that marketing is useless because they may no longer own the NFT.

Further, if that NFT acquires history via other NFTs attached to it, or experiences the current owner attaches to it, that is the data that could be more reliable from which to target marketing and communications.



" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2176.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2176.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d3f0ed4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2176.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2176", + "Date": "3/15/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Some thoughts on Social and Interest Graphs (Facebook and Tik, Tok, respectively) and with #web3 , Ownership and Experience Graphs", + "Notes": "

Some thoughts on Social and Interest Graphs (Facebook and Tik, Tok, respectively) and with #web3 , Ownership and Experience Graphs

I have never seen the terms Ownership and Experience Graphs and came up with them myself to help me characterize web3 in context of the other graphs we see in web2 applications.

A graph is defined as a visible representation of the interconnection of relationships.

Facebook/Instagram pioneered the Social Graph.

Tik Tok pioneered the Interest Graph (more powerful that social graph because it is based on our interests, not the people in which we are connected.

I think web3 is enabling the Ownership Graph and Experience Graph, which help further define who we are based on what we own and what we do.

These new graphs are enabled by web3 because:

1. we have open #blockchains where this information on people is publicly displayed (but anonymous because their identity is not revealed);

2. we have the #nft technology protocol which defines anything and everything in a common digitally format; think of the NFT protocol as a wrapper around anything so that it looks the same to a computer and online.

In web3, we will be creating NFTs of what we own as well as documenting events and experiences.

Put this on public chains and by themselves they tell a story about each of us.

But that data stream can become far richer when we can associate NFTs across all our graphs.

For example:

1. I bought a pair of skis, for which I got a connected NFT to represent them on-chain;

2. I skied at a resort, for which the ski area gave me an NFT for skiing that day on my connected skis;

3. I went with friends for which we forged an NFT that each of us received around our experience.

Web3 lets consumers combine social, interest, ownership and experience graphs to create a rich tapestry of their lives...

... and lets consumer brands search and find that data to help it create new product/services and market, distribute and sell in new ways...

... all because web3 is open and not in closed, proprietary systems, which define web2 and companies like Facebook and Tik Tok.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2177.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2177.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..da37933 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2177.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2177", + "Date": "3/16/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Some thoughts on the future time period when #consumerbrands should deploy #web3.", + "Notes": "

Some thoughts on the future time period when #consumerbrands should deploy #web3.

For most brands, web3 is still too early with immature technology and low consumer uptake. While there's a ton of stuff to track in web3, I've really stripped my watchlist down to three key things that really have to happen before brands deploy web3 for their customers.

1. Improve web3 wallet UX and UI for consumers. This is now possible with account abstraction on Ethereum (released March 2023), so look for web3 wallets to start incorporating this standard.

2. Synthetically remove cryptocurrency from the equation for consumers to reduce complexity in them dealing with cryptocurrency. This is now possible with account abstraction (released March 2023), so look for web3 wallets to start in incorporating this standard. But it won’t help consumer brands, who will have to be the ones to manage the cryptocurrency transactions for consumers on the back end. Some are already doing this.

3. Falling #blockchain costs. It is still way to expensive on the ETH and MATIC blockchains (recommended and preferred by consumer brands), but infrastructure improvements should see costs on the ETH L2 blockchains (like MATIC) drop tens to hundreds from where they are now, which hopefully will get costs to ~ one hundredths of a cent for a blockchain transaction, which is about the cost to send an email.

If we start to see these improvements filter in by 2024, I would tentatively recommend that brands deploy web3 on or after second half 2024.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2178.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2178.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ae7eb5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2178.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2178", + "Date": "3/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Sol3mates", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is an upcoming #web3 deployment by an apparel brand that seems to point to an emerging common model for #consumerbrands in web3 that fuses physical, digital and applications for the #metaverse .", + "Notes": "

This is an upcoming #web3 deployment by an apparel brand that seems to point to an emerging common model for #consumerbrands in web3 that fuses physical, digital and applications for the #metaverse .

The brand is Sol3mates, which is the Chalhoub Group’s first Web3 native brand. It will drop its first sneaker designed by artist Kacimi Latamène. The drop date will be announced on 12 April, along with more information about the mechanics and perks.

The parts here: (1) product is a physical shoe with an NFC chip (2) that I presume is linked to the NFT that networks/connects the product online, (3) plus a 3D Decentraland wearable of the items.

No other details yet, but this is a pretty solid way to create a product with multiple revenue streams for the brand and provides maximum utility for the consumer.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2179.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2179.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1195e43 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2179.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2179", + "Date": "3/21/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "artificial intelligence", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The amazing developments with #chatgpt keep coming at a lightning-fast pace.", + "Notes": "

The amazing developments with #chatgpt keep coming at a lightning-fast pace.

Just announced that companies can create plugins allowing ChatGPT to interface with their systems to obtain real-time information.

This is making ChaptGPT the operating system, shifting the Internet interface from screen/keyboard to screen/voice. ChaptGPT provides the voice/speech, while companies provide their data. ChaptGPT sticks with what it is good at, which is language models, and let companies plug in their real-time information so it does not have to go searching for it.

I foresee that #consumerbrands will be plugging in their product listings so that consumers can access via voice.

This is really bad for Google. It's hard to believe with their capabilities in AI and their data that they are allowing this to happen. Either they move very quickly to catch up or in a matter of months, they will never recover.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2180.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2180.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..78ba96e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2180.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2180", + "Date": "3/22/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Seems to me that #consumerbrands #contentmarketing strategies and tactics will be severely disrupted. Here is why and what they can do to sidestep this pain.", + "Notes": "

Seems to me that #consumerbrands #contentmarketing strategies and tactics will be severely disrupted. Here is why and what they can do to sidestep this pain.

With #ai and #ugc , there will be so much content created that it will overwhelm and it will be hard to capture attention with it.

Businesses that create content for revenue (media companies) and businesses that create content for content marketing may be seriously disrupted.

Why do a search and read content when you can ask AI and it will create the content you want in real-time?

Take a product review: why do a search, (1) clicking to read different links and articles that we all know may not be trustworthy because search results are all gamed using SEO, (2) subjected to ads, popups, overlays, etc when trying to read the content?

Just ask ChatGPT to give me a review; fast, quick and aggregates all other product reviews.

Take entertainment: why go searching across all the different platforms? Just ask AI to create a story based on what I want to see (romcom, documentary, action, scifi), with these actors (because they will all be creating AI models of themselves), with the score from these musicians) because they will all be creating AI models of their voice).

For #consumerbrands, If traditional content marketing no longer works, they will have to shift to doing the following:

(1) create unique experiences to capture customer attention...#experiencemarketing ;

(2) Adopt #IPAsPlatform, democratizing the brands IP allowing consumers to co-create, co-market and co-profit.

More on IP As Platform from the link in the comments.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2181.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2181.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a2bb3b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2181.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2181", + "Date": "3/27/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#web3 wallets are too insecure at present and if I hold all my #nfts in one account, the risk to getting drained is too high. Might an solution emerge through #accountabstraction ? Here's my thoughts.", + "Notes": "

#web3 wallets are too insecure at present and if I hold all my #nfts in one account, the risk to getting drained is too high. Might an solution emerge through #accountabstraction ? Here's my thoughts.

I consider myself pretty web3 wallet savvy but was rugged once because I clicked the wrong link. The loss was really low because as a practice, I send all my NFTs and assets to cold wallet accounts that I never use to transact. I use a transaction account to do my buying and selling via a hot wallet and only keep in what I need to execute the transaction.

But this process I use offers a very poor user experience, adds costs, friction, time. Plus, what makes the UX much worse is that to interact with services that look into my wallet to confirm I own an NFT, I have to give them access to my holding account, which I am loath to do because it presents a security risk.

The better thing is some sort of account proxy using #zk proofs that will synthetically allow me to represent what I own via my transaction account.

I have seen proposals for this but nothing emerged yet for mainstream use.

Perhaps via #accountabstraction we will see this being implemented.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2182.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2182.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bd8a615 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2182.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2182", + "Date": "3/28/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Cult & Rain", + "File": "", + "Image": "2182__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This came from CULT&RAIN Inc. across my twitter feed. This is a #web3 #startup #apparel brand.", + "Notes": "

This came from CULT&RAIN Inc. across my twitter feed. This is a #web3 #startup #apparel brand.

Really nice tactic to massively reduce the friction for consumers to purchase their recent #phygital / #connectedproducts drop No dealing crypto - ACH/wire, centralized exchanges, conversion, gas fees.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2183.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2183.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..36c8779 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2183.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2183", + "Date": "3/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Economics", + "Retail", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2183__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

#retail #inflation Ouch.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2194.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2194.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4fa0991 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2194.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2194", + "Date": "4/3/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Web3 adoption is still very early, so the big question for #consumerbrands is when should we deploy the technology paradigm for our customers? It's still generally too early for most brands, but we watch for tipping points when the paradigm will go mass market.", + "Notes": "

Web3 adoption is still very early, so the big question for #consumerbrands is when should we deploy the technology paradigm for our customers? It's still generally too early for most brands, but we watch for tipping points when the paradigm will go mass market.

Ticketing (events and travel) continues its status as a #web3 leader and is a sector to watch for tipping points. Here's two recent deployments in concert tickets and air travel.

Ticketmaster has enabled tokengated ticket sales where existing NFT holders of a band can use the NFT to give them early access to ticket event sales.

They have done this for a specific artist (Avenged Sevenfold) who is already strong in web3 with their fans, so as more artists adopt web3, Ticketmaster can roll out this template for them.

But a real tipping point for mass market would be when Ticketmaster offers corresponding NFTs with every ticket sold. I think that is a ways off.

In the travel sector, Flybondi.com now issues every ticket as an NFT, which allows the airline to earn 2% revenue on tickets that are resold on the secondary market. The tickets and NFTs that represent them can be bought in advance without defined travel plans.

This functionality allows consumers more control to do what they want with what they own - in this case, buy tickets without firm travel plans and resell them if they do not plan to use them.

But why I find a negative is that once travel on the ticket is completed, the NFT appears to be burned. Why not convert the NFT to one that can be kept by the customer as proof of travel that they can store in their wallet to help document their activities? Why not combine it with unique art that could make it a collectible?

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2197.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2197.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..81da160 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2197.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2197", + "Date": "4/4/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There are three really key #web3 infrastructure developments that have to happen for the paradigm to become useful at a #minimumviableproduct (MVP) level, which I covered in this post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_consumerbrands-web3-blockchain-activity-7043952650807087105-1pWY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop", + "Notes": "

There are three really key #web3 infrastructure developments that have to happen for the paradigm to become useful at a #minimumviableproduct (MVP) level, which I covered in this post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_consumerbrands-web3-blockchain-activity-7043952650807087105-1pWY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

I am cautiously optimistic we will see these by 2024, which means I am cautiously recommending #consumerbrands deploy web3 for their customer on or after 2H 2024. The real unknown at present is regulatory issues which could blow up my timeline, which are very much up in the air.

After MVP, Two other really key infrastructure improvements that need to happen for web3 to reach its highest and best use are #decentralizedidentity and #nft asset verification.

Both are coming along but I think we may be a ways off with decentralized IDs. We need this for many reasons, but a big one is to help control spam and misinformation, where we can tie user generated content (UGC) to an ID that verifies it came from a person and not a bot.

NFT asset verification is coming along and it appears that Polygon Labs (the 800 pound L2 gorilla) has adopted a standard through the Wakweli Protocol that offers a process for verifying that NFTs are real . NFTs are the core infrastructure to identify any asset on-chain, so a process verifying their authenticity is pretty important.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2200.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2200.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5fd33e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2200.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2200", + "Date": "4/5/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Another experience marketing tactic coming from one of my favorite #web3 native #startup #apparel brands, 9dcc.", + "Notes": "Another experience marketing tactic coming from one of my favorite #web3 native #startup #apparel brands, 9dcc.


Where web2 used direct response marketing, social marketing, content marketing, influencer marketing...all which have become less effective, #consumerbrands using web3 infrastructure are pushing into experience marketing to help engage with their customers and community and create a stronger emotional connection, tying them to the brand.

This tactic is a game product owners can play where apparently you can scan the NFC chip on an apparel item to get linked to play, with gamification/competition added to reward winners. But the game was only active for a short period of time, adding a twist of FOMO and scarcity when it is time limited.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2202.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2202.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6c0d4d8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2202.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2202", + "Date": "4/5/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Considering the last few decades in findability (where a #consumerbrand optimizes its online presence to be found), companies optimized around Google in the 2000s, then added optimization around social in the 2010's.", + "Notes": "

Considering the last few decades in findability (where a #consumerbrand optimizes its online presence to be found), companies optimized around Google in the 2000s, then added optimization around social in the 2010's.

Is #chatgpt emerging as the search optimization for the 2020's?

ChatpGPT does not maintin current information, so it is releasing API's to allow companies to build plugins where it can get this data.

ChatGPT is good at language, but it needs help so it can incorporate current information. That is where the API's and plugins can help.

There is a wait list for this but appears to be enough documentation available for companies to start thinking about and building their plugin.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2229.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2229.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1eafafb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2229.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2229", + "Date": "4/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

How do #consumerbrands get more revenue but produce less? Four choices: (1) raise prices, (2) reduce costs, (3) get secondary market revenue on used product sales, (4) and sell digital goods.


", + "Notes": "

How do #consumerbrands get more revenue but produce less? Four choices: (1) raise prices, (2) reduce costs, (3) get secondary market revenue on used product sales, (4) and sell digital goods.

(1) and (2) are hard to do and you might get a few percent here and there.

(3) In web2, this works if a brand has their own secondary marketplace. In #web3 , it can work a lot better because the infrastructure allows for application across many secondary marketplaces. The problem is that for most brands, I anticipate this source of revenue to be pretty small, like 5% and less. Luxury brands, however, may be much more significant.

(4) The biggest revenue increase could come from digital goods via web3 and metaverse/XR applications. But this does not help a food/consummables or FMCG brand. But where it could work for these (and all brands) is via an emerging business model called IP As Platform (borrowing from Doug Shapiro), where brands can license their IP for consumers to co-create, co-market and co-profit. #nike appears to be making early moves in this. IP As Platform could allow really strong brands (I call them ultra brands) to realize substantial revenue and insane profit margins off of this business model.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2269.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2269.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..008933a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2269.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2269", + "Date": "4/12/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "artificial intelligence", + "IP as Platform", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike,Coca-Cola,Tommy Hilfiger", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I keep seeing more and more #consumerbrands opening up their intellectual property for consumers to co-create, co-profit and co-market. Where #nike is the leader, here's recent additions.

", + "Notes": "

I keep seeing more and more #consumerbrands opening up their intellectual property for consumers to co-create, co-profit and co-market. Where Nike is the leader, here's recent additions.


#cocacola wants fans to use ChatGPT and Dall-E to create brand artwork


The #tommyhilfiger brand is hosting an #artificialintelligence fashion challenge to create designs that incorporate the Tommy Hilfiger brand identity. Winning designs, chosen by Hilfiger himself, will be produced as #nft art and accessible via augmented reality.


There is also the video that went viral recently showing Roberto Nickson (@rpnickson) create his own lyrics, then overlay Kayne West's voice. Musicians will be creating AI models of their voices for people to do this from which they will figure out a way to earn licensing revenue. Soon, people will create the music they want using the voices they want.


This is all leading towards IP As Platform, where brands let their fans run with their assets to do what they want, which could bring in new revenue at healthy margins.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2293.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2293.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18450a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2293.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2293", + "Date": "4/13/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

#consumerbrands increasing #profitmargin 40% on #web3 ...its possible. Here is how I think it could play out.

This is original LinkedIn/Twitter post, but model, article and any future notes/changes will be centralized there: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jxwpvmsmjK7bFi6Z2ZfPbYFFt_zWUpGn-WZy8S_PYg/edit?usp=sharing

", + "Notes": "

#consumerbrands increasing #profitmargin 40% on #web3 ...its possible. Here is how I think it could play out.

I posted here about how to get more revenue and produce less product. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_consumerbrands-web3-nike-activity-7051208196836757505-XXsI To summarize, (1) raise prices, (2) reduce costs, (3) get secondary market revenue on used product sales, (4) and sell digital goods.

In (3) and (4), it seems to me that the revenue off of these activities is highly profitable because its all digital, so while the top line revenue is small, most of it flows directly to net profit margin.

Unpacking (3)

If we assume: (a) durable goods brand that sells products for $100 or more; (b) secondary market royalties of 5% attached to each product; (c) used product sales on all those products that generate 5% royalty back to the brand (I know, not realistic, but we're just trying to get to maximum potential); (d) marketing costs to set all this up and operate it using web3 infrastructure (again, using some super high level assumptions on costs) = 20% increase in net profit margin. That is pretty substantial. What if we get realistic and maybe its only 5%? Would you like 5% more added to your net profit margin?

Unpacking (4)

If we assume: (a) an ultra brand that is loved by its customers who stake their identities on them and what they stand for; (b) that moves to IP As Platform by democratizing its IP where consumers can be involved in co-creating, co-marketing, co-profiting, co-experiencing off of products; (c) but IP As Platform is too new to get any sense for its potential, so we will just go with the same metrics used in (3) = . same results.




I think a lot of brands could see results like those unpacked in this model in both (3) and (4), especially in Luxury. But even a food brand where (3) is not applicable, they might still become an ultra brand and democratize IP in (4) to increase net margin nicely.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2313.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2313.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..87a6fc3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2313.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2313", + "Date": "4/14/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "Web3 Strategy: Toolset", + "External Platform Posts", + "Experience Marketing" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2313__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A #web3 native #luxury #apparel startup I follow and post on regularly is 9dcc. Watching the brand's #NYNFT activities struck me that the company is neither a luxury company, a web3 company nor an apparel brand. They just occupy those spaces as a jumping off point to do what they are really all about.


", + "Notes": "

A #web3 native #luxury #apparel startup I follow and post on regularly is 9dcc. Watching the brand's #NYNFT activities struck me that the company is neither a luxury company, a web3 company nor an apparel brand. They just occupy those spaces as a jumping off point to do what they are really all about.

What they really are is a marketing company, specifically focused on experience marketing, largely serving to connect its customers via mostly IRL (in real life), some URL (online), at events and places with a healthy dose of games and challenges used to help facilitate engagement.

They just use luxury apparel and web3 to help facilitate their mostly IRL people-connecting activities. They are more about creating the platform to facilitate relationships so that people can interact, socialize, make connections and do things together.

Most consumer product startups are product focused, which is natural because they develop a better product. Some startups might be influencer/celebrity focus leveraging the existing name/brand to sell a product.

9dcc is a new breed of #consumerbrands emerging because of web3 technology and they are neither product nor brand focused, they are focused on #experiencemarketing They develop the company around this, not around the product or a brand.

Image attached and model here: https://lucid.app/documents/view/651b0b45-3909-4496-9923-312e3f44d7d0

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2327.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2327.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..72b26a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2327.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2327", + "Date": "4/17/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I see #consumerbrands moving towards a barbell distribution between no brand vs. ultra brand, and the middle between the two getting hollowed out. I think this is just starting to set itself up and will become more prominent in the 2025-2035 time frame. Here's why and a framework to help a brand decide which one they want to be.", + "Notes": "

I see #consumerbrands moving towards a barbell distribution between no brand vs. ultra brand, and the middle between the two getting hollowed out. I think this is just starting to set itself up and will become more prominent in the 2025-2035 time frame. Here's why and a framework to help a brand decide which one they want to be.

The no brand competes on price and sheds as much about brand building as possible.

The ultra brand is loved by its customers who stake their identities on them and what they stand for.

We have seen #barbell distributions play out in many areas

1. Most famous is hollowing out of middle-income demographic, with greater divides in wealth where rich get richer and poor get poorer and the middle goes away.

2. Banking, airlines, energy, technology, telecom…bigger have gotten bigger and smaller have gotten smaller.

3. Power law of content distribution is fueled by algorithms that reinforce likes/views, leading to incredible but few popular hits, with a dramatic drop off and extremely long tail of everything else that fights for the crumbs (a barbell with one side missing, but a very long side).

What's driving the no brand vs ultra brand distribution?

1. Attention: There is just too much choice for consumers in terms of products and competition for their attention. Consumers need a compelling reason to buy, which comes down to stark contrasts in what companies offer.

2. #web3 : The next iteration of the Internet will provide super tools for brands to position themselves in the marketplace, which means they can become stronger brands with a captive customer base.

What the means for brands right now is that they have to pick who they want to be - they can't do it all.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2332.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2332.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..88bb0df --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2332.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2332", + "Date": "4/18/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A recent #web3 activation by Wrangler is a good example of the MO for web2 #consumerbrands to get into web3. Here's the pluses and minuses for doing it this way.


", + "Notes": "

A recent #web3 activation by Wrangler is a good example of the MO for web2 #consumerbrands to get into web3. Here's the pluses and minuses for doing it this way.

First, the activation is pretty basic: (1) create a new apparel item; (2) embed an NFC chip into the item that connects to the NFT, which authenticates the jacket and puts it on-chain; (3) partner with an artist/designer already in web3 to create the jacket and NFT artwork; (4) promote primarily to the artist/designers web3 user base.

Pluses:

1. Easy way to get into web3 promoting the drop to an existing web3 user base;

2. Easy way to test and get familiar with web3;

3. Limited production run and promotion so it won't cause blow back or market distortion to the brand if things do not go well.

Minuses

1. Not a money maker, but it is not designed to do this;

2. Won't bring new people into web3 - the drop is appealing to existing web3 consumers;

3. Probably will not convert web3 buyers to the brand long term.

The reality is that because web3 infrastructure and UX/UI is still awful and we are in a very unfavorable regulatory environment, web3 for consumer brands is not growing or attracting new users, so doing limited drops like this to existing web3 users is the only play.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2346.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2346.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6532e1c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2346.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2346", + "Date": "4/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Nike is dropping its first product under .SWOOSH, its #web3 platform", + "Notes": "

Nike is dropping its first product under .SWOOSH, its #web3 platform

This is Nike's first product in web3 for the mass market. .SWOOSH is Nike's mass market web3 offering. RTFKT, which is a separate company that Nike purchased a few years back, really appeals to the web3 crowd and not the mass market. They are not a part of this, although I am sure they are helping Nike heavily in the background.

Here's the key details that make this a good mass market web3 offering.

1. No bot purchases or general public offering. 106,543 Eligible buyers will be randomly chosen to receive the opportunity to purchase and drawn from the 330K+ .SWOOSH members. Doing it this way rewards .SWOOSH members and limits one purchase per eligible buyer so that accounts do not make multiple purchases that they resell later at a markup, which tends to anger fans.

2. Fan designs included. Designs will be included from winners of a previous content to help design the creations. This is a first step towards getting fans involved to co-create, co-market and co-profit off of Nike IP.

3. Appeal across age groups. The drop is a digital only creation (virtual creation) based on the Air Force 1 shoe with different variations you can select based on product's production period, which is a way to appeal to a cross-section of age groups.

4. No crypto payments, only U.S. dollar. This gets crypto out of the mix because it is too cumbersome to deal with and the vast majority of people will not use it.

5. Flat cost of $19.82 per purchase. Web3 thus far has been exclusive and controlled by investors and speculators that pump and dump products. Nike is trying to get away from that with the .SWOOSH platform.

6. Nike ecosystem only. While the NFT of the purchase is minted in the Polygon chain, once purchased the product is transferred to a .SWOOSH customer wallet. The NFT cannot be transferred to another wallet or resold anywhere else but the Nike platform. While I am sure in the future Nike will open them up to be transferred to other wallets and sold elsewhere, this is a good way to start.

Overall, a basic web3 rollout for the mass market, frictionless, but uninspiring because product details are really unknown. A purchase entitles the owner to a digital shoe creation that supposedly can be used in metaverse or other online applications, but we don't yet know which ones. Further, there are not-yet-know URL and IRL benefits for holders.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2382.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2382.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..179b60a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2382.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2382", + "Date": "4/24/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2382__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I've thought for a long while that #web3 is a massive unification of people, places, things, events and experiences, all of which can be represented online through the #nft protocol.


", + "Notes": "

I've thought for a long while that #web3 is a massive unification of people, places, things, events and experiences, all of which can be represented online through the #nft protocol.

Things: think of using a pair of alpine skis (things with embedded NFC chips that tie them to an NFT minted on-chain)...

Places: ...at a ski resort (place that gives you an NFT commemorating and proving you visited, which can now be associated to the skis)...

Events: ...at a spring splash event (event where you get another NFT to commemorate and prove you participated, which can be associated to the ski resort NFT and associated to the skis)...

Experiences: ...and an experience with family/friends who participated with you (experience NFT that you mint and share with your family/friends, which can be associated to the above NFTs)...

Think graphically how this looks, showing the interconnections between people, places, things, events and experiences, all tied together via NFTs that are the unifying technology.

Through NFT's we have a way to represent these five dimensions online that enables us to more effectively use our graphs.

We have social graphs (Meta), interest graphs (TikTok), and with web3, we can now have ownership graphs and experience/activity graphs. But in #web2 , these graphs are siloed in separate systems that do not interact. In web3, they are open using a common interoperable technology protocol so that they can interact.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2398.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2398.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..af1b99f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2398.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2398", + "Date": "4/25/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Coca-Cola", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "What characteristics should #consumerbrands have to take maximum advantage of #web3 ? They are as follows:", + "Notes": "

What characteristics should #consumerbrands have to take maximum advantage of #web3 ? They are as follows:

1. Higher price : brands with products that have higher price points;

2. Durable product: brands with longer shelf-life products;

3. Desirable brand: brands that have a strong reputation and an engaged customer base.

4. Brands whose products can be used across the following interactive dimensions: people, places, things, events, and experiences, which I covered in this post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_web3-nft-web2-activity-7056284669939503104-w1vH

Standout category winners are #luxuryfashion #outdoor and #auto . #foodandbeverage brands aren't necessarily losers because they will still need to use web3 for marketing and sales, but probably not to create new products using web3.

However, brands weak in web3 fundamentals, like food, may still drive substantial revenue through #IPAsPlatform, which we are just starting to see from a few brands, including The Coca-Cola Company

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2418.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2418.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..979f082 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2418.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2418", + "Date": "4/27/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2418__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Big exploding trends I see for #consumerbrands over the next 4-years include blockchain/web3, AI, UGC (user generated content), experience marketing and IP As Platform.", + "Notes": "Big exploding trends I see for #consumerbrands over the next 4-years include blockchain/web3, AI, UGC (user generated content), experience marketing and IP As Platform.

While #web3 for consumer brands has completely stalled, and I don't see any pickup till maybe 2024, #ai is sprinting forward, which is feeding into #ugc that might now accelerate to light speed. When web3 gets back on track, that will feed into UGC even more and accelerate #IPAsPlatform.

We know that AI will let consumers create they content and entertainment they want to consume. We're now seeing that potentially snowball in the music industry with people creating AI voice models of artists (unlicensed and clear copyright violations), creating their own lyrics and score, merging them to create new music from popular artists.

Grimes is getting out in front and offering to co-create/co-market/co-profit with fans who do the same with her material. I think this kind collaboration will explode to benefit artists and fans, which will feed back into web3 because web3 will provide the infrastructure to make this all happen.

All these trends and technologies are feeding on each other and we are seeing exponential growth from all of them at once." +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2441.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2441.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..88b545a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2441.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2441", + "Date": "4/28/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2441__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "What #trends will take off and which ones will fizzle? When is the right time to start paying attention to a trend?", + "Notes": "

What #trends will take off and which ones will fizzle? When is the right time to start paying attention to a trend?

Its really hard to nail down the timing of anything, but one tool I found helpful is the simple #productadoptioncurve.

If we can approximate a trend's consumer adoption according to this curve, that might tell us when to start paying attention.

When a trend reaches early adopter phase, it tends to accelerate to mass market:

> Analogy is melting ice - no apparent change 0 to 32 degrees, but at 32.6, it becomes water showing massive and transformative change.

> Analogy is a sand pile - keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche showing massive and transformative change.

Change happens slowly, then all of a sudden because it reaches tipping points where network effects take over. All of a sudden can

happen when trends reach the early adopters phase.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2507.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2507.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1230f44 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2507.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2507", + "Date": "5/2/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I've collected over the years tools to help me think about creating \"WOW\" #consumerbrands products that capture attention.", + "Notes": "

I've collected over the years tools to help me think about creating \"WOW\" #consumerbrands products that capture attention.

Here is a list pulled from classic #directresponse #marketing elements for blockbuster products:

1. Does your product result in instant gratification? The answer to this question is gauged within the context of time. In live television, you have very little time to tell a story before you need a response to come in. If it takes six months before you see the result of the product or service, the “instant gratification” becomes a harder proposition to sell.

2. Does the product appeal to an impulse? Is there a sense of urgency to the desire the product creates for the buyer to have it right now?

3. Does it solve a problem?

4. Are you trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. People don’t care what you’re doing. They just don’t think the problem is big enough for them to start paying for your solution. Are you splitting hairs on improvements/benefits/outcomes that your target market just does not care about?

5. Does it solve a problem in expected ways?

6. Does the product create an emotional need? Can you help the viewer to make an emotional connection to the need it fulfills?

7. Is it easy to use and understand? This question speaks to the importance of developing your marketing message. Too many people have a general message about their product that spills “all over the map,”

8. Does it make one’s life easier? If you offer the product and it’s way outside the viewer’s comfort zone, it’s a factor you will have to consider. An ideal offering has a proposition that makes lives more convenient, not more complex.

9. Does it appeal to the masses? Mass appeal is a virtue in television selling as the selling programs are inherently designed, in most cases, to appeal to the consumer market at large.

10. Does it appeal to a niche? An ideal home sale product has a message that appeals to the masses. If your product does not, it’s a “niche” product. There’s nothing wrong with a niche product—and you may even be able to sell it successfully on television–as long as you identify your niche accurately and are able to clearly communicate what it is.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2541.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2541.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..960d9d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2541.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2541", + "Date": "5/3/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I've collected over the years tools to help me think about creating \"WOW\" #consumerbrands products that capture attention. I published one here: https://lnkd.in/gmR83pd9? Here's another one.", + "Notes": "I've collected over the years tools to help me think about creating \"WOW\" #consumerbrands products that capture attention. I published one here: https://lnkd.in/gmR83pd9? Here's another one.

1. Surprise. A wow experience always exceeds our expectations. It creates delight, amazement, wonder, or awe. For Christmas one year, one of my friends bought me a copy of the illustrated edition of 1776 by David McCullough.3 Honestly, it blew my socks off. I have never seen a more beautiful book. As the advertising copy says, “Packed with striking replicas of letters, maps, and portraits, this updated version of David McCullough’s 2005 best seller provides readers with unedited firsthand accounts of America’s initial steps toward sovereignty.” This product definitely created a wow experience.

2. Anticipation. Anticipating a wow experience is almost as good as the experience itself. As you think about it, you begin to live it in advance. For example, as I am writing this, Gail and I are planning a trip to the beach. We are beginning to think about it daily. I am making a mental list of the things I want to do. I can almost feel the breeze blowing in from the ocean. With each new day, the anticipation builds.

3. Resonance. A wow experience touches the heart. It resonates at a deep level. It sometimes causes goose bumps or even tears. I remember watching my two granddaughters play on the beach for the first time. They were joy personified as they chased the waves and the waves chased them. I thought to myself, Oh, to be that young!

4. Transcendence. A wow experience connects you to something transcendent. In that moment, you experience purpose, meaning, or even God. Years ago when I was an artist manager, one of my clients sat down at a piano to play some new songs for my business partner and me. As she began to sing, I was caught up in the music. I knew her talent was coming directly from some other place. I was overwhelmed at the beauty.

5. Clarity. A wow experience creates a moment when you see things with more clarity than ever before. You suddenly “get it” in a new way. Not long ago, I was reading Chasing Daylight by Eugene O’Kelly.4 The story was so powerful I could not put it down. I read it in one long airplane ride to the West Coast. In those few hours, I had more clarity about life than I had had in a long time.


6. Presence. A wow experience creates timelessness. You aren’t thinking about the past. You’re not even thinking about the future. Instead, you are fully present in what is happening now. One such perfect moment happened when I enjoyed an evening on the porch with my daughter, Mary, and her husband, Chris. We spent several hours talking and enjoying a bottle of wine together. It seemed like time stood still.

7. Universality. A true wow experience is nearly universal. Almost everyone will experience it in a similar way. This is why Cirque du Soleil and the Grand Canyon are so popular. They are so compelling that they appeal to people of all ages and ethnicities.

8. Evangelism. A wow experience has to be shared. You can’t contain it. You immediately begin thinking of all the people you wish were with you. After the experience, you recommend it unconditionally. You become an unpaid evangelist. I have done this with all the books I recommend to my friends and on my blog. And as you might know, “Apple evangelists” are a phenomenon of their own.

9. Longevity. The shine never wears off a wow experience. You can experience it again and again without growing tired of it. It endures. In 1973 I attended a Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young concert at Texas Stadium in Dallas, Texas. I was on the field, about ten yards from the stage. It was incredible. In 2000, for my birthday, Gail bought tickets to the CSN&Y concert in Nashville. Twenty-seven years later, they still blew me away.

10. Privilege. A wow experience makes you proud in a good way. You’re glad to be associated with it. You feel privileged, as if you are in an elite group, but at the same time humbled that you have had the experience. “Sandra” had a wow experience following her cochlear implant surgery. She had become profoundly deaf by the time she had the implants. On Activation Day, she was able to hear her granddaughter’s first words to her: “Can you hear me, Grandma?” Within months her hearing was clear, and “the magic began. I heard grandchildren’s voices for the first time, and my children, family and friends sounded just as I remembered. Does life get any better than this?”5 Clearly Sandra feels both privileged and humbled." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2547.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2547.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..46172e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2547.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2547", + "Date": "5/5/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Key strategic pitfalls in growing companies.", + "Notes": "

Key strategic pitfalls in growing companies.

Looking back at all my past ventures, I have distilled down three very key things that either caused my past businesses to fail or not reach their full potential. They are as follows:

Timing

Either too early, or too late, but timing risk can be minimized via the next item.

Runway

Not enough runway to help maximize potential, which can result from not enough cash/investment, spending too much too early or spending on the wrong things, or unrealistic expectations about when success should occur.

Personality misalignments, greed, fear and ego

Personality

Make sure anyone who is involved in the business has the right personality mix and skill set for their job.

Greed

Gets in the way where people get too greedy and look out for themselves more than the business. Minimize this risk through incentives that help motivate the right behavior.

Fear

Can play a role where people do not act out of fear when they should act. Minimize this risk through incentives that help motivate the right behavior.

Ego

Social standing and rejection. People are afraid of making mistakes and being wrong in the context of how it will make them look towards others. It can be fear of failure, but deeper than that, it is fear of rejection because of that failure. As a result, they strongly trend towards making decisions to protect their reputation, position, status/social standing.

Irrelevance. People feel pride in gaining knowledge, experience, and senior positions, but when the market changes and their knowledge and experience is not worth what it used to be, or does not provide the value it used to, they are afraid of being cast aside or having to step aside. People have great fear of this and will go to great lengths to protect themselves from becoming irrelevant. It comes back to fear of rejection.

Identity and beliefs. Often people’s work, experience and life history coalesces to form a certain identity. If that identity is threatened, they will go to great lengths to protect it. That is why facts and data can stare people straight in the face yet people will discount them because they do not fit with their identity and/or beliefs. As a result, they make decisions to protect themselves, their identity and beliefs, but which hurt the company.

The risks associated with protecting social standing, irrelevance, identity and beliefs can be minimized by creating the proper incentives that will motivate the right behavior that gets people acting in the best interests of the company and not themselves.

But people also have to take personal responsibility to always be learning new things and keeping up with what the market needs. Companies can help here through incentives that motivate people to keep learning and progressing forward.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2569.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2569.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fe8dce8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2569.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2569", + "Date": "5/9/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "No company is safe from disruption, except ones that I think do this.", + "Notes": "

No company is safe from disruption, except ones that I think do this.

A few headlines I saw in the last week:

> \"Google Researcher: Company Has ‘No Moat’ in #ai \"

> \"Education companies’ shares fall sharply after warning over ChatGPT\"

> \"Design clothing with AI, get it made immediately.\"

If product R&D is democratized through open sourcing and consumer level tools, and manufacturing is available to anyone to produce what they want, why would consumers buy from companies?

Every company - and I mean every company - really needs to figure out how they could be disrupted. No one is safe.

I think the only way to guard against disruption is to create a rabid love affair connection with your customers who stake their identities on you and what you stand for.

In this model, they don’t care if:

> you are the leading product innovator;

> the #consumerbrands with the cheapest product;

> have the widest distribution;

> are the best tasting ;

> have/do the best…whatever.

In the above, there is no lasting competitive advantage because other brands always catch up.

But if you are a brand with a real connection to your customer, they will stick with you and give you time to catch up to the above because they love you and believe in you. I think it has to be a personal connection - customers know the people behind the brand, what they stand for and identify with them. That’s the only way to keep customers over the long term.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2597.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2597.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7cc2af9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2597.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2597", + "Date": "5/10/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2597__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Talent scouting using #ai with just a mobile phone is just the tip.

Mass market for this application is when everyone uses visual AI to improve at their activity/sport and learn better technique to avoid injuries.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2622.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2622.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f47c299 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2622.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2622", + "Date": "5/15/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Everything we do involves risk - getting out of bed in the morning, commuting, starting a company, trying a new marketing campaign, hiring a new employee. You cannot do anything without there being risk involved.", + "Notes": "

Everything we do involves risk - getting out of bed in the morning, commuting, starting a company, trying a new marketing campaign, hiring a new employee. You cannot do anything without there being risk involved.

We don’t avoid risk because if so, we would never get anything done. We manage risk. Here’s some simple tools I use to think about managing risk.

What is risk? It is the potential that something will not work as planned.

Risk is (1) a function of the probability that something unplanned will happen (2) multiplied by the severity of those effects if the risk happens.

Whenever we make plans, we have to consider the probability and severity that those plans will not work out.

Some simple risk rules to consider:

> high risk high severity, we don’t do it;

> low risk low severity, or high risk low severity, we probably do it.

> Low risk high severity, maybe we do it but get insurance or manage our exposure.

After considering the risk in your plan, we then make alternative plans if those risks materialize.

Summary:

(1) Make a plan; (2) consider the probability and severity of it not working out; (3) adjust the plan to get a better risk profile; (4) make alternative plans should the risk happen.

A few other rules with respect to risk that have helped me:

1. “Knowns that are actually not: It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So.” Be careful taking risks on things you think you know. Always question and think the unthinkable.

2. Risk increases when a situation is in a critical state. For example, after skiing 5-hours, I'm tired and in a critical state and should take fewer risks. Always look at your plans in context of critical states and adjust accordingly.

3. Leverage failures into something else. Risk happens; is there a way you could salvage your effort and leverage into something else if a plan fails?

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2636.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2636.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1427861 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2636.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2636", + "Date": "5/19/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I think the 2025-2045 era will be massively transformative. Here's the setup as I see it.


", + "Notes": "

I think the 2025-2045 era will be massively transformative. Here's the setup as I see it.

This come from my futurist work, where I research and understand technology trends in the context of cultural, societal, and geopolitical factors to gain clarity about the future and position for success.

Global supply chains are no longer feasible:

> competition for resources...

> + climate change...

> + cost to maintain a globalized world order = deglobalization

The global world order is shifting and future success will be dependent on the following attributes:

> Demographics

> Access to resources

> Vibrant consumer markets

> Wealth, military strength, infrastructure and educated population

(export-led countries are now highly disadvantaged)

Who is positioned for success?

US in a class all its own. It was not the 20th century, but the 21st century that may be remembered as the Age of America. Not to say we won’t have problems to deal with, but we will fare better than everyone else.

Distant second to the US: UK, France, Turkey, Australia/New Zealand, and maybe India - they have elements of the above attributes

Global supply chains will become more regional:

> US leads with Mexico, and Canada is able to piggyback on their successes, along with parts of Central and South America

> UK leads with Scandinavia

> Australia leads with Southeast Asia

> Others likely to emerge - too early to tell who.

Everyone else will devolve backwards from being industrialized nations, some faster than others. This will be a tough era (possibly disastrous) for many countries.

Who vies for the bottom? China, Russia and Ukraine - poor or none of the above attributes (and war is accelerating the demise of the later two).

General Inflation may be here to stay through 2030 driven largely by (1) energy costs because we do not have enough and resource constraints to electrify, (2) monetization of debt, which drives up asset prices, like real estate, (3) labor constraints, which drives up pay and (4) investment capital leaving due to baby boomer retirements, (5) Goal posts moving away from lowest cost (globalization era) to reliability and redundancy (deglobalization era), which will raise costs. We will have to muddle through as best as possible. But predicting inflation/deflation is different for everyone, so consider it carefully in context of your situation. Use this tool. https://lnkd.in/gw7S5shm

Feels like a damaging and deep recession will hit in the 2026-2030 period for the U.S. The 2030's and 2040's could be awesome for the U.S., but getting to where we are now to there and navigating this recession will be a challenge.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2647.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2647.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..db05531 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2647.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2647", + "Date": "5/22/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "#web3 for #consumerbrands is currently off the rails and on life support. I'm watching for technology improvements over the next year that will hopefully get us back on track and I am cautiously optimistic that brands can deploy on or after H2 2024.So that means there is not much activity, but here and there some interesting market activations pop up. Here is one.", + "Notes": "

#web3 for #consumerbrands is currently off the rails and on life support. I'm watching for technology improvements over the next year that will hopefully get us back on track and I am cautiously optimistic that brands can deploy on or after H2 2024.

So that means there is not much activity, but here and there some interesting market activations pop up. Here is one.

Pretty Nail Graffiti is a web3 native #beauty that appears to be rolling out a nail polish applicator with an NFC chip connected to the customer's phone that registers use and gives them points for application.

What's different here is the novel use of an NFC chip in a beauty product applicator, which I have not seen before.

Next difference is that web2 loyalty programs are generally driven off purchases, whereas web3 can incorporate actual use of products to help reward customers. Here, the brand wants to reward use, not just purchase.

There is no reason why the brand cannot do all this using web2, but they would need to do so via their own proprietary and closed systems. With web3, it is all open and interoperable. I won't say it is cheaper because web3 tech is still hard to work with and as a result, expensive, but over the long run it most likely will be cheaper to run a loyalty program off of open blockchains using #nfts rather than closed, proprietary systems.

Final difference between web2 and web3 loyalty programs is that in the web3 environment, consumers can more readily sell their loyalty membership/points/rewards if they no longer want to be tied to the brand. For the brand that means the efforts that went into building that loyalty from the former customer is not stranded. Let me explain.

In a web2 world, the backend retention, data collection and ascension efforts are stranded when the customer moves on. It is hard for brands to retain customers because most product owners drop off the ascension chain at some point and move to other brands. Even superfans eventually move on. Very few brands can command loyalty for long periods of time.

In this case, all the data, history, and effort that went into trying to retain and/or ascend the customer up the value chain is stranded and mostly useless.

But in a web3 world, all that effort to build loyalty from a customer can be sold or transferred to someone else who wants to take over and who care's about building loyalty. All that data and effort is no longer stranded because it follows to the new owner, where the brand can continue to build data and effort tied to the loyalty NFT.

How about the brand profiting from this sale? Not only can the brand profit from the sale if they set a secondary market royalty in the smart contract, but that revenue is highly profitable, with most of it going to the bottom line, which can move net profits substantially. I have a simple model here that shows - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jxwpvmsmjK7bFi6Z2ZfPbYFFt_zWUpGn-WZy8S_PYg/edit?usp=sharing

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2724.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2724.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cc75112 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2724.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2724", + "Date": "6/26/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "2724__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "2724__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

An uber trend I see with respect to #marketing for #consumerbrands .

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2730.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2730.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1a2deea --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2730.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2730", + "Date": "6/28/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2730__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Who wins and loses in #deglobalization ? How is the US positioned?", + "Notes": "

Who wins and loses in #deglobalization ? How is the US positioned? Here's the slides and text copied in from a recent presentation on the 2025-2045 era I gave that included this uber trend.

Global supply chains are no longer feasible: competition for resources + climate change + cost to maintain a globalized world order = deglobalization.

The global world order is shifting and future success will be dependent on the following attributes:

1. Demographics

2. Access to resources

3. Vibrant consumer markets

4. Wealth, military strength, infrastructure and educated population

Export-led countries are now highly disadvantaged.

Who is positioned for success?

The US in a class all its own. It was not the 20th century, but the 21st century that may be remembered as the Age of America. Not to say we won’t have problems to deal with, but we will fare better than everyone else.

Distant second to the US:

> UK

> France

> Turkey

> Australia/New Zealand

> and maybe India - they have elements of the above attributes.

And no one else!

Global supply chains will become more regional:

> US leads with Mexico, and Canada is able to piggyback on their successes, along with parts of Central and South America

> UK leads with Scandinavia

> Australia/NZ leads with Southeast Asia

Others likely to emerge - too early to tell who.

Everyone else will devolve backwards from being industrialized nations, some faster than others. This will be a tough era (possibly disastrous) for many countries.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2759.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2759.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9bd2803 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2759.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2759", + "Date": "7/17/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "2759__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I see a consensus forming for the later part of this decade, starting as early as 2026. I call it The Reckoning, which will be a deep and damaging #recession in the U.S. and probably a lot worse elsewhere. Here's why, some of the top thinkers forecasting these troubles, what gets us out of it, and actions for #consumerbrands to prepare.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2777.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2777.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..888bf21 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2777.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2777", + "Date": "7/19/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2777__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A possible emerging trend I see is where #consumerbrands connect their artistans, crafts and tradespeople that make their products directly with the consumers to provide customized products, for a higher price.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2782.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2782.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5577cd0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2782.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2782", + "Date": "7/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2782__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Yikes. We're already at +1.1 C. And I fear +2.5 C is in the bag; +3 C is highly probable. These numbers would be disastrous for most countries. Maybe the U.S. can survive. But new innovations and the exponential progress of tech could save us. In addition to transitioning away from carbon, we have to keep pushing on technologies to innovate us out of this. #climatechange", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2791.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2791.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bf64c98 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2791.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2791", + "Date": "7/24/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Environment", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2791__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This chart is fascinating but also really disturbing.

We have a long way to go to catchup to replace coal, oil and natural gas with renewables, against the backdrop of continued growing energy demand. I fear we will never be able to replace these carbon-based fuel sources because when you overlay the countries that have the right potential for solar and wind plus the countries that can afford the infrastructure for renewables, that list pares down fast to just a handful. Maybe we can get to a place where it is cheap and fast to install nuclear reactors that are much safer than current designs. Or, we are able to get to fusion energy quicker than currently projected. I think our hopes rest on these two energy sources. If not, global warming will continue and there is nothing we can do to stop it.


\n

I fear that we will need to muddle through the next 50 years of global warming and climate change consequences until we have nuclear/fission that is widespread enough where we start to reduce dependency on carbon-based fuels in order to turn around our climate.

Can we survive another 50 years of global warming, which may include 2.5 or 3C? Some countries will muddle through like the US, but certainly not without consequences, but most others will not. We may have a rapid population decline as many people in other countries suffer from climate change that makes food insecure, warming that allows pandemics to breed and spread, rising sea levels that displaces people away from coastal areas, and war/competition for dwindling resources like food that get disrupted due to climate disasters.

I am not hopeful at present. We need to keep pushing on new technologies that might materialize which gives us a few silver bullets.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2807.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2807.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6352f61 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2807.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2807", + "Date": "8/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2807__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "If you make basic assumptions that COGS (what the artist gets paid) is 30%, these platforms keep a lot and don't do much if at all to market artists. Clearly there is a need to disrupt these platforms where the artist can go direct to consumer.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2813.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2813.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..80a172c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2813.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2813", + "Date": "8/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is great article on finding and exploiting niches for incremental improvement.

If the brand can get their testing process down to something like 6 months from idea to initial inventory and go direct-to-consumer first instead of retail, they have a good repeatable model for discovering opportunities that is cost-effective.

In this article, 18-months from idea to product, and now adding a full calendar cycle to test in retail means a long time to see if this will work. Testing and iterating fast and cheap on marketing messaging, tag lines, keywords, product images, etc. is best done via DTC. Do that first because one shot is all you get in retail.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2824.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2824.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..37ab36d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2824.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2824", + "Date": "8/18/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a pretty classic scenario with respect to growing in #cpg. Where do you focus your efforts, why, when do you raise and how much? Here it is copied in

I met with the founder a very cool ethnic frozen brand last night. They have frozen prepared meals that are currently selling in Target, Walmart, Kroger, WFM and beyond. Around 6,500 doors, $7M in revenue, and a very small tight and nimble team of 5. To date, there hasn't been sufficient capital for marketing so they are gearing up for a raise to turn on the marketing engine. Currently, they are crushing it in the natural channel and moving 4-6 units per week per sku, however, in conventional and mass, they are moving closer to 1-1.5 where they need to be at 2.5-3.

ADDING one more variable. Let’s assume $250k burn due to lean team and assumption of 35% frozen product margin at $6-8 SRP

A couple questions here and would love everyone to chime in:

1. In today's macro environment, how much money should they raise and at what structure. This is an open ended question as you only have the information I provided above on revenue, doors, velocity and small team etc.

2. What should be the focus of the use of capital? Couple options below as examples:

a) Should they focus on deploying a majority of their dollars into marketing and trade to achieve velocity needed to stay on shelf and not expand distribution?

b) Continue to expand door count in the natural channel where they are winning ?

c) Build up team to support 2x revenue

d) Cut down on doors and focus on where they are winning while allowing new capital to drive specific channels

e) Start SKU extensions in the natural set

There are so many different routes one can take and so many ways to use the capital. Focusing on multiple channels and supporting a diverse set of doors is tough. Nail your velocities and then SCALE!!!!!

Back to me. The answer really comes down to one thing: what is your #roas (return on ad spend). The only variable in a CPG P&L that really matters is ROAS. All other P&L line items will pretty much standardize to industry ranges. But ROAS is a measure of how efficient your marketing is at generating sales and can vary widely and is both art and science to get it optimized.

Breakeven ROAS for a CPG is around 2. As a rule of thumb, if your ROAS for analog marketing is north of 4 and for digital north of 7, you are doing really really well and getting into blockbuster brand potential. Your goal is to test marketing constantly and find strategies, tactics and channels that deliver the highest ROAS. When you find one, you run with it and scale it and see if the ROAS holds at higher marketing spend. If it does, you probably have a winner.

So in this example, I would find the marketing strategy that maximizes my ROAS for the natural channel where I am seeing success and see if that ROAS holds as I ramp my marketing spend. If it does, then I have a formula that mints money.

Raise money to plow into marketing (and associated operations as needed) for expansion into the natural channel using the marketing strategy that delivers me a high ROAS. That money I am raising can be at a strong valuation because I have derisked the investor...I am raising money for what I know works.

Increase my door count in natural as well as increase my real estate on shelf, constantly testing against my ROAS. If ROAS holds as I get more doors and shelf space, then I have a formula for door/shelf space growth that will help entrench me so I build a competitive moat.

As I build on my strengths in the natural channel, test, test, test in the conventional channels to figure out how I can get a high ROAS there. If I figure that out, I can then go raise more money that is now derisked which I will use to conquer conventional channels.

To me, it all comes down to leverage, which if quantified, is a simple KPI called ROAS. Let it be the north star. But ROAS has its limitations and should only be used to compare marketing/sales campaigns across the same channel. ROAS should always be tested against #ROIMI (Return on Incremental Marketing Investment).

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2908.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2908.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..79ee573 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2908.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2908", + "Date": "9/20/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a great evolution in #retail sales from Houdini Sportswear a #consumerbrand with its own store where it is testing new concepts.

This brand's revenue model combines new product sales, used product sales, repair, rental and subscription.

Most brands have to produce new to earn revenue. We clearly need to produce less to get #carbonemissions under control, so moving towards a model that incorporates #circularity may really help.

What's really great about this retail concept is that you currently never see new product and used same-brand product sold side-by-side because brands don't get revenue from secondary market sales, so naturally they do not want to cannibalize new product sales.

But what if they could?

A possible future major driver of high margin revenue for used product sales is tokenizing products, where secondary market sales return a nominal fee back to the brand (like 2.5%).

If we can get wide adoption for using token technologies by durable goods brands as well as secondary market/used resellers, then this could really give brands an incentive to produce less but still maintain net income, which would also allow us to see new and used product sold together.

The 2.5% fee is paid by consumers - I suppose you can look at it as a tax. But consumers, especially millennials and younger generations, have shown to be very supportive of genuine efforts by brands to reduce carbon emissions, even if it costs more.

https://thedaily.outdoorretailer.com/news/industry-press-releases/houdini-sportswear-expands-circularity-platform/

", + "Notes": "

This is a great evolution in #retail sales from Houdini Sportswear a #consumerbrand with its own store where it is testing new concepts.

This brand's revenue model combines new product sales, used product sales, repair, rental and subscription.

Most brands have to produce new to earn revenue. We clearly need to produce less to get #carbonemissions under control, so moving towards a model that incorporates #circularity may really help.

What's really great about this retail concept is that you currently never see new product and used same-brand product sold side-by-side because brands don't get revenue from secondary market sales, so naturally they do not want to cannibalize new product sales.

But what if they could?

A possible future major driver of high margin revenue for used product sales is tokenizing products, where secondary market sales return a nominal fee back to the brand (like 2.5%).

If we can get wide adoption for using token technologies by durable goods brands as well as secondary market/used resellers, then this could really give brands an incentive to produce less but still maintain net income, which would also allow us to see new and used product sold together.

The 2.5% fee is paid by consumers - I suppose you can look at it as a tax. But consumers, especially millennials and younger generations, have shown to be very supportive of genuine efforts by brands to reduce carbon emissions, even if it costs more.

https://thedaily.outdoorretailer.com/news/industry-press-releases/houdini-sportswear-expands-circularity-platform/

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2971.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2971.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..83cdb19 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/2971.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "2971", + "Date": "10/2/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

In reference to this article: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300979611/stay...

Is this a good or bad problem? In general, I'd always take the problem of too much demand over too little demand. I think the issues here is, how do you manage the demand so you don't create the problems that lead to these kinds of outcomes? But more than that, how do locations like this earn revenue from the demand to not just manage the influx, but actually make a profit (GoFundMe is one mechanism they spun up, but it was reactionary to the problems that needed money to solve).

Demand for experiences like this and across local, state and federal natural attractions is pretty common now. Whenever I do anything outdoors, its about picking the times and places to avoid crowds. You can't tell people not to go to a public place, or not write about it. That won't solve the problem. The problem will be there and will get worse because people are getting outdoors more.

There's a lot of technology already to help a town like this manage these problems - websites, ecommerce engines, social accounts, GoFundMe/fintech platforms, demand management, demand pricing - all #web2 stuff. In #web3 we have emerging #token technology to potentially make all this work more seamlessly.

The challenge I think is coordinating everyone so people know they can't just go...they have to do some planning, like when to visit, what to do, and where they could donate to help the town manage the visitation. We all pretty much use Google Maps for anything directionally related - what if that becomes the one place where these instructions are centralized?

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3039.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3039.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..249510b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3039.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3039", + "Date": "10/23/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "web3 consumer products use case" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Jones Snowboards", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Jones Snowboards has figured out how to take used #snowboards and #upcycle them into parts for new boards, apparently an industry first. Here’s a few thoughts on how to leverage this innovation really fast so that we see that result.

", + "Notes": "

This is a significant innovation but I’ve seen almost no press about it. This needs to be amplified, plus I will add ways I think the company and the industry can use new technology and emerging business models to leverage this towards a big leap forward in #carbonemissions reduction.

Jones Snowboards has figured out how to take used #snowboards and #upcycle them into parts for new boards, apparently an industry first.

Imagine if the industry massively and aggressively coalesces around this innovation and inside something like 3 years, there is a 10% reduction in the use of new materials. That would be an enormous win.

Here’s a few thoughts on how to leverage this innovation really fast so that we see that result.

Token Technology.

#Tokentechology for #consumerbrands should be rolling out next year. Jones' can issue tokens in exchange for returned boards that serve as a certificate of authenticity or proof the consumer did this and attach discounts on future product purchases. Tokens are social proof of what a consumer did and since tokens are represented as media, the brand can partner with artists to create the tokens that might become collectibles on their own.

Gamification.

The leverage of tokens extends into interaction using token-to-token communication, not just between Jones' and token holders, but amongst token holders. Use this communication to #gamify the collection and #recycling of even more snowboards so that we rid the world of any unused or discarded units. The goal here is to use tokens to multiply the upcycling of boards beyond what a few email blasts, press releases, website copy and product discounts offer. Create a distinct group, incent them to do more and reward them with social proof and product rewards. Tokens can help.

Cooperation.

Every snowboard manufacturer does the following: (1) create their own version of a boards-for-tokens program, (2) for which old boards get sent to Jones' to upcycle, (3) where manufacturers buy the upcycled material from Jones' for their own boards, (4) while Jones' open sources its innovation so it can be scaled at other manufacturers.

Traditional competitive and incumbent thinking is: \"Are your stupid! No way we are supporting a competitor!\"

But its that kind of thinking that has us in the environmental mess we are in.

Further, from my futurist research, I predict consumers will severely punish these traditional competitive approaches and especially lay blame on the big, old, incumbent manufacturers who did not use their size , reputation and leverage to do more.

In my estimation, Jones’ innovation coupled with token tech and progressive business practices is a big unexpected gift to help the industry reduce its carbon footprint in a sizeable way.

https://gearjunkie.com/winter/snowboarding/jones-re-up-tech-snowboard-recycling-program

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3061.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3061.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73e2951 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3061.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3061", + "Date": "10/27/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "Retail", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "c6049Jack_Stratten", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Innovative #retail ideas profiled by Jack Stratten

The last few decades where more about online, but that is now so saturated that it is hard to capture consumer attention and create lasting emotional connections between #consumerbrands and the customer.

IRL experiences are seeing a resurgence with creative ways emerging to reach consumers.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jack-stratten-9314113b_epdadesign-brandpopups-innovation-activity-7123597824444821504-2HZt

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3150.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3150.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07bb10b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3150.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3150", + "Date": "11/28/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "3150__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The future assumes growth in #energy production (oil/gas/electricity), but the data suggests some possible problems with that and even a reduction from current levels, which would be really bad.

", + "Notes": "

This is part of my futurist work looking out 3-10 years, making predictions, and positioning myself and my businesses accordingly.

Oil/gas production. The attached slide shows quite a large deficit in oil/gas capex, and dwindling reserves. Capex takes years to come online and before reaping benefits. Could we experience severe shortfalls in oil/gas in the future, which raises prices and leads to rationing?

Renewables. The path towards #renewables requires mining of materials and intermediate processing of infrastructure. Mines take years, if not decades to come online. Intermediate processing of infrastructure (like solar panels) is done mostly in China, which as a country could implode in this decade. Who will pick up the slack for processing? That can take years and decades to come online.

Nuclear. Currently, #nuclear supplies 20% of electricity in the U.S. But all but one of the plants are 50 years old and could be decommissioned in the coming decades, with no new replacements scheduled and new nuclear technologies that may not be viable on a commercial basis.

Could #greenhydrogen and #fusionenergy save us? Possibly, but they are both at least 5-years away on an optimistic case, and more likely at least 10 years away as a base case.

More: Modular/portable reactors maybe proving unviable, so unless the govt steps in to take over development and cost, small nuclear may not work in the future.

I asked ChatGPT for an assessment about whether I am correct or not.

Your assessment of the future energy production landscape, particularly regarding oil and gas capex and reserves, renewables, and nuclear energy, is aligned with the challenges highlighted in recent energy investment reports. Here's an analysis based on the IEA's World Energy Investment 2023 report:

Oil and Gas: Investment in oil and gas is rising but remains below the level needed for new supply to meet long-term demand, with a significant share going to dividends and share buybacks instead of reinvestment.

Renewables: Clean energy investment has increased, particularly in advanced economies and China, with solar energy receiving significant attention. However, investment in renewables faces challenges like higher input costs and concentrated investment in certain geographies.

Natural Gas: There's an increase in approvals for new natural gas resources, partly as a response to the shortfall in Russian supply, but long-term demand remains uncertain, especially in Europe with its strong climate goals.

Clean Energy and Grids: Clean energy investment, particularly in electrification, is growing rapidly and could meet the announced climate pledges if the trend continues. However, the investment in grids and other support systems is lagging, and geographical imbalances persist.

Your predictions are in line with the IEA's analysis, reflecting a transitional energy market that faces both short-term pressures and long-term uncertainties. The potential shortfall in oil and gas could indeed lead to higher prices and rationing if not addressed by new investments. The transition to renewables and nuclear is ongoing but not without its challenges, and emerging technologies like green hydrogen and fusion energy are still developing and not yet ready to fill the gap at scale. The current trends suggest a complex and evolving energy landscape that warrants careful monitoring and responsive strategic planning.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3154.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3154.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c47a75c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3154.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3154", + "Date": "11/28/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

There are four pivotal tools that had profound orders of magnitude improvement in my #productivity over my work career.

The first was learning spreadsheets back in the early 1990's to power numeric computations - easily a 100x productivity booster.

The second was email for communication and file sharing - massively sped up getting things done and interacting with people.

The third was Amazon (ecommerce in general, but Amazon in particular) - a huge time and cost saver when it came to buying stuff and getting it delivered.

And the fourth? #chatgpt 4.0. Unbelievable productivity booster for copywriting and learning. And the generative AI paradigm is just barely getting started.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3156.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3156.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3700db1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3156.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3156", + "Date": "11/29/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

There are four pivotal tools that had profound orders of magnitude improvement in my #productivity over my work career.

The first was learning spreadsheets back in the early 1990's to power numeric computations - easily a 100x productivity booster.

The second was email for communication and file sharing - massively sped up getting things done and interacting with people.

The third was Amazon (ecommerce in general, but Amazon in particular) - a huge time and cost saver when it came to buying stuff and getting it delivered.

And the fourth? #chatgpt 4.0. Unbelievable productivity booster for copywriting and learning. And the generative AI paradigm is just barely getting started.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3157.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3157.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..05cb2ee --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3157.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3157", + "Date": "11/30/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Google", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Incredible resource for #researchanddevelopment and #productdevelopment fields.

Google DeepMind has discovered 2.2 million new materials, out of which 380,000 appear stable and are potential candidates for experimental synthesis.

Details here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/millions-of-new-materials-discovered-with-deep-learning/

#consumergoods #consumerbrands

", + "Notes": "

AI tool GNoME finds 2.2 million new crystals, including 380,000 stable materials that could power future technologies


Modern technologies from computer chips and batteries to solar panels rely on inorganic crystals. To enable new technologies, crystals must be stable otherwise they can decompose, and behind each new, stable crystal can be months of painstaking experimentation.


Today, in a paper published in Nature, we share the discovery of 2.2 million new crystals – equivalent to nearly 800 years’ worth of knowledge. We introduce Graph Networks for Materials Exploration (GNoME), our new deep learning tool that dramatically increases the speed and efficiency of discovery by predicting the stability of new materials.


With GNoME, we’ve multiplied the number of technologically viable materials known to humanity. Of its 2.2 million predictions, 380,000 are the most stable, making them promising candidates for experimental synthesis. Among these candidates are materials that have the potential to develop future transformative technologies ranging from superconductors, powering supercomputers, and next-generation batteries to boost the efficiency of electric vehicles.


GNoME shows the potential of using AI to discover and develop new materials at scale. External researchers in labs around the world have independently created 736 of these new structures experimentally in concurrent work. In partnership with Google DeepMind, a team of researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has also published a second paper in Nature that shows how our AI predictions can be leveraged for autonomous material synthesis.


We’ve made GNoME’s predictions available to the research community. We will be contributing 380,000 materials that we predict to be stable to the Materials Project, which is now processing the compounds and adding them into its online database. We hope these resources will drive forward research into inorganic crystals, and unlock the promise of machine learning tools as guides for experimentation


Accelerating materials discovery with AI


About 20,000 of the crystals experimentally identified in the ICSD database are computationally stable. Computational approaches drawing from the Materials Project, Open Quantum Materials Database and WBM database boosted this number to 48,000 stable crystals. GNoME expands the number of stable materials known to humanity to 421,000.


In the past, scientists searched for novel crystal structures by tweaking known crystals or experimenting with new combinations of elements - an expensive, trial-and-error process that could take months to deliver even limited results. Over the last decade, computational approaches led by the Materials Project and other groups have helped discover 28,000 new materials. But up until now, new AI-guided approaches hit a fundamental limit in their ability to accurately predict materials that could be experimentally viable. GNoME’s discovery of 2.2 million materials would be equivalent to about 800 years’ worth of knowledge and demonstrates an unprecedented scale and level of accuracy in predictions.


For example, 52,000 new layered compounds similar to graphene that have the potential to revolutionize electronics with the development of superconductors. Previously, about 1,000 such materials had been identified. We also found 528 potential lithium ion conductors, 25 times more than a previous study, which could be used to improve the performance of rechargeable batteries.


We are releasing the predicted structures for 380,000 materials that have the highest chance of successfully being made in the lab and being used in viable applications. For a material to be considered stable, it must not decompose into similar compositions with lower energy. For example, carbon in a graphene-like structure is stable compared to carbon in diamonds. Mathematically, these materials lie on the convex hull. This project discovered 2.2 million new crystals that are stable by current scientific standards and lie below the convex hull of previous discoveries. Of these, 380,000 are considered the most stable, and lie on the “final” convex hull – the new standard we have set for materials stability.


GNoME: Harnessing graph networks for materials exploration


GNoME uses two pipelines to discover low-energy (stable) materials. The structural pipeline creates candidates with structures similar to known crystals, while the compositional pipeline follows a more randomized approach based on chemical formulas. The outputs of both pipelines are evaluated using established Density Functional Theory calculations and those results are added to the GNoME database, informing the next round of active learning.


GNoME is a state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) model. The input data for GNNs take the form of a graph that can be likened to connections between atoms, which makes GNNs particularly suited to discovering new crystalline materials.


GNoME was originally trained with data on crystal structures and their stability, openly available through the Materials Project. We used GNoME to generate novel candidate crystals, and also to predict their stability. To assess our model’s predictive power during progressive training cycles, we repeatedly checked its performance using established computational techniques known as Density Functional Theory (DFT), used in physics, chemistry and materials science to understand structures of atoms, which is important to assess the stability of crystals.


We used a training process called ‘active learning’ that dramatically boosted GNoME’s performance. GNoME would generate predictions for the structures of novel, stable crystals, which were then tested using DFT. The resulting high-quality training data was then fed back into our model training.


Our research boosted the discovery rate of materials stability prediction from around 50%, to 80% - based on an external benchmark set by previous state-of-the-art models. We also managed to scale up the efficiency of our model by improving the discovery rate from under 10% to over 80% - such efficiency increases could have significant impact on how much compute is required per discovery.


AI ‘recipes’ for new materials

The GNoME project aims to drive down the cost of discovering new materials. External researchers have independently created 736 of GNoME’s new materials in the lab, demonstrating that our model’s predictions of stable crystals accurately reflect reality. We’ve released our database of newly discovered crystals to the research community. By giving scientists the full catalog of the promising ‘recipes’ for new candidate materials, we hope this helps them to test and potentially make the best ones.



Upon completion of our latest discovery efforts, we searched the scientific literature and found 736 of our computational discoveries were independently realized by external teams across the globe. Above are six examples ranging from a first-of-its-kind Alkaline-Earth Diamond-Like optical material (Li4MgGe2S7) to a potential superconductor (Mo5GeB2).


Rapidly developing new technologies based on these crystals will depend on the ability to manufacture them. In a paper led by our collaborators at Berkeley Lab, researchers showed a robotic lab could rapidly make new materials with automated synthesis techniques. Using materials from the Materials Project and insights on stability from GNoME, the autonomous lab created new recipes for crystal structures and successfully synthesized more than 41 new materials, opening up new possibilities for AI-driven materials synthesis.



A-Lab, a facility at Berkeley Lab where artificial intelligence guides robots in making new materials. Photo credit: Marilyn Sargent/Berkeley Lab


New materials for new technologies

To build a more sustainable future, we need new materials. GNoME has discovered 380,000 stable crystals that hold the potential to develop greener technologies – from better batteries for electric cars, to superconductors for more efficient computing.


Our research – and that of collaborators at the Berkeley Lab, Google Research, and teams around the world — shows the potential to use AI to guide materials discovery, experimentation, and synthesis. We hope that GNoME together with other AI tools can help revolutionize materials discovery today and shape the future of the field.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3185.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3185.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18bd599 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3185.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3185", + "Date": "12/8/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "3185__File_URL.pptx", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

#wealthinequality and the swing back to balance, which means taxes likely to go up quite a lot on wealthy, upper income and asset owners. This really has to happen because a source of so much of our #polarization is due to wealth inequality. Failure to correct this and we see wider societal violence and the potential for civil war to emerge. See attached slides I pulled from my #futuristic work where I curate predictions 3-10 years in advance so that I can position myself accordingly

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3661.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3661.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ccaf7c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3661.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3661", + "Date": "12/12/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "3661__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Interesting chart attached showing long-term trends of #productivity We are back on an upswing and what will drive it is #ai

AI helps solves a lot of problems that we have, labor shortages especially. Combined with #robotics will be key to driving our #reindustrialization but also alleviate labor issues in healthcare, retail, food service, caregiver.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3689.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3689.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cd6deac --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3689.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3689", + "Date": "12/19/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "3689__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S. federal government spending is 20-25% of the U.S. economy, and we currently spend 40% more than we take in. Consider at some point that investors of U.S. government debt will no longer fund this shortfall, requiring painful reductions in government spending. And also consider the multiplier effect of U.S. federal government purchases on the U.S. economy as shown in the attached graph.

Somewhere in the future - I sense inside the next 10 years - there will be twin reckonings where government spending has to fall and the multiplier effect kicks in to the negative.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3714.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3714.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9626620 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3714.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3714", + "Date": "12/27/2023", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a fascinating tool I came across via #cop28 news, which tracks #carbonemissions through many different sensing technologies. I don't see it as useful for #consumerbrands , yet. As they hook up more sensing technologies in the future, I could see it getting more granular and tracking supply chain sourcing in much greater detail, which companies can use to help track emissions and make decisions about reducing emissions. A tool to watch as it develops further. https://www.climatetrace.org/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3741.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3741.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e7ee85d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3741.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3741", + "Date": "1/7/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Great post as usual from industry thought leader.The bigger picture:

(1) There is just too much product. Consumers are overwhelmed with choices, so the only differentiator for companies is price (#discounting ), which means a race to the bottom, so everyone suffers.

(2) We produce too much and cannot control #carbonemissions unless we produce less (#degrowth ) and focus more on used product sales and recycling/reusing/upcycling/repurposing.

(3) Larger macro issues associated with debt, politics/geopolitics, demographics and of course climate change means seismic changes ahead not seen since The Great Depression and WWII.

All this will correct, either voluntarily or because we have no choice. So far, we are choosing the latter, which means the correction (and pain) will be a lot worse.

All I can say is buckle up.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3766.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3766.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8087d16 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3766.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3766", + "Date": "1/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "3766__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "3766__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024. Great report looking at a large collection of global risks and further broken down by region and country. The summary is good but it is best to peruse through the entire report, as I found a few surprises. For anyone doing long-term strategic foresight planning for their company, this report lays out big interconnected global risks.

https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3767.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3767.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..de71f12 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3767.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3767", + "Date": "1/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Liquidity in forms of cash injected by the Fed and low interest rates are the main driver of equity prices over the last few decades, rather than stock performance driving equity prices.

The top 1% hold 54% of equities, and the broader top 10% hold 92% of equities. Swings in equity value matter greatly for people who have most of the country’s wealth, and affect their spending, investing, tax payments, and other things.

As a result of these and other factors, U.S. tax receipts tend to be highly correlated with year-over-year stock performance. This fact creates a feedback mechanism where downward or stagnant equity prices contribute to larger fiscal deficits, and those larger fiscal deficits can be stimulating to the equity market and the economy, and help pump those equity prices back up or at least prevent them from falling as much as bears might expect. And that feedback mechanism grows stronger over time as debts and deficits grow, and as the stock market is larger relative to GDP. Thirty years ago, the U.S. stock market was valued at about 70% of U.S. GDP whereas today it is valued at about 170% of GDP.

Outcome: The summary is that monetary and fiscal policy is now the main driver of equity prices, which then feeds into economic performance and tax receipts. At some point, monetary and fiscal policies through ever growing cash and debt loads will no longer be an option, which means equity prices fall and/or crash, which means economic performance crashes, and thus tax receipts also crash, all creating a vicious cycle.

I added this as a new slide to the Business Cycles slideshare.

", + "Notes": "

\"Top

\"Stocks

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3768.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3768.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..76a624b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3768.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3768", + "Date": "1/15/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "3768__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Americans Throw 76% of Their Recyclables Into the Trash. Via Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-10...

A linked article to the above indicates that making companies pay for trash would boost recycling up to 48%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-02...

This could be an added cost for #consumerbrands in the future.

#recycling #foresight

I added this to the Business Cycles slideshare in the Production & Logistics slide.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3800.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3800.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9fe94cc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3800.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3800", + "Date": "1/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Around the start of a new year I collect and save trend and prediction reports, amassing 230 this year. I review some, but most I just stick in a folder for keyword searches. I had hoped this year to use Google Bard to perform in-depth analysis, since Google allows for connection to one's drive account. But, for whatever reason, Google shut off that feature, so no such luck this year.

Here is a link to the folder if anyone is interested in perusing trend and prediction reports on their own: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1D_tgzngVpXa58BiCV1b2L94GqP1Hjlom?usp=sharing

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3801.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3801.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5eb3ad0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3801.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3801", + "Date": "1/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Great post with industry that is approaching critical state in terms of sustainability. On the front end is costs to the customer + logistics for travel + managing crowds = increasingly poor experience. And the backend are operational issues with staffing, CapEx and equipment issues = unsustainable operations.

The only way to make it work is people like me, who live close to a locals resorts (Winter Park/Mary Jane) where a season pass is dirt cheap when you average in the dozen or so days skied a year, and for lodging I have a van I outfitted for overlanding and overnight use.

Large destination resorts may be severally disadvantage, piggybacking off a trend I see where legacy brands in general will have a hard time adapting because of entrenched structures, sunk costs, sclerotic management and incumbent backlash (people turning against big established brands who did not do enough to fix problems).

So the future may be serious disruption with middle-market destination resorts who lose the casual, mass-market and fail, the most elite/upscale resorts survive and grow, and smaller and/or local resorts may do fine who are able to retain the die-hard skiers. Around the edges are backcountry skiing (and cat and helicopter skiing) that grow, but will never attract mass market so will always be niche. A classic barbellization that we see occurring across many consumer segments and industries.

The secondary effects from the above will affect entire segments in ways we cannot yet fathom (gear/equipment manufacturers, local communities, real estate/vacation rentals, travel...etc).

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3848.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3848.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9f2d055 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3848.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3848", + "Date": "1/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "3848__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The attached report from McKinsey on 2024 Fashion Trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NWO7IcUzHRszH-PW21iOz6Z8l84mPEVf/view?usp=sharing) talks about Outdoor Reinvented and the push for brands to move from their technical roots to lifestyle mass market. While this worked in the past, it won't work in the future.

Technical outdoor apparel brands transitioning into lifestyle brands has been happening for decades and has been the logical choice for outdoor apparel brands to grow. This strategy is long-in-the-tooth and young brands should not do this. What has worked for decades in the Old Normal era we are in now is dying and those that follow with this same strategy will be the chumps with disasters on their hands.

The strategy is used because small, technical brands want to grow. Yet they can't find any more technical customers so they reformat their products to become lifestyle brands that appeal to mass market buyers.

As we enter The Reckoning, a period of intense economic hardship, conflict and turmoil (roughly 2026-2035 period), this once-smart strategy will be the albatross that brings brands down. These now big, technical-lifestyle-mix brands will see their lifestyle mass market customers evaporate as the economy hits the skids, because the mass market looks at these reformatted technical-to-lifestyle brands as discretionary spend, which always suffers disproportionately more in a bad economy.

The original technical diehard customers have long moved on, so big reformatted technical-to-lifestyle brands have nowhere to go. Even if they can retain some attraction with diehards, that market is now too small to try and make up for lost sales to the mass market.

Small brands will me much better to stick to their technical roots through The Reckoning period because to their diehard customers, they are more of a staple spend, not a discretionary. It is better for them to ride out The Reckoning period as a small, technical brand, with a captive customer base, and then post-Reckoning, they can move into lifestyle if they want to capture more growth.

Large, lifestyle brands will be hit very hard and could see sales drop significantly and as brands, be worth orders of magnitude less than they are now.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3863.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3863.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0f9890 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3863.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3863", + "Date": "1/31/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is good article with a micro-trend now that I foresee will become a mainstream shift from consumers and brands, powering serious degrowth and circularity. It is simple - we have to produce and consume less to get our carbon emissions under control. Producing more each year to grow sales is unsustainable. Durable goods brands must (1) sell much fewer new items, but to maintain income, they need to (2) add in secondary market sales, (3) rental/digital, and (4) repair. I foresee the most successful brands in the 2030's will be something like 25%, 25%, 25% and 25%, respectively. A backlash from consumers against brands that do not get there, with regulatory penalties and possibly even criminal actions forthcoming.

", + "Notes": "

TikTok’s anti-overconsumption movement is a wake-up call for brands

De-influencing and no-spend challenges are countering social media consumerism. Here’s what fashion needs to know.

BY RACHEL CERNANSKY


January 25, 2024

overconsumption

Photo: Joos Mind

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In a hyper-consumerist era of social media, flooded with product reviews and shopping haul videos, a backlash to overconsumption is brewing.


More consumers are joining pledges such as the “Rule of 5” (where you limit fashion purchases to five items a year), conducting wardrobe inventories, or challenging themselves to buy nothing new in 2024 and shop their closets instead. “TikTok made me buy it” has become a common refrain for users influenced to make purchases from or on the app. Now, the hashtag #deinfluencing has been used more than 26,000 times, full of content creators working to undo some of that impulsive behaviour.


“What is good for the planet is also good for our mental health and our well-being. If we buy less, but we buy more mindfully, we are happier. And the planet is going to thank us because we don’t need that much stuff,” says Katia Dayan Vladimirova, senior lecturer at the University of Geneva and founder of the Sustainable Fashion Consumption research network. She and three colleagues launched a year-long experiment for 2024, the Joyful Closet Consumption Challenge, to help participants “rethink consumption patterns” and simultaneously study what challenges people face as part of that work, what motivates them to keep going, and what benefits they see if and when they succeed in reducing their wardrobe size and their acquisition of new clothes.


absurdity of overconsumption demonstration in France

Performance artist Dorian Chavez denounced the “absurdity” of overconsumption at the Biennale des arts vivants de Toulouse in France. Photo: Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images

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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

BY AMY FRANCOMBE


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As public concerns around waste and climate change grow louder, the mood is shifting at the highest levels as well. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, calls for capitalism to evolve, or risk failing, grew louder. The head of the World Trade Organization, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, called on world leaders to “rethink old growth models”.


Where does that leave brands, whose sustainability efforts have largely focused on business practices but not transforming the business model itself? For a growing number of academics, economists, advocates, small brands and even sustainability professionals within larger brands, the writing is on the wall: brands need to adapt. Failing to do so could be a threat to their future profitability, which today depends directly on increasing product sales every year.


“We’re not going to achieve sustainability with fashion houses constantly needing to increase growth every year. No amount of circularity, no amount of anything is going to work,” says Joseph Merz, chairman of the Merz Institute and senior fellow at the Global Evergreening Alliance, who led a study last year concluding that human behaviour is at the root of the global environmental crisis.


overconsumption

A secondhand pop-up swap in Singapore, one in a string of initiatives meant to nudge consumers away from shopping new and to use, or keep in circulation, what’s already in their closets. Photo: Catherine Lai / AFP

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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

BY AMY FRANCOMBE


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Consumers taking steps to break shopping addictions could spur action. “We are, by nature, prone to addictive behaviour, and shopping can be an addictive behaviour. Because of our evolutionary history, we are also prone to needing to acquire and control or hoard resources,” says study co-author Phoebe Barnard, CEO of the Stable Planet Alliance and affiliate professor in environmental futures, ecosystem health and conservation science at the University of Washington. “That addictive impulse has been exploited for profit because of this economic system we have created.”


Making ‘less, but better’ stick

The key to designing for the future, experts say, is to align people’s needs with those of the planet — and to create business models that serve both, rather than work against them.


“There are completely different ways that we could be satisfying those needs. That’s what gets me excited, thinking about ‘what are the alternative ways?’” says Merz.


global clothing swaps

Clothing swaps around the world: Boston, Singapore, Germany, Amsterdam. Photo: Ana Fernandez/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images; Andreas Arnold/picture alliance via Getty Images; Catherine Lai/AFP via Getty Images; Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

Vladimirova, among others, have already documented that through consuming less, people actually become happier and see boosts in their overall well-being. The Rule of 5 pledge, launched by fashion editor and sustainability advocate Tiffanie Darke in January 2023, has taken on a life of its own in just the last year. “I did it expressly to answer climate issues but was surprised that most of the response was from women sick of their own overconsumption, looking for a reason to stop,” says Darke.



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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

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The mob wife look is trending. Is it sustainable?

BY AMY FRANCOMBE


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Outside of shopping pledges, people can also take advantage of clothing swaps to gain a sense of community and new-to-you clothing options, and repair services, which are also on the rise. Overdyeing clothes can be an option, as can upcycling them into new styles — a practice shared by designers globally, from New York to Ghana’s Kantamanto market. The list is endless, it just requires some creativity, planning and a little intention setting.


What a more balanced business model could look like for brands, the researchers behind the Joyful Closet challenge suggest, is that fashion’s profits can be “repartitioned” such that new product sales account for only a fraction of a company’s revenue, as opposed to the majority of it. In her “Post Growth Fashion” Substack post, Vladimirova envisions a future where customers continue to spend money on fashion, but only 40 per cent of their total expenditure (instead of today’s 97.9 per cent) goes towards acquiring new pieces; 30 per cent would go to “fashion experiences” such as rental or digital fashion, and the final 30 per cent would be spent on “maintenance and improvement”, like repairs and upcycling.


Also important is how these changes are framed, talked about and modelled. “It’s about the modelling of the behaviour, not what we tell people to do,” says Merz. “We don’t look at the drivers of our behaviours — they’re all around us pushing us in the complete opposite direction of what we’re telling them to do. We’re shining a spotlight on one area and telling people to do this, while we’ve got all of these behavioural influences pushing people in the other direction. I think it’s critical to recognise that.”


Moving away from overconsumption, in other words, needs to become the “cool” thing to do, or it needs social proofing, in the words of Rachel Arthur, a sustainability strategist who authored the United Nations’ Sustainable Fashion Communication Playbook. “We need to bring on board more influencers, thought leaders, creators who can help make sustainable lifestyles truly aspirational, as well as inspirational,” she says. “We need the really big names to come forth here and that’s not happened yet.” Will the current de-influencing and anti-overconsumption trend become permanent interests or fade away as the year wears on?


Merz is optimistic, despite how entrenched certain interests are in maintaining the status quo. “We would have a much larger challenge on our hands globally if the current system were breeding really satisfied, happy people. It isn’t, it’s breeding unwell people.”


And this is where fashion has the potential to lead or risk being left behind. “There’s a creative reimagination that needs to happen. What are the alternative revenue streams brands [can turn to] instead of — not in addition to, as what’s been happening now, but instead of — selling new stuff,” says Vladimirova. “It’s harder to imagine a positive post-growth future than to imagine a dystopian post-apocalyptic future. It’s a crisis of imagination.”

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3964.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3964.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..60c4075 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3964.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3964", + "Date": "2/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "3964__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I reviewed all the charts and graphs I saved over the last year to come up with sixteen that truly caught my attention and made me think. Covering:

1. Electric vehicles rapidly loose their value;

2. Institution positive and negative impacts;

3. China birth rates under replacement rates since 1990;

4. 35 years for Japan's stock market to recover;

5. U.S. debt growth has been bipartisan ;

6. Are we in a 20-year equity price in a trading range?

7. Dismal residential recycling;

8. Platform shifts in technology and what's next;

9. Zombie companies a significant part of our economy;

10. The next productivity boom;

11. Wealth inequality;

12. Biggest polluters;

13. Generational shift where wealth will accumulate (and decline);

14. World debt at record high (and why did it suddenly explode starting in 1997);

15. Baby boomers own half the nation's wealth, and who is getting it;

16. Industrial production boom?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3967.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3967.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d6dfe1f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/3967.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "3967", + "Date": "2/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "3967__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Top 10% of stocks by size versus the entire US stock market. This looks ominous.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4048.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4048.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7126291 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4048.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4048", + "Date": "3/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Adidas,Gucci,Salomon,The North Face,Arc’teryx,Moncler,Hoka", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

In our modern era, blending outdoor apparel with urban/suburban and fashion started a decade ago (I think this also happened in the 1960's, then our modern era starting in earnest in the 1980's as we saw innovation in outdoor products and outdoor sports).

This has allowed outdoor and non-outdoor brands to cross-over into each other's territory, but with further slicing and dicing of the market by brands to create micro-niches.

This might be a tough strategy moving forward because a lot of these niche markets drive off of trends, which come and go. If it generally takes 2- years between product development, production and distribution for outdoor brands to come to market, trends could come and go by then.

Trends are also discretionary spend, which evaporates in tough economic times. Outdoor brands, especially smaller ones, may be better off attracting a die-hard, technical buyer whose hard/soft good purchases are more required spend rather than discretionary spend.

https://www.ispo.com/en/sports-business/outdoor-fashion-how-gen-z-defining-new-era-fashion

", + "Notes": "

How Gen Z is living the new outdoor feeling

Image credit: Messe München GmbH

AUTHOR:

Juliane Menge

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More than just a hobby or a challenge: for Gen Z, outdoor has a completely different significance than for previous generations and they express this through their fashion. We took a look at how their outdoor fashion game has evolved over the years, what they are looking for and what homework brands need to do now.

All insights at a glance:

Evolution of outdoor style: from gorpcore to a new attitude to life

The start of Gen Z's relationship with outdoor fashion: the gorpcore trend. OutDoor and fashion have long been a dream team. In the 1990s, rappers like Mase and Notorious B.I.G. made outdoor fashion street-ready and laid the foundations for the gorpcore trend - with windbreakers, colorful cargo pants and dad sneakers.

A lot has happened since then: the term \"gorpcore\" is no longer enough to describe the complex interweaving of sport and fashion. The two worlds have long been closely linked. The trend will become even stronger in 2024. It's about much more than just making outdoor pieces an integral part of the world's streets and catwalks. Gen Z and soon Gen Alpha are completely redefining outdoor as a lifestyle - and expressing this through their clothing in particular.

Gorpcore

The term is made up of the fashion style \"normcore\" (from \"normal\"), which stands for inconspicuous unisex clothing, and the acronym GORP. \"gool ol' raisins and peanuts\" is another term for the trail mix popular among hikers. The term Gorpcore first appeared in 2017 in \"the Cut\", the fashion blog of New York Magazine, and described the entry of functional clothing such as colorful fleece and outdoor jackets, robust hiking boots and hiking pants into our everyday lives. The coronavirus pandemic gave the gorpcore trend another boost: According to a McKinsey report sales of outdoor products increased by 24% in 2022 compared to pre-coronavirus times.

In the keynote at ISPO Munich 2023, Highsnobiety explained which four aspects are driving this development:

think out of the door: June 3-5, 2024.

Why you shouldn't miss OutDoor by ISPO 2024:
— Place to be for your brand presentation
— New food for thought for your business
— Forum for the solutions of tomorrow
Together we master the challenges of the global outdoor market!

DISCOVER OUTDOOR BY ISPO 2024!

We show three trends that have emerged from this:

1. Outdoor as the new luxury

Functional, ugly, sloppy - outdoor clothing has long since shed its old image. The new store design of traditional outdoor brands shows that sportswear has arrived in the middle of the high fashion scene. The Arc'teryx flagship store in Beijing, for example, could just as easily be a fashion boutique as a contemporary museum and offers shoppers a luxury experience that only fashion labels usually do.

Conscious Millenials: What makes Generation TikTok tick?

Ever since Rihanna wore colorful Salomons at the Superbowl Halftime Show, hiking boots and functional sneakers have been among the favorite pieces of A-listers, from Bella Hadid to EmRata. Functional fabrics such as Gore-Tex have become luxury attributes, and collaborations between sports and fashion brands have long been the order of the day (keyword: Gucci and The North Face). Whether Moncler, Prada or Balenciaga - almost every high fashion label also has an outdoor collection.

The result is a fashion mix that works just as well on a Sunday brunch in the city as it does on a hike afterwards.

These are currently the top 10 brands in outdoor fashion:

How the outdoor industry is holding its own against fast fashion

2. Outdoor for everyone - without any pressure to perform

Gen Z is the first generation that no longer knows a life without social media. This goes hand in hand with constant pressure to compare themselves and get the most out of themselves. They have recognized outdoor as an opportunity to consciously switch off and escape reality. The focus is not on performance and pushing oneself to the limit, but on the experience itself.

A TikTok trend that reflects this: Soft Hiking. Hiking for everyone, gentle tours with low demands to enjoy nature and relieve stress. What should not be missing is the opportunity for self-expression, and here the focus is on fashion - which also reflects the inclusion and creativity of the new definition of OutDoor.

Even before coronavirus, brands such as Adidas were already embracing the new, more relaxed relationship with outdoor sports. The \"Adidas Gardening Club\" was intended to be an alternative to the sporting ambition and performance aspect that other products otherwise radiated. Outdoor yes, but soft, please!

These are the most popular sports brands on Instagram

3. Diverse target groups: between Ugly Fashion and Quiet Outdoor

Another development that brands should have on their radar: the ever-increasing splitting of their target groups. Between the sporty, ambitious, performance-oriented buyers and the gorpcore enthusiasts, there are numerous other trends and gradations.

One niche: creative and unique pieces that are based on the ugly fashion trend and only hint at the functional outdoor aspect. We see this above all in shoes, whether hiking loafers, chunky sneakers or the hiking boots worn by Venus Williams at the Louis Vuitton show. The weirder, the better! Highsnobiety writes in its whitepaper \"the new luxury\":

\"It's never been so cool (and so profitable), \"strange\" to be. The luxury goods industry has embraced the niche to give mass consumers a sense of novelty and variety. The opposite is true: the niche is a commercial advantage, and the profit margin is the mainstream.\"

Sustainable sports fashion: everything you need to know

According to the report, 44 percent of respondents like things that the mainstream would describe as strange or ugly - ironically making them the new majority.

The stark contrast to this: Quiet Outdoor, sleeke, subtle and almost futuristic outdoor clothing in muted colors and with technical details.

TEXTRENDS

Sports fashion trends 2024: quiet outdoor & classic nostalgia

After mountaincore and gorpcore: how fashion and sportswear are creating new genres.

read more

Homework for brands

These trends pose two challenges for traditional sports and outdoor brands.

The first is to get to know the new target groups, give them what they need and stay in touch. Despite this diversification, brands must not lose their core and must remain true to themselves. From performance-oriented athletes to sneakerheads: they all love fashion and the outdoors - each in a different way.

The second challenge is also the biggest opportunity: Gen Z is looking for brands that will take them by the hand. This is because they lack the time and expertise to pursue their passion for the outdoors. 67 percent of those surveyed in a report by Y-Pulse would describe themselves as \"outdoorsy\", but feel that their time capacities and skills do not reflect this. 38 percent even say that they do not feel welcome in the outdoor community. Whether brand trips or outdoor experiences - it takes more than just products!

The big benefit: If brands gain the trust of Gen Z, they have the chance to attract customers who will remain loyal to the brand for a lifetime.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4072.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4072.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..406a49b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4072.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4072", + "Date": "3/11/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4072__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "What is going on in Canada? The country had a tough time in the 1990's due to government debt issues, then recovered nicely, but now we see a huge uptick.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4088.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4088.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f7b7324 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4088.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4088", + "Date": "3/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4088__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart caught my eye and speaks a lot, as it provides guidance into future consumer spending.

Money market funds assets are at an all-time high. Higher rates that we have now allow people to earn a decent low risk return.

But when rates start to fall (really hard to tell but maybe later this year the Fed will start dropping), that will probably unleash a move away from money market funds into riskier assets, meaning liquidity goes up, which will pump equity markets, pump investments, pump consumer spending because equity markets are doing well, and pump tax receipts. Inflation will turn up as well, but the Fed will accept a new higher normal.

Since the 2008 GFC, liquidity in the form of cash (printed by the Federal Reserve and distributed by the federal government through many spending programs) is the main driver of all economic activity. We keep an eye on liquidity to see where things go.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4091.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4091.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cb5aa03 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4091.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4091", + "Date": "3/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4091__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Something like 97% of sales of physical consumer products are from new, but we are heading into an era where revenue needs to be balanced between new, used, rental, membership, repair and variations thereof.

I found this membership program from a ski manufacturer interesting, where members can swap out skis for latest models every 2-years.

The brand is raising a funding round to support this concept.

They state that current LTV (customer lifetime value) is $1800 and intend to raise it to $6600 with the membership program. Essentially they seek to create captive customers, boosting their ROAS and lowering the marketing costs by keeping customers rather than having to acquire new ones to replace the ones that leave.

https://netcapital.com/companies/renounskis

I am attaching a screenshot of the fundraising page should it go away in the future.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4136.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4136.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eb7d413 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4136.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4136", + "Date": "4/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4136__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Travel activities and expenditures continue to climb. Take into account continued government deficit spending, a strong equity market, higher interest rates that pays out to investors in US debt and labor demand, people are spending and traveling.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4137.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4137.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..27958c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4137.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4137", + "Date": "4/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4137__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

US household financial assets allocation. We are at peaks for equities. Debt is low, which is good, and cash is low, which is surprising considering how much cash is still sitting in money markets. Can't rule out some sort of correction in equity markets at these levels.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4154.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4154.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5d4ed6e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4154.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4154", + "Date": "4/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4154__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

These charts look at the mindset and future outcome expectations among U.S. 12th graders over time, grouped by generation (baby boomers, Gen x, Millennials, Gen Z).

We see dramatic changes with Gen Z, which makes sense given that we are at the end of an era that is characterized but significant stress and conflict.

But the interesting observation is Gen X in the 1990s. I am Gen X and recall pessimism that arose as a result of the 1991 Gulf War. Could there have been pessimism also surrounding the fall of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact alliance? I remember those events more optimistically.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4155.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4155.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..459d7ce --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4155.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4155", + "Date": "4/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4155__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Debt is a function of growing economies and is critical, but when does it become a problem? This is interesting chart looking over the decades:

1. We see dramatic increased steepness in 1980-2000 - an era of growth and prosperity brought on from the post 1970's difficulties;

2. More steepness 2000-2010, characterized by real estate going crazy and the Internet revolution moving into mainstream;

3. A fall with deleveraging from the 2008 GFC;

4. Less steep in the 2010's from the GFC hangover

5. A dramatic increase in steepness in the 2020's, which is a factor of federal government debt spiraling out of control.

Private sector debt OK at present, but government debt will be a problem, which then may cause problems in the private sector as the economy turns because it is not getting stimulus from government debt spending.
", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4172.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4172.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ec19aed --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4172.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4172", + "Date": "4/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4172__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Chart showing Americans planning to vacation abroad - 6 month moving average. International travel continues its aggressive up trend. I always look for trends with hockey sticks or parabolic increases, because at some point, these kinds of aggressive up trends crash, so one has to plan for that and anticipate its effects. Wonder when this trend will reverse, either leveling off or crash back down to normal trend.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4174.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4174.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f994c7e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4174.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4174", + "Date": "4/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4174__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

IMF projections for growth five years out. We're in a tougher era now after the 1945-2015 era, which was one of growth and prosperity. Now, we have climate change/natural disasters, resource constraints, deglobalization, nationalistic priorities, conflicts, and generally unfavorable demographics. This won't reverse for the U.S. till maybe the mid 2030s, and the rest of the world, except for some pockets, it will only get worse.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4175.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4175.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..afff8af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4175.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4175", + "Date": "4/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I am convinced that the solutions to many our our challenges already exist. The challenge is finding and leveraging their potential as quickly and as efficiently as possible. There is so much going on that it is impossible for anyone or any company to keep track of it all. I think success lies in the details, which easily get missed. A innovation that happens in one remote corner of an industry that could be pivotal in a remote corner of a completely unrelated industry goes unfound. This is where AI will shine, as it can remember everything and surface what needs to be found and deliver it to who needs to know it. That is the promise of Halcyon, which is focused on the energy transition/decarbonization/sustainability sector and is building a platform that will take this sea of information and couple it with AI to help practitioners find the data they need to help accelerate the move towards decarbonization. Its a great sector to target because we need to move towards sustainability a lot faster than we are now. AI could really help. Maybe what they are building could become a template for other industries as well.

https://halcyon.eco/blog/hello-world

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4177.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4177.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3d91e3e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4177.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4177", + "Date": "4/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4177__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A chart showing CEO-to-worker-compensation in 1960's. This dovetails with the wealth inequality that I have previously posted about, which is a root cause for so much of our political, generational, and societal conflict. But over the next decade or two, history shows that the pendulum should should start to swing back as taxes and other forms of wealth transfer aim to correct this.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4205.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4205.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a04c24 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4205.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4205", + "Date": "4/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a short post speaking truths about current geopolitical strategies of US/Europe adversaries that is designed to increase pressure on our already precarious finances. I agree with it.

But its one-sided, ignoring the same financial and geopolitical pressures that the US/Europe is also inflicting on adversaries (China/Russia/Iran).

No one wins in this game, its more about who looses less. Over the long-term, the US (not Europe) is still significantly advantaged.

https://drpippa.substack.com/p/berliner-jiu-jitsu-jupiter-why-geopolitics

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4207.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4207.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0d240c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4207.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4207", + "Date": "4/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4207__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The main problem illustrated by this slide is how long we have been running deficits (over 20-years), which means that our entire economic structure has aligned around this imbalance. Its not just a little bit of overspend, but 50% more than we take in, year after year.

At some point, when we have to reign in spending and reduce the debt (which is currently projected sometime in the next 6-years or so), that will produce significant market effects that could possibly crater consumer spending.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4209.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4209.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..782b39e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4209.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4209", + "Date": "4/30/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4209__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I am seeing post like this repeatedly concerning commercial real estate. Class A office space for sure, but this is the first I have seen for lodging.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4211.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4211.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fa5a14c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4211.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4211", + "Date": "4/30/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4211__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is an interesting look at at government PCE data showing the spend index relative to 2007 for certain categories and the outsized spend in recreational goods. I suspect a lot of this spend was compressed into the COVID time frame and considering depressed spend in the category for the 2023 and so far, 2024 years, it is not a new normal for the category.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4220.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4220.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..568e825 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4220.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4220", + "Date": "5/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4220__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interesting chart on fast food menu prices outpacing inflation over the last 10 years.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4221.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4221.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..98ee541 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4221.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4221", + "Date": "5/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "4221__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

One overriding story with China is that it is in demographic collapse, which means GDP and its standing in the world will drop. The question is how long will this take?

One narrative says this decade.

Another says a few decades, if not more, because as an authoritarian country, it has a lot of power to force its population to do things that could postpone its demise.

Either way, the effects would be enormous because China is the biggest intermediate processor of resources and goods.

The only solution is to diversify manufacturing away from China. If China collapses in a decade, that is a huge problem because the U.S. can't reindustrialize or nearshore/friendshore that quickly. A few decades is better.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4222.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4222.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..df851cb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4222.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4222", + "Date": "5/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "4222__File_URL.pdf", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

M2 is a number I watch because it is a measure of liquidity in the economy (put out by government fiscal spending and monetary policies), which now drives all economic activity (see this post explaining why: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_what-d... )

After 18-months, it has turned positive, which means economic activity will likely increase.

And looking at it over time (slide 2), it is well above historical trend. At some point all this will crash back down, at least to trend or below, which will crater the U.S. economy (maybe the world, too) because M2 drives all economic activity.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4230.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4230.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce94c9e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4230.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4230", + "Date": "5/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4230__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We're in a deglobalization era due to a variety of reasons that is forcing reshoring/friendshoring/nearshoring, which is inflationary.

But, this is an interesting slide that helps capture inflation vs deflation relative to emerging vs developed markets.

Considering that emerging markets may experience deflationary forces over the next decade or two (vs inflation forces that developed markets like US will experience), could emerging markets be entering a period similar to the US from 1980 to 2015, where deflation is the rule and a long-term secular growth cycle is at hand?

It is possible, which means emerging markets may offer excellent growth potential - but not without risk that needs to be managed. The 1980-2015 era for developed markets was once of less geopolitical and environmental risk than what we see happening now.

This added to Foreign Markets slide in New Normal slideshare

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4245.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4245.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63ce6cc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4245.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4245", + "Date": "5/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4245__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Great chart on corporate and personal income taxes since 1909. Taxes on wealthy and corporations are low now, but they will swing back higher to help balance out the wealth inequality and fund government spending. No choice...either we do this, or else we experience serious civil unrest, possibly civil war and a breakup of the U.S.

This chart added to Wealth Inequality section of the Business Cycles slideshare.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4246.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4246.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ac447c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4246.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4246", + "Date": "5/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4246__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

qfvjqevfeq

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4248.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4248.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..00859c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4248.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4248", + "Date": "5/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4248__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

There's many categories of debt that are tracked so we can gauge the levels of leverage in the economy. A new category not being tracked, referred to as phantom debt, is buy now pay later. This means there is more debt and leverage in the economy than official numbers are telling us.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4249.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4249.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7c5c074 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4249.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4249", + "Date": "5/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4249__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

If Europe really wanted to end the war in Ukraine, it could very quickly via a massive increase in military aid along with comprehensive sanctions and stopping sales of products to Russia via intermediary countries. But clearly, Europe prefers to continue selling to Russia instead. This is a rational choice in many ways because if sales to Russia stopped, the European economy would tank even further than it has.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4258.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4258.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..afa971d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4258.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4258", + "Date": "5/11/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4258__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Chart on young adults/ willingness to fight for their country. 40% for U.S. is snot nothing, but, man, 60% is a solid majority. We just are not inspiring people right now. This tracks with the current state of our society and culture that is Me Vs. You, which I include in my published futurist predictions, action plans and tools.

We currently relate from a basis of antagonism, competition and me vs you. We’re in it for ourselves, our families and our tribes. There is a rush to amass wealth. There is epidemic of loneliness and mental health issues as a result, which includes a large population of disaffected young males and fatherless families All of this parallels the polarization and wealth inequality we are experiencing.

But history suggests this will reverse as group cooperation, civic activity, public consensus and solidarity return as society seeks harmony and peace following the difficulties of The Reckoning period that is coming. We will seek to help each other more.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4268.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4268.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..54324a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4268.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4268", + "Date": "5/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Absolutely remarkable the human brain. This is a cubic millimeter, which is half the size of a grain of rice, which was mapped in 3D and includes over 57,000 cells, 230 millimeters of blood vessels, and 150 million synapses, and it required 1400 terabytes of storage.

https://singularityhub.com/2024/05/13/google-and-harvard-map-a-tiny-piece-of-the-human-brain-with-extreme-precision/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4269.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4269.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b7d648 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4269.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4269", + "Date": "5/15/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4269__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "The percentage of small capitalization publicly traded companies that are unprofitable keeps rising. A long term trend supported by extraordinary amounts of excess cash building for decades available from investors, but at some point as economic conditions worse, this will correct.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4270.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4270.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3af4d81 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4270.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4270", + "Date": "5/15/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4270__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

It just won't stop rising. Yet climate change is not on the radar of most Americans. We like the idea of sustainability and surveys say we care about the environment, but I learned long ago you can't trust surveys. You have to watch people's actions and how they spend their money to gauge what they really care about. At present, Americans show no concern for climate change based on their actions and how they spend their money. This won't change until it gets much worse, where people are finally shocked into action because of climate catastrophes which threaten their existence. And by then it might be too late because we could be past tipping points where fixes won't let us correct back to normal. We could already be past tipping points.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4271.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4271.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85ce101 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4271.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4271", + "Date": "5/15/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4271__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Everyone is on the re-export racket of Western goods to Russia via the Stans countries. Sanctions are useless. Everyone says they support Ukraine, but only in so far as it does not hurt their income.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4282.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4282.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f08cad9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4282.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4282", + "Date": "5/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Copper can't be mined fast enough to electrify.

We have two twin challenges: (1) just keeping up with electricity needs; (2) transitioning to green.

The authors estimate just to keep up - forget transitioning to green infrastructure - the world will need to mine 115% more copper than has been mined in all of human history up until 2018. Our future is one of resource constraints, unlike the recent past where from 1945 till about 2015, we had an era of abundance and got just about anything we wanted, when we wanted it. We will have to make decisions about what we want to do with the resources we have.

However, the problem according to the authors appears to be the permitting process to bring on new mines, which takes average of 20-years. We have the know how, tech and resources, we just need to speed up the process.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/05/240515164309.htm#google_vignette

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4286.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4286.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a73527 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4286.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4286", + "Date": "5/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4286__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Rising insurance costs are another source of inflation and will only continue. In the decade from 1980 to 1989, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported only eight severe storms that each caused $1 billion (inflation adjusted) or more in damage. There have been 67 such storms in the US just since 2019.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/summary-stats/US/2019-2024

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4321.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4321.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..118c3b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4321.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4321", + "Date": "5/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4321__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I believe the probability for a Taiwan invasion/blockade is dramatically increasing. Bloomberg puts its at 1 in 4; I think it is higher, maybe much higher.

We used to base rationale for an invasion on economics - China will never do it because they would crater their economy from their dependence on the world for resources and exports. Many thought the same about Russia and Ukraine.

Why is China stockpiling oil and resources? Why is China opening two new coal plants a week, despite the massive environmental damage? Why is China reducing its US Treasury holdings, that with rates where they are now, are a clear source of income?

China is not motivated by economics but by ideology. They are also imploding from poor demographics, so they have nothing to lose through an invasion. And with centralization of power into one man - Xi - there is no balance of voices in Chinese leadership to temper such actions.

China’s people have no say in this and Chinese leadership do not care about economic consequences as they have firm control over the population.

Russia was an excellent test case for China and where is Russia now? Most western countries have gotten around sanctions by exporting resources, supplies and product to Russia through intermediary countries (see https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks). Their economy is doing rather well and western countries are waning in their support of Ukraine.

The new block that is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela realize that the west is more concerned with its income and standard of living than any ideology or moral high ground. And they are exploiting that.

So we have to prepare for that and expect a GDP shock of almost 7%. For comparison, the GFC of 2008 produced a 3% fall in GDP.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4334.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4334.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..41bdad5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4334.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4334", + "Date": "5/30/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4334__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

For the first time in history in the U.S., billionaires had a lower effective tax rate than working-class Americans. The unfairness in our tax systems is extreme and is the source of our conflict and polarization. The source of immense prosperity and success for the U.S. over the last 8 decades was because we had a large, vibrant middle class. America's ruling political and wealth class have to come together - as they did in the 1920's and 1930's - to reverse this, otherwise we are face massive social, cultural and economic problems, that will lead to civil unrest if not civil war.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4336.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4336.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c67cd24 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4336.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4336", + "Date": "5/31/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4336__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Manufacturers' shipments: defense capital goods. One industry that will continue to grow considering the growing conflicts and risks we face.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4345.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4345.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..085677c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4345.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4345", + "Date": "6/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4345__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Incumbent backlash has started and will grow wide and deep.

I created this term in my futurist work to characterize how anything of the old order will be severely penalized in retribution for many of our problems.

The old order includes (1) older generations, (2) big, established, influential companies of the old order, (3) rich, influential business leaders that made their money in the old order, (4) entrenched lobbying interests of the old order, (5) government institutions.

Oil is the first target, but I think it will extend wide and deep to any company that is characterized as part of the old order, whether its warranted or not.

Consumers will believe - and rightfully so - that the old order gave them all our problems and did not do enough when they were in power to fix them.

https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/g-s1-2359/vermont-first-state-oil-companies-pay-climate-change-damages

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4346.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4346.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ad677c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4346.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4346", + "Date": "6/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4346__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Segments of the economy chugging along, but serious cracks elsewhere, like residential housing. A recession should still be expected this year, if not already here.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4347.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4347.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07ea35f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4347.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4347", + "Date": "6/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4347__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Wow...amazes me at how low these numbers are . Consider that probably half of our waking time is spent on work and so few people derive no meaning from it.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4348.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4348.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56b05cd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4348.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4348", + "Date": "6/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4348__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Fantastic chart - we need to keep it going to reindustrialize America

\"Chips Act is attracting insane amount of investment. US is now on pace to add more investment in electronics manufacturing construction this year alone as it did TOTAL from 1996 until passage of the chips act in 2020 (funding not yet secured then, but investment started)\" - via https://x.com/ChorzempaMartin/status/1796649970335994067

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4350.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4350.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..76eee00 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4350.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4350", + "Date": "6/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4350__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Added a slide to the robotics section of the Exponential Technologies slideshare on wearable motor augmentation

Exosuits are emerging to help with human mobility and enhance activities. Think of activities we can do more of and longer or continue to do as we age.

Here's a variation called wearable motor augmentation to enhance biological capabilities.

https://www.popsci.com/technology/robotic-third-thumb/

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4382.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4382.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..91a26e1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4382.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4382", + "Date": "6/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Great article

Only 13% of consumers identify as brand loyalists. Marketers mistake repeat purchasing as brand loyalty because for most consumers it comes down to speed, ease and habit.

Creating true brand loyalty is about positive experiences fueled by dopamine that drive repeat behavior.

https://www.marketingweek.com/marketers-overestimate-brand-loyalty/?utm_source=tldrmarketing

", + "Notes": "

Marketers ‘overestimate’ chances of achieving brand loyalty, study finds

A new comprehensive study into the science of loyalty reveals key drivers of consumer behaviour, highlighting how marketers can succeed in the “phenomenally hard” task of engendering loyalty.


By Ellen Hammett 12 Jun 2024

Fewer people are ‘fans’ of brands than marketers may think, according to a new study, which reveals speed, ease and habit trump everything else when it comes to driving loyalty.


In fact, just 13% of consumers identify as being a ‘fan’ of a brand, according to the Science of Loyalty research, which defines this as feeling a “deep sense of belonging and attachment”.


By contrast, an overwhelming majority (97%) say speed and ease is the biggest driver of repeat purchases, while 26% claim it is because such purchases are part of a routine.


Over a third (35%) of consumers, meanwhile, say it’s important for brands to make them “feel good”.


According to Richard Shotton, founder of behavioural science agency Astroten and a co-collaborator of the report, brand loyalty – whereby consumers avoid better alternatives out of a sense of obligation or passion – is actually “phenomenally hard” to achieve.


Don’t just target an audience, target their mood

“The danger is that marketers overestimate their chances of achieving that and maybe convert their budget into smaller sales rather than pursuing the much simpler goal of habit,” Shotton explains.


The research – carried out by Canvas8 and Intuit Mailchimp and conducted with 4,000 respondents across the UK, US, Australia and Canada – also found that a significant proportion of repurchases (22%) occur simply because a brand or product was readily available, while 40% happen as a result of a customer actively preferring a brand to the others available.


“Often, what we call loyalty is probably much more passive. It’s more like a habit,” adds Shotton. “Rather than genuine loyalty, it’s people repeating behaviours because that’s what they’ve done in the past or it’s too much of a hassle to switch.”


Understanding behaviours and approaches

The report identifies four neurobiological principles of loyalty – reward, memory, emotion and social interaction – which determine what makes a consumer likely to become loyal. For example, while emotional brand experiences foster loyalty, so do brands that acknowledge and reward consumers for their patronage.


As the report notes: “Positive experiences fuelled by dopamine drive repeat behaviour.”


In terms of memory, cognitive bias towards the familiar influences preference, while repeating past behaviour simplifies decision-making.


Additionally, conforming to social behaviours influences decisions, and belonging and community are sought through brand affiliation.


Bloom & Wild focuses on customer retention over acquisition as it chases profitability

The report outlines four key customer groups to help marketers understand where their audiences lie. ‘Inert customers’, for example, are likely to choose a brand for convenience, availability, discounts or popularity, while ‘habitual customers’ primarily consider product category over brand.


‘Dedicated customers’ are emotionally engaged with a strong preference for their chosen brand, and ‘fandom customers’ feel that deep sense of belonging and attachment to a particular brand.


Anna Waletzko, an analyst at Canvas8, explains: “Most brands will likely have prospects and customers that span the commitment spectrum, but by better understanding where each target group lies, they are better able to select the right approaches for each.”


Gamification, shared values and personalisation

Focusing on the tactical side of loyalty, gamification and shared values are highlighted as effective methods for boosting loyalty, alongside a variety of other tactics, including peer-to-peer marketing and personalisation.


According to the research, 29% of repeat purchasers said they would like to receive loyalty perks from their preferred brand, yet only 16% have joined a loyalty benefits programme. Gamifying rewards could therefore help to foster a greater sense of achievement and fun.


The three-quarters (74%) of fans who say they share values with their preferred brand (vs 68% of the total sample), meanwhile, indicates brands that align with cultural niches or values are well-placed to build emotional resonance.


Scientific findings should be replicated somewhere other than PowerPoint

This must, however, be done authentically and demonstrated through meaningful actions. Anything else could be viewed as ‘purpose-washing’ and risk doing more harm to brands than good.


The data further shows personalised rewards programmes can help to boost satisfaction, with 45% of repeat purchasers liking their preferred brand to provide deals or discounts. Interestingly, though, incentives are not always monetary; almost nine in 10 consumers (87%) said their preferred brand made them “feel good”, cited as another key driver of loyalty.


Encouraging peer-to-peer marketing through gift giving could also help to convert infrequent purchasers into fans. The data shows that 37% of consumers have recommended their preferred brand to friends or family, but only 22% have given it as a gift, highlighting a potential untapped channel for spreading the word about a brand.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4384.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4384.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63432c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4384.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4384", + "Date": "6/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4384__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Economic conditions are optimal for higher income quintiles, with asset prices at highs and healthy interest on money market accounts, all of which incentivizes spending, which is really helping power the economy. As this chart shows, the top 2 quintiles of income earners power 2/3 of consumer consumption. As along as asset prices and money market cash keeps flowing, we should expect continued strength on consumer consumption.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4385.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4385.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ade7a9d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4385.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4385", + "Date": "6/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4385__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "The attached chart shows an all time high in liquid assets held by companies. Companies with substantial cash, like consumers with the same, are benefiting greatly from high rates through interest income, which benefits shareholders.
", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4386.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4386.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..83e12c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4386.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4386", + "Date": "6/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4386__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Scary chart. Our economy is hugely dependent on U.S. government expenditures. What happens when government expenditures go down? It is not if, but when, because at some point, the U.S. government cannot keep spending more than it earns.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4387.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4387.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3745427 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4387.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4387", + "Date": "6/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4387__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Based on history, except for small cap companies, the percentage of unprofitable companies at present is lower. This is a positive sign for the economy at present.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4388.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4388.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6626a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4388.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4388", + "Date": "6/19/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4388__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Survey from Pew research earlier this year on Americans' priorities for president and Congress. Too me, the sleeper catastrophe is climate change and the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters resulting from global warming. Unfortunately, these issues are quite low on the list. At some point, I think environmental issues will get so bad that it will quickly become the number one issue.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4397.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4397.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..64d67f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4397.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4397", + "Date": "6/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4397__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I expect more wealth will be coming to the U.S. (and Canada by extension) in the coming decades as we will have the best, if not the only really well-performing economy.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4403.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4403.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..642e1af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4403.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4403", + "Date": "6/23/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4403__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

An interesting perspective on durable goods sales. The GFC crisis shocked consumption lower, then COVID shocked it back up. Is this return to the upper bounds a new normal for durable goods, or temporary? Diving into PCE data, some categories are holding, but others are falling back down.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4404.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4404.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b82cb6e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4404.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4404", + "Date": "6/23/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4404__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Buying conditions for houses is really dismal at present. No wonder why the residential real estate market has frozen up.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4405.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4405.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..61c47ca --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4405.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4405", + "Date": "6/23/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4405__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S private sector debt is currently low and manageable based on economic conditions; its our government debt that will be a huge problem in coming years. But when our government debt becomes a problem, the private sector debt will become a problem because government spending will fall (maybe crash?), which means the private sector spending will also fall (crash?), and then private sector debt, no matter the levels, will become a problem. A viscous cycle we have to look forward to. But it will be even worse in other countries.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4411.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4411.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e16b304 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4411.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4411", + "Date": "6/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4411__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Survey on U.S. buying conditions for homes is terrible - a factor of higher interest rates, depressed affordability, lack of supply, increasing home insurance costs

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4412.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4412.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..57269fb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4412.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4412", + "Date": "6/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4412__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Truth

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4419.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4419.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7fdd385 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4419.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4419", + "Date": "6/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4419__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Household stock allocation at an all-time high. I think it will go higher over next few years before it crashes back down due to significant market drawdowns.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4424.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4424.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07505c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4424.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4424", + "Date": "7/1/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4424__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Residential housing is in a paradox, where price continue to climb, yet sales is in recession territory. Blame the lack of housing that contributes to limited supply, and for the limited demand that exists in the marketplace, it is pushing up prices. Note that this trend is a snapshot aggregating the entire U.S. market. Not all local markets are experiencing this paradox.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4425.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4425.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a2810a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4425.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4425", + "Date": "7/1/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4425__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This shows money market funds relative to interest rates. You would think that when rates are low, money market funds are low as well because owners have their cash invested in riskier assets to generate a return (bonds, stocks, real estate, etc.). But the data proves that is not really the case. Thus, when interest rates go down, we cannot assume that this will cause a movement from money market funds into riskier assets like stocks, powering them higher.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4437.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4437.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eab98f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4437.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4437", + "Date": "7/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-01/what-s-upflation-new-retail-trend-is-driving-up-prices-for-us-consumers…\nI think the long nightmare for CPG brands is just starting. Compared to basic alternatives, what value do they really provide? Not much at all. We've entered an era where inflation and economic uncertainty is causing consumers to buy less stuff and seek cheaper, more basic alternatives that do just as good. Innovation and revolutionary improvements are long past; its now small evolutionary improvements that consumers don't really care about and not worth the price premiums. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4438.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4438.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8be12b0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4438.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4438", + "Date": "7/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4438__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

US government budget deficits since 1900. Under the current environment of political paralysis coupled with sky rocketing costs associated with inflation, defense spending, entitlement costs, this train is not stopping. Folks, we are going to hit the wall at some point inside the next 10-years and it will be an absolute dumpster fire. Get ready.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4443.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4443.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f90a1f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4443.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4443", + "Date": "7/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4443__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

American pride is near record low, which is understandable, but things will improve. While we're in for very tough times ahead economically, socially, politically, geopolitically, and due to environmental changes, we will get past many of our pressing issues and people will again be proud to be called Americans. We are in a class all our own considering the tremendous assets we possess: Demographics + Access to Natural Resources + Vibrant Consumer Markets + Wealth + Military Strength + Infrastructure + Educated Population. It is these strengths that we will leverage to pull us through our difficulties. I publish my predictions and action plans, discussing the difficulties ahead - what I call The Reckoning - but also the things we have to look forward to - what I call The Resurgence. There are all on my Future Map page: https://eddiesoehnel.com/future-map-for-consumer-brands/

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4446.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4446.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a600152 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4446.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4446", + "Date": "7/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Google", + "File": "", + "Image": "4446__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Environmental catastrophes in frequency and severity continue to increase, demanding the need to reduce carbon output, yet a green society requires we increase carbon output to build the future that supports renewable living. That is the immense challenge. Take Google, a company with the margin ($) and a relatively straightforward business to decarbonize, and yet they are having immense difficulties reducing their carbon output because of skyrocketing emissions for electricity around AI that will be critical to a green future. How do we solve this? It's seems the only solution is to massively up-end society and economics by going full throttle for 5-years to build the infrastructure for a green future, trashing carbon output, but then at the 5-year mark, carbon output falls to nothing. While we need that, sadly, there is no way we have the resources in mining to see that future happen at a lightening-fast rate.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4447.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4447.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..66a8ebd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4447.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4447", + "Date": "7/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4447__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I hear from sources that China is artificially keeping prices low across many, if not all, commodity and product categories to keep their dismal economy going and their population employed. The country is collapsing across many dimensions, which means they are exporting deflation in a world that is seeing resource constraints and costs rising across the board. This does not end well for China, certainly, but the world, which has come to depend on the country to do massive intermediate processing and production.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4451.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4451.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7545a96 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4451.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4451", + "Date": "7/12/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This program is a great model for increasing funding to Colorado public lands from the private sector. We need new business models like this to support public lands, whose funding may be decimated later this decade due to massive government debt and economic imbalances that will crate our economy.

It adds $29 to license plate renewals, unless people opt-out. While there is a 70% opt-out rate, the program in its first year generated $41 million, which supports Colorado Parks And Wildlife, avalanche forecasting and rescue groups.

The 2021 legislation that created the program hoped to generate more revenue than the annual $80 parks pass, which delivered $23 million to Colorado Parks And Wildlife in 2020.

Thus far the program is working better than expected. Visitation patterns have not yet been released for the first year. It may take a few years to determine the additional revenue against increased visitation and those associated costs. However, this program dramatically reduces the friction required to get a pass while adding revenue to the state’s public lands.

https://coloradosun.com/2024/07/09/keep-colorado-wild-pass-sales-cpw/

", + "Notes": "

https://coloradosun.com/2024/07/09/keep-colorado-wild-pass-sales-cpw/

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4456.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4456.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..219c367 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4456.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4456", + "Date": "7/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4456__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A long-term graph on U.S. office vacancy rate and where we are now. Even before COVID it was climbing resulting from secular shift towards WFH and freelancing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4457.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4457.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f93f728 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4457.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4457", + "Date": "7/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4457__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Another interesting model view on current U.S. stock valuation.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4458.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4458.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce29f70 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4458.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4458", + "Date": "7/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4458__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Are Turkey and Brazil funding Russia's war machine, or are they getting cheap imports. Both perspectives are true - the first from the West's, and the second from Turkey/Brazil, who are doing what they need to do to help their economies.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4487.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4487.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..267c81a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4487.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4487", + "Date": "7/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a massive change that will upend content marketing and SEO. Google commands 80%+ of the search market. If this is the case universally, then there is much less value to creating content that is optimized for SEO and engaging in SEO tactics as well as hiring SEO experts.

Diving into this article (and others), it appears that Google is focused on indexing larger, established media sites, which cuts out smaller media properties. Google is also focused on indexing content from established community platforms like Reddit and Quora. The general conclusion is that for startups or small companies, content marketing and SEO is dead, unless done through established media and community properties.

https://www.vincentschmalbach.com/google-now-defau...

https://searchengineland.com/forums-google-adapt-4...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4493.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4493.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e26007e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4493.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4493", + "Date": "7/21/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A house on the New England island of Nantucket that was valued at $1.9 million recently sold for $200,000, because of climate change.

This is just the tip of the iceberg, as climate change from rising sea levels and increasingly catastrophic hurricanes, tornados, derechos, wind storms, rain deluges, hail, heat and wildfires makes property worth much less, or nothing at all.

Large swaths of southern states, lower and central midwest states and low lying coastal areas will become very challenging to live in or even uninhabitable due to climate change in the coming decades. Think of the massive loss of wealth that people and business have in property that will evaporate. Think of the massive need for housing in northern states as the migration reverses.

People need to think about moving sooner rather than later so they can extra value out of their property while they still can. And as companies reshore and reindustrialize due to deglobalization and resource constraints, they need to think ahead and locate in areas where there are fewer effects from climate change.

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/12/nantucket-beach-house-cliamte-change-housing-insurance

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4519.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4519.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dd9d696 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4519.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4519", + "Date": "7/23/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4519__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a fascinating snapshot of the extinction of cash . Digital payments reduce friction and are more convenient for buyers and sellers. But the larger effects of digital payments in the future will be realized through taxation, which is much easier in a digital system, and incentives, where governments can use digital to incentivize desired behaviors. Its not a question of if, but when cash is banned. I think this will happen in the next 10-years for the U.S. market.

But it is not all bad. Government systems like FedNow (US), Pix (Brazil) and Nexus (via Bank of Int'l Settlements) will usher in cost-less and instant digital payments (usurping debit and credit cards), while opening up new business models for micro-costed products/services.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4572.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4572.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eecb849 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4572.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4572", + "Date": "7/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4572__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Earth sees new record for hottest day. This is from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The trend turned up in the 1970's, then steepened in the early 1990's, followed by more steepening in the early 2010's. This train won't stop.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4574.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4574.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2aa3809 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4574.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4574", + "Date": "7/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4574__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A fantastic testament to Chinese manufacturing, which has massively grown its manufacturing capacity and efficiency over the decades. We would not have the products we have now without this incredible feat. But now that is a problem in that it has too much capacity, where it is selling production at artificially low prices, not just contributing to its losses, but is why countries everywhere where it imports are throwing up tariffs and trade restrictions. Manufacturing efficiency is a great thing, until it isn't. It no longer is for China or the world.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4575.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4575.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..536d2b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4575.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4575", + "Date": "7/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4575__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

China is flooding the markets with copper. It has so much excess capacity in manufacturing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4576.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4576.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d76db2a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4576.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4576", + "Date": "7/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4576__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We're in a K-shaped economy - the upper income segment is doing well, buoyed by high interest rates on cash balances and strong investment markets, while the lower income is hurting due to inflation, a slowing economy and high interest rates on revolving debt.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4577.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4577.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fbd443d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4577.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4577", + "Date": "7/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4577__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart is another perspective on our massive wealth inequality, going all the way back to 1940 showing the minimum wage in real levels relative to 2024 dollars. The shift happened in the 1970's, when our wealth inequality was at a generational low, which then turned up and has been increasing ever since. Wealth inequality is the source of our polarization and many of our societal and economic imbalances and difficulties. Starting in the 1970's, the white collar, service based economy prospered, while the blue collar economy was decimated as we exported our manufacturing. This produced half the economy that got the American dream, and the other half did not. A reckoning to correct this is coming.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4586.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4586.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..acdc6b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4586.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4586", + "Date": "7/29/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4586__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Looking at a few charts, significant increase in spend has occurred across entitlement spending (social security, medicare, etc). That increase appears concentrated in medicare and medicaid. Are there opportunities to get this under control? Possibly. Cleveland Clinic has a voluntary wellness program that cuts their costs relative to the national average by 38% and rising. 75% of employees participate, and those that do not pay more in healthcare costs. The average Medicare recipient generates expenses (in excess of their premiums) of about $13,730 in 2023; CBO expects that number to reach $22,170 in 2033. If we expanded the Cleveland Clinic program nationwide and cut the 22,170 by 40%, that would be enormous savings right there through voluntary participation in things that everyone can do to improve their health. But the lucky break in reducing health costs could be GLP-1 - that is, Ozempic, Mounjaro, and all GLP-1-related weight loss technology. More than 70% of the U.S. population is classified as obese with direct and indirect costs estimated at $1.7 trillion, not to mention the costs of the industrial food complex to addict you to unhealthy food and then hand you off to the Diabetes Industrial Complex. These drugs could massively disrupt not just the weightloss markets, but the junk food and health care markets, giving us an enormous reduction in health care costs that we never saw coming.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4594.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4594.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3e2a9ef --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4594.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4594", + "Date": "8/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Nike", + "File": "", + "Image": "4594__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Its easy to jump on the \"Bad Nike\" bandwagon in hindsight. 3 Years ago, everyone was singing their praises because they had a robust DTC model in the era of lockdowns and they were pioneering emerging business models and technology around metaverse, IP As Platform/Creator to Consumer (C2C), and digital. After 20-years of DTC and digital growth, where we all thought this trend won't stop, then the sudden shock of COVID reversed this and we all realized how much we crave IRL experiences. The market shifted fast and Nike was suddenly on the wrong side of the equation. Now everyone on the wholesale side is saying...\"see, I told you so\". That is a bad reaction. Nike is a pioneer and they take risks. That is business - you make your bets and live with the outcomes, whether they are good or bad. Nike made the wrong bets. Or did they? Their digital efforts may have laid the groundwork to benefit them from drastic shifts coming to us all in the future. See attached about IP As Platform/C2C

Nike: An Epic Saga of Value Destruction

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4595.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4595.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8666e36 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4595.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4595", + "Date": "8/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6337KenPucker", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Voluntary is not working...in all industries. We've tried that for decades and yet, environmental catastrophes continue to increase in number and size. Emerging business models to support sustainability are too slow in coming. At this point, the only thing we can do is force actions through taxes, regulations and industrial policy. I reference the airline industry with its own inability to decarbonize, despite sincere intentions. They can't get to where we need them to be without massive policy intervention. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-31...

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kenpucker_emissions-decarbonization-fashion-activity-7225070337028227072-qDo9?

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4596.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4596.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ad04e72 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4596.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4596", + "Date": "8/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "c5765StephenRegenold", + "Companies": "Arc’teryx", + "File": "", + "Image": "4596__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Yes, they will be normal and span many everyday uses cases. See attached pic of an example of \"wearable motor augmentation\" and a 6th finger. If we Apply Wright's Law - costs decrease by 10-20% with each doubling of production - and production doubles every 2-years, then after 3 doublings/6 years, cost is $3k. In 10 years, around $2.2K. But I think the limiting factor on exosuits/WMA is resource constraints. Consider our future with an exponential increase in (1) semiconductor chips, data centers, hardware/consumer tech and the (2) vast increases in electrification needed to run it all, that means a lot of (3) raw materials (mines, factories), which we barely have enough of already, (4) labor to help build it (another constraint) and in (5) light of the increasing geopolitical risks making it harder to source everything and hold together vast, distributed supply chains....the build out at economies of scale to lower prices maybe more like 15-20 years out, not 10. So it's a case of longer, slower build up, then we hit critical mass/tipping points, and build out/adoption goes vertical.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/regenold_arcteryx-e...

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4602.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4602.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dba89b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4602.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4602", + "Date": "8/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4602__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart tells a lot: (1) computing is centralized in the U.S.; (2) computing is extremely important to the world, which gives us a competitive advantage; (3) computing is here because we have the expertise, the demand and the most reliable and cost-effective energy system to support it; (4) this computing infrastructure is being augmented with AI, which consumers hordes of energy, so we need to massively scale up our energy generation and transmission system to meet this computing infrastructure; (5) this scale up will contribute to our reindustrialization, which is inflationary, but will contribute to tremendous economic growth for us.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4612.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4612.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8581037 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4612.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4612", + "Date": "8/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4612__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Residential electricity prices have doubled since 1990, averaging 3% inflation per year. But since 2020, that has steepened to 7.5% per year. This is likely to be the norm for decades as we need to significantly expand electrical generation and transmission to handle our massive reindustrialization and electrification.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4619.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4619.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c77182f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4619.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4619", + "Date": "8/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4619__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

China is the worlds largest intermediate processor of goods, yet it does not have a consumer driven consumption economy to support it, so it must rely on exports. Those exports are under severe pressure as countries deglobalize, reindustrialize and raise trade barriers to imports from China. China's demographics means it is past the era when it could rely on consumer drive consumption, which was never that great to begin with anyway. But without exports, what does the country have to fall back on? Nothing, unfortunately. Compare to the U.S. which has a strong consumer driven economy and is reindustrializing, which will give it another multi-decade boost.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4622.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4622.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4fde05a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4622.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4622", + "Date": "8/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Speaking with my futurist hat on, consolidation moves like this are in desperation as the long nightmare for CPG brands is just starting. Compared to basic alternatives, what value do they really provide? Nothing at all. We've entered an era where inflation and economic uncertainty is causing consumers to buy less stuff and seek cheaper, more basic alternatives that do just as good. This will only get worse as our economy continues to trend worse over this decade into a very deep recession. CPG's grew over 8 decades on the back of favorable demographics and societal wealth gains, selling discretionary items that don't provide any value. But all of that is coming to an end. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/andrea-hern%C3%A1ndez-3b7b951b6_should-mars-be-allowed-to-buy-kellanova-activity-7226250385596784640-aWiY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4631.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4631.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..79677c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4631.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4631", + "Date": "8/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Could the dominance of the U.S. oil industry mean synthetics become the most environmentally friendly materials to use? The U.S. has abundant petroleum supplies and advanced processing capabilities to create synthetic products. Considering that all of this is localized, synthetic products are highly cost-effective to make and recyclable. But because they are local, they are also emerging as the most sustainable material to use. If we can solve for microplastic shedding, synthetics, both new and recycled, may be the most sustainable and environmentally friendly materials in the U.S. market

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4633.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4633.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..62c8ec0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4633.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4633", + "Date": "8/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4633__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Chapter 11 filings reach highest level in more than a decade. This is higher but not too high compared to the GFC. There are a lot of zombie companies operating on cheap cash they got from the era of ultra low interest rates, which is running out.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4644.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4644.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a92e77e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4644.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4644", + "Date": "8/12/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4644__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

More stunning growth in assets of the wealthy class, at the detriment of the middle and lower classes. This is a long-term trend started in the 1970's, where we are now at peak levels of wealth inequality, similar to what we saw 100 years ago in the U.S. The root cause of so many of our societal, cultural and political turmoil is the result of wealth inequality that will have to correct, as it did 100 years ago, but which resulted in the incredible growth and success of the U.S. in the decades that followed. This chart shows 1100% growth in the assets of the wealthy over 35 years, or a 30% YoY growth, which is astounding. Imagine investing $100 today and in 35 years, it is worth $1 million.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4646.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4646.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..daac70c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4646.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4646", + "Date": "8/12/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4646__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

An interesting look at unemployment and how it rises. This hockey stick rise we see here is dominant everywhere, in nature as well as in human nature. Consider:

* That of melting ice - no apparent change from 0 to 32 degrees, but at 32.6, it becomes water showing massive and transformative change.

* That of a sand pile - keep dropping grains of sand long enough and you will eventually trigger an avalanche showing massive and transformative change.

* That of politics - Vladimir Lenin said there are years in politics when nothing happens. And then there are weeks when years happen.

* That of personal finance - Ernest Hemingway is often quoted as saying, \"How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.\" This quote is from his novel \"The Sun Also Rises,\"

* That is investing: meme investments that go parabolic.

It's all about tipping points, where conditions reach a critical state to take hold. There are many great works on this phenomena by Malcom Gladwell (culture), Seth Godin, (marketing) Geoffrey Moore (innovation), Elizer Yudkowsky (technology), Ray Kursweul (technology), Kevin Kelly (technology), Carolta Perz (technology), Amara's law (technology), Jonah Berger (culture).

We have to watch for tipping points across society, culture, economics, politics, environment and technology, which are exacerbated in our interconnected world, because things can change very quickly.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4649.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4649.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0c2c528 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4649.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4649", + "Date": "8/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4649__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

As American reindustrializes, there are many factors that go into where to locate facilities. Power reliability is one very important factor. This maps shows power outages reported, by 15-minute periods, by county as of 2022. This tools gives a good overview where power outages are much more frequent.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4659.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4659.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ff50d93 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4659.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4659", + "Date": "8/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Black Diamond Equipment", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This rides the trend of brand stores popping up everywhere, which will saturate (if not already) This is a twist where BD gets an existing location with less overhead and buildout expense, piggybacks off of WE brand and traffic and reputation and existing outdoor traffic (the area has fjallraven, Rab, REI and Confluence Kayaks). I like it and hope it works. This could be a model for BD elsewhere (and other brands). BD is shifting back to its roots targeting die-hards/technicals and away from discretionary, which is a good move in our market where the discretionary landscape is super competitive and under significant pressure (does not necessary mean the strategy will work, but its better than trying to sell to the discretionary market). I did a quick visit to WE last week after the announcements and the staff don't know much either. The main floor (street-level) will convert to BD products (1000 sq ft/100 sq. m), and WE products will shift to basement. No one knows anything else about street signage, product mix, marketing, etc.

via https://www.linkedin.com/posts/christianrawles_wilderness-exchange-and-black-diamond-equipment-activity-7229576662831525888-Ydp7?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4661.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4661.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2188e72 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4661.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4661", + "Date": "8/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4661__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Recent chart on inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales. We are still spending above long-term trend (straight line from before COVD), but trending down. I contend that in coming years (later this decade) we will dip below this long-term trend line as our economic difficulties increase, with high chance it manifests in another shock drop (serious recession), and a slow climb out over 5-years back to trend.
", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4663.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4663.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f1d2df4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4663.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4663", + "Date": "8/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4663__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interesting snapshot of central bank purchases of gold, which dramatically shifted after the Great Financial Crisis.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4664.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4664.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56f3359 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4664.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4664", + "Date": "8/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4664__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

An alarming chart. This shows real incomes (after accounting for inflation) have risen at a slower pace in this cycle than any other, despite four decade high *nominal* wage growth (nominal does not take inflation into account).

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4667.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4667.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..170581b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4667.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4667", + "Date": "8/23/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4667__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

I always like to find charts showing dramatic changes that cause me to take notice. Here's a few from a recent report I read on the private equity/credit market that mirrors the overvaluation we find in all assets markets (stocks, bonds, real estate, collectibles, etc).

This market's growth has turned parabolic, which is always a bad sign because it signifies irrational exuberance and FOMO, while the profits from the sector have plunged, which means valuations are completely unsupported.

This market is just like housing before the 2008 GFC - way overvalued with tremendous systemic risk to the rest of the financial system. Housing before the 2008 GFC crisis was valued at $25 trillion, while private equity/credit is valued currently at 8$ trillion, so its clearly not as big, but certainly not insignificant. The problem is the systemic risk from a collapse, hitting not just sophisticated investors who lose capital, but thousands of companies going bankrupt (leading to layoffs), and pension funds loosing significant amounts and at risk of meeting cash needs for their retirees.

This sector is another time bomb that will go off like housing did in 2008. Hard to say when, but I think inside 5-years. The problem is that this may coincide with other economic collapses that hit is all at once, which includes government (federal and state debt crises) and stock, bond and real estate meltdowns. Scary stuff ahead for all of us.

", + "Notes": "

The broader concern is what will happen between now and 2028, as $3.2 trillion in debt across 28,000 private equity-owned companies will need refinancing when five of the largest creditors can't agree on a single loan restructuring.

US public pension average of 13%.

" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4678.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4678.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f056d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4678.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4678", + "Date": "9/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4678__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Model by BCA Research indicates equity valuations are significantly overvalued.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4679.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4679.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..adc4fb2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4679.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4679", + "Date": "9/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4679__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

US Pending home sales reached a record low. Amazing that values keep climbing with these low numbers. There is just not enough housing when aggregated nationally to meet demand. Couple that with the fact that most mortgages are locked into low rates, so people are very reluctant to give them up, which means even less stock available for sale.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4680.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4680.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d7f7894 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4680.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4680", + "Date": "9/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "Dollar General", + "File": "", + "Image": "4680__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

There's two economies in the U.S. right now: (1) low income that is struggling with inflation, does not own any assets like real estate where they were able to lock in ultra low rates from a few years ago, does not own cash to earn risk free income from money market funds, and does not own equities that are near record highs. They are hurting, which means that companies who sell to this demographic are also distressed. (2) Upper income that has income which has sorta kept up with inflation, assets like real estate locked into low rates and cash and equities. They are doing pretty well and keeping the economy afloat.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4681.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4681.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b08bb8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4681.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4681", + "Date": "9/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4681__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

U.S. real retail inventories are high, a factor of (1) companies stocking up ahead of the holidays to avoid supply chain problems (2) and to avoid tariffs that will go into effect in the near future. Will sales materialize to counteract this inventory buildup?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4682.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4682.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..35bc019 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4682.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4682", + "Date": "9/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4682__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is amazing. Households own $4.5 trillion in Checkable Deposits & Currency which is a cash reserve that more than quadrupled relative to the pre-pandemic levels: $1 trillion in 2019 to $4.5 trillion now. This amount equates to about $17k per each US citizen for more than 4x available cash today than the pre-pandemic. But this load is concentrated in upper income and wealthy, not low income. This is after the pandemic, inflation, and the market slowdown we've experienced since rates started rising up. Among upper income, there is a lot of cushion.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4689.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4689.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..16c8afa --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4689.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4689", + "Date": "9/7/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4689__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Long-term painful trend in German industrial production that will only continue. It's population is declining and is export-led in a world that is deglobalizing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4694.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4694.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56bff56 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4694.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4694", + "Date": "9/7/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4694__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Long-term chart showing U.S. office space vacancy rate. COVID taught us how to operate remotely, turning the category into a discretionary product. The office category is a harbinger for other discretionary product categories that will continue to come under increasing pressure from consumers that can no longer afford discretionary items.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4696.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4696.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f4fbfa6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4696.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4696", + "Date": "9/8/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4696__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

An epic bubble burst of China real estate stocks in one chart.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4732.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4732.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc57f6f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4732.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4732", + "Date": "9/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4732__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We're still on track for a recession.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4733.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4733.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..28eac42 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4733.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4733", + "Date": "9/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4733__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

China continues to flood the world with exports in efforts to keep its economy going, which is dependent on exports as consumer spending is low and decreasing and it is reeling from its own real estate crisis. The country has so much manufacturing export capacity that is it producing at razor thin margins, if not below costs, to maintain employment, flooding the world with cheaper products. This is why there is so much world wide activity around tariffs against China. What happens to China when tariffs get put in place en masse and countries reindustrialize? China has no other big growth engines left.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4734.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4734.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a9cbbd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4734.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4734", + "Date": "9/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4734__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI crude oil refer to the total number of long contracts held by traders, which indicate bets on oil prices. At present, sentiment is very negative on the future value of oil, which is a barometer for future economic activity.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4738.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4738.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cfebbf0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4738.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4738", + "Date": "9/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4738__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Italy industrial production...a slide that started in 2018, and other than the COVID bump, continues a downward trend. Like a lot of western Europe, Italy is in demographic decline and can't compete with many other countries that have lower cost basis.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4739.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4739.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dfc45cb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4739.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4739", + "Date": "9/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4739__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This is an interesting chart showing developed markets (like U.S., Canada, Europe) debt as a percent of GDP since 1800. Historically these debt problems gets solved through periods of elevated inflation, but lower interest rates (to keep government debt payments low), which is called financial repression. Here, savers (in the form of cash and government bonds) are the ones that bear the brunt of solving debt issues, where they are paid less on their savings than inflation. Inflation is in elevated prices for goods and services and labor, which reflects in the increase in the country's GDP. This is how debt gets inflated away, but savers bear the cost, not just in lower interest rates paid on their savings, but also because the currency devalues relative to other assets. A two-punch for savers.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4742.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4742.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2ad958e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4742.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4742", + "Date": "9/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4742__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A nice snapshot of household wealth distributed across asset classes for select countries. The concern in this picture is China, where assets are concentrated in real estate, which is going through a deep recession at present. As the world's second largest economy, what impacts China does not stay in China. The country is dependent on exports to drive its economy and does not have a robust consumer driven economy like the U.S. Layer on its troubles in real estate along with increasing tariffs across the world against Chinese imports, and the situation is concerning because the country lacks a growth engine to power it through its troubles.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4743.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4743.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..949863a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4743.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4743", + "Date": "9/21/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4743__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interesting long-term chart showing residential buyer traffic for home builder sites. It may likely stay low until we see more interest rate cuts from the Fed; why buy now when rates will be going down - better to wait.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4745.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4745.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e70903 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4745.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4745", + "Date": "9/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4745__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart shows long-term net U.S. savings, which is net of cash savings and federal debt. It does not include state or local government debt. Interesting how foreigners net savings began to show significant contributions starting int h early 1980's. The only time when net savings by U.S. was negative was during the great financial crisis, then briefly during COVID and most recently again it has solidly turned down. The recent negative U.S. savings (not including foreigners) is as a result of the sharp rise in government deficits, where private net savings has been unable to offset. If/when foreigners stop accumulating savings in the U.S., then we have to rely more on government deficits, we have lower investment capacity to fund growth and stimulate our economy, our national wealth goes down and interest rates generally have to rise to attract capital. Given our massive government debt, we will have great difficulties supporting our spending through more debt. As a result, a big reckoning is coming for our economy because of our massive debt and a stagnant economy with no big growth engine to power us through our economic imbalances (at least not yet, but one is likely coming, however maybe not in time before our financial reckoning hits).

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4746.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4746.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6dd8490 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4746.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4746", + "Date": "9/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4746__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This shows annual energy transition investment worldwide. We hit $1.8 trillion investment in 2023, but we really need $10 trillion per year, every year through 2050 to see net zero emissions. Anything less and global warming keeps going up, which means environmental catastrophes will only go up in frequency and severity, which means we will have to adapt as best as possible (possibly shifting energy transition dollars to adaptation instead) and suffer significant damages in the coming decades. The environmental disasters we've seen the last decade are nothing compared to what is ahead of us.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4747.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4747.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5777ca8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4747.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4747", + "Date": "9/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4747__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart is a great example where asset classes can go nowhere in value for decades. Platinum is at the same price it was back in 2005 and has gone almost since 2015. Buy and hold is always a failed strategy because it always depends on when you bought. If you buy any asset at its peak in a long-term secular cycle, you may wait decades and longer to realize a return

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4748.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4748.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cbe3ea7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4748.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4748", + "Date": "9/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4748__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Will we see a rotation from money market funds (cash) to investments as rates drop? Unlikely, until we see fed funds rates drop below 2%, which means we may not get much if any economic boost from rate drops for quite awhile.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4749.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4749.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..94ab3d7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4749.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4749", + "Date": "9/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4749__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Amazing chart showing the jump in computer processing power. We went 6x since 2019, which allowed us to usher in the age of AI (scratching the surface, really). But projections say we will see 10-50x from here by 2030. This will all drive AI that will bring about changes to all our lives in a compressed time frame the likes never seen before in the history of the world. A few things could knock us off this trajectory - resource constraints from deglobalization and geopolitical conflicts, and environmental disasters. I anticipate a 10-50x growth in computational power, but this increase won't be evenly distributed across the globe. While the capacity for such growth will exist, its widespread adoption will be limited. The U.S. is likely to capture the majority of this advancement, with much of the rest of the world lagging behind.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4761.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4761.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0142a7d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4761.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4761", + "Date": "9/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4761__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "This is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators divided by Lagging Indicators. We have seen 8 plunges like this since the 1960s and each one flagged a recession. New plunge in the books, so recession still on track.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4762.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4762.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9fa901a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4762.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4762", + "Date": "9/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4762__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Global recession risk as measured in global manufacturing PMI, a composite index that measures the overall health of the manufacturing sector worldwide. It's looking quite terrible for select developed countries plotted on this chart - US, Germany, Japan. Maybe also trending down for the global median.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4764.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4764.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6cc4a17 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4764.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4764", + "Date": "9/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4764__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Our wealth inequality continues to build, shutting out people from the American dream and family formation. This chart is shows that the US home price to median household income ratio is now at 7.2x, a new all-time high. This ratio is officially above the 6.8x seen during the 2008 Housing Bubble. In just 5 years, home prices have soared ~50%, materially outpacing the 17% growth in household income. This will correct at some point, as all wealth bubbles do.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4777.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4777.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f3f132f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4777.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4777", + "Date": "10/1/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

👏 So, it finally begins!


SB 707 passed in California, which mandates that producers of textiles create ways for their products to be repaired, reused and recycled. Its the first law passed in the U.S. of this type, and more states will follow in the coming years.


🚀 Where brands should start.

Brands can get ahead of this by uniquely identifying their products using an open source standard that allows for \"connected products\", which is simply taking offline, static products and pairing them with their digital counterpart that lives online. Think of a certificate of authenticity one receives when they buy an art work; but this COA can be thought of as a digital container of data and software that can do things and updates its programming in the future. This ID is permanently attached to the product and represented as a QR code that when scanned, would allow anyone to see all information about the product, including its history and provenance, its warranty information, and most importantly for SB 707, how to repair, reuse/resell and recycle the product, which will change as we get new technologies and processes around circularity. This digital COA allows brands to update this information as it changes.

🎁 Why this law and the open source product ID standard is a gift to brands.

The product ID is more than just a scan and read. Rather than think of the law as another burden, it will force brands into the future, which they will be thankful for, because they will discover a whole new universe of business models with which to enable for their business. Using this open source ID standard, the product is future-proofed to emerging technologies and business models, glimpses of which we have already seen through early efforts by leading consumer brands, which can revolutionize the consumer product industry with not just with new circularity tools, but new products, new ways to market and sell and new ways to differentiate themselves.

The open source product ID standard is published here: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/document/d/16JtMeXQcz2f8rCC6uYjLV9WqB-mM2mnmEMLYCeAZaYc/edit?usp%3Dsharing&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1727805985136418&usg=AOvVaw1TIPhKxjwY-ott6URS2IAI

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4779.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4779.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..679bb85 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4779.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4779", + "Date": "10/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4779__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Global debt is a massive problem. Consider (1) national, state and local government debt, (2) private debt held by companies and citizens, (3) unfunded liabilities like retirement, (4) and there is lots of shadow debt that we can't even track because it's in the private market.

Here's a few nice charts for China, Japan and the U.S., in terms of private credit to each nation's GDP. Japan and the U.S. are lower and more manageable, in a decent economy, which is what we have now, at least in the U.S. But in a bad economy, any debt is too much debt.

China is problematic because they are in a deep recession plus there is significant private debt. What happens in the world's second largest economy has ripple effects everywhere, including the U.S.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4782.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4782.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b7fb5ea --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4782.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4782", + "Date": "10/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4782__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Chart on restaurant performance since 2003. We've now slipped below the normal range and heading toward levels seen in prior recessions.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4783.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4783.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f1a128 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4783.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4783", + "Date": "10/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4783__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The cost declines to AI are astounding. This is from ARK Investment Management LLC. AI is declining in cost faster than any disruptive technology measured in the past. Considering Moore's Law in semiconductors, which saw costs half every 18-24 months, AI is seeing this same rate every 4 months. Another way to look at it: we are seeing performance improvement that might take 10-years happening in 2-years. Will current world-beating AI models run on smartphones in a few years?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4784.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4784.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..663a919 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4784.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4784", + "Date": "10/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

🎇 SB-707, landmark Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation for textiles in the U.S. market, has finally passed! 🎇

As a futurist for the consumer product industry, I am most interested in how legislation impacts the future and what consumer brands should be doing to position for that future. But as a brand builder and operator, rather than consider legislation as a burden and cost center, I seek to leverage legislation for growth and prosperity.

I have published a guide on EPR and SB-707, outlining what brands need to know, key deadlines for compliance and performance, expected costs, and strategies for leveraging this legislation into a profit center rather than a cost center.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RGObqfe60SbKevDeothJLmU__doQSO1VU9h3Nj38G3M/edit?usp=sharing

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4788.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4788.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d3f0e10 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4788.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4788", + "Date": "10/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I've been repeatedly asked about what are the skill sets and jobs of the future for consumer product professionals. Rather than answer that question directly, I wanted to go deeper and attempt to answer it in context of job security; another wards, what skill sets can people acquire that reduce their chances of getting disintermediated and disrupted by technology, economic conditions or secular shifts. I have come up with three constructs that I hope will shed some light: (1) own and control data, (2) get closer to the edge; (3) and, focus and dominate. I also summarize four value drivers that will define successful brands in the future, which will give people an idea of where to focus.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XKCcRXjL-1lRpgjFcvdALRM_yXzuuDOplv4l5yccpYU/edit?usp=sharing

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4796.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4796.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..879cf45 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4796.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4796", + "Date": "10/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4796__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This captures the K-shaped economy, where the top income earners and wealth owners are doing well (American Express' target market) while the middle and bottom are not doing as well (Capital One's target market)

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4798.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4798.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5d9dc8f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4798.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4798", + "Date": "10/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4798__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Stark contrasts in real GDP growth, U.S. vs Italy. Italy is way ahead of the U.S. in demographic decline and debt to GPD levels, which we can see reflected in its stagnation. When will the U.S. reach demographic and debt levels like Italy? Demographic... maybe not at all this century. The U.S. is only half as densely populated as Europe and coupled with our unique strengths, we can see a surge in family formation and immigration in the coming decades, Debt is another story, where we are not far behind and catching up rapidly. But while we will suffer the consequences of this and have to correct it, we will have the benefits of demographic growth and a new growth engine that will power GDP growth for decades thereafter.

What is very interesting in looking at this chart is the jump to the lower GDP growth curve by the U.S. from the 2008 GFC. We never recovered to the previous curve. The reason can be traced to our own structural problems associated with sovereign debt, mismanaged monetary policy and the ending of a multi-decade growth engine.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4819.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4819.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..198f06b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4819.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4819", + "Date": "10/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4819__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a tough chart to grasp for the EU. The Ukraine war and imploding demographics is taking its toll.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4820.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4820.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b85324 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4820.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4820", + "Date": "10/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "Geopolitics", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4820__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is China's population by age group. Without young people, a country lacks the tax base to support its aging population while its long-term real GDP will fall. The U.S. shouldn't run into this problem till the next century.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4822.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4822.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ab3efe0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4822.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4822", + "Date": "10/19/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4822__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This chart is extremely important and tells it all. The U.S. accounts for one-third of total global consumer consumption. That is why we have such a strong economy. The rest of the world mostly relies on exports and do not have well developed consumer economies. As deglobalization and resource constraints escalate and the U.S. reshore's its industrial base, export-driven economies will suffer (they already are). Our next growth engine in the coming decades that will continue to power our economy will be reindustrialization along with immigration/family formation, which will be unavailable to most other countries - maybe all except the U.S.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4824.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4824.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47178de --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4824.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4824", + "Date": "10/19/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4824__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Gross fixed capital formation is a component of the expenditure on gross domestic product (GDP) that indicates how much of the new value added in an economy is invested rather than consumed. Think of land improvements, plants, machinery, equipment purchases, construction of roads, railways, schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. The U.S. is tracking to pre-COVID trend, as is the UK (although at a lower level than the U.S). Everyone else is tracking lower. The U.S. is the economy where everyone needs to be.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4826.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4826.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a15ca2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4826.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4826", + "Date": "10/19/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "Geopolitics", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4826__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

On an aggregate basis, the U.S. is sticking to its pre-COIVD real retail sales trend. But we are in what is called a K-shaped economy, where the top income classes are doing well and the bottom are struggling, so this trend is being supported by those with money. It's why we are the only developed economy that is holding up well. Not so in the EU, UK and Japan.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4835.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4835.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f130580 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4835.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4835", + "Date": "10/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4835__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S. federal debt is a ticking time bomb because at some point, we cannot add more debt, and federal spending has been so out of control for so long that our economy has been structured around all this extra spend. Take that away and it will crater the U.S. economy. Few if any in the political spectrum are addressing this - in fact its the opposite, they are promoting policies that will dramatically increase the debt. The rational is that more spending will jump start the economy so that GDP will grow fast enough to overtake the debt increase and allow excess to be pay back the debt. That strategy has been employed since the 1990's and it has not worked. It has only increased the debt without a commensurate increase in GDP. Our problem is structural, where we lack a growth engine to allow the economy to grow faster. Until we get a new growth engine (one is coming in future decades), spending more won't do a thing, except increase debt. A reckoning is coming when we cannot add more debt and we hit the wall and have to cut back spending.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4837.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4837.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fce9f96 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4837.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4837", + "Date": "10/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4837__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Real retail sales (which are adjusted for inflation and the number to watch) continue to hold to pre-COVID trend, and notching some months above trend. The upper-income U.S. consumer continues to keep the economy alive.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4863.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4863.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6691829 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4863.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4863", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4863__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

The U.S. economy has everyone perplexed. On the one hand it is doing well by many measures, and on the other hand, it is in bad shape. It is a bit of both, with the upper income classes doing well and driving the economy, while lower income classes are struggling. Considering the attached, which is the U.S. Leading Economic Index, we see a record in consecutive months without any gains, which points to a poor economy.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4864.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4864.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ebf77bf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4864.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4864", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4864__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This chart shows the U.S. dependence on China for a large share of products, because China is the cheapest source for these goods. As the world deglobalizes and reshores, we have a long way to go to decouple from China to bring back manufacturing to reignite our next growth engine. As we increase domestic production, there will no doubt be significant cost increases, which means inflation will be higher, if not quite high. But AI coupled with robotics could help significantly to give us more efficient manufacturing.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/sep/how-cheap-us-imports-china


", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4865.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4865.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7ab0df1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4865.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4865", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4865__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Trend in US remote work. Fascinating to see where it was pre-COVID (below 10%) and where it has settled post-COVID (30%). A full 25% drop in the need for commercial space to house workers is a big adjustment, which is why office real estate is currently at depression levels.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4866.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4866.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..10ec4e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4866.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4866", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6402Robert_Antoshak", + "c6509CampbellMyers" + ], + "Companies": "CreateMe", + "File": "", + "Image": "4866__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

The growth in automation in Asia has outpaced all other regions by a massive scale. The upside, though, is how little automation there is in The Americas, which means the potential for growth in automation (which could include AI + robotics) is massive when considering the imperative for us to reindustrialize and reshore.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4868.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4868.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2f687bb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4868.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4868", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4868__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The lack of confidence in the supreme court (80% of voters are either somewhat to not at all confident) is not new. While it has been getting worse recently, throughout the history of the U.S., there were periods just like now. A quick search reveals similar periods associated with: (1) Dred Scott Decision (1857); Reconstruction and the Civil Rights Cases (1870s-1880s); (3) Lochner Era (1905-1937); (4) New Deal Conflicts (1930s); (5) Civil Rights Movement Backlash (1950s-1960s); (6) Roe v. Wade (1973); (7) Bush v. Gore (2000). It may not see like it, but we'll get through our current struggles as well. (and thank you to ChatGPT4o for educating me).

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4869.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4869.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97e2a00 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4869.json @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4869", + "Date": "10/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c2917EllyTruesdell", + "c3021LukeVernon", + "c3332WayneWu", + "c3393NimPatel", + "c6200Josh_Tatum", + "c6260David_Wagner", + "c6261Jesse_Marble", + "c6263Kristen_Gendron", + "c6264Nick_Thomas", + "c6319Russell_Cree", + "c6409DouglasCampbell", + "c6429Lindsey_Kilbride", + "c6430TJTaylor", + "c6495MichaelSmith", + "c6496WillDecker" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4869__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Global IPO volume this year is tracking to be lower than 2008 (GFC) and 2001 (Dotcom bust). Another sign of our global economy, constrained by limited growth engines, population implosion among many countries, resource constraints from climate change, and inflation due to resource constraints. Will this turn around in the future? For the U.S., yes, but the rest of the world, not likely.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4872.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4872.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..007cb30 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4872.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4872", + "Date": "10/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4872__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Inflation compared to the 1970's. So far it is tracking perfectly. Whether it tracks to the 1970's or not, the coming decades will have higher inflation, no doubt about it. When you consider climate change producing catastrophic events, resource constraints because of climate change and the imperative for us to reindustrialize, all of this adds costs, which creates inflation.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4873.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4873.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b399099 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4873.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4873", + "Date": "10/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4873__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Looking at inflation and post-COVID economic performance, the U.S. was in the middle of the pack for inflation, yet our economic performance has dramatically exceeded EU countries. Why is this? (1) Our government stimulus by handing out cash to companies and individuals was over-the-top, (2) we have a very vibrant consumer economy, (3) our demographics are still pretty decent, (4) we lead in technology and innovation, (5) and not having a war on our doorstep that upended our energy complex.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4874.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4874.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c72a685 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4874.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4874", + "Date": "10/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4874__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Here's the depressing fact with fighting to reduce carbon emissions. When we see that almost 1000 coal plants in Asia are either in construction, permitted, pre-permitted or announced, how can we decarbonize? Anything we do in the U.S. (or anywhere) against this onslaught won't make a difference. But imagine replacing all those coal plants with small modular reactors (SMR), a type of nuclear reactor that is smaller in size and designed to be built in modules, allowing for more flexibility, scalability, and potentially safer and more cost-effective nuclear power generation. SMRs can be loaded onto cargo planes, flown in nearby, then trucked on semis and installed in weeks, replacing a coal plant by just plugging into the existing power distribution network. We are getting close to this reality.

In 2-years this company will be able to ship 2 new reactors a week, each one powering 20K homes. Austin-based Aalo Atomics @AaloAtomics is building portable reactors small enough to fit inside a NYC apartment. Its reactors will be made of Lego-like parts—made in a factory and then easily assembled on site. Aalo’s goal: Be able to get a new reactor firing in just 60 days. It currently takes about 14 years to build and fire up an old-school reactor—talk about acceleration! Aalo is commercializing a proven design from Idaho National Laboratory, one that's already cleared regulatory hurdles.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4878.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4878.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a74a29e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4878.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4878", + "Date": "10/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4878__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Wow! Hard to believe that 2024 existing home sales will be at levels not seen since the 1980's. Considering how much more population (238 million in 1985 vs 331 million in 2020) and housing stock (~38 million homes in 1985 vs ~80 million homes in 2020) we have now versus then, that is a remarkably dramatic drop.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4879.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4879.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f99671 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4879.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4879", + "Date": "10/28/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4879__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

These maps look pretty alarming, showing government transfers as a share of personal income, which include Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, Unemployment insurance, Food assistance programs (e.g., SNAP), Housing subsidies, Disability payments, Veteran benefits. In 20 years, we went from small pockets of orange approximating 10% of the U.S., to large swaths of orange covering what approximates 50% of the U.S. Diving a bit deeper, recent data says total transfers approximate 18%, whereas in 2000, it was 12%. So it has gone up quite a bit, which tracks with demographics where we have an aging population and fewer young people paying into the system. The challenge is how does a population that gets almost 20% of personal income from a government that is massively in debt, adjust when the government at some point hits the wall and cannot go into further debt to finance its expenses. The only way to fix this is to massively ramp up family formation, immigration of young people and reindustrialization, all of which would give us a multi-decade colossal growth engine that can help us grow out of our debt.

Paulo Lacerda Sobral

Can you go deeper on reindustrialization?

Paulo Lacerda Sobral One key challenge in the U.S. is we lack a growth engine, as demographics are currently unfavorable and we are saturated in product. However, what is available to use as a new growth engine is reindustrialization, where we rebuild our industrial base. Consider that Manufacturing as share of employment declined from 30% in the 1970s to barely 8% today, so while we may not get to 30% again, we have a lot of room to get back the industrial base that we exported. But when you layer on the buildout of AI+robotics+electrification, in addition to rebuilding our industrial base to make products, all of that equates to an incredible growth engine that will require more people (immigration+family formation), which leads to better demographics and a bigger population that can spend and grow GDP. /1

Paulo Lacerda Sobral We are only half as densely populated as Europe, so have a lot of room to grow. Where long-term annual GDP growth is 3%, we might see 6-8% annual GDP growth over decades. People are starting to get this and realize we need aggressive industrial policy + innovation + more people to tap into this growth engine to power our economy out of our challenges. I talk a lot about the future and what we can expect in my futurist work published on my website. Thx for asking. 👍 /2

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4896.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4896.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1205ddf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4896.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4896", + "Date": "11/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4896__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Here is the Congressional Budget Office project growth in debt as percentage of GDP, which is the lowest we can hope for because CBO projections by law can't account for policy changes or recessions, and they assume inflation at 2.3%, which no way we can keep that low in the coming decades with resource constraints, reindustrialization and climate change. We will soon exceed the peak in WWII, but we are not in a war or in any kind of crisis. It is alarming that our debt is skyrocketing in a time of 3% GDP growth (which is quite good over the long term). This number excludes social security and Medicare trust funds that are being depleted. When they disappear in the 2030's either we add more debt to compensate, cut the federal budget or both pass new laws to lower benefits, or a combination of all three. We are way past the point where we do not avert some kind of debt crisis where we hit the wall with inability to finance more debt expansion. Best estimates are sometime at the end of this decade, but could certainly come at any time.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4897.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4897.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0c2dd4c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4897.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4897", + "Date": "11/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A concerning trend...relentless growth across many developed countries with the UK as an outlier that is skyrocketing. Why are there so many young males neither in education, work or looking for work (NEET: Not in Education, Employment, or Training)? A combination of things: manufacturing decline that tends to be male-dominated, mental health challenges, social isolation, challenges with affording education.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4898.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4898.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a95ad76 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4898.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4898", + "Date": "11/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4898__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

GDP per capita - the U.S. is remarkable, despite our challenges. We'll have rough patches in coming decades, but we will continue to grow and stand a good chance of even escalating this number. The EU mostly topped out well over a decade ago.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4899.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4899.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e7bf9f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4899.json @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4899", + "Date": "11/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6060Kristin_Hostetter", + "c6141eva_karlsson", + "c6392AnnieAgle", + "c6403BellaWebb", + "c6417AmyRauen", + "c6482Ana_Kristiansson" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4899__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "OK, so this is bad for sure, projecting that CO2 in 2030 will only be 2.6% lower than in 2019, against the need for it to be 43% lower. But projections are not anticipating innovation that is in the works and how they can go exponential when implemented to help counteract global warming. We are living not in linear times, but in exponential times, brought on by technologies that leverage network effects, manufacturing economies of scale and mass market adoption. Linear is 20-steps=you walk across a room; exponential is 20-steps=you travel 652 miles. No time to be negative or doom and gloom; we just have to continue pushing decarbonization and leveraging innovation where it can go exponential. We'll get there.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4902.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4902.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6311a4d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4902.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4902", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "Prospecting", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "c6224PeterDiamandis", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

@PeterDiamandis I have many favorite quotes, but here are three: (1) All the good stuff happens when we act even if we don’t know for sure - @SethGodinBlog (2) Don’t ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive, and go do it. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive. - Howard Thurman (3) If you’re not failing you’re not pushing your limits and if you’re not pushing your limits you’re not maximizing your potential - @RayDalio

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4903.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4903.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e1a671a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4903.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4903", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4903__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart shows the median household income, which is stagnating in a range. If you average household income, it is rising, but is heavily influenced by outliers, and outliers in this case are the increase in income from the upper end of the income range. Many Americans have an unfavorable view of the economy and show negative sentiment because their income is not rising. It is only the upper income ranges that are rising (and rising a lot). The U.S. economy since the 1970's has been slowly restructured to benefit the upper income and wealthy. When you look at averages across many metrics, our economy is doing well because it is being pulled up the select few, but when you dig deeper, there is quite a bit of pain.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4904.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4904.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2e6f786 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4904.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4904", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4904__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Snapshot for the U.S. in real consumer spending trends. Durable goods are appliances, electronics, furniture, vehicles, tools, equipment, sports equipment - anything lasting more than 3-years. Non-durable goods are good, clothing, footwear, personal care products, household supplies, gas - anything lasting less than 3-years. Non-durable and services are back to trend, while durable goods are holding above trend. This picture shows a good economy, but when you dive into the details, many segments and consumers are suffering.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4905.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4905.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8cfdd44 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4905.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4905", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4905__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Here is Mexico's birth rate, which is falling below that of the U.S. for the first time. Its youngest generation is smaller than the next generation ahead of it, which means its population pyramid will lead to issues in 25 years or so. At this point, fewer workers means tax revenues drop and an aging population increases costs, leading to big problems. The country has recently completed its switch to autocracy, with a single party controlling the government along with overwhelming support by the public. What the government does with this control that allows it to act decisively and unilaterally to solve its deep problems (wealth inequality, cartels, corruption, inefficient government), we will certainly find out in the coming years. Can it lead to more family formation or even immigration to help reverse its demographic decline? The U.S. in the future may also switch to autocracy to solve its problems, so watching how Mexico handles it will be illuminating.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4906.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4906.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8008370 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4906.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4906", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6209BillAmos", + "c6299Eoin_Comerford", + "c6480Mallory_Ottariano" + ], + "Companies": "NW Alpine,Youer", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Great summary Eoin Comerford and a maybe their strong balance sheet will save them. Columbia Sportswear Company is clearly an incumbent brand that did will in our era of globalized production to get us the cheapest products. They optimized around that, but the formula is changing quickly. Can they shift underlying fundamentals to (1) a deglobalizing world = reshoring is an imperative, (2) drastically reduce emissions, (3) become truly circular, and (4) connect more emotionally with the consumer? What they are doing is just the proverbial \"lipstick\", which every incumbent brand is doing. We get buzzwords like strategic review, pivot, brand repositioning, customer focus, SKU rationalization, new hires....but no changes in the underlying fundamentals for how brands need to operate in a new era. We're in a time of major inflection points and incumbent brands - especially big ones like Columbia - are at significant risk of disruption. Maybe they will see the light and use that balance sheet to work on the underlying fundamentals. If not, I think they are the walking dead. A shoutout to brands on the right path: Youer® NW Alpine Gear, LLC Katabatic Gear FORLOH INC. Runyon Burgeon Outdoor Wuru Wool Company American Roots

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4911.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4911.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a96abe2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4911.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4911", + "Date": "11/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "Activity Tracker", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6528Joanna_Williams", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a great piece because it shows WHAT Gen Z is buying and WHY and from WHOM. Read it first then my comment on how we leverage this to massive good.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joanna-williams-4651615a_thegreatfashionreset-activity-7259216147835686912-fnbK

44% of US Gen Zrs buy at least 1 item from SHEIN each month

Knowing your customer’s habits in your own brand ecosystem used to be key to success

understanding their preferences outside of it is the job now

Your data must intersect at content, creators, + communities

b/c Gen Z spend all their free time on entertainment platforms

And community is how it works

Understanding demand for individuals is table stakes

overlaying demand for community is crucial to thrive

Converting real time content into products has been the priority since TikTok

Shein was the only one to organize around it,

generating $30B in revenue LY

Their business model is in stark contrast w/mass fashion

who produces thousands of each design hoping to sell year-old, watered down trends

b4 the sustainability purists clutch their pearls

It's not possible to address our dire climate crisis w/old solutions

Consider this:

Temu app: 167M MAU

1st 6 month 2024 sales: est $20B

They have already beaten ANNUAL '23 sales of $15B

'24 sales forecasted to hit $54B

THEY ARE 2 YEARS OLD

Net sales at Amazon: 11% higher in Q3 vs LY

They nearly doubled capital expenditures from $12.48B to $22.62B,

“The increase bumps here are really driven by generative AI,” -CEO Andy Jassy

Keep in mind

We’ve got a data problem no one is addressing but fast fashion

Past data doesn't capture new behaviors

Social/cultural shifts create discontinuities

Consumer preferences change non-linearly

Network effects create sudden changes

Viral trends emerge from micro-interactions

The solution isn’t better prediction – it’s eliminating the need to predict all together

And just react in real time

The new market: luxury at the top, creator brands in the middle, fast fashion at the bottom

Creators no longer need brands

They will create their own economies in every vertical aided by operators w/experience across the new entertainment value chain, connected directly to

HIGH QUALITY MAKERS

If creators don’t need brands & influencer marketers don’t need brands and it’s all C2M for Amazon / TikTok Shop / Temu / Shein etc

Our world is only getting less predictable

It makes the read & react model the only method to enhance efficiency & cut waste

btw - Shein's excess-inventory rates are now single digits

compare that to the industry avg of 50% (!!!)

and you can clearly see we're trying to solve the wrong problem

and SHAMING the wrong companies

In this era trends aren't just fleeting fads; they're the primary drivers of consumer attention, engagement, & purchasing decisions

The only way to compete is creator brands

It's the only model that

Captures attention natively on entertainment platforms

Moves at the speed of culture vs seasons

Validates demand b4 production

Builds community while building products

Operates w/ zero legacy constraints

They're not invisible in the vast digital marketplace that Amazon/TikTok & Shopify/YouTube are creating....

How do we turn that WHAT and WHY to a new WHOM, which is reshored, sustainable production, democratized for the creator-to-market class to sell to this generation?

Here is how:

SHEIN disrupts Zara and H&M, and Shein gets disrupted by...AI-driven user-generated designs, sent to reshored AI and automation-drive textile production, where products have circularity and recycling built directly into them through manufacturing that can be localized, and able to handle small batch orders with short lead times, and probably single-item custom orders, with all-scope carbon output that is close to real zero.

When...I estimate in 3-years we'll be able to do this.

If Shein does not model this in the U.S., it is the walking dead, and maybe it is anyway because either we consumers are designing what we want or we buy from C2M-types who we identify with and want to support.

That is how we disrupt all prior fashion models (traditional>>>seasonal>>>fast fashion>>>ultra-fast fashion) that are wrecking our environment by turning existing demand and consumer shifts towards an even better model that is sustainable.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4919.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4919.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7c5d945 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4919.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4919", + "Date": "11/7/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "Startups", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c5765StephenRegenold", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I think this funding model could work really well, but only for brands that go hard into using new technologies and emerging business models - AI, token tech, reshored automated manufacturing, circularity built right into products, etc. We're at major inflection points and the old model of spinning up new brands using the same base products sourced abroad with minor variations to appeal to a new niche won't work. The market is just too saturated at this point with product and the U.S. economy lacks a growth engine to absorb it; not enough margin or growth potential to compensate for the risk (what Stephen Regenold alluded to), even with leverage from an incubator platform. But an incubator that highly differentiates using new tech and biz models could be really well positioned to not just steal marketshare from incumbents, but thrive through our period of transition (Fourth turning stuff).

The Indie Label Approach to Outdoor

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4923.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4923.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3bfcc21 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4923.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4923", + "Date": "11/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4923__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The tech bros could see Trumps winning because they have access to all the platforms and know who is saying what, which is why they aligned with him. Me thinks the betting markets also were getting this info, but the last minute divergence suggests to me they did not know this, otherwise there would not have been a divergence.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4924.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4924.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6f5a145 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4924.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4924", + "Date": "11/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4924__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interesting the jump happened before the GFC, cratered, then returned to the upward bounds. Sustained corporate profits for the last 15 or so years is another contributor to significant wealth inequality that we have.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4926.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4926.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ceb99c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4926.json @@ -0,0 +1,55 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4926", + "Date": "11/10/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c3058DanielleGould", + "c4965SueBrown", + "c5750StephenSullivan", + "c5762RonSchneidermann", + "c5765StephenRegenold", + "c5822DougSchnitzspahn", + "c5991DanaHowe", + "c5992GabeMaier", + "c6018Ruth_Oberrauch", + "c6060Kristin_Hostetter", + "c6092WesAllen", + "c6102Jessica_(Wahl)_Turner", + "c6107AdamCramer", + "c6117GingerNaylor", + "c6122Conor_Hall", + "c6193Yoon_Kim", + "c6224PeterDiamandis", + "c6247Paul_Jahnige", + "c6248Lexie_Gritlefeld", + "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "c6260David_Wagner", + "c6261Jesse_Marble", + "c6271Nanna_Gelebo", + "c6299Eoin_Comerford", + "c6355JulieBrown", + "c6392AnnieAgle", + "c6400KentEbersole", + "c6403BellaWebb", + "c6417AmyRauen", + "c6429Lindsey_Kilbride", + "c6461ScottHolley", + "c6476NIckSargent", + "c6480Mallory_Ottariano", + "c6482Ana_Kristiansson", + "c6492Aaron_Provine", + "c6494MichaelMatthews", + "c6509CampbellMyers", + "c6525Dan_Steinhart", + "c6526StephenMcBride" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Last week marked a leap forward toward a sustainable future, a turning point that many may not fully realize yet. Yes, I am talking about the election. Here’s why.

🏹 The Infiltrators. A major step forward for health and wellness is on the horizon, deeply connected to the health of our environment. We now have a rare opportunity to address the root causes of why the U.S. is the sickest developed nation, why we face such high healthcare costs, and how our food practices impact our planet. Credit goes to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an infiltrator who has embedded his vision for \"Make America Healthy Again\" (MAHA) into the heart of the incoming administration.

💡 The Innovators. To realize a sustainable world that decarbonizes, innovation is the only thing that will save us, which comes substantially from trailblazers, entrepreneurs, technologists and the private sector. We had a major win last week where these innovators have been finally elevated to influence major policy in the incoming administration. Thanks to Elon Musk and a wave of tech leaders, these innovators are now positioned to drive technology faster and deeper to help us solve our environmental challenges.

🏛 The Pillar. Special thanks goes to Joe Biden, whose strategic legacy through the IRA set the foundation for significant investments in clean energy, job creation, and economic resilience. These initiatives are so deeply impactful that even supporters of the incoming administration will not dismantle them.

We have an immense opportunity to champion the Infiltrators and the Innovators who fought to bring their vision towards a more sustainable future that is now in the spotlight of this new administration, where it should be. Let’s leverage this momentum to support and work with them.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4931.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4931.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..586524a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4931.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4931", + "Date": "11/11/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "c6527Joe_Van_Deman", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Your ask about polyester the fabric of the future is on point. Cotton and animal-sourced fabrics, even ones from biodynamic ag, are far from environmental/animal-friendly. The U.S. has abundant petroleum supplies and advanced processing capabilities to create synthetic products. Considering that all of this is localized, synthetic products are highly cost-effective to make and recyclable. But because they are local, they could emerge as the most sustainable material to use. If we can solve for microplastic shedding, synthetics, both new and recycled, may be the most sustainable and environmentally friendly materials in the U.S. market

referecing post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joevandeman_apparelmanufacturing-sustainability-recycling-activity-7259683148727296000-_1Pq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4938.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4938.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..99c3e58 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4938.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4938", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

🚀 Sunday Spark Incoming! 🚀\npeterdiamandis @dan_steinhart @DisruptionHedge\n

Every week, I dive deep into tracking breakthrough innovations with the power of AI, matching them against a list of keywords important to my work. Here's just a glimpse of last week's game-changers. The future isn’t just bright—it’s blazing with potential. But here’s the catch: it’s up to us to push harder, dream bigger, and innovate relentlessly. Let’s go build the future. 💡\n

    \n\t
  1. A billion-year-old geological feature in North America could produce substantial amounts of renewable, carbon-free hydrogen, potentially meeting global energy needs for centuries.
    2. \n\t
  2. A study identifies strategies to reduce 90% of plastic waste and 30% of associated emissions by 2050, highlighting the need for systemic circular solutions.
    3. \n\t
  3. Artificial Photosynthesis for Clean Energy: Hydrogels mimicking natural photosynthesis enable efficient hydrogen production, advancing renewable energy solutions.
    4. \n\t
  4. Atmospheric Water Capture Device: A high-yield system extracts water from desert air, contributing to sustainable water resource management.
    5. \n\t
  5. Circular Economy for Lithium Batteries: A citric acid-based method achieves 99% efficiency in recycling lithium-ion batteries. (Keywords: circularity, renewable, sustainability)
    6. \n\t
  6. MOF for High-Temperature CO2 Capture: New material enables efficient carbon capture at industrial temperatures, reducing energy and water use. (Keywords: carbon capture, green innovation, sustainability)
    7. \n\t
  7. Seaweed Proteins: Sea lettuce emerges as a biodegradable, renewable alternative protein source.
    8. \n\t
  8. New Photocatalyst for Emission-Free Hydrogen - A light-based hydrogen catalyst that could lead to zero-emission hydrogen production. (ScienceDaily)
    9. \n\t
  9. Single-Process PFAS Capture and Destruction - An electrochemical method for removing PFAS (\"forever chemicals\") from water, critical for addressing industrial pollution. (SciTechDaily)
    10. \n\t
  10. Recycling Microplastics with Nanotechnology: A low-cost method to remove microplastics from water aligns with circular economy principles.
    11. \n
", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4941.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4941.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f9b1d42 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4941.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4941", + "Date": "11/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

From political insiders I read from, the incoming administration is setting up an epic political war with entrenched deep state interests. The playbook is to out the corruption and entrenched interests that have rewarded industry complexes for decades, notably: (1) big food and big pharma (Kennedy and HHS and why we spend so much on healthcare but are the sickest natin of all developed countries), which may migrate to other areas tied to the environment (foods and pesticides and fluoride use in water); (2) defense where there is a revolving door between government and industry leaders shuffling between the two and rewarding incumbents; (3) media that is used to manipulate messaging: (4) and other areas in government that may or may not include the private sector, such as the clandestine community. The tools are technology, where the incoming tech complex that backed the new administration will be able to use data and AI to discover and root out the financial corruption as well as find cost savings. Because of this coming war, this is an existential threat to the incumbent interests, who will be pulling out all stops to prevent this. In war, when your existence is threatened, there are no rules and you do whatever it takes to win.

This overall is probably not a bad idea to help clean up corruption, wasteful spending, manipulation and the root causes for so much of our health and environmental problems. But it has to include Trump allies to be effective, but of course will not. Does this solve our major problems associated with lacking an economic growth engine, the need to reindustrialize, fix wealth inequality, advance electrification and environmental standards? Nope. This is a side show to the real problems, but this side show for Trump will be the main show, which means we won't get progress on solving what we really need solving, which we have known all along anyway, this just adds more confirmation. Maybe this main political show helps get us to the point where we finally resolve to solve the big problems, so I am not against it, but realize it won't get us to where we need to be. It might do a few good things, but in the end will mostly be about Trump getting revenge.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4942.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4942.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6ace948 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4942.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4942", + "Date": "11/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4942__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Artificial intelligence (AI) is essential for addressing contemporary challenges, yet its development incurs significant carbon emissions. Initially, major tech companies aimed for net-zero emissions by 2030. However, the rapid expansion of AI has delayed these targets. Notably, Meta, a prominent player in AI, maintains relatively low emissions. Unlike Amazon, which operates extensive logistics and warehouses, or Apple, which manufactures devices, Meta lacks large-scale offline operations. Additionally, it doesn't possess the vast cloud computing infrastructures of Google and Microsoft, contributing to its lower emission levels.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4943.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4943.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6007da8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4943.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4943", + "Date": "11/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4943__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart tracks the percentage of assets Americans hold in equities from 1950 to the present and indicates an all-time high. Historically, elevated equity allocations have often preceded significant market downturns, such as those in the 1970s and 2000s. This pattern suggests the potential for another substantial, prolonged drawdown. While the exact timing is uncertain, bets are it will occur later this decade, but really at any time given the current state of economic, political, geopolitical and environmental conditions.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4945.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4945.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..09a0728 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4945.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4945", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "Companies": "Jones Snowboards", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Good on Jones Snowboards for their innovation upcycling old boards. But it would be really awesome if they open sourced their recycling process and coordinated an industry-wide effort to deploy it at every manufacturer. Then, the whole industry comes out with a massive, incentivized, gamified program to collect used snowboards. Imagine if inside 5-years, the snowboard industry reduces its net carbon emissions 20%. One manufacturer is cool, but won't move the needle, but if they all cooperate, massive gains can be made. Imagine how such cooperation might then incentivize (or pressure) the ski industry to do the same. Sharing and cooperation is how we make exponential strides towards arresting carbon emissions.

Referencing post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/colin-true-b4152011_outdoorindustry-podcast-secondhand-activity-7263188688484876288-xULK

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4946.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4946.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f9f37e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4946.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4946", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "Companies": "Forloh", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The Polartec FORLOH INC. partnership is a great step and example for reshoring and reindustrializing, which we have no choice to do to support our economy, reduce carbon output and limit disruptions from resource constraints. Where it gets really awesome is through AI and automation-driven textile production, where products have circularity and recycling built directly into them through manufacturing that can be localized, and able to handle small batch orders with short lead times, and probably single-item custom orders, with all-scope carbon output that is close to real zero. Right now, something like 44% of US Gen Zrs buy at least 1 item from SHEIN each month. We can leverage that same demand and purchase cycle away from overseas production that absolutely sucks for the environment and our economy, towards onshored production using the process I describe above. I think we will see this inside 3-years; apparel brands especially have to make the shift because their competitors (like Forloh) are already here.


Referencing post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/colin-true-b4152011_i-shared-an-update-about-my-800-mile-arizona-activity-7261778860986294274-6YQX

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4948.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4948.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8cac862 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4948.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4948", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6391BucknerNesheim", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4948__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S. motorcycle sales fell dramatically during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 and never recovered. A combination of factors including demographic shifts, safety concerns, shift in mobility trends, lack of innovation and financial shifts all contributed. Will this recover in the future? It seems unlikely, at least over the next decade due to increasing economic pressures, continued safety concerns and shifting preferences away from motorcycle ownership. Manufacturers are trying to interest younger audiences through innovation and marketing, but they have not yielded results.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4949.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4949.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc01f12 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4949.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4949", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4949__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

90+ days delinquent credit card debt is now highest since the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis. Trends associated with inflation, elevated interest rates, geopolitical pressures and resource constraints point to this trend continuing higher.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4950.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4950.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ee2c2c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4950.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4950", + "Date": "11/17/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4950__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The decline in the number of publicly listed companies in the United States over the decades, as shown in the graph, can be attributed to several interrelated factors: (1) M&A consolidating companies, growth in private capital markets, regulatory costs, pressures on quarterly financial results and more options globally where to list. This trend is not expected to reverse.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4951.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4951.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e580dd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4951.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4951", + "Date": "11/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4951__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Since the 2008 GFC, a dramatic switch in central bank gold ownership. The era of deglobalization started then, where countries began to reduce their reliance on U.S. dollars as reserve assets. Globally, debt is becoming unsustainable and countries see gold as a hedge against the devaluation of currencies as a result of too much debt.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4952.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4952.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eea5e59 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4952.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4952", + "Date": "11/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4952__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This is an interesting chart showing productivity for the world, the U.S. and China since 1980. China reversed around 2015, when it largely finished its drive toward industrialization, urbanization and export-oriented manufacturing. It is also facing severe demographic headwinds and reaping the consequences of inefficient capital allocations from state-owned enterprises. The U.S. had its decline following the GFC, but that is turning around as we reindustrialize and incorporate AI, which should bring about a multi-decade productivity boom. Our demographics are decent - not ideal - but are a tailwind for us.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4953.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4953.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f84c0e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4953.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4953", + "Date": "11/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4953__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart compares the relative price performance of U.S. equities versus the rest of the world (ex-U.S.) equities over the past 75 years, showing a dramatic outperformance of U.S. stocks in recent years. The current level is at a 75-year high, well above historical norms and past bubbles like the \"Nifty Fifty\" and the \"Internet Bubble.\" Is this sustainable? Yes, probably. The U.S. is at the dawn of a multi-decade growth cycle powered by technology and reindustrialization. We also enjoy a unique mix of strengths unavailable to any other country. Major economies like China, Japan and the EU are declining, which means the U.S. is more attractive for investment. It does not mean our equity markets will not experience declines over years or even a decade, but relative to the rest of the world, U.S. equity valuation dominance will probably maintain.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4954.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4954.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a7eefc0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4954.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4954", + "Date": "11/18/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4954__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The EU suffers from demographic decline, over-reliance on exports, a war, an unproductive industrial base and regulatory burdens that choke growth. Against this backdrop, it has massive unfunded entitlement obligations, which seems improbable that it can meet, which means retirees will get less than promised. This is a slow-motion disaster playing out before us. The U.S. also has unfunded entitlement obligations, but at present are at 200% of GDP and we have the advantage of sitting at the dawn of a multi-decade growth cycle that will give us resources to fix these issues. We will still face serious recessions and financial challenges, but we have a way to work through it all. The EU does not.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4971.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4971.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8266a52 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4971.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4971", + "Date": "11/21/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Its general knowledge that consumers like the idea of being sustainable, but in practice not so much. People are really motivated by saving money rather than being sustainable, and saving money (like buying used products) can help with sustainability. This study confirmed that about 70% of people in U.K. and China take part in consumption associated with buying used items and sharing goods and services, but only 27% and 11 percent, respectively, ranked sustainability as their top choice for these types of consumption. We will see much more interest in sustainability in the future because as the costs associated with climate change and environmental disasters increase dramatically, then that will impact people economically, so they will then turn to becoming more sustainable because it will be more economical.

https://phys.org/news/2024-11-shoppers-sustainability.html

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4974.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4974.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..77d1ea3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4974.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4974", + "Date": "11/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4974__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S. fracking activity has been slowing and way off the highs of 2018. This is a metric that tracks the number of active hydraulic fracturing crews, or \"frac spreads,\" operating in the United States. Each frac spread consists of the equipment and personnel necessary to perform hydraulic fracturing on oil and gas wells, a crucial step in the completion process that enhances well productivity.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4975.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4975.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bb2dd92 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4975.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4975", + "Date": "11/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4975__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Here's China's exports to the US/EU and rest of world. Although a lot of rest of world thus far has been to avoid tariffs, so imports eventually make it to the U.S. via intermediary countries. This chart is interesting and shows explosive growth from early 2000's through around 2015 (blimp for the GFC), then growth moderates significantly, then is amplified for a short time during COVID. China is no longer the grow powerhouse and is in a late, mature phase of growth that is much more subdued. There may not be any more growth engines left for it to tap and it has huge manufacturing overcapacity.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4981.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4981.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b9b9d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4981.json @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4981", + "Date": "11/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "artificial intelligence", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c4965SueBrown", + "c5822DougSchnitzspahn", + "c6060Kristin_Hostetter", + "c6141eva_karlsson", + "c6144Kassondra_Cloos", + "c6224PeterDiamandis", + "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "c6355JulieBrown", + "c6392AnnieAgle", + "c6400KentEbersole", + "c6403BellaWebb", + "c6448MegCarney", + "c6461ScottHolley", + "c6476NIckSargent", + "c6477JeffMoag", + "c6482Ana_Kristiansson", + "c6504Kaydi_Pyette", + "c6509CampbellMyers", + "c6525Dan_Steinhart", + "c6526StephenMcBride", + "c6535MoeHachem" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Here’s some Monday motivation for anyone remotely involved in product R&D and sustainable materials:

🌟 Imagine an explosion of new lab-created materials for durable goods and bio-grown ingredients for consumables and body care. Thanks to tools like Google GNoME and Meta OMat24 (both open-source), powered by vast datasets and AI, hundreds of thousands of synthetic materials and ingredients have already moved to experimental synthesis. Thousands could be ready for use in real-world products.

🔬 Democratizing R&D. Picture an all-in-one lab box for material discovery, accessible to companies of any size. Alan Aspuru-Guzik's Matter Lab is leading the way with a modular system that combines advanced software, synthesis, and testing robots. Enter a material description, and the system instantly simulates and tests molecules. This puts the power of cutting-edge material science into anyone's hands.

🌍 A template for transforming industries. Companies like Halcyon are taking AI-powered innovation even further. They’re building platforms to harness vast seas of data, helping energy transition practitioners accelerate the move toward decarbonization. Could their platform could be a blueprint that can transform industries far beyond energy?

🤖 Leveraging AI for Breakthroughs: I’ve started tracking thousands of innovations weekly—an overwhelming task without AI. By pairing AI with my process, I am surfacing breakthroughs that matter most for my work.

We’re entering an age where material science, R&D, and product development are becoming accessible to everyone—regardless of company size or expertise. This shift democratizes innovation and levels the playing field.

Here's more:

NVIDIA's ALCHEMI platform integrates AI with high-performance computing to expedite materials discovery. It offers tools for generating synthetic datasets to train AI models and introduces accelerated materials discovery modules, such as machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), to enhance the efficiency of materials research.

AlphaMat: Developed as a material informatics hub, AlphaMat connects data, features, models, and applications. It is designed to handle datasets of varying scales and can design structural and component descriptors effective for various AI models. AlphaMat has been instrumental in discovering thousands of new materials across photonics, batteries, catalysts, and capacitors.

NOMAD AI Toolkit: The Novel-Materials-Discovery (NOMAD) Artificial-Intelligence Toolkit is a web-based infrastructure for interactive AI-based analysis of materials science data. It operates on FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data stored in the NOMAD Archive, facilitating data mining, machine learning, and other AI techniques to analyze materials data.

Microsoft Azure Quantum Elements: Microsoft's Azure Quantum Elements platform combines AI with traditional high-performance computing and quantum tools for materials science, chemistry, and pharmaceutical research. It utilizes physics-based AI models and advanced algorithms to process complex research data, aiming to accelerate the discovery of new materials.

IBM's Materials Discovery: IBM Research is leveraging AI, robotics, hybrid cloud, and quantum computing to accelerate the discovery of new materials. Their goal is to unlock new properties and materials to address global challenges in a significantly reduced timeframe.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4987.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4987.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..efa7209 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4987.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4987", + "Date": "11/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4987__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Can a single chart point to the solution to so many of our national challenges? Yup, read on.

We need more housing to make it feasible for people to start families, which is essential for increasing our population.

A growing population expands our consumer base, drives economic growth, and boosts GDP—key steps toward addressing our significant financial challenges.

Additionally, a larger workforce helps control labor costs by reducing pressure on employers.

Affordable housing creates stability for families, encourages higher birth rates, and supports a sustainable economy.

Right now, our birth rate is around 1.6 children per woman—well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain our population.

The bottom line: more homes mean a stronger economy and help provide a path to demographic sustainability.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4988.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4988.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..95dd4af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4988.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4988", + "Date": "11/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4988__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The shortage of homes makes it difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market, delaying family formation and hindering population growth—both essential drivers of economic expansion.

This troubling trend must be reversed if we are to address our financial challenges and unlock a new era of prosperity. The potential for growth and success is within our reach, but it hinges on solving a few key issues, such as the housing availability crisis.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4989.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4989.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..75ede8d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4989.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4989", + "Date": "11/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4989__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is surprising. The decline in dry powder within the private equity sector in 2024, marking the first significant decrease since 2000, can be attributed to several interconnected factors based on the information available up to November 2024:

Increased Investment Activity: Despite a cautious market, there's been an uptick in investment activity. This increase might be driven by a combination of factors, including the need to deploy capital before it loses value due to inflation or to take advantage of what some investors perceive as undervalued assets in a high-interest-rate environment. The anticipation of potential rate cuts could also spur deal-making, as investors might be looking to lock in investments before interest rates potentially rise again.

Liquidity Needs and Exit Strategies: The private equity industry has faced challenges in exiting investments profitably due to subdued IPO markets and a less robust M&A environment. This situation has led to a focus on liquidity events, like continuation funds or secondary sales, which could reduce the amount of dry powder as funds are either reinvested or returned to investors.

Fundraising Challenges: The environment for raising new funds has become more challenging. Investors, particularly limited partners (LPs), are more cautious due to lower returns from previous investments, the need for capital returns, and a general reassessment of risk in light of economic conditions. This caution has resulted in fewer funds being raised, which naturally caps the amount of new dry powder.

Economic Conditions and Interest Rates: High interest rates have made debt more expensive, affecting the cash flows of portfolio companies and making new investments less attractive due to higher costs of capital. However, an expectation of rate cuts could be prompting a rush to invest, reducing dry powder as firms seek to capitalize on potentially cheaper financing in the future.

Market Sentiment and Strategy Shifts: There's a noticeable shift in strategy where funds are not just holding onto cash but are actively seeking to deploy it, possibly due to fears of missing out on opportunities if the market turns or due to internal pressures to show activity and returns. This shift reflects a broader sentiment that holding too much cash might not be as beneficial in an environment where inflation could erode its value.

Technological and Market Shifts: The evolving tech landscape, particularly around AI and software, might be influencing investment strategies. The perception that certain technological moats are diminishing could lead to a rush to invest in new opportunities or restructure existing investments, thereby reducing dry powder.

The combination of these factors suggests that while the private equity industry has historically accumulated dry powder as a strategy for opportunistic investment, the unique economic conditions of 2024, including interest rate fluctuations, market recovery expectations, and shifts in technology, have prompted a more aggressive deployment of capital. This deployment, coupled with challenges in fundraising and exiting investments, has led to the observed decline in dry powder.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4990.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4990.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..715391c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4990.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4990", + "Date": "11/25/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4990__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The United States has incredible potential for growth, but several challenges could threaten its trajectory—one of the most critical being resource constraints.

For decades, U.S. electricity demand grew by less than 1% annually. However, utilities and grid operators have recently doubled their growth forecasts to about 1.5% per year over the next five years—the highest rate since the 1990s, before energy efficiency efforts began to curb demand.

The reality is that we need to double our electricity production within the next decade, yet we’re 85% short of that target with current forecasts!

Achieving this requires a massive expansion of energy infrastructure, but resource availability is becoming increasingly strained due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

Without securing the critical materials and resources necessary for this expansion, we risk falling short of the energy generation needed to power the large-scale reindustrialization essential for our nation’s economic and industrial future.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4996.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4996.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..20313a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4996.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4996", + "Date": "11/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4996__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This is a fascinating multi-decade view from the well-known University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, going back to 1952. It is a widely followed economic indicator that measures consumer confidence in the United States. It provides insights into how consumers feel about the current and future state of the economy, which can influence their spending and saving behaviors.

Sentiment tends to follow long, cyclical trends of ups and downs, and right now, we're sitting at the lower end of the gauge. How much longer will we stay here? If we draw on long-term cycle theories from Howe, Dalio, Friedman, and Turchin, it's likely to persist through this decade or so.

Moreover, we should expect survey results to hit new lows as the decade unfolds. Why? Historically, the end of cycles is marked by significant stress, chaos, and transformative change—dynamics that are bound to be reflected in the survey results in the years ahead.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4997.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4997.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ffe6d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4997.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4997", + "Date": "11/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4997__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Here's the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S., which has been negative for some time now. Yet, the economy is doing reasonably well. Diving deeper, certain segments of the economy are doing well. This index has a strong focus on manufacturing and building, all of which is down. But other segments such as services, spending by upper income and stock prices are doing well.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4998.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4998.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3531b0d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4998.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4998", + "Date": "11/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "4998__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

U.S. share of G7 GDP. It will only increase as the developed world implodes due to demographics, but the U.S. is the exception and will not experience this.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4999.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4999.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bf08252 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/4999.json @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +{ + "HubID": "4999", + "Date": "11/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c3263JeffSteinberg", + "c3748JeffBrown", + "c5822DougSchnitzspahn", + "c5958CassieAbel", + "c6078Jenna_Celmer", + "c6122Conor_Hall", + "c6193Yoon_Kim", + "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "c6274Cassondra_Spring", + "c6299Eoin_Comerford", + "c6319Russell_Cree", + "c6400KentEbersole", + "c6405JeffTurner", + "c6429Lindsey_Kilbride", + "c6461ScottHolley", + "c6476NIckSargent", + "c6495MichaelSmith", + "c6496WillDecker" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

No one truly knows how the current tariff crisis will unfold—there are too many interwoven factors in play. But let me be clear: this is not just another speed bump to manage, nor is it something we’ll simply swing back from in four years with another election and return to \"normal.\" Far from it.

The bigger, more alarming issue is the desperate global scramble for income and growth. Across the board, growth has peaked, and now every country—including the U.S.—is in a high-stakes battle for survival. We're in a global pressure cooker, fighting for shrinking market share in a world constrained by resources and burdened by the escalating costs of climate change.

Where is this headed? IF YOU WANT TO SELL IN THE U.S., YOU’LL NEED TO PRODUCE IN THE U.S. Extreme tariffs are just the opening salvo. What comes next will be unprecedented: massive, aggressive industrial and financial policies from federal, state, and local governments designed to drive job creation and economic growth at any cost.

I estimate companies have less than five years to reshore—or face devastating consequences. Government policies and consumer sentiment are aligning rapidly, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind, or worse, forced out of business.

But we are at a tipping point where technology is ushering in game-changing tools —AI, robotics, advanced materials, and circular design principles—that make reshoring not only possible but profitable and sustainable. Your competitors are already doing this, building the future into their products. If you're still sourcing or producing abroad, you're already behind.

My plea to brands...don’t dismiss this as a temporary hurdle. Start the hard conversations today, develop strategic plans, and commit to reshoring. The clock is ticking, and the cost of inaction is extinction.

referencing post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cassie-abel-5853787_editing-as-i-learn-trump-tariffs-im-trying-activity-7266997174121488384-XDlg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5009.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5009.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b98bae9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5009.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5009", + "Date": "12/1/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5009__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

More sign of irrational bullishness? They are investor funds flowing into ETF's that use leverage to spike gains.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5010.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5010.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..93543b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5010.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5010", + "Date": "12/1/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5010__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

1975 saw a clear hockey stick shift up in the time for military fixed-wind aircraft to come to market.

Why?

A shift to high-tech weapons, increasing technological complexity, shift in more thorough testing and phased development to mitigate risks, and rising bureaucracy and regulator requirements. I bet all categories of military spending mirror this curve.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5011.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5011.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2b999ab --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5011.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5011", + "Date": "12/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The incoming administration has conflicts of interest at levels never before seen. On the one hand, the admin is talking about draining the swamp, removing conflicts of interest and corruption. But on the other hands, I don't see how that is possible considering the massive competing interests with incoming people. The people coming dominate in private sector and wealth - do they have the expertise to manage in a government setting? Will they be able to balance pressures from the wealth classes against the non-wealth classes? It may work out well and we could all be surprised or will become the biggest boondoggle. I lean heavily towards the latter because history proves it. People are not able to separate competing interests. Our massive imbalances with sovereign finances, wealth inequality and climate change will worsen dramatically. Expect really bad shit as the end of the decade approaches.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5012.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5012.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7314bc2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5012.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5012", + "Date": "12/2/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I keep reading from political insiders of the impending internal war coming on January 20th between the incoming administration and the deep state that does what it wants to do regardless of who is in control. Will some of this help root out inefficiencies and waste? Maybe. Maybe this war needs to happen to truly address our larger issues. Either way, it will be something to watch, and scary, because in war, there are no rules, you do what you need to do to win. This war appears to be setting up as existential threat to entrenched interests in our government, so they will do whatever they need to survive and win. If this war consumes internal attention, what does that mean for our external threats - Russia, China, Iran and N. Korea? How will they react to take advantage? There is so much targeted, small scale, kinetic, proxy-driven conflict happening geopolitically, and it is escalating. No doubt they will try to take advantage. We are in precarious times, both domestically and internationally, which is not reflected on the surface of everyday life where the U.S. financial markets are healthy, GDP is average, the wealthy continue to spend to keep the economy afloat, and entertainment abounds. But the larger question is...will this impending internal war fix our larger problems, which boil down to (1) a lack of a growth engine for this country to help us grow our revenue to fix our problems, (2) wealth inequality that is causing all our societal and political conflicts and destroying the middle and lower classes, (3) our mounting sovereign debt and overspending, which at this point is an existential threat to the safe functioning of this country. (4) carbonization that is escalating natural disasters and impeding our ability to prosper and even live? Nope. Not one bit. This internal war may become the main show, rather than a side-show, which probably should not be happening at all considering our four main challenges and the state of geopolitics. The incoming administration needs to focus on fixing the 4 primary problems. Does this side-show need to happen? Sure, maybe at some point. And maybe this side-show will help us address the our 4 challenges at some levels. I think this side-show that may become the main-show is really about revenge and destroying political enemies. Thus, our 4 main problems will continue to spiral out of control, leading to a breaking-point. My predictions still stand. Buckle up.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5013.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5013.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9563459 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5013.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5013", + "Date": "12/3/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Even the most capable incoming administration will face limits in addressing every core problem. They only have four years to enact meaningful changes and must create momentum that continues even if they lose re-election. The focus should be on a few transformative initiatives with long-term, compounding effects. Here's what I would prioritize:

Increasing Revenue or GDP

  1. Stimulate Massive Reindustrialization
    Impose steep, unprecedented tariffs to make reshoring more cost-effective for companies. Leverage AI to monitor costs and prevent businesses from passing these costs to consumers, using presidential trade tools to penalize violators. The financial burden should fall on foreign entities, importers, and domestic shareholders—typically the wealthy—acting as an indirect wealth tax without impacting the middle and lower classes.
    • Presidential Power: High. The President can impose tariffs under the Trade Expansion Act (Section 232) and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, AI-driven cost monitoring would require Congressional approval due to privacy and legislative concerns.
    • Challenges: Resistance from businesses, legal challenges, and pushback from international trade partners under WTO rules.
    Action Plan:
    Promote reshoring through media campaigns and public transparency, while shaming companies that refuse to reshore or attempt cost-passing.


\n
  1. Reduce Regulatory Barriers to Reindustrialization
    Roll back regulations, particularly in sectors critical to growth:
    • Nuclear Energy: Essential for powering industrial expansion and AI-driven automation.
    • Housing: Increase affordable housing to support family formation and stimulate material demand.
    • Mining: Ensure access to critical materials domestically to reduce geopolitical dependency.
    • Presidential Power: Moderate. The President can influence regulatory agencies (e.g., EPA, DOE, NRC) through executive orders and appointments, but sweeping deregulation often requires Congressional or lengthy administrative processes.
    • Challenges: Pushback from environmental, housing, and public health advocates.
  2. Address Wealth Inequality
    Implement measures to cool class tensions:
    • Raise taxes on the wealthy.
    • Expand IRS enforcement to ensure all income levels, including low-income earners, contribute taxes—even small amounts.
    • Use indirect taxation, such as tariffs and reshoring policies, to shift wealth toward broader economic investments.
    • Presidential Power: Low. Tax reforms require Congressional approval.
    • Challenges: Political gridlock and opposition from wealthy stakeholders.
  3. Boost Skilled Immigration
    • Provide green cards to international students graduating from U.S. institutions and H-1B visa holders after one year of work.
    • Massively expand the H-1B visa program.
    • Allow H-1B holders to start businesses in the U.S.
    • Create an AI-driven global education initiative for underprivileged populations, offering citizenship pathways for participants who acquire skills critical to U.S. needs.
    • Presidential Power: Moderate. Adjusting visa caps and green card policies can be done through executive orders, but large-scale programs require Congressional support.
    • Challenges: Resistance from anti-immigration groups and logistical implementation hurdles.
  4. Extend Reshoring Initiatives to Neighboring Countries
    Apply reshoring incentives to Mexico, Canada, Haiti, and Cuba to boost regional prosperity and stabilize geopolitical issues like migration. This creates new labor sources while addressing growing humanitarian crises.
    • Presidential Power: Moderate. Trade agreements require Senate ratification.
    • Challenges: Domestic resistance to outsourcing perceptions and geopolitical complexities.

Controlling Costs

  1. Leverage AI for Government Efficiency
    Use AI to eliminate waste and detect fraud, particularly in healthcare entitlements, where inefficiencies and legal fraud from the healthcare industry inflate costs.
    • Presidential Power: Moderate. Federal agencies can adopt AI via executive orders, but broader reforms require Congressional approval.
    • Challenges: Privacy concerns and resistance from entrenched industries.
    Action Plan:
    Expose fraud and abuse publicly through media campaigns to drive accountability.
  2. Incentivize Civic Engagement
    Encourage volunteerism to offset budget cuts, such as maintaining public lands and infrastructure. Create programs and incentives to inspire widespread participation.
    • Presidential Power: Low. Public campaigns can promote civic involvement, but mandates require legislative action.
    • Challenges: Cultural resistance and logistical challenges.

Security

  1. Address Border Security as a National Emergency
    Use tariffs to pressure Mexico into greater cooperation and enforce stricter control over border flows.
    • Presidential Power: High. National emergencies grant significant authority over resource allocation and security measures.
    • Challenges: Legal challenges and public backlash against perceived overreach.
  2. Strategic Containment of Adversaries
    Focus on containing China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as their internal challenges—such as demographic decline—lead to long-term weakening. Use sanctions, alliances, and military strategies to maintain pressure.
    • Presidential Power: High. The President wields substantial control over foreign policy and defense strategies.
    • Challenges: Sustaining domestic and allied support for long-term containment policies.

This plan emphasizes bold, strategic initiatives with a high impact on economic growth, cost control, and security while addressing underlying systemic challenges.


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5014.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5014.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e997a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5014.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5014", + "Date": "12/4/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The potential for a high-impact systemic event affecting the global financial services industry in 2025 is considered high or very high by 55% of respondents

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/featured_articles/...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5023.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5023.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c514a74 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5023.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5023", + "Date": "12/6/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Recent tech developments:

Consider this data from 2024 BFCM:

Pre-holiday spending vs LY saw TikTok Shop with a 213% increase & the next closest was Temu at 18%, SHEIN at 16%. Upshot: there is growth, it's just on social/entertainment and ecommerce.

Walmart completes Vizio purchase. This may be a brilliant stealth move by WM. Gets WM into the home, collecting data, creating consumer profiles, through device that is both audio and visual enabled. And it is easy to put audio and video capture in it ala Alexa device to make it 2-way enabled. Now WM can integrate a gen AI model to the TV to enable consumers to manage and create entertainment and manage communications and manage any agentic AI interactions (agentic AI are AI apps that do tasks). Entertainment is driving commerce (see above); this puts WM right center of it. With their size, they can sell these things as loss leaders to achieve reach, letting consumers put them in every room.

Amazon Nova launches a suite of AI models. User-generated content, especially for creating the entertainment they want, will dominate. THink Hollywood democratized, where each one of us can create the entertainment we want, and share with our friends, or sell. Again, entertainment is driving commerce, so everyone wants to get in on this.

Tik Tok - appeals court upholds law requiring sale or ban in U.S. Expect growth to push to IS, Reels, Shorts and Maybe Triller. This is a good thing, as TT poses a dual threat: as a national security risk due to its algorithmic power to influence consumers under the control of a foreign adversary, and as an economic threat by driving consumer spending toward foreign-owned marketplaces and foreign-shored production. This undermines domestic manufacturing, jobs, and GDP, further escalating its impact on national security.

Zuckerberg/Trump bro dinner: I am willing to bet what was discussed was about the future of consumer spend, which will be about consumer-creator-driven, AI-assisted entertainment content on social platforms (see above), which means its a national economic priority to make sure that spend is driven off of U.S. owned and controlled platforms. Zuck probably making sure Trump knows this to make sure TT gets banned, because Meta will benefit enormously BTW, their gen AI model LLaMA is also vying to be the consumer's choice for creating entertainment. Zuck wants to unleash these tools on the Meta universe (4 billion users) and capture ecommerce along with it.

Nike RTFKT dies. The Web3/NTF foray by Nike has died. A (still) brilliant move by Nike, but just the wrong choice of tech (crypto and blockchain, which absolutely suck for consumer product applications). Too bad they do not see. WIsh they could pivot RTFKT to decouple away from crypto/blockchain, as the future could be significant using this tech. But for Nike, no longer as they are fully retrenching back into the old era of apparel, which I think is dieing and facing a bomb cyclone (topic for the future). Their re-embrace of retail may not be a good move in a few years.

Why above important: Entertainment is increasingly driving commerce and what consumers are gravitating towards. Entertainment platforms (TT, IS, Reels, Shorts...ROblox maybe but growth has recently plateaued and they are having trouble making money with their model) are the channels where ecommerce is growing. Triller might be a new platform to watch. The race is on to hook up AI to let consumers/creators create what they want. Wonder who in the outdoor industry really gets this and to what extent are brands in the industry trying to migrate to blending entertainment with ecommerce.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5024.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5024.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..65b9eae --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5024.json @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5024", + "Date": "12/9/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c5958CassieAbel", + "c5998AmyAllison", + "c6019MarcoBusa", + "c6078Jenna_Celmer", + "c6157IanArmstrong", + "c6234KiranCarpenter", + "c6265Sean_Cady", + "c6281SamCook", + "c6299Eoin_Comerford", + "c6300Matt_Barnes", + "c6322Matt_Bergerson", + "c6355JulieBrown", + "c6392AnnieAgle", + "c6400KentEbersole", + "c6402Robert_Antoshak", + "c6416ShaneDowney", + "c6425AndrewConley", + "c6433AliciaChin", + "c6436MatthewEtzler", + "c6448MegCarney", + "c6517Deanne_Buck", + "c6527Joe_Van_Deman", + "c6540David_Billstrom", + "c6542Adam_Baruchowitz" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel - Part 1 of 5

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel and footwear. I am summarizing the tool into a series of posts. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is at the end of this post. This post covers consumer shifts and emerging business models: consumer-creators, generational shift, user-generated content & apparel.

SHIFT FROM BRAND TO CONSUMER-CREATOR

The old era of apparel was brand-centric: mass production, global distribution, and marketing to drive demand. Affiliates and influencers were bolted onto this structure.

Now, we’re shifting to consumer-creators—individuals leveraging AI and tech to design, produce and market for themselves or their communities, keeping a much greater share of the profits.

This consumer-creator (also called creator-to-market, or C2M) model is eroding traditional brand dominance.

Its enabler is AI, which strips away complexity, making creation seamless and real-time that is empowering consumer-creators.

A GENERATIONAL SHIFT IN CONTROL OF COMMERCE

Millennials and Gen Z, the consumer-creator class, are driving this revolution.

With baby boomers aging out and wealth rapidly transferring to younger generations, these groups are shaping culture and commerce.

They are also entrepreneurs, with 48 percent of Gen Zers and 44 percent of Millennials having a side hustle.

These generations are applying AI technologies and their entrepreneurship to transform how apparel is designed, produced and marketed, employing a massive level of creative destruction on the old era of apparel.

USER-GENERATED CONTENT AND USER-GENERATED APPAREL

Ecommerce growth now lies at the intersection of entertainment, social and user-generated content, predominantly online.

AI is empowering consumer-creators to design everything—from music and video to personalized apparel that is localized, automated, 3D-enabled, on-demand-driven, with circularity-activated production.

They are building communities on modern-day entertainment and social platforms and selling products they create using AI-driven technologies.

The era of mass-market generic products is fading. AI enables faster, cheaper, and frictionless creation, cutting out traditional brands and retailers as the \"middle.\"

The Internet was a distribution revolution, introducing online marketplaces and DTC. But AI is a production revolution, democratizing tools so that anyone can create and consume what they want.

My Future of Apparel tool, along with action plans to navigate, is in this Google Doc: https://lnkd.in/gP7SryyK

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Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel - - Part 2 of 5

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel and footwear. I am summarizing the tool into a series of posts. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is at the end of this post. This post covers consumer shifts and emerging business models: (1) redirecting hyper-consumption toward sustainable solutions, (2) women-led brands driving explosive growth

GETTING CONSUMERS TO BUY LESS IS NOT WORKING. HERE’S WHAT WILL.

Approximately 36% of Gen Z purchase new fast-fashion clothing at least once a month. Additionally, a study found that 62% of Gen Z shop at fast fashion retailers monthly.

This won’t slow down and trying to get consumers to buy less is not working.

Our culture has been trained on habits of hyper-consumption, which fuels a compulsive, dopamine-chasing addiction to buy more, creating a cycle of instant gratification that leads to disposability and environmental concerns.

You don’t change habits, especially those reinforced by dopamine. You either refocus existing consumer habits or piggyback off of them to introduce new habits.

This seemingly unstoppable hyper-consumption will be redirected to localized, automated, 3D-enabled, on-demand-driven, circularity-activated production, achieving close to real zero, letting consumers buy all they want.

They get to keep spending, driving the U.S. economy, and it's all sustainable. AI will likely reduce friction to more consumption, but as it is localized with circularity built in, it becomes sustainable with a limited carbon footprint

EXPLOSIVE GROWTH COMING IN OWNED BY WOMEN, FOR WOMEN

The future of apparel is for creator women who sell to women. This is a huge underserved segment.

When you consider women control 90% of all purchases and Gen Z women are the most “online” cohort, whoever can hold women's attention - especially Gen Z - controls the future of commerce itself.

Even as (or if) brands and creators adapt to this new era, the female spend will shift—no, surge—towards brands owned by women, for women.

The Future of Apparel tool, along with action plans to navigate, is in this Google Doc: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

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We are on the brink of an apparel revolution powered by exponential innovation. Here’s how:

1. Consumer-Creators: A rising entrepreneurial class, armed with AI, is designing and selling the products they want directly to their communities on social commerce platforms.

2. Robotics and Reshoring: On-demand, automated production will reshore the industry, embedding sustainability and circularity into every product.

Why this matters:

1. It democratizes profits, empowering a new wave of entrepreneurs.

2. It redirects hyper-consumption toward sustainable, reshored production.

3. It fuels reindustrialization, driving jobs, GDP growth, and strengthening national security.

AI is creating an entirely new tech stack for apparel, making billion-dollar companies with just three people—or even one, as Sam Altman predicts—a reality.

I’ve built a tool using my futurist framework to map out predictions, action plans, and the tech stack for this new era of apparel. It is in Google doc format here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5028.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5028.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aea0566 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5028.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5028", + "Date": "12/11/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5028__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The power of social commerce is overtaking old era ecommerce and retail.

With TT being banned in the U.S., this is enormous opportunity for U.S. social commerce platforms: Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, Reels, Shorts, Snapchat, Triller, Twitch, WhatsApp, X, Youtube

I make predictions about the future of apparel and the technology stack that will drive this in this Google doc: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

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US household allocation to stocks as a percentage of financial assets is at an all-time high. Is there over-confidence building in the stock markets?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5033.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5033.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fbddd77 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5033.json @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5033", + "Date": "12/13/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6102Jessica_(Wahl)_Turner", + "c6107AdamCramer", + "c6111ChrisPerkins", + "c6117GingerNaylor", + "c6122Conor_Hall", + "c6216Mick_Daniel", + "c6247Paul_Jahnige", + "c6248Lexie_Gritlefeld", + "c6395Kristen_Garcia", + "c6452JoeCraig", + "c6494MichaelMatthews", + "c6536KathleenBaker" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5033__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is US federal spending, showing entitlement that continues upward and discretionary is getting crowded out.

Discretionary spending includes things like the USDA, FDA, NASA, education, transportation and public lands. On a prioritized basis, where do you think public lands falls on this list?

At the bottom, for sure.

When we hit the wall with our debt and over-spending, federal funding for public lands may be decimated.

There are many solutions in place and more emerging that mobilize citizens to help.

I cover one here that incorporates emerging technologies and business models.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/tokentech/use-case-boost-conservation-stewardship-and-funding-for-public-lands/

We'll need to mobile every resource we have to step in.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5035.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5035.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b9f18f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5035.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5035", + "Date": "12/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5035__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

A few interesting charts on national productivity. The U.S. continues above trend, while the rest of the G7 economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK) are underperforming dramatically. Elevated productivity levels are associated with increased economic growth, higher wages, and enhanced living standards. Our productivity may actually increase in the coming years and decades because we are aggressively enabling the development and adoption of technology and have decent (not great) demographics. Despite our challenges, they are rather tame compared to what the other G7 countries face, which shows up in their productivity and is not expected to get any better in the coming years or decades.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5038.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5038.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..71d27e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5038.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5038", + "Date": "12/14/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5038__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Yup. That.

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Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel and footwear. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel Here's an excerpt covering business cycles, along with politics and geopolitics, regulations and resource constraints.

NATIONAL SECURITY MEETS COMMERCE

Consumer spending drives 70% of the U.S. economy. 30% of global aggregate consumer spending is in the U.S. alone (China and Germany at 11% and 4% respectively, and falling).

Driving consumer spending toward foreign-owned marketplaces and foreign-shored production undermines domestic manufacturing, jobs, and GDP, further escalating its impact on national security.

The U.S. electorate will increasingly prioritize economic activity on domestic-owned marketplaces and domestic production as essential for both economic stability and national security.

Brands must reshore or risk becoming irrelevant in the eyes of public sentiment and political forces (regardless of who is in office).

REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS

Legislation is forthcoming around textile recycling, which holds producers accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, from design through to disposal.

But technologies are advancing to where we are already seeing localized, automated, 3D-enabled, on-demand-driven, circularity-activated production, which gets us close to real zero and makes consumption sustainable.

RECESSIONS AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS

Future recessions will slow the emerging consumer-creator class using AI-drive technologies, but much less so than the traditional old era of brand-centric apparel. In fact, future recessions will encourage the shift to the new era of apparel because it costs much less to operate.

Resource constraints are bigger threats. The new era of apparel is dependent upon AI, technology and electrification, which requires resources to build out, which are becoming harder to source due to geopolitics.

It’s not that we can’t eventually reshore or friendshore the sourcing of the raw materials needed for this revolution, it just takes time, thus the timing for this revolution may take longer than anticipated.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5040.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5040.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..28e992d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5040.json @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5040", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c5822DougSchnitzspahn", + "c5992GabeMaier", + "c6096BrianBlock", + "c6254Colin_TRUE", + "c6297Eric_Phung", + "c6309Loren_(Loren_Gwartney-Gibbs)_Morshead", + "c6365Kevin_Pennock", + "c6372Kevin_Joyce", + "c6405JeffTurner", + "c6424Grace_Zygmun_(Varney)", + "c6509CampbellMyers", + "c6534BryanHuberty" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel Here’s an excerpt on the section titled “AI As The New UX To Everything Digital”.

As discussed earlier where AI is coming for user-generated content and user-created products, it is not stopping there.

AI is coming for the consumer’s online start page, so they never leave, because AI brings them everything - content, creates the entertainment they want, designs the products they want, and finds production for it. We see this beginning to happen now.

It is very possible that the platforms en vogue now, whether its social, entertainment or commerce marketplaces, become less relevant.

What if AI is the UI for communications as well, upending existing communication platforms?

In this AI-UX model, advertising to reach consumers swings back to greater importance. But it becomes much more targeted because the AI has a richer data set about the consumer and what is important to them.

You can even think of the AI-UX as a screener of advertising. The AI will know you purchased a specific product, so you won’t see any more ads for that product category (which at present, you continue to see ads, even for months thereafter).

In this model, brands and/or creators don’t create websites for people, but platforms for AI to extract info about their products to bring to the consumer.

As a brand builder, I would be excited for this model because I can target my ads much better. And as I will be using AI to build my ads, my AI can interact with the consumer’s AI-UX to collectively create a better message.

Imagine my AI interacting with the consumer’s AI-UX, where my AI can have a full conversation about my offering, explaining the benefits, features and how my offering is different from competitors, and the consumer’s AI-UX listening and gauging whether my offering is a good fit for them.

This is the holy grail of marketers - full opportunity to sell our products. Unlike humans, where there is so much competition for our attention, AI has no such limitations.

But the flip side is that as AI becomes our screener to everything digital, brands/creators lose significant potential to sell their products using emotion and psychological triggers.

I think AI-UX opens up great potential for startups and small brands to reach potential consumers much more effectively.

For brands, the AI-UX model may elevate the importance of offline discovery and experience marketing, and lower the importance of online social commerce that we see en vogue now.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5041.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5041.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..27407ae --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5041.json @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5041", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6022Stefan_Zublasing", + "c6079Andrew_Gibbs-Dabney", + "c6193Yoon_Kim", + "c6303Kenji_Haroutunian", + "c6325Tony_McWilliam", + "c6328Scott_Howard", + "c6346SallyMcCoy", + "c6461ScottHolley", + "c6474PeterHausin", + "c6476NIckSargent", + "c6495MichaelSmith", + "c6535MoeHachem", + "c6541ToddFrank" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel. Here’s an excerpt on the section titled “Digitally-Enabled Products”. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

The third wave for apparel, after social commerce and AI-UX, is digitally-enabling apparel products.

This is in its infancy right now, which we see through the EU Digital Product Passport (DPP) legislation.

When an apparel item is made, it is static, never again changing. We want to turn it into 0’s and 1’s (code), or digitize it so that it becomes dynamic and changeable. We do that by creating its counterpart that lives on the internet. You can think of the online counterpart as a certificate of authenticity (COA) to the physical product.

But the digital COA is much more than just a document. Consider COA’s like stand-alone containers with data and software that can dynamically change over time to take on new capabilities. They connect offline products to our online world. Think of them as the link between static physical products and their dynamic digital counterparts.

The consumer, equipped with AI-UX and digitally connected products, unlocks exponential potential for themselves, the products, and the brands/creators behind them.

This future is not yet here, but to prepare for it, brands/creators must uniquely identify their products with QR codes, because products produced today, with years of useful life, will be future-proofed to this emerging paradigm of digitally-enabled products.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5042.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5042.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d14e116 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5042.json @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5042", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c3021LukeVernon", + "c5750StephenSullivan", + "c6081KrisCody", + "c6092WesAllen", + "c6260David_Wagner", + "c6261Jesse_Marble", + "c6264Nick_Thomas", + "c6319Russell_Cree", + "c6430TJTaylor", + "c6496WillDecker" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel

I adapted my futurist framework to create a tool predicting the future of apparel. Here’s an excerpt from the technology stack section. The link to the complete tool in Google Doc format is here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

Reshoring Is An Imperative

Reshoring is just the entry ticket to the new era in apparel and alone will not equate to success. But reshoring has to be done in the context of using AI and automation/robotics, covered below.

The Apparel AI Amplification Tipping Point

You need to grasp this, which is coming by 2030:

1. It is possible that AI will scale 10,000x. What if it only scales 1000x or just 100x? 100X is still an unimaginable magnification of digital intelligence.

2. Your device in your pocket and computer on your desk are projected to see a 20-50X increase in compute power.

3. AI will have 80-90% of the expertise of the best in their fields - chemists, doctors, electricians, marketers, physicists, product developers.

This unprecedented scaling of digital intelligence, computer power and expertise, all powered by renewables and millions of autonomous agents and devices (digital and physical) could be widely available, especially in the U.S.

How does AI leverage into apparel?

Here is the operations stack for the new era in apparel and some of the emerging vendors that make up this stack.

This is the infrastructure for a billion dollar company with only 3-people, or according to Sam Altman, a billion dollar company with only 1-person.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5048.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5048.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c00ed31 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5048.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5048", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5048__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Yup. Dat.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5049.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5049.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..adbe165 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5049.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5049", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "c6224PeterDiamandis", + "c6440JohnMauldin", + "c6525Dan_Steinhart" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

@dan_steinhart @RationalOptSoc @PeterDiamandis @JohnFMauldin Excerpt from Rewriting the Rules: The Future of Apparel

Don't consume less, just redirect consumption to sustainable processes that also drive economic economic stability and national security. Here's how.

Approximately 36% of Gen Z purchase new fast-fashion clothing at least once a month. Additionally, a study found that 62% of Gen Z shop at fast fashion retailers monthly. (Source). This won’t slow down and trying to get consumers to buy less is not working.

Our culture has been trained on habits of hyper-consumption, which fuels a compulsive, dopamine-chasing addiction to buy more, creating a cycle of instant gratification that leads to disposability and environmental concerns.


You don’t change habits, especially those reinforced by dopamine. You either refocus existing consumer habits or piggyback off of them to introduce new habits.


The good part of our hyper-consumption is that it drives the economy, which we will need in the future as the world struggles for GDP. The U.S. drives 30% of aggregate worldwide consumer spending, with China at 11% (and falling) and Germany at 4% (and falling), then every other country below that. We have a very robust consumer-driven economy that will continue, a pivotal economic strength for the U.S.


What if we can refocus this hyper-consumption to localized, automated, 3D-enabled, on-demand-driven, circularity-activated production, achieving close to real zero, and let consumers buy all they want?


They get to keep spending, driving the U.S. economy, which supports national security, and it's all sustainable. AI will likely reduce friction to more consumption, but it if it can be localized with circularity built in, it becomes sustainable with a limited carbon footprint


Buckmister Fuller said:

“You never change things by fighting against the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”


https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5050.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5050.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47bc5a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5050.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5050", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5050__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The primary barrier to a reindustrialized and decarbonized U.S., powered by AI and robotics is resource constraints, particularly in energy.

Historically, U.S. electricity demand has grown at less than 1% annually. During boom periods, this growth may double to around 1.5%. While we are currently in such a boom, our energy needs are now far outpacing even this elevated demand.

Consider the compounding demands on energy:

1. AI Expansion: We need energy not only to power AI systems but also to produce more AI chips and data centers. This requires scaling up energy production, which in turn demands energy to source the raw materials needed to build energy plants.

3. Reindustrialization: Revitalizing manufacturing means sourcing materials and constructing new facilities, all of which require energy. Scaling energy infrastructure to support this effort only adds to the demand.

4. Decarbonization: Transitioning to electric transportation necessitates building vehicles and the infrastructure to support them. This requires sourcing materials and constructing energy plants to power these initiatives—yet another layer of energy demand.

The result is a compounding cycle: we need more energy to produce the resources and infrastructure that allow us to generate even more energy. Current estimates suggest we must double electricity production within the next decade—a 10% annual growth rate—far beyond historical trends and current forecasts. Achieving this requires vast improvements in grid infrastructure, sourcing skilled labor, and scaling production capacity, each of which is itself energy-intensive.

See the vicious cycle at work?

The likelihood of an energy shortage could be high, forcing us to make difficult choices about energy allocation. For industries like apparel, this could mean slower progress towards the new era of apparel, which I talk about here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

Despite these challenges, there is significant momentum in addressing energy supply constraints. Innovations in energy production and infrastructure development are underway, offering hope that we can meet these demands.

I remain optimistic and believe we can scale energy production to meet these ambitious goals and enable the future of apparel within the timelines envisioned. The path is steep, but progress is within reach.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5051.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5051.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8b676b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5051.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5051", + "Date": "12/16/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5051__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Many of the challenges we face today have occurred before, so we often look to the past for solutions. This long-term chart illustrates the average tariff rate applied to imported goods. Since 1950, rates have remained historically low, with a significant gap to previous levels—if we ever return there. Tariffs have played, and likely will continue to play, a critical role in driving U.S. reindustrialization, which is an imperative if we want to fix our major challenges and enjoy future prosperity.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5052.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5052.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ddaa1ce --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5052.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5052", + "Date": "12/20/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The great Felix Zulauf predictions. He is well respected so I heed his projections. A recession is expected late 2025 or 2026, which could last a few years. A prolonged stock bear market is also forthcoming lasting several years. Could this be combined with the federal debt that hits a wall? Is this the great recession of 10% GDP fall that is seen end of this decade/early next? Will this recession be avoided or mild considering reindustrialization, fiscal and monetary efforts? If the latter 2 are in play, that could limit this recession, but signify the blow-off top we see from fiscal debt and monetary actions that are the final gasp that cause real problems on the backside for late 2020's. We do not know, but its going to get rough, either way. 2025 or 2026 looks to be the entry into the final rough years of this secular cycle.

", + "Notes": "

Shift to State Capitalism: Zulauf emphasizes a transition from free markets to state capitalism across major global economies (US, Europe, and China). Governments are likely to increasingly dictate investments to prioritize national interests, which will distort traditional market cycles

.US Economic Trends:

A strong US economy currently benefits from labor market dynamics and capital inflows due to global instability.

Zulauf anticipates a potential economic correction starting in 2025 due to policy impacts, tariffs, and liquidity constraints

.Global Geopolitical Risks:

A new era of regionalism and deglobalization is underway, driven by geopolitical conflicts and economic re-shoring.

China and Japan face significant challenges, such as demographic decline and financial instability. These pressures may lead to deflationary shocks

Commodity Outlook:

Commodities such as gold and oil are highlighted as critical assets in the face of currency debasement and inflationary policies.

Oil prices are predicted to rise significantly in the coming years, with potential geopolitical events like conflicts involving Iran acting as catalysts

Stock Market Dynamics:

A strong stock market is expected through mid-2025, driven by liquidity injections and a favorable decennial pattern.

A major bear market could emerge late in 2025 or 2026, potentially marking the end of the post-2009 bull market cycle

Europe's Structural Issues:

Europe, particularly Germany, is projected to remain in a structural economic crisis due to energy policies, over-regulation, and competitiveness loss.

A prolonged recession spanning 3–4 years is anticipated for Europe

Japan’s Role and Yen Dynamics:

Japan’s corporate sector is healthier compared to its past, but rising interest rates and efforts to strengthen the yen will affect global liquidity and equity markets

Long-Term Innovation:

While artificial intelligence and other innovations are expected to drive productivity in the long term, Zulauf warns of initial overinvestment leading to a correction before sustained growth can occur

.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5056.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5056.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..736a850 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5056.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5056", + "Date": "12/22/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5056__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is deeply unsettling. Drawing on some research, calculated projections, and my own firsthand experience using AI, I predict that by 2030 to 2035, a staggering 25% of the U.S. workforce will be replaced by AI.

Here’s a revealing look at recent test data from the newest (unreleased) version of ChatGPT. AI performance improvement has gone exponential.

It’s not just knowledge-based work that’s in jeopardy; as humanoid robotics begin to roll out on a massive scale later this decade, manual labor will also be transformed. Many jobs, careers, and specializations will be upended by this convergence.

Key industries likely to see steep drops in human labor include technology & telecom, financial services & insurance, entertainment & media, and professional services—along with any business functions that rely on these kinds of roles.

But many sectors will grow and need more people and I think will more than offset this loss.

I maintain this Google doc tool to help forecast the jobs of the future and areas that may experience minimal affects from AI. https://eddiesoehnel.com/SkillsJobsOfTheFutureWithAIDominating

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5059.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5059.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..36333ba --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5059.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5059", + "Date": "12/26/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5059__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A great glimpse into inflation using Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup Soup, and prospects on food prices for the future.

This graph offers a fascinating look into inflation trends over more than a century using the price of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup as a measure. From the early 1900s to the 1970s, inflation for this item was virtually non-existent, with prices remaining remarkably stable. However, starting in the 1970s, the graph reveals a steep and sustained upward trajectory, with inflation accelerating at an increasing pace.

Can we expect a return to the stability of the pre-1970s growth curve?

Nope.

Inflation is poised to intensify in the coming decades due to several compounding factors, including the economic impacts of climate change, the constraints on natural resources, and the indirect costs tied to the necessary reindustrialization efforts within the United States.

These pressures suggest that rising prices, like those shown in the chart, are a long-term trend we must prepare for.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5060.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5060.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a83073 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5060.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5060", + "Date": "12/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5060__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Is our current stock technology boom a bubble? Yes, using history as a guide.

This chart shows past boom periods for certain asset classes. Clearly, the current 7 top technology stocks have been on a tear for over a decade. When will it end, because at some point all booms end and come crashing back down? Some reputable forecasters say late 2025; other say the end of this decade.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5062.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5062.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2e69b3f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5062.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5062", + "Date": "12/27/2024", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5062__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Has real capital goods orders bottom and what does that have to do with each of us?

Hopefully it has. Take out the COVID plunge and you see a long downward trend.

Increasing real capital goods means we are investing in more machinery, tools, buildings, equipment, vehicles and infrastructure for the production of products and services. All of this increases our economic activity, jobs and our GDP.

We desperately need to do this to help alleviate resource constraints coming from geopolitics and climate change, and increase our economic activity to help reverse the massive wealth inequality we have.

This starts with companies reshoring production and not exporting to other countries. Real capital goods is an indicator of this activity.

Consumers can help by, where possibly, buying from products made in the U.S.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5066.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5066.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e58ccb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5066.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5066", + "Date": "1/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5066__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We're at a high for 20-year commercial mortgage delinquency rate (via commercial mortgage backed securities - CMBS). A harbinger for other business and consumer discretionary categories? I think so

No secret that COVID unleashed the WFH revolution and companies figured out they could operate just fine without expensive office space. This is reflected in the significant disruption happening in the office market, which we see in delinquency rates. I think the office category serves as an early indicator that both businesses and consumers are identifying areas of discretionary spending that are redundant and unaffordable.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5067.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5067.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aaf56fd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5067.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5067", + "Date": "1/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5067__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

It is painful to watch Europe diminish due to demographics, debt, bureaucracy and a war, all captured in this chart on GDP.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5068.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5068.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9ddbf7c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5068.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5068", + "Date": "1/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5068__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A harbinger of a looming great depression? Unlikely. However, these charts strongly suggest significant overvaluation among top U.S. stocks. It’s prudent to prepare for a deep recession—projections point to the latter part of this decade—with an expected 10% decline in GDP. While certain sectors, particularly consumer discretionary, could face depression-level contractions, others, such as technology, may remain largely unaffected.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5070.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5070.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..de62e33 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5070.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5070", + "Date": "1/4/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5070__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "High market cap weight in the top 10 stocks isn’t just a U.S. issue—it’s a global phenomenon, with the U.S. looking relatively tame compared to countries like Taiwan and Germany. The risk for retail investors is significant: if these large companies falter, entire markets could be dragged down. A long-held investment principle warns that when everyone is on the same trade—or on the same side of the boat—the potential for capsizing grows.


More charts about overvalued stocks and risks to the investing public are in my Insights Hub database here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/insights-hub/#hub-dataset-external-view/?view_1573_search=stocks&view_1573_page=1
", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5072.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5072.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01bcd7c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5072.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5072", + "Date": "1/6/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5072__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Economic indicators are becoming increasingly unreliable. Take The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) as an example—it has been signaling a recession for the past two years, yet none has officially materialized. Historically, when recessionary signals persist this long (dating back to 1960), a recession has always followed, but not this time. Why?

Certain sectors—like transportation, manufacturing, commercial office real estate, apparel, and outdoor—have clearly been in a recessionary period. Meanwhile, other sectors, particularly technology and travel, are thriving. At the same time, we’re witnessing the effects of growing wealth inequality, where fiscal and monetary policies have disproportionately benefited higher-income households. These upper-income groups, who are less affected by rising costs, continue to sustain overall economic activity through elevated spending.

In essence, the booming sectors and robust spending from wealthier households have, so far, offset the recessionary pressures faced by other sectors and the declining spending power of middle- and lower-income groups. This has created a truly bifurcated economy—commonly referred to as a \"K-shaped\" economy—where different parts of the economy experience vastly different outcomes.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5073.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5073.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56c2730 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5073.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5073", + "Date": "1/6/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5073__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Taking a long-term view of U.S. tariffs over the past 200 years, it’s evident that regardless of the era, consumers ultimately bear the cost. Although one primary purpose of tariffs is to protect or stimulate U.S. manufacturing, their effectiveness is questionable if they simply result in higher product prices for consumers. While this price increase might encourage a shift toward buying domestic goods, it only works if there are enough viable U.S.-made alternatives.

A more effective strategy might involve ensuring that foreign producers absorb the tariff costs instead of passing them on to consumers. This approach would place financial pressure directly on foreign suppliers, incentivizing them to relocate production to the U.S. or find other ways to remain competitive.

In today’s digitized economy, there’s potential to leverage AI to track pricing and detect when companies attempt to pass tariff costs onto consumers. This could enable real-time monitoring and enforcement, ensuring that tariffs serve their intended purpose without unduly burdening consumers.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5075.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5075.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3bfb895 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5075.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5075", + "Date": "1/6/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

From Klarna CEO... they will no longer hire humans*, as AI is set to take over most jobs.

Goldman CEO says that AI has automated 95% of the work of drafting an IPO prospectus document which would’ve taken a six-person team two weeks to complete.

Mark Zuckerberg has hinted that Meta could begin replacing software engineers with AI as early as 2025, marking the latest in a string of troubling predictions for the profession.

OpenAI employees leaving with scary statements about AI, wondering how they will save for retirements and raise their families.

How bad will it get when AI replaces knowledge-based, white-collar jobs? Many are uneasy—and rightfully so. To cut through the uncertainty, I took a deeper dive into the issue and built a tool (yes, with AI’s help) designed to give real answers. Whose job is at risk and how bad will it get? Read on.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/SkillsJobsOfTheFutureWithAIDominating

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5077.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5077.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49ec804 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5077.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5077", + "Date": "1/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Howard Marks memo:

  1. Elevated P/E ratios (currently around 22 for the S&P 500) have historically been associated with low subsequent returns (around ±2% annually over the next decade).
  3. Today’s market shows some bubble-like characteristics, including high valuations and concentrated gains from a few tech giants. However, it lacks the outright mania and irrational thinking seen in past bubbles.
  4. Notably, the author does not hear investors claiming “there’s no price too high,” a hallmark of previous bubbles.
  5. The author remains cautious but refrains from declaring a definitive bubble.
", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5082.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5082.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8b31ad --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5082.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5082", + "Date": "1/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5082__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

What happened in 2001? Answer: China entered the World Trade Organization, which accelerated the export of the U.S. manufacturing base overseas. This was a win-win for both China and the U.S. However, we are now beginning to see the consequences of these actions. But a fix is in motion.

As we shifted manufacturing overseas, this lowered consumer prices, giving us low inflation and an era I call \"get anything and everything, at anytime, from anywhere, at lowest costs.\"

While our manufacturing base went from 30% of work force employment in the 1970s to 8% today, we dramatically scaled our service and knowledge-based economy. Around 50% of the U.S. ,employed in knowledge-based, white collar, service work, got the American dream from this shift. The other half, in manufacturing and low-wage industries, did not.

So now we find ourselves in a (1) deeply polarized country because of these wealth disparities, (2) no growth engine left because we are saturated in product and services, (3) massive government debt and unfunded obligations with no way to pay off because we lack a growth engine, (4) resource constraints due to geopolitical conflicts and environmental problems, (5) and we are just starting to realize that AI will eliminate 25% of U.S. jobs by 2035, mostly in the knowledge-based economy.

Doom and gloom? No!

The U.S. has a tremendous opportunity to reindustrialize using AI, robotics and electrification, which gives us a new growth engine to solve our financial problems, create jobs, reduce wealth inequality and engineer sustainability into our future. But it will take all of us to do it.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5083.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5083.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..87ea2ff --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5083.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5083", + "Date": "1/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5083__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "After decades of slowing electricity demand growth, the U.S. is on the upswing, setting the stage for a new wave of reindustrialization. Notice the negative growth in the 2000's, which coincided with the transfer of our manufacturing base to China. That is reversing. I've read reports that we will see electricity growth back toward 10%.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5084.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5084.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b4e8465 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5084.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5084", + "Date": "1/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5084__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Expectations for China's growth continue to be revised lower over time. The country has deep problems and is imploding. How quickly is up for debate - I've heard this decade, but within the next 3 decades for sure. This means that the U.S. (and other countries) have to decouple from China as much as possible. The entire world will feel the effects from China's slide, but de-integration from China will help blunt some of this.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5091.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5091.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9ccf73d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5091.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5091", + "Date": "1/22/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5091__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Is this a super bubble in household wealth decades in the making? When will it burst?

This chart paints a striking picture: household wealth gains have been accelerating at an ever-steeper pace. It’s a classic parabolic rise—an asset class climbing rapidly, only to risk a sharp, fast deflation on the way down.

Much of these wealth gains are tied to real estate and stock market values, both of which drive broader economic activity and tax revenues. But charts like this raise serious concerns about the potential for a significant crash—one that could slash valuations, dampen economic activity, and dramatically cut into tax receipts. It’s a precarious house of cards waiting for a gust of wind.

How do you think policymakers should respond to this risk? Substantial wealth gains have been powered by fiscal policy and monetary policy that are injecting too much liquidity, in an effort to boost GDP, which is not working and instead, ends up inflating asset prices. Policy makers know this after decades of trying, yet they continue doing the same things because they do not know what else to do. We need a new growth engine that creates legitimate GDP growth that is broad based, helping not just upper income and wealthy, but middle and lower income classes. This will help moderate asset price growth and spread it out. That new growth engine could be reindustrialization, which when fueled by electrification, AI, robotics, and deregulation, could ignite GDP growth exceeding 6% (long term average is 3%). In summary, move away from fiscal and monetary liquidity and financialization actions and towards aggressive industrial policy. Gives us a growth engine to service sovereign debt, reduces wealth inequality by creating a new source of jobs, moves us away from financialization that inflates asset prices, reduces geopolitical risks, and allows us to build in sustainability through advanced reindustrialization that helps with environmental/climate change issues.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5092.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5092.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ff5633d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5092.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5092", + "Date": "1/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5092__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This chart is another metric showing the economic growth divergence between the U.S.- strong- and Canada - weak. We have to go back to 1997 when it was near the level as it is today.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5093.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5093.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..19e6855 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5093.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5093", + "Date": "1/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5093__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

As measured across multiple metrics like P/E, CAPE, and market cap to GDP, the S&P 500 is at historical extremes, reaching prior peaks. At these levels, history suggests decades ahead of underperformance.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5094.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5094.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0f7fdf8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5094.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5094", + "Date": "1/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5094__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This does not mean valuations won't go higher, but relative to history, stock valuations are stretched to the upside. US equity valuations, as measured by 12-month forward P/E ratios, are at 20-year peaks, even when excluding the largest technology companies.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5095.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5095.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..43542ff --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5095.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5095", + "Date": "1/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5095__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

As the atmosphere warms, it holds more moisture, fueling stronger convective storms with powerful updrafts that allow hailstones to grow larger before falling. This graphic is a snapshot for 1 year but aligns with long-term data, showing that states states are consistently experience higher-than-average insured losses from hail.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5097.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5097.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b2fa73 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5097.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5097", + "Date": "1/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Forward Guidance" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5097__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Never a good sign when corporate insiders are selling shares at record pace, in this the most since 1988.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5098.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5098.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b458ea0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5098.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5098", + "Date": "1/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5098__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Is the U.S. experiencing a shock event right now?

In my futurist work, I write about shock events throughout the modern history of the U.S. and how they represented an existential crisis for the country, which galvanized the public to solve the problem with unprecedented resources and force.

In the past week, the technology sector has been shaken by the emergence of DeepSeek, a previously obscure Chinese company that has developed AI models rivaling the best in the U.S., all while utilizing significantly fewer resources and incurring lower costs. This development comes despite existing sanctions on advanced technology.

While we can’t verify many claims made by this company, they open sourced their model and its performance indeed matches the best that U.S. companies have currently commercialized.

This latest technology feat by China comes on the heels of many other recent technology feats that demonstrates that the U.S. is barely hanging on to its position as the advanced technology leader.

We are neck-in-neck with a geopolitical foe whose goal is world domination, not peaceful coexistence.

Layer how massively far we are behind in our manufacturing infrastructure and industrial ecosystems and it is clear that we may be facing an existential threat to our way of life.

While China has colossal structural problems of its own that have sealed its doom - primarily demographics and financial - that does not mean it can’t challenge the US for a few more decades and make the world a worse place.

Even if China is not challenging us technologically, they are the world's manufacturer and unless we reindustrialize, we will face significant resource and product constraints as they implode.

As a country, we need to massively scale investment in our infrastructure, reindustrialization, technology and our workforce. But it's a collective effort and you can help!

Start by selecting an overseas-made product, reengineer it using AI-driven material science (see this resource list: https://lnkd.in/gwnFRp7C), employ automation and robotics for domestic production, and prioritize sustainability. Scaling this approach can drive immense U.S. growth, address our wealth inequality, reduce our government debt, and secure a sustainable future.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5110.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5110.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49b9674 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5110.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5110", + "Date": "2/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The decade ahead is going to be rough. We have no choice but to reshore, and we will. China is imploding due to demographics and structural financial issues. Resource constraints and climate change is beginning to make globalized supply chains unworkable. And there are coordinated efforts by the Axis of Rogues (China, Russia, Iran, N. Korea and others) to destabilize us. But the most alarming issue is the desperate scramble for income and growth. For the U.S., we have anemic growth, massive sovereign debt with no way to pay it or service it, the highest wealth inequality in our history, and AI will wipe out 25% of jobs in the coming decade. Our only option - and we have this option where most other countries do not - is to reindustrialize and do so as quickly as possible. Doing so at a massive scale will reignite our economy so we can fix our debt, wealth inequality, employment, geopolitical/national security risks and at the same time, we will reindustrialize via electrification to help reduce carbonization. We are in the opening salvos of a wrenching time that will forceus to confront these challenges - and it will not change in 4-years. Buckle up.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lloyd-vogel-180566121_25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-10-tariffs-activity-7292191355726901249-NeKg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5114.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5114.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4225c68 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5114.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5114", + "Date": "2/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

What goes up into orbit must come down, burning up harmlessly, right? Unfortunately, it's not that simple and has major implications for our ozone layer.

Take SpaceX, which has more than 7,000 Starlink satellites in earth orbit. Now, older ones are coming down - January saw 120 satellites deorbit into fireballs.

The problem is that on reentry, metallic vapors are being added to the atmosphere. The demise of just one Gen1 Starlink satellite produces about 30 kilograms (66 pounds) of aluminum oxide particles that eat away at the ozone layer. These particles catalyze chemical reactions that deplete stratospheric ozone, which protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Notably, aluminum oxides don't get consumed in these reactions, allowing them to persist and continue depleting ozone for decades as they descend through the stratosphere.

A new study finds these oxides have increased 8-fold between 2016 and 2022, and that is not counting the surge we see coming as older generation satellite deorbit in droves.

How big of a problem is this? We don't yet know.

Are there solutions? Japan has tested a wooden satellite. As innovation accelerates using AI and quantum computing, we should be able to develop new materials to counteract this problem.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102...", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5116.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5116.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..06d79a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5116.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5116", + "Date": "2/8/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is always a fantastic annual report that I look forward to reading. It covers near-term trends and long-term consumer shifts. Something in here for anyone who is in B2C or B2B2C.

https://www.vml.com/insight/the-future-100-2025

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5119.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5119.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae9c926 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5119.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5119", + "Date": "2/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A great interview with Ray Dalio and Peter Diamandis, two futurists in which I curate predictions. Please watch, or review the summary link in the ChatGPT link below, which I used via the speech-to-text of the interview. The discussion paints a cautiously pessimistic view of the near-term future (2-5 years), all of which is consistent with other futurists I follow.

https://chatgpt.com/share/67aa34ff-57d0-800e-a386-abf8021cd6c4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq0HeO31Ks4&t=6s

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5123.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5123.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f796320 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5123.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5123", + "Date": "2/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5123__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is an interesting take on the rise of Superbowl ad prices. Its foolish to compare to inflation because Superbowl ad prices are not reflected in inflation that consumers feel. It really is a measure of the value of a scarce asset that capture's consumer attention. But still, an interesting metric.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5124.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5124.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ad6547 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5124.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5124", + "Date": "2/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Disney+ is in trouble at the moment with declining subscribers, compared to Netflix, with increasing subscribers and less churn. But will this dynamic completely flip with AI? Yup. Here's why.

Disney owns valuable IP, and as consumers use AI to create the entertainment they want, they will move away from Netflix, and towards using IP that they can license from Disney, which means more dollars for Disney, and less for Netflix. Netflix has some valuable IP, but not like Disney.

I am simplifying this, as there are many other nuances to all of this, but its not what we see happening right now that is important, but what lies ahead.

I talk about this dynamic about consumers creating what they want and how it will dramatically change consumer categories, like apparel, here:

https://eddiesoehnel.com/FutureOfApparel

https://www.profgmarkets.com/p/8m-ads-streaming-wa...", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5125.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5125.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1b26230 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5125.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5125", + "Date": "2/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5125__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Here's a basic snapshot showing that others tariff the US far higher than the US tariffs them, particularly in EM and especially as you dig into particular goods.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5126.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5126.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63d3dca --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5126.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5126", + "Date": "2/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a great analysis making the case for why big tariffs are coming. Read this and you will see the needle that must be thread to address debt, the economy, inflation, taxes and more, and all at the same time, without breaking anything. A really tough job, no matter who is in charge.

https://x.com/ces921/status/1888358706930487651?t=-kkDipJleNtkogeq59iOMw&s=03

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5130.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5130.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c1bd486 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5130.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5130", + "Date": "2/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A great follow-up question to my post on the Superbowl ad prices (

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_this-is-an-interesting-take-on-the-rise-of-activity-7295109339340554240-rt2r)

from https://www.linkedin.com/in/muzamilzia/: \"if you had to predict the next “scarce asset” in marketing, what would it be?\"

To create my response, I combined my thoughts into a discussion with ChatGPT o1 and the results are as follows.

A “scarce marketing channel” includes:

(1) Situations where everyone’s attention converges in a finite space (or time) and which captures cultural relevance that feels relevant or exclusive and which FOMO applies. Future predictions for for what this may be include esports and metaverse events.

(2) Gatekeeper power that controls access to or attention of the consumer. The future prediction for this are AI gatekeepers, which will emerge as the start and end place for consumer's digital life, bringing them search, content, communications, creating entertainment for them, buying/creating products for them, etc., replacing all the various other start pages currently used (gmail, tik tok, insta, neflix, amazon, etc). AI-UX will become the gatekeeper to consumers and control their attention, where advertisers will have to pay to a price to get access to the consumer, and where the price to access the consumer will vary based on demographics, psychographics, purchase intent, etc., and be where it is possible that the AI and the consumer share in the revenue earned for this access.

The ChatGPT discussion is here, covering many other related topics and ideas: https://chatgpt.com/share/67acdffd-fe04-800e-ad16-36c4e40f0d12

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5133.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5133.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ac3662a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5133.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5133", + "Date": "2/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The progress of AI has gone exponential, which is bleeding over into other technologies (because they are being enabled by AI). Here's past predictions by Ark on artificial general intelligence (AGI) with annual adjustments

- In 2020, AGI was 50 years away;

- 2021, AGI was 34 years away;

- 2022, it was 18 years;

- 2023, it was 8 years;

- AGI now likely in 2026 or 2027.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5134.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5134.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..203a28f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5134.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5134", + "Date": "2/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

U.S. federal debt is on the verge of spiraling out of control, where debt grows uncontrollably due to compounding interest and rollovers. Can we dial this back to where it stabilizes without serious consequences? Yes, it is still possible.

Dialing it back means instead of having an annual deficit of ~1.7 trillion - our current track, we get back to a deficit of only about 800 billion. This still means our debt will grow over the long haul, but pulls us back from the brink so that we have breathing room to do things that will meaningfully increase GDP growth so that we can eventually pay down the debt (where our revenue is greater than our expenses).

DOGE is attempting to do this now by finding 1 trillion or so in savings. Other big levers are lowering interest rates and raising taxes. Employing a combination might get us there without creating undue stress, as Dalio posits.

However, this assumes nothing else goes off the rails too badly, like economic and trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, recessions. A tough needle to thread, but not impossible, and if we can layer on serious industrial policy, ramp up immigration and we all cooperate on reindustrializing the U.S., we could sail out of our predicament inside a decade, or maybe even a lot sooner.

What can each of us do? Reindustrialize our products and companies and buy American-made. This is really hard to do, but we have to start ASAP.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-countries-go-broke-chapter-15-16-ray-dalio-4oefe/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5135.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5135.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..694cc69 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5135.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5135", + "Date": "2/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5135__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

There is a lot in this chart, which shows wages to GDP and demonstrates a long slide that started in the 1970's. What has caused this? Many things:

1. We globalized and sent manufacturing abroad.

2. We saw increased productivity through technology advances, where we can do more with less labor.

3. We financialized our economy, where the financial sector has become a larger share of GDP

4. Corporate earnings as a share of GDP has steadily increased, which benefits shareholders more than labor.

5. Wages have not kept pace with inflation.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5137.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5137.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b9952d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5137.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5137", + "Date": "2/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5137__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The average age of passenger cars on the roads in the US continues to rise. Many factors at play here:

- new car price increases have exceeded inflation, where wages over the decades have not kept up with inflation

- modern cars last longer

- demand for used cars remains strong

- consumers waiting for better EV options before upgrading

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5150.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5150.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0505008 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5150.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5150", + "Date": "2/22/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5150__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Mutual fund cash balances are at record low. Where is that cash? It is invested, and at valuation levels that are quite high and at record peaks by many measures. Is there overconfidence? Seems to me that there is. Historically, very low cash levels can precede market corrections. If market corrections happen and investors redeem, then funds are forced to sell assets, which amplifies corrections.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5155.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5155.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..81e1a39 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5155.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5155", + "Date": "2/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c5919Wietske_Helle", + "Companies": "EatQ", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wietske-helle_shutting-down-our-startup-activity-7300111039562493953-k74H?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAADgggYBNc4k8X6ubqSkPVIdB0fKUw4yfF0 Its early but indications are that consumers will migrate from using internet start pages (google, netflix, TT, etc) to a single start page that is an AI, which manages their digital footprint, bringing them products, communications, search, creating entertainment for them, placing orders, etc. If so, then brands need to adjust their SEO to convince the AI gatekeeper to be able to reach consumers. In this landscape, SEO is shifting away from keywords towards deeper context (called GEO - generative engine optimization), so all the data you capture becomes more important. I am wondering if you become a specialized index of CPG products that AI will crawl/search to help provide AI search engines with more context. Your model switches from wholesale applications towards D2C applications, where you are helping brands become more findable in this emerging landscape where AI gatekeepers control access to the consumer overlord. Your rev model is subscription where brands pay you to host their GEO data. I think also its is possible that an ad marketplace will emerge where brands will need to pay to get access to their consumer overlords. It might be an easy jump for you to go there as well.


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5164.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5164.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bcce5bc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5164.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5164", + "Date": "3/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5164__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The top 10% of earners account for half of all spending. Looking at the trends, this top income group has been growing disproportionally faster than all other groups. It is bad news for an economy where the wealthy get wealthier. Wealth inequality is why we have so much political polarization. What's worse is that this top income quartile is really the only one keeping our economy afloat. - if they falter, then we are in a real world of hurt.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5165.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5165.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7ebcc8d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5165.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5165", + "Date": "3/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

How AI start pages are changing search, and what that means for retailers and brands. In a nutshell, as consumers use AI to search and buy products, it is reinforcing a trend a came up with several years ago called \"The Barbellization of Brands\": you are either no brand competing on price and efficiency, or you are an ultra brand competing on brand and connection to consumers. See this tool to help you figure out where you want to be: https://lucid.app/lucidchart/40aa92cc-8ed4-4573-b8...

https://hbr.org/2025/02/ai-agents-are-changing-how-people-shop-heres-what-that-means-for-brands?utm_source=tldrmarketing

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5166.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5166.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6c5285 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5166.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5166", + "Date": "3/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5166__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Berkshire Hathaway/Warren Buffett has record cash again, just like it did before previous market crashes. Probably nothing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5167.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5167.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d30dc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5167.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5167", + "Date": "3/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5167__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The number of unsold completed homes has hit a high unseen since 2009. You'd think that as supply increases, prices fall, which allows people to afford them, then supply decreases. But our housing shortage is in affordable resale homes, not necessarily new, higher-priced builds that tend to show up on statistics like this.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5168.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5168.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3056416 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5168.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5168", + "Date": "3/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5168__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Amazing chart showing the median age of homebuyers. I drew in the slope lines showing the parabolic rise , starting in 2010 and accelerating in 2020. A few things going on in this cart:

1. Reduced affordability: Higher home prices (especially after 2020) mean younger buyers are often priced out, delaying the age at which they can buy.

3. Changing demographics: Larger cohorts of older buyers (downsizing or buying vacation homes) can push up the median.

3. Shifts in life milestones: People may be marrying, starting families, and purchasing homes later than in previous generations.

But I think the standout reason is reduced affordability.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5169.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5169.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4c2638c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5169.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5169", + "Date": "3/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

There is a single product class poised to alter consumer behavior and remaking entire industries in the next 10-years, maybe even more than AI. I can't think of any consumer spending segment that won't be significantly affected. This will upend entire industry practices - some quite negatively and others quite positively. Which side of this coin are you on? Although early, there is enough market validation to start giving serious consideration to how GLP-1 drugs will affect you, your company, your industry and skillset.

https://wildfirelabs.substack.com/p/the-100-trillion-disruption-the-unforeseen

", + "Notes": "

The $100 Trillion Disruption: The Unforeseen Economic Earthquake

While Silicon Valley obsesses over AI, a weight-loss drug is quietly becoming the biggest economic disruptor since the internet. Here's why your job, investments, and future depend on understanding it

Todd Gagne

Nov 21, 2024


In 2021, Lisa Chen, a software engineer, started a new weight-loss medication. Then, something interesting happened at her local coffee shop, her employer's healthcare costs, and the global economy.


In six months, Lisa stopped buying her daily morning muffin, causing the coffee shop to lose $600 in annual revenue from one customer. Within a year, she canceled her beer-of-the-month subscription and stopped ordering late-night DoorDash. By 2023, her grocery bill dropped 40%, alcohol spending fell 85%, and impulse Amazon purchases plunged 60%.


Lisa is one person. Her story will become the story of hundreds of millions. That's where this becomes intriguing.


Economic revolutions rarely come from expected sources. Despite the AI hype, the biggest transformation of our lifetime might come from diabetes drugs.


Let me explain why this is more important than you realize.


If you told someone in 1850 that air conditioning would reshape the global economy, they'd think you were crazy. But it made the American South habitable year-round, revolutionized manufacturing in hot climates, and enabled computing by keeping servers cool. The most significant changes arise from the most surprising sources.


GLP-1 drugs are our air conditioner moment.


We're not just talking about weight loss. We're discussing the first medication that effectively regulates human impulse control. Think about that.


Our economy is built on impulses. These include midnight snacks, impulse purchases, extra drinks, and the \"treat yourself\" mentality driving trillion-dollar industries.


What happens when a weekly injection regulates those impulses?


Here's where the numbers become astonishing.


Analysts predict that by 2030, 30% of American adults will be on these medications, changing consumption patterns for 78 million people. But those projections, impressive as they seem, fail to capture the full picture like 1995 internet forecasts.


They're focusing on the first-order effects: weight loss, healthcare savings, reduced food consumption.


The significant economic impact occurs in the second and third-order effects.


Consider this: When alcohol consumption drops 40% (as it does for many people on these medications), we're not just talking about lower beer sales. We're talking about:


- 45% reduction in DUIs


- A 28% drop in violent crime


- A fundamental restructuring of the social economy


- A transformation of dating apps and social media engagement


- A reimagining of every restaurant's business model


When companies like Google see their healthcare costs drop by $12,000 per employee annually and productivity increase by 25%, we observe a restructuring of corporate America that makes remote work a minor adjustment.


The real economic impact occurs in the second and third-order effects. In complex systems, the most interesting changes occur at the edges.


Let me show you what I mean.


A movie theater chain recently analyzed their user data and discovered that 72% of their profits came from concessions, primarily from impulse purchases made by people who swore they \"wouldn't buy anything.\"


Imagine a world where those impulses are chemically regulated.


AMC Theaters is testing \"micro-portion\" concessions and \"experience-focused\" premium seating. But they're missing the bigger picture: When human impulse control changes, the entire entertainment venue business model must change.


The NFL understands this better than most. They're redesigning stadiums for 2026, converting 40% of their concession space into \"experience zones.\" They know that in five years, selling $14 beers and $8 hot dogs won't pay the bills. The future is about selling experiences that don't rely on impulse purchases.


But here's where it gets interesting.


Consider your struggling local mall. About 40% of its remaining retail tenants rely on impulse purchases for profitability. When those impulses disappear, so does the traditional retail model.


America's largest mall operator, Simon Property Group, is converting anchor stores into medical centers and wellness spaces. They're doing this because they recognize the writing on the wall.


The advertising industry is the most fascinating case study.


For decades, the advertising model was simple: Trigger an emotional response, create an impulse, convert it into a purchase. This foundation supports the $400 billion global advertising industry.


What happens when those emotional triggers stop working?


Early consumer data on GLP-1s shows:


- 65% reduction in response to food advertising


- 40% lower click-through rates on impulse products


- 85% decrease in late-night online shopping


Madison Avenue is quietly panicking. One major agency (which asked not to be named) estimates that 50% of their current advertising strategies will be obsolete by 2027. They are right to worry.


Here's the plot twist: A new marketing economy is emerging while traditional advertising declines.


Companies that understand this are adapting:


- Whole Foods is shifting from endcap promotions to subscription services.


- Nike is shifting from \"Just Do It\" impulse messaging to long-term wellness partnerships.


- American Express is restructuring rewards from dining cashback to health incentives.


The real estate market is undergoing a transformation.


A commercial real estate firm modeled the impact of 30% of restaurants reducing their footprint by 40% (current 2028 projection). The result? About 95 million square feet of retail space will need repurposing.


That's equivalent to 57 Mall of Americas.


The interesting part isn't the empty space. It's what's filling it: Medical clinics, wellness centers, experience venues, and micro-fulfillment centers for the new economy.


The pattern here isn't just about decline; it's about transformation.


Industries built on immediate gratification must answer an uncomfortable question: What's your business model when humans can regulate their impulses?


Some industries are finding fascinating answers:


- Movie theaters becoming \"social experience centers\"


- Retail spaces becoming venues to \"try before you subscribe\"


- Restaurants becoming \"social nutrition centers\"


- Shopping malls converting to \"wellness districts\"


The smartest players aren't fighting the change. They're surfing the wave.


Look at Las Vegas. Five major casinos are redesigning their floor plans, shrinking restaurant and bar space by 35% and expanding wellness spas and medical tourism facilities. Vegas, the city built on impulse spending, is investing in the post-impulse economy.


But here's where it gets darker, and why this story is more significant than the raw numbers suggest.


Throughout history, every major advancement in human capability has created winners and losers. The industrial revolution created unprecedented wealth while displacing millions. The internet democratized information while decimating traditional industries.


These drugs create the biggest capability gap between humans since literacy.


Imagine two employees. One can afford these medications, the other cannot. One has regulated impulses, higher energy, better focus, and lower healthcare costs. The other doesn't. In a few years, data shows the first is three times more likely to be promoted.


Scale that across society.


We expect by 2030:


- 80% coverage in the top income quintile


- 5% coverage in the bottom quintile


- An 8:1 access ratio between urban and rural areas


- A 35% productivity gap between users and non-users


This isn't just about economics anymore. It's about the society we're creating.


The optimist in me sees the potential: A healthier, more productive society with lower healthcare costs, less crime, and higher economic output. The $612 billion annual savings could transform American society.


The realist in me sees the challenges: 8.5 million jobs at risk, widening inequality, and a two-tier society divided not by education or wealth, but by behavioral control.


The historian in me knows every major economic transformation has been messy, complicated, and unstoppable.


Here's what I keep returning to: In 1903, the Wright brothers flew their first plane. By 1914, we conducted aerial warfare. By 1969, we were on the moon. The gap between invention and transformation is shrinking with each technological leap.


We're at the beginning of something similar. This time, we're not transforming transportation, information, or manufacturing. We're transforming human behavior.


The $100 trillion figure in the title isn't hyperbole; it's conservative. When you change how hundreds of millions of people make decisions, the economic impact is incalculable.


Ask Lisa's coffee shop.


The question isn't whether this transformation is coming, but whether we're ready for it and can manage it better than previous economic revolutions.


History suggests we won't get it right. Trying to stop it would be like halting the internet in 1995.


The future is coming, one injection at a time. The only question is whether we will shape it or let it shape us.

" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5170.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5170.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..65b0291 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5170.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5170", + "Date": "3/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5170__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Another parabolic chart in the area of residential real estate and homeownership. This shows the difference between median income and the income needed to qualify for homeownership. It went parabolic during the pandemic, when people with the means wanted to move + government stimulus that put more in people's pockets + general lack of supply for affordable housing + stock market gains. Charts that go parabolic often turn and plummet on the backside as they go back to trend. That means either dramatic across-the-board increases in wages or dramatic falls in real estate values. You won't get both at the same time. My bet is clearly on the latter.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5171.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5171.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9529e7b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5171.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5171", + "Date": "3/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5171__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "One giant reason why we as a country are having such a hard time fixing our problems is because economic (and political) control is centered around older generations, especially baby boomers. Some want to keep things as they are because they are doing just fine; change disrupts this. Some are OK with change, as long as they can do it on their timeline without disrupting their economic well-being. Some are afraid that change will render their skills and value obsolete and don't want to start over learning new things. Some try to lead change but in context of what they know and what worked in the past, but the past is no longer relevant. Reticence to change results from comfort and ego. As a result, change happens much more slowly than it should, which means problems get worse, which leads to shock events where we hit the wall and are forced, painfully, to change. History always repeats because human behavior never changes.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5172.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5172.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..35d2238 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5172.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5172", + "Date": "3/8/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Valuations in our investments markets - equity+bonds+real estate - are forming an epic top that could unravel over decades and could take equally as long to recover. Here is why.

1. U.S. equity+bonds+real estate (residential and commercial) is valued at ~$180 trillion, of which ~$60 trillion is owned by foreign investors. When you apply the populist flavor of politics that is trending worldwide along with increasing financial pressures that every country is facing and geopolitical conflicts (whether kinetic like wars or trade policies), that means that countries will increasingly seek to return capital home. This is highly negative for maintaining valuations in the U.S. market that has so much foreign investment. We have to expect that in the coming decade or two, significant foreign investment will leave and return to its own shores.

2. As our economy is increasingly dependent on spending by the top 1/3 income brackets, which derives its wealth mostly from investments, if investment valuations falter, they stop spending, which means there is little left to power our economy.

3. Layer on recessions and we could be seeing even greater losses in valuations of these assets, which means less spending by consumers (especially the top 1/3) and less taxes to support government services (which are also dependent on rising valuations to support taxes on capital gains).

It all becomes a viscous downward cycle that compounds.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5173.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5173.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b3a818 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5173.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5173", + "Date": "3/8/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5173__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The percentage of auto loan borrowers with low credit scores that are late on car payments hit a record high. I can't see how this can turn around given current economic, political, geopolitical and environmental challenges that are heaping stress on consumers that are not in the top echelons of income and asset ownership, which means 2/3 of the country.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5174.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5174.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c95f7bb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5174.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5174", + "Date": "3/8/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5174__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

A depressing chart showing relentless erosion of spending over the decades. The bottom 2/3 of the U.S. income brackets spend less, where the top brackets spend more, because they are gaining the income and wealth. We need a balanced economy with an especially healthy middle class, but this is no longer the case. Wealth inequality is the root of our political polarization and increasingly, the root of the financial stress that the bottom 2/3 of the country is experiencing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5177.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5177.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..89e775a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5177.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5177", + "Date": "3/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "
The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.” Warren Buffett

People like the idea of doing good but if it means spending more, they decline. Decades of globalization spoiled us with whatever we wanted, at anytime and at lowest prices. But that gravy train is ending. To fix environmental, health and social issues causes by our profligacy, we have to pay more, yet we won't, so our challenges will only continue to escalate.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91281659/shoppers-say-...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5179.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5179.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8de471f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5179.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5179", + "Date": "3/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5179__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

So far, ChatGTP is winning the AI growth war as it is adding more users faster than the other competing platforms. It is still early and Google, Meta, Amazon/Anthropic and maybe Apple have huge installed user bases as well as compute capabilities, but the clear winner thus far is apparent.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5181.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5181.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1fd4e4d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5181.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5181", + "Date": "3/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5181__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

US federal deficit just keeps getting worse, headed for a breaking point sometime in the future. Imagine making $100,000 per year, with debt of $800,000, paying 25% of income towards just interest expense. This debt-to-income ratio of 8-to-1 far exceeds that in the private sector, which maxes out at 2.5-to-1 for consumers. This is the U.S. We rely on investors and many foreigners to lend us money - if they stop accepting our debt, we are bankrupt, and that point is approaching. When? No ones knows, but it can't go on indefinitely. If we hit bankruptcy, then we have to make deep budget cuts, which will be very painful.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5182.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5182.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b64d311 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5182.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5182", + "Date": "3/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5182__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interesting long-term chart showing small business uncertainty, which is at a record high. It's understandable with the whiplash we get daily from economic news, but will that translate to reduced investment and business activity? Unknown, but we will find out here very soon.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5183.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5183.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fd18fac --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5183.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5183", + "Date": "3/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5183__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart show cumulative U.S. utility-scale battery power capacity. Total U.S. electricity generation is 1,300 gigawatts, and we need at least 200 GW of battery storage to integrate higher levels of renewables and maintain grid reliability. A fully decarbonized grid (80-90% renewables) would need 400-800 GW of energy storage. We have a long way to go but so far, its trend up in the right direction.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5184.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5184.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5257b3a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5184.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5184", + "Date": "3/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5184__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Consumer survey on expected business conditions is reached record high across the last 45 years. High marks like now tend to be indicative of recessions. Are we in one now? Will be be in the near future? No one knows and we can't predict the near term. As of Q4 2024, the average U.S. household's credit card debt surpassed $10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009. Major lenders, like American Express and Capital One, have seen stock declines averaging 12% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500's drop. Says one economist: “We’re seeing heightened credit stress among high-income consumers.” The rate of late payments among high-income consumers (earning $150,000 or more) has more than doubled from January 2023 to January 2025. A February survey by the Federal Reserve found consumers felt they had a 14.6% chance (the highest since April 2020) of being unable to make minimum debt payments in the next three months. Consumers, especially the upper income brackets, have kept the economy sound, but is that now breaking down?", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5185.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5185.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7bc59c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5185.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5185", + "Date": "3/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5185__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Federal government spending as a percentage of GDP has seen unrelenting growth since the 1930's, largely because of an aging population living longer that draws increasing amounts of social security, Medicare and Medicaid, interest on debt, defense spending that has been growing mostly since the 1980's, and then layer on emergency spending around crises like COVID. Add in state and local, and 50% of GDP is government spending. We don't just cut government spending by firing a few people and cutting back small, insignificant programs. The only way to cut spending is to tackle these big items listed above, especially entitlement programs that are mandatory.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5188.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5188.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0653125 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5188.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5188", + "Date": "3/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5188__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The U.S. is now a net importer of agriculture commodities. Why the shift? Countries like Brazil have ramped up exports, we are importing more fresh produce, specialty crops and tropical products, tariffs and trade disputes, and like so much of our industrial capacity, we have exported it because it is cheaper.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5189.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5189.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d88abe1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5189.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5189", + "Date": "3/19/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5189__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Interest expense on federal debt has gone parabolic and it stands to increase a lot more because more than 75% of our debt will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates in the next 4 years. How can we afford this? We cannot. Here's our main options: (1) Either the federal reserve buys the debt and issues cash, which skyrockets inflation; (2) the federal reserve drops rates to nothing, which means we might be able to refinance at low rates to keep interest expense as low as possible, but this could also skyrocket inflation; (3) No one buys the debt because they won't accept low rates on suck risky debt, which means we default, which means we cut government spending severely, which means we enter a serious recession/depression. Any or a combination of the above would be painful. Are there ways to thread this needle and be OK? Possibly. Are there other creative (even extreme) actions that our government will employ to help avert disaster? Most definitely (and we are already are heading down this path). I list them in this working paper on what we should expect for the future.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/ReckoningAndResurgenceSum...

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5192.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5192.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6249732 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5192.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5192", + "Date": "3/23/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5192__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The length of tasks AI can do is doubling every 7 months. This suggests that in a few years, AI will be able to do a full 8-hour shift without breaks or intervention by humans. As AI can reliably execute long tasks, it will reshape industries, from knowledge work to automation-heavy fields. I am salivating at this productivity potential - instead of one of me, it will be like having 3 of me. But I am also becoming increasingly terrified of the job displacement that will happen. Any gains from AI will be negated if we don't create new jobs for people.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5193.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5193.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d4c5c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5193.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5193", + "Date": "3/23/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5193__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Not surprising that the views of young people in the US on many aspects of politics, society and wellbeing have deteriorated. How do we reverse this? I believe a once-in-a-generation economic boom is coming for the U.S. from a perfect alignment of factors and we need to engage with young people to help them see it and take advantage of it. Younger generations did nothing to create the challenges we have today - but they are inheriting all of it. Older generations have to step up.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5194.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5194.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9186e95 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5194.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5194", + "Date": "3/23/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5194__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Delinquency rate in multifamily housing has reached peaks not seen since the 2008-2009 GFC. Lower income classes are under significant pressure.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5197.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5197.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6aa3f70 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5197.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5197", + "Date": "3/28/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

No surprises here, but while the shift from Hollywood to creators has been and continues, the next shift will be away from content creators to where consumers use AI to design the entertainment that they want. That is already happening in early stages. AS AI improves, it \"compresses the middle\", as I call it, taking out everything else used to create entertainment, where its just the consumer, AI, possibly some licensing of IP from brands and dumb pipes (fiber, mobile terrestrial, satellite).

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/deloitte-gen-z-creator-content-streaming-price-1236171227

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5199.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5199.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3daf87 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5199.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5199", + "Date": "3/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5199__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Delinquencies on FHA home mortgage loans just hit their highest since the GFC of 2008-2009. These loans are backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and are designed to make homeownership more accessible—especially for first-time homebuyers or those with less-than-perfect credit. Lots of stress increasing on middle-to-low income segments.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5200.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5200.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b396b56 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5200.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5200", + "Date": "3/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5200__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Debt issuance went parabolic in 1997. What's the problem and why did it explode that year? It is not just the U.S., but the whole world is awash in debt, an obligation against future income, which is fine if income is rising, but the world in aggregate is struggling to grow, making debt that much harder to pay back. The world continues to amass massive debt in hopes that growth will return to pay it back. That is not likely at this point due to demographics and costs from climate change and geopolitics. Some countries like the U.S. have the opportunity for boom growth in the coming decades to pay back debt. What happened in 1997? That is when derivatives were first introduced, making it far easier to issue debt and facilitate rehypothecation (when a broker or bank reuses collateral posted by a client to secure its own borrowing), enabling a more complex and leveraged system around debt and collateral.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5203.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5203.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..46b25b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5203.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5203", + "Date": "3/31/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5203__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I hear that the corporate and private sector is in good shape with lower debt, and relative to the past there is truth to that. But both being in good shape is dependent on government spending. Federal spending is 25% of GDP. There could be some leverage where a dollar spent by the federal government influences economic activity beyond this figure. Say its 1.5, then federal spending alone commands 37% of GDP. If/when the federal government starts cutting spending because of atrocious debt levels, that is going to impact the economy, probably quite significantly. The corporate and private sector could go from being in good shape to bad shape, as they discover their fortunes are built on a house of cards.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5206.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5206.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5a5a2e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5206.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5206", + "Date": "4/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5206__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Banks are regulated, but they lend money to non-regulated financial firms. The percentage of a bank's loans to these non-regulated firms has been increasing and shot up in 2024. Why? Because that is where the profits have been. But there are serious cracks forming in all these private lending markets. When any or all of these markets hit a wall, that means banks will experience losses. How severe, who knows. But some banks for sure may likely fail. It is important for consumers to bank with the top 3 - JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, because these three are so large that they are systemically critical, which means the federal government will backstop them (hopefully, but in todays environment, nothing and no one is secure).

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5207.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5207.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b8ee3d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5207.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5207", + "Date": "4/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5207__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a \"WOW\" chart that got my attention. The repurchase agreement market (REPO) is up 6x since the pandemic. What is it: a surge in short-term borrowing by participants, which includes banks, hedge funds, money market funds and the Federal Reserve. Why: the surge in issuance of federal debt plus rise in interest rates has caused participants to shift borrowing and lending cash short-term. For what purposes: maximize returns and use it for transactions of any kind. What does this mean? Rapid growth can signal hidden leverage. It could be a canary in the coal mine for underlying stress in financial markets.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5208.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5208.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d8d14b1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5208.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5208", + "Date": "4/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5208__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We need to build our core infrastructure around energy, AI, robotics and resource extraction in order to fuel a U.S. economic boom that is in front of us. A big part of that is distributed infrastructure, rather than centralized, to boost resiliency. But this distributed infrastructure would go way beyond just resiliency. As consumers increase ownership of infrastructure (home solar and batteries), robots, drones, semicondcutors/computers, broadband connections, self-driving vehicles - any hardware - excess capacity can be marshalled through decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) to compensate owners for using their equipment. Think of marrying robots and excess garage space for manufacturing, or drones with excess garage space to create decentralized and localized warehouse space that delivers products to consumers in the immediate neighborhoods. DePIN is already here in telecom (See Helium). Peer-to-peer rentals of gear and equipment have only seen failures, but as we get DePIN and new decentralized and distributed online technologies, they could become viable.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5209.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5209.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a1308ec --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5209.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5209", + "Date": "4/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5209__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Inflation's trend vs the past. We had decade upon decade of falling/low inflation from globalization, but that has ended. We now need to reshore to build in supply chain resiliency and create jobs. Add on costs being heaped on from climate change and natural disasters. All of this portends higher inflation, which means interest rates stay higher as our economy remains weak and anemic. Stagflation for sure. While we may not be able to reduce inflation, we have incredible opportunities coming online to increase our economic growth. A savior in our increasingly desperate times.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5210.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5210.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..107864c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5210.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5210", + "Date": "4/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5210__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Foreign ownership of U.S. stock hit a record. This could start to reverse as all countries repatriate their monies to support their economies (and it likely won't be voluntary as they will be forced to do so, including the U.S.). How much downward pressure will this put on our equity markets? Unknown, but it is a significant risk. If the U.S. forces citizens and corporations to reshore wealth here because of economic difficulties, will they put it into the equity markets? I wager probably not, because that money will be needed to buy government debt. To me, the risks of being long equity are pretty significant. Investors can't be passive about investing or rely on their financial advisors (who get paid for them to be invested). They have to be active and really understand what they are doing, which sadly, most retail investors don't do. Many will lose a lot.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5214.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5214.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e700e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5214.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5214", + "Date": "4/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5214__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a snapshot of trade dependency by the G20, with the U.S. at the bottom. This is imports + exports combined. The U.S. has a robust consumer-driven economy with lots of serving spend, so we can weather trade disputes generally better than others. Well, weather is a relative term. Its really dependent on how much pain a country and its citizens are willing to endure in trade disputes. The U.S. is pretty spoiled, so not so much I think.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5219.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5219.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fcb4556 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5219.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5219", + "Date": "4/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5219__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Entitlement spending is enormous, a system setup almost 100 years ago but which could not anticipate its growth to where it is today. 100 million people are on Medicaid - or 1 for every 3.4 people. That is a staggering amount. How do we reform this to get spending down? Can we? The U.S. spends the most per person on healthcare yet we are the sickest nation among all developed nations. The key is to reduce medical spending per person and programs like the Cleveland Clinic are leading the way. Their voluntary wellness program cuts their costs relative to the national average by 38% and rising. 75% of employees participate, and those that do not pay more in healthcare costs. The average Medicare recipient generates expenses (in excess of their premiums) of about $13,730 in 2023; CBO expects that number to reach $22,170 in 2033. If we expanded the Cleveland Clinic program nationwide and cut the 22,170 by 40%, that would be enormous savings right there through voluntary participation in things that everyone can do to improve their health. But the lucky break in reducing health costs could be GLP-1 - that is, Ozempic, Mounjaro, and all GLP-1-related weight loss technology. More than 70% of the U.S. population is classified as obese with direct and indirect costs estimated at $1.7 trillion, not to mention the costs of the industrial food complex to addict you to unhealthy food and then hand you off to the Diabetes Industrial Complex. These drugs could massively disrupt not just the weightloss markets, but the junk food and health care markets, giving us an enormous reduction in health care costs that we never saw coming. It is imperative we disrupt the food industrial complex, use innovation to drive down health care costs and force people to engage in basic things to improve their health like the Cleveland Clinic is doing.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5220.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5220.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8fbe6fb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5220.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5220", + "Date": "4/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Dig a little and there is a massive, grassroots wave building in the U.S. around innovation and reindustrialization, which will not just democratize the gains to reduce wealth inequality, but ironically make us the cheapest manufacturer the world over. We have serious challenges, but unmatched assets to solve them and usher in a new economic supercycle for the U.S. that carries us the rest of this century. See here what is happening in supersonic flight alone, technologies which these upstarts are creating that can be repurposed in other industries and applications. No time for doom and gloom for the U.S. We have to seize the opportunities that have been gift wrapped and given to us.

https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/the-near-term-future-of-flight

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5222.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5222.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6501856 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5222.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5222", + "Date": "4/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

There’s no denying it—chaos is everywhere. The U.S. is a mature empire on the verge of collapse, buckling under the weight of debt, obligations, and internal division. The end? Not even close. Beneath the noise, there’s an anchor we can all hold onto—one powerful enough to pull us through and launch America into its next economic supercycle. Few see it yet. But it's real. And it’s growing. This isn’t policy-driven. It’s a grassroots, non-political movement—a quiet but undeniable return to what made the U.S. economically unstoppable in the first place. The irony? This anchor—what I call The Grand Setup—will turn the U.S. into the cheapest manufacturer in the world. I break it down in my latest working paper. It’s the light at the end of the tunnel—but only if we choose to grab hold.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/TheNextAmericanBoom


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5223.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5223.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8b83903 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5223.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5223", + "Date": "4/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5223__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "China's trade surplus to the world is staggering and this is unsustainable. It's not just the U.S., but many countries are erecting trade barriers to shield their industries from China. If China cannot export, it is in trouble as it does not have a meaningful domestic economy. Can it stimulate its economy to boost domestic consumption? Unknown, but so far, what China has done and is doing is not working. Its core problem is demographics that are no longer able to spend as needed to propel China's economy forward.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5226.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5226.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2e9c648 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5226.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5226", + "Date": "4/19/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5226__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This one chart says a lot about our future and how we should plan. Sea level rise isn’t just happening—it’s accelerating. From 1993 to 2002, sea levels rose an average of 2.1 mm/year. From 2015 to 2024? That pace more than doubled to 4.7 mm/year. This trend has real consequences for real estate, infrastructure, and population migration: Don’t just think coastal — even low-lying inland areas are at risk from flooding due to storm surge and upstream river overflow. Climate extremes will make some areas increasingly unlivable—heat domes, water shortages, hurricane and tornado alleys, and more. Northern inland states may become the next real estate frontier in the U.S.—offering safer, more temperate zones for future living. Southern migration is strong today, but could reverse rapidly as risk perceptions shift. What does that mean for property values and tax bases in those states?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5228.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5228.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..752e1b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5228.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5228", + "Date": "4/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5228__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Private equity investors are not able to monetize their investments, either by going public or selling the company. This has been building as a problem for at least 5-years. We're in an anemic economy that will only get worse as the decade unfolds, yet investment has been pouring into companies. Without a way to exit, this ties up capital that could be available for future investments, but also depresses investment returns. Many investors are large funds, so if their investment returns are depressed, that affects retail investors.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5229.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5229.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8957841 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5229.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5229", + "Date": "4/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5229__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Americans want manufacturing to return, but don't want to work in manufacturing because they conjure up impressions of what it has been in the past. This is outdated thinking because the future is a significant departure of the past. Manufacturing of the future is decentralized, deplatformed and democratized via AI and robotics owned by freelancers, small businesses, community-owned networks of production and households, which will make America the cheapest manufacturer in the world, usher in a new middle-class and birth the next U.S. economic supercycle. I explain in my working paper on Future Growth Engines For The U.S.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WMY24vrRMjzs6VLTfQmx6cFPZi9Nq5Ac9rL3fhvVsrc/edit?usp=sharing

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5230.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5230.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d879e69 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5230.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5230", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Great short article touching on a lot of factors, including experience marketing, product quality, gaming, jewelry, watches, fitness and nostalgia

https://www.customerexperiencedive.com/news/consumers-pay-more-favorite-brands-survey/745586/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5231.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5231.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9c78bd8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5231.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5231", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Short but to the point: trust is the only sustainable competitive advantage and moat.

https://writing.nikunjk.com/p/trust-is-the-only-moat

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5232.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5232.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..859be44 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5232.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5232", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The larger issue is that the federal government is broke and near bankruptcy, so it will be shifting responsibilities to states for everything. How are your state's finances doing?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/know-claims-trump-denie...", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5233.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5233.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3b6d154 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5233.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5233", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5233__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Looking at history, seems that there is always an asset bubble in play. What is the next play? Gold, AI, commodities, industrialization?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5234.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5234.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..92458d8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5234.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5234", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5234__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Federal debt interest expense as percent of total tax revenue. We're back to highs. Why high in the 1980s and early 1990's? High interest rates (peaking at 20%), tax cuts, more military spending. It fell in the 1990's as interest rates dropped, the tech boom powered the economy, taxes were raised and budget discipline.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5235.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5235.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7268bdc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5235.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5235", + "Date": "4/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The future is decentralizing, deplatforming and democratizing, where each of us that own assets like robots in our households, drones, EV vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities, computers with excess processor bandwidth, our garages...will be harnesses to do things and we get paid for it. Excess GPU capacity is one example.

I explain more how this powers our next economic boom in this working paper: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WMY24vrRMjzs6VLTfQmx6cFPZi9Nq5Ac9rL3fhvVsrc/edit?usp=sharing

https://www.primeintellect.ai/blog/intellect-2

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5236.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5236.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4797ddc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5236.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5236", + "Date": "4/29/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5236__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Performance of leading AI supercomputers has doubled every 9-months. AI will change everything (already is at the edges). For those that embrace the future, this is enormously positive and is one of four infrastructure components that I identify in my future growth engines Google doc. AI will help usher in the next economic supercycle. Read this document so you understand the magnitude of what is happening and how to embrace it.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/TheNextAmericanBoom ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5239.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5239.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5f4d03e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5239.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5239", + "Date": "5/6/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

AI can write achieving persuasion rates between three and six times higher than human baseline, and AI is barely scratching the surface for what it will do in the future. However, this might cancel itself out some in our digital world as humans adopt AI agents to be their filter to the world.

https://benn.substack.com/p/the-scorpion-box

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5242.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5242.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3dbb3e2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5242.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5242", + "Date": "5/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The need for income is becoming increasingly urgent as the cost of everything rises. As climate change intensifies and natural disasters become more frequent and severe, public sentiment will likely turn more aggressive. People will seek compensation—justified or not—wherever they can find it. While we all share responsibility for carbon-based energy consumption, that nuance will be ignored. Instead, the public will target those with deep pockets, framing themselves as innocent and others as culpable.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/scientists-tally-oil-majors-climate-damage-with-eye-to-legal-liability



", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5243.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5243.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0df7325 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5243.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5243", + "Date": "5/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Innovations like this are arriving with increasing speed and frequency. While we tend to project the future based on what we currently know, breakthroughs like this force us to dramatically revise those forecasts. We’re living in an era of exponential technological progress—unlike anything in human history. The world may feel overwhelmed by crisis and uncertainty, but it’s precisely these kinds of innovations that will shift the trajectory in ways we can’t yet imagine. The future is challenging, but for the U.S., we're on the verge on our next economic supercycle that could create tremendous prosperity.


https://scitechdaily.com/world-first-engineers-train-ai-at-lightspeed/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5245.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5245.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21bd574 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5245.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5245", + "Date": "5/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5245__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Retail inventories have steadily declined over the past few decades as companies optimized supply chains and freed up capital by adopting just-in-time inventory models. According to the chart, retailers now hold approximately 35 days of inventory—near historic lows seen during COVID. While I’m unsure of the exact cutoff date for the most recent data, it's likely from before the last 6 months, when some retailers may have started modest inventory builds in anticipation of new tariffs. That said, I don’t expect a long-term reversal of this trend. As reshoring progresses and production moves closer to end consumers, the risk of inventory disruptions decreases—reducing the need to hold excess inventory.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5247.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5247.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4c664ed --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5247.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5247", + "Date": "5/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5247__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Over the past 25-years, global debt has grown at 6% compounded annually, whereas global GDP has grown 3.7% compounded annually, and population has grown 1% compounded annually. Global debt has grown at a rate significantly higher than both global GDP and population growth. This divergence means an increasing reliance on debt relative to economic output and population size, which is unsustainable and a reckoning is coming. I think the U.S. will be OK and be able to resolve its debt because we have the opportunity to grow GDP and population significantly, but most of the rest of the world does not.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5248.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5248.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e1a8d4d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5248.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5248", + "Date": "5/12/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5248__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

While the 11-year sunspot cycle is widely known, fewer are aware of the longer-term Gleissberg Cycle—a slower, centennial-scale rhythm that modulates solar activity. Roughly every 80 to 100 years, it suppresses sunspot numbers, as seen in the subdued Solar Cycle 24 around 2012–2013. According to recent findings published in Space Weather, the minimum of this cycle may have just passed. If so, we could be entering a multi-decade period of intensifying solar cycles. Historically, peaks following Gleissberg minimums have coincided with powerful solar events—such as the 1989 geomagnetic storm that shut down power across Quebec and, further back, the Carrington Event of 1859, which disrupted telegraph systems. But this time, the stakes are much higher. Society today is vastly more electrified and digitized, with exponentially more satellites, connected infrastructure, and vulnerable electronics. Future solar superstorms could have far more widespread and disruptive consequences.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5250.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5250.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e386502 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5250.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5250", + "Date": "5/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5250__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

U.S. Tourism makes up around 10% of our GDP, of which 80% is from domestic tourism and the rest is international. For comparisons, finance, insurance and real estate is 20% of GDP, professional and business services is 14% of GDP, government is 12% of GDP, manufacturing is 10% of GDP. That is 66% of GDP. Maintaining the economic output of these sectors is pretty critical to GDP. What are the big cracks in these categories to watch? Slowing consumer spending and international arrivals that impacts tourism; slowing real estate sales due to interest rates and affordability issues and rising home insurance costs; AI taking professional service jobs; and government spending cuts due to debt issues; irrational tariff policy that cuts manufacturing. Any one of this taking a big hit really impacts U.S. GDP.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5251.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5251.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d26f8a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5251.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5251", + "Date": "5/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5251__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

While foreign ownership of U.S. treasuries as a percent of total has fallen relentlessly over the last 15+ years, U.S. government debt issuance has been so massive that the absolute amount owned by foreigners has increased. The rest of the debt absorption is from domestic buyers, especially the Federal Reserve buying U.S. government debt and financial institutions. This is a long-term trend where foreign ownership will be reduced as foreigners are forced to repatriate their own funds back to their countries to support their economies. Conversely, the U.S. will force all its capital back here as well to support our own economy.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5255.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5255.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e4f1b1f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5255.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5255", + "Date": "5/20/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

AI has been human-programmed, but the next evolution is where AI is improving and programming itself, which means progress will speed up even faster than it is now.

https://venturebeat.com/ai/meet-alphaevolve-the-google-ai-that-writes-its-own-code-and-just-saved-millions-in-computing-costs/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5259.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5259.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..308cd8d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5259.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5259", + "Date": "5/20/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The real unlock for AI agents isn’t just raw intelligence—it’s autonomy over time. The longer an agent can operate without human intervention, the more useful and transformational it becomes.

Imagine prompting an AI agent to evaluate my interests, skills, experience, knowledge, available capital, and assets—then asking it to generate three viable business ideas I could run. It doesn’t stop there. It builds the business plans, sets everything up, and begins executing—continuously and autonomously, with minimal oversight.

This chart is stunning. It tracks how long AI agents can autonomously perform coding tasks with an 80% success rate. What’s remarkable is the shift: we’ve moved from a clear exponential growth curve to a superexponential trajectory, where each improvement not only increases capability but accelerates the rate of improvement.

At this pace, we're not just looking at agents that help—we're staring down the path to agents that build, run, and scale on their own.


If the timing on this chart is even half right, the future of work—what we know, what we do, and how we do it—is about to change at a speed and scale humanity has never seen. Most people are not prepared for this. And for those unable to adapt, the consequences could be deeply disruptive, even devastating.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5260.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5260.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e7a24b1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5260.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5260", + "Date": "5/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5260__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a powerful visualization gong back to 1968. The back line shows expectations of new orders over the next 6 months. The red line is the monthly change in standard deviations/z-score. May 2025 showed the strongest positive increase ever of 4.3, compared to the most extreme negative drop of -4.1 in 2008. What does the May number mean? Not much, I think. It was a response to tariffs easing, against a backdrop where no orders were flowing at all, and the need to rush new ones in under the 90-day window. A temporary bump in the continuation of an anemic economy that is trending down. This is not the start of something new and sustained.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5261.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5261.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b608ef5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5261.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5261", + "Date": "5/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5261__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

And so it begins. What starts as gentle nudging will eventually become outright coercion. The U.S. government won’t just encourage companies to bring production home—it will mandate it. It will also push for the return of jobs and force the repatriation of corporate and individual wealth to sustain the economy through government debt purchases and domestic investment.

This won’t be unique to the U.S.—every major nation will follow a similar path as global pressures mount. You might not care what happens to Apple, but you’ll care when the government mandates that a portion of your savings be directed into government bonds. That day is coming. Nothing to stop it.

Extreme debt and extreme times will lead to extreme measures.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5262.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5262.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f357e00 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5262.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5262", + "Date": "5/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5262__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The U.S. defaulting on its debt? Not possible, you say? Oh, it is very possible. The most recent comparable case study and the largest sovereign debt default to date was Greece in 2012. It could not pay its debt, so defaulted. Debt holders had to forgive 53% of the value of their government bonds. GDP collapsed 25%, unemployment peaked at 28% and youth unemployment peaked at 60% (these numbers are comparable to the U.S. 1930's Depression). Next up is Japan, with far bigger debt problems than Greece. We will see how they handle their situation, but they are teetering as we speak. What they do will be instructive for us

The attached chart shows credit rating of U.S. government going back to 1920. The rating agencies finally started knocking it down starting post GFC, and Moody's finally followed suit last week. Microsoft now has a higher credit rating (and lower interest rate) than the U.S. government.\n

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5266.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5266.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b19042d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5266.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5266", + "Date": "5/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Are we finally seeing movement out of the FDA to speed drug discovery? Rolling out AI could reduce the drug approval process from months to just days. We desperately need to control healthcare costs - we spend the most of any developed country, and yet we are still the sickest nation. Yet, the future of healthcare could be very bright for the U.S., as AI could help slash costs associated with obesity, alzheimers, dementia and disability, realizing annual government cost reductions over a trillion. Longevity breakthroughs could delay retirement and increase workforce participation, adding another trillion to tax receipts annually. Healthcare cost reduction is another growth engine I identify in the coming decades that powers the U.S. through its next economic supercycle.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-announces-completion-first-ai-assisted-scientific-review-pilot-and-aggressive-agency-wide-ai

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5267.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5267.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e7d5ad0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5267.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5267", + "Date": "5/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5267__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart shows U.S. federal debt as a percentage of the economy dating back to 1790. Historically, we’ve seen sharp spikes during major wars. But since the early 2000s, debt has been surging again—despite the absence of a large-scale war.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5268.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5268.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c18a32 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5268.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5268", + "Date": "5/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5268__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart shows the average number of days worked from home per week in select countries. I believe this number will surge in the future, driven by several forces: companies looking to cut costs, AI displacing traditional jobs and pushing more people into freelance or gig work from home, and growing efforts to reduce carbon emissions—especially from transportation—as climate change intensifies. We successfully made this transition during COVID—but many employers have since reversed course, pushing for a return to the office and, in doing so, increasing carbon emissions once again. Foolish decision that will come back to hurt us.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5269.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5269.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5720076 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5269.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5269", + "Date": "5/28/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

At least one AI CEO is pounding the drums on this. 50% of all white-collar, knowledge-based jobs are going away. From my own experience, in the last year, I have replaced software coders, specialized cloud hosting, my concierge doctor, my lawyer, my electrician, researchers - all with AI. These are all high paying jobs and everyone will be doing what I am doing because AI saves money and is just better. What happens with intelligence becomes free and better than any human? I dive more into the jobs of the future in this working doc:

https://eddiesoehnel.com/SkillsJobsOfTheFutureWithAIDominating

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-col...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5271.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5271.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a12b582 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5271.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5271", + "Date": "6/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Here's a breakthrough in innovation that is ready to scale immediately—leveraging our existing vehicles and infrastructure to dramatically cut carbon emissions, boost energy independence, and democratize fuel production at the local level. Aircela is pioneering a novel approach to sustainable fuel production by creating gasoline directly from air, water, and renewable electricity. Their compact, refrigerator-sized machine integrates direct air capture (DAC) technology with on-site fuel synthesis, producing fossil-free, engine-ready gasoline compatible with existing vehicles and infrastructure. Imagine moving away from centralized gasoline production to decentralizing in your driveway for your neighborhood.\n\nhttps://aircela.com", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5272.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5272.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..da8fcce --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5272.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5272", + "Date": "6/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5272__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

We will reindustrialize because we have no choice, but thus far, the bottleneck is labor availability. That will change as AI wipes out 50% of knowledge-based workers in the coming decade, which will free up labor to move into manufacturing. Robotics and automation is also coming on fast. The manufacturing labor of the future will be far different from the past: (1) we will leverage AI and quantum computing driven material science to product new materials, (2) robotics and automation to create new ways to manufacture, (3) all of it much more decentralized and democratized where freelancers, small businesses and households can own the manufacturing and manage their robots to do it. This mirrors what happened with: (1)Personal computing (from IBM to your home); (2) Internet publishing (from Time Warner to Substack); (3) Media production (from NBC to YouTube). Small-scale success stories have never been possible in manufacturing. It always required big plants, big crews, big bucks and centralization. Until now. With AI and automation/robotics, the same can happen in physical production and logistics, where small teams or individuals can create manufacturing anywhere, even in their garages. I cover all this in my working document on future growth engines for the U.S.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/TheNextAmericanBoom", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5274.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5274.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0e7643 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5274.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5274", + "Date": "6/8/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5274__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

More staggering statistics on the shrinking middle-class. My futurist work over the last year has really brought home how important it is to have a thriving middle-class. It is why we have so much polarization and conflict. It is why we have a stagnant economy that is shrinking when inflation is factored in. When wealth is concentrated at the top, a smaller portion of it gets spent in the real economy. Wealthy individuals have a lower marginal propensity to consume (they save or invest more of each additional dollar). But when wealth is in the hands of millions of small business owners, freelancers, or households, they spend more — on goods, services, housing, healthcare, education, and tools to grow their businesses. That stimulates demand across sectors, creating a multiplier effect that reverberates through the economy. When more people feel they have a real stake in the economy — and not just as consumers or gig workers, but as owners: (1) You get greater civic engagement; (2) Lower political extremism; (3) Higher trust in institutions; (4) Less depression, anxiety, drug use and suicides as the population is more hopeful for and engaged with its future; (5) A healthier, more cohesive society. American has an incredible opportunity to reverse this trend as our next growth engine comes online. I cover this in my working paper on Future Growth Engine For The U.S.

https://eddiesoehnel.com/TheNextAmericanBoom", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5275.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5275.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..898bcc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5275.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5275", + "Date": "6/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5275__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "A long-term chart showing IT equipment investment as a percentage contribution to GDP, with the recent surge driven by data center construction. Given the ongoing AI boom—and the coming wave of robotics and automation—this figure is likely to remain elevated in the years ahead.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5276.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5276.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..78ea423 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5276.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5276", + "Date": "6/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5276__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Rare-earth elements (the 17 “REEs”) aren’t scarce in the Earth’s crust; the difficulty is that they rarely occur in ore bodies rich enough to mine economically, and separating them requires chemical processes that are energy-intensive and generate toxic and sometimes radioactive waste. The United States’ largest deposit is the Mountain Pass mine, just inside California near the Nevada border, which currently supplies roughly 15 % of global REE ore and is being rebuilt to handle domestic separation as well. Starting in the 1990s, the U.S. let most of its refining capacity shut down while China—backed by state subsidies and looser environmental rules—expanded to roughly 60 % of global mining and nearly 90 % of downstream magnet production. Cheap Chinese supply slashed the cost of everything from smartphone speakers to EV motors; without it, many modern electronics would likely have reached the market later and at much higher prices. Could the U.S. ramp up full-cycle production today? Yes—Mountain Pass is already operating and several new separation projects are slated for the next two years—but doing so under current environmental and labor standards would make REEs markedly more expensive in the near term. The longer-run hope is that AI-driven process control, robotics, and economies of scale will push costs back down, yet bridging that initial cost gap is one of the toughest hurdles in any U.S. re-industrialization plan.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5279.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5279.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2d36237 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5279.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5279", + "Date": "6/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5279__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The share of first-time home buyers has dropped from 50% in 2010 to just 24% today. As housing becomes increasingly unaffordable—driven by limited supply and the long-term effects of flawed monetary policies—many young people are unable to purchase homes, start families, or invest in their communities. This growing sense of exclusion has led some to disengage from both work and education, fueling a loss of hope about the future. That disconnection is contributing to the rise in political extremism and a range of broader social challenges. We must reverse this trend—and I believe we will—as new technologies, innovations, and business models begin to reach every corner of society, revitalizing the economy in more inclusive and dynamic ways. However, the next decade of transition will be turbulent as we navigate these deep structural shifts.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5280.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5280.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12609a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5280.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5280", + "Date": "6/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5280__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "The delinquency map is significant in the short run—it shows a rapid return to pre-pause distress (before COVID) and sizeable regional pockets above 30 %—but it is not yet worse than the peaks we saw after the Great Recession (2012-2013).", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5282.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5282.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07e5c1e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5282.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5282", + "Date": "6/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5282__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Government debt is crowding out other investment vehicles, leaving less capital available for productive investment in the broader economy. Deficit spending, in macroeconomic terms, represents negative savings—and the U.S. government's negative savings have now grown large enough to offset private savings and investment. This imbalance threatens future economic growth. It will become increasingly difficult to fund the reindustrialization efforts we urgently need—efforts that will be critical to driving job creation as AI disrupts much of today’s knowledge-based work. So where will the investment capital come from? I believe we’ll see a wave of creative, unprecedented, and in some cases, unwanted solutions emerge.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5283.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5283.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1586ae9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5283.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5283", + "Date": "6/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5283__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The federal debt/deficit is low on the consumer's list of concerns—only 3% of respondents in the May 2025 Gallup poll ranked it as their top issue. But its effects are insidious and largely invisible until, now, when they are finally showing up in very real ways. (1) Massive government borrowing diverts investment dollars away from private enterprise, weakening long-term economic growth. This crowding-out effect limits funding for business expansion, innovation, and infrastructure—key drivers of job creation and rising wages. (2) Rising debt levels pressure the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, which trickles down to the consumer as more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit card interest. (3) It increases the risk of future inflation as fiscal discipline erodes, slowly eating into purchasing power. (4) As more taxpayer money goes toward interest payments instead of essential services, we see reduced government capacity for healthcare, education, and safety net programs—hurting the very people least prepared to absorb the impact. After decades of few visible consequences, the bill is finally coming due.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5285.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5285.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1a543c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5285.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5285", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5285__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The U.S. spends more on healthcare per person than any other developed nation, yet we remain among the least healthy and face significant barriers to timely care—especially when it comes to same-day or next-day appointments. This problem is largely structural: (1) There’s a shortage of primary care doctors, as many medical professionals opt for higher-paying specialties. (2) Our fee-for-service model prioritizes revenue-generating procedures over quick, accessible care. (3) The healthcare system is highly fragmented, leading to inefficiencies and coordination issues. (4) Insurance complexity and administrative burdens create further delays. (5)Rural areas face chronic provider shortages. (6) Widespread burnout among healthcare workers limits capacity even further. AI is already stepping in to fill some of these gaps, as individuals begin using it in place of traditional providers to address their health needs.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5286.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5286.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..703d54e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5286.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5286", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Cellular agriculture can't arrive soon enough, as many of the foods we enjoy are increasingly threatened by climate change and geopolitical instability in key growing regions. But when reshored, the future of these foods looks exceptionally promising.\n\n

https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/california-cultured-cell-based-cocoa-chocolate-scale-up
\n

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5287.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5287.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8354ed8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5287.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5287", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5287__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "How does this compare to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? At that time, auto loan delinquency rates peaked around 4.5%. According to Y-Chart data for Q1 2025, rates have now reached 4.99%—surpassing the peak levels seen during the GFC.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5288.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5288.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..da562e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5288.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5288", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5288__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This long-term chart of consumer loan default rates (1987–2024) is revealing. Defaults remained elevated through the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, with brief spikes down, touching normal levels in the mid-1990s and around 2006. For most of the last decade, however, delinquency rates stayed well below that elevated threshold. Now, we're seeing a notable rise again—back into historically elevated territory—though still well below the peaks seen during prior downturns.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5289.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5289.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..faef936 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5289.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5289", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The level of innovation happening right now just blows my mind. I see stuff like this almost daily. A photonic quantum computer recently completed a complex benchmarking task in under a minute—something classical supercomputers would need thousands to millions of years to simulate. Even more impressively, it ran at room temperature. While the problem wasn’t practically useful, it marks a big step in proving quantum advantage using light. The age of photonic quantum computing is just beginning. Photonic systems differ from traditional superconducting qubit systems, which require bulky cryogenics to operate. The community is now expecting commercial deployments around 2030, and photonics isn’t far behind—potentially leapfrogging established platforms due to its scalability and temperature resilience.\nWhile we’re rightly awed by the pace of AI breakthroughs, quantum will be orders of magnitude more transformative. It has the potential to reshape everything—and in the world of consumer products, it will revolutionize material science in ways we can’t yet begin to imagine. I cover some of that in my working document on AI, DFT and Quantum-Based Material and Ingredient Design:

https://eddiesoehnel.com/AIMaterialDiscovery


https://spectrum.ieee.org/photonic-quantum-computing

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5291.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5291.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a6534bd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5291.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5291", + "Date": "6/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5291__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

It’s honestly wild how much money the federal government pours into countless programs and initiatives—especially into what I think of as the major industrial complexes of the U.S.: defense, intelligence, pharma, food, ag, banks, and more. A huge chunk of it ends up being a transfer of wealth from taxpayers, and at this point, just adds to our national debt. Here’s one small example that props up financial institution profits. The Fed uses it as a monetary policy tool—paying interest to banks on the reserves they hold. I looked into it, and while it is a tool for managing rates, there are apparently other ways to accomplish the same thing. This fact sheet was put together by a senator and is making the rounds in D.C., urging the repeal of those interest payments to banks. Honestly, it sounds like a smart move—but we’ll see if it actually passes or if the bank lobby kills it. Side note: I find it kind of hilarious that they’re using printed fact sheets like this in 2025. Don’t we have email and internal message boards for this stuff?

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5295.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5295.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..873924b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5295.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5295", + "Date": "6/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5295__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Amazing chart on residential costs. The cost of buying a house is a factor of real estate values, interest rates, and much more recently, insurance. It has gone parabolic in the last few years, which is very bad sign because any chart that shows parabolic rises like this means it is unsustainable and prone to crashing back down. What is fascinating is going back and seeing similar parabolic rises, followed by periods of deflation that can last decades, before the next parabolic blow-off comes once again. Are we setting up for another decade or two deflation in real estate values? It sure looks that way to me.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5296.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5296.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5619127 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5296.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5296", + "Date": "6/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5296__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

US household holdings of equities as % of total financial assets. When viewed over many decades, it swings widely based on market valuations. By many measures and valuation ratios, we are at a historical peak now. Does not mean it can't go higher, just means that at some point, we are looking at a multi-year or even decades of decline.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5297.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5297.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..405ee9c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5297.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5297", + "Date": "6/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5297__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

As shown in this chart, the price of solar panels has dropped from over $1.20/watt in 2011 to under $0.20/watt in 2024 — an 85%+ decline. This demonstrates Swanson’s Law, which states: For every doubling of cumulative solar production, prices fall by about 20%. Swanson’s Law is a specific case of Wright’s Law, the broader principle that costs fall as experience and scale increase. These learning-curve dynamics have defined the rise of solar and they show up across many other segments, like batteries, EVs, chips. As we move more and more into AI and robotics/automation, we will see the same.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5299.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5299.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53bcddb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5299.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5299", + "Date": "6/20/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5299__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart shows two consecutive months of sharply elevated estimates in the CPI — a potential red flag or just an anomaly? What you’re seeing is the percentage of prices the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is estimating rather than directly surveying. In May, that figure jumped to over 30% — meaning nearly a third of the CPI data is now based on imputation rather than real-world price collection. Without accurate, observed data, our ability to measure inflation — and make sound policy or investment decisions — is significantly compromised. Is this a temporary disruption or a sign of deeper systemic issues?

When this much CPI data is estimated instead of observed, the risk of misstating inflation grows. If prices are rising faster in the real world than the BLS’s models assume (like now), we could be underreporting true inflation. The reverse is also possible in a disinflationary environment. Either way, with 30% of prices now imputed, the margin for error — and confusion — is much larger.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5302.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5302.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0a3f3ce --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5302.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5302", + "Date": "6/20/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5302__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "AI’s accelerating capabilities continue to astonish, especially when compared to historical efficiency gains in transformative technologies like electric power and computer memory. As shown in the chart, the cost per output for AI—measured here as a 75-word ChatGPT response—has dropped astonishingly faster than those earlier technologies did in their early years. And yet, we are still at the very beginning of AI’s journey. What concerns me most is the disparity this rapid evolution may create. It’s as if the technology is stretching out a rubber band: at the leading edge are early adopters and technologists achieving extraordinary gains, while the rest of the population is scattered further back along the band—with a significant portion so far behind they may never catch up. This imbalance threatens to concentrate the benefits of the coming economic supercycle in the hands of a few. If AI’s development isn’t democratized—ensuring broad participation and access to its gains—we risk deepening existing wealth inequality to a point where it undercuts the very prosperity AI promises to deliver. I lay out ways we can prevent this in my working document on build the next American growth engine: https://eddiesoehnel.com/HowToMaximizeTheNextAmericanEconomicSupercycle", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5309.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5309.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..377c809 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5309.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5309", + "Date": "6/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This article helped close the loop on a concept I’ve been noodling on for a while: lifestyle subsidies.\n

American consumers have been blessed over the past few decades—especially since the rise of the internet—with lifestyle subsidies. How so?

\n
    \n
  1. \nFirst wave (2000s tech boom): We got incredible free tools—Google Search, Gmail, social media platforms, YouTube, and more. These were high-quality services, given to us at no cost.\n
    2. \n
  2. \nSecond wave (DTC era): Startups flooded the market with free shipping, generous return policies, and great customer service—all subsidized by VC money fueling unsustainable growth.\n
    3. \n
  3. \nThird and perhaps most significant: The subsidization of the global tech boom by China. Massive state and private capital poured into manufacturing infrastructure that gave us powerful, affordable devices. The tech in your pocket wouldn’t be nearly as good—or cheap—without this.\n
    4. \n
\n

Each of these waves created immense consumer benefit, but they’re largely behind us now.

\n

So what’s the new wave? AI.
\nWe’re now living through the next great lifestyle subsidy: high-quality, near-free access to astonishing intelligence tools via large language models. These tools are being bankrolled by billions in investor capital, all in a race to capture our attention and build a moat.

\n

But, like the previous waves, this won’t last.

\n

Eventually, these tools will either become paid services—or worse, they’ll be monetized via advertising, making them less objective, more manipulative, and aligned with ad dollars instead of users. Just like search and social before them.


https://digitalseams.com/blog/the-ai-lifestyle-sub...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5310.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5310.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4a89d67 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5310.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5310", + "Date": "7/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "c6107AdamCramer", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a win—but a pyrrhic one, at best. The freight train is still coming. It’s just math. Our national debt is staggering, and when it comes to budget priorities, public lands rank nearly, if not, last. As the economy deteriorates this decade, with job incomes tightening and resource scarcity biting harder, Americans will focus on immediate personal needs. In that context, public lands—generating $1 billion in annual revenue within a $30 trillion economy—barely register. If you care about protecting these lands—whether for recreation or because your business depends on them—it’s time to stop relying on government support or hopes of killing public land sales in the next bill. Start exploring how the private sector, emerging technologies, and new business models can step in and carry the load. Can we avoid this looming collapse? Maybe. Our next economic boom could arrive just in time to spark the next supercycle. But that is looking increasingly unlikely. Better to prepare for the worst and act now, while we still have the option.

https://www.outdooralliance.org/blog/2025/6/28/public-land-selloff-provisions-removed-from-senate-budget-reconciliation-bill

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5311.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5311.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d3f3afe --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5311.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5311", + "Date": "7/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Research Sources" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5311__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

What does the 100-year history of gold prices reveal? Every previous parabolic rise has coincided with periods of fiscal and monetary upheaval. Through this lens, it's clear we’re heading toward a crisis that will profoundly reshape wealth, money, and the global economy—one few are truly prepared for. I explore how this crisis may unfold, what to expect, and how we can ready ourselves, our families, and our businesses. See my Google doc here:

https://eddiesoehnel.com/ReckoningAndResurgenceSummary ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5313.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5313.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..be1510a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5313.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5313", + "Date": "7/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Robotics innovation is moving at light speed. There's a bunch of well-funded startups with humanoid robots already in factories and the road is being laid for consumer applications that should start to hit in 2027. We're seeing more and more open sourced efforts and here, we see advances in robotics that may not need a connection to the cloud, allowing operation with much greater autonomy. This reduces costs and makes robots operate much faster (no latency or waiting for cloud servers to process actions).

https://arstechnica.com/google/2025/06/google-releases-first-cloud-free-ai-robotics-model

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5314.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5314.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2ff9f64 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5314.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5314", + "Date": "7/1/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5314__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "China no longer holds a dominant share of U.S. debt. Over time, it has been steadily reducing its exposure, shifting into gold and other assets as U.S. debt becomes increasingly viewed as both a financial and geopolitical liability. If there was ever a notion that the U.S. could selectively devalue Chinese-held Treasuries as a strategic maneuver, that option is largely off the table now.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5325.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5325.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9d55364 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5325.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5325", + "Date": "7/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

It is really important that everyone understand the strategic context of stablecoins. Bitcoin is just noise - ignore it. But stablecoins have enormous ramifications for the future of...well, everything. The Genius Act implementing federal legislation on stablecoins is one step away from passage. Look under the surface, and there is huge activity in the private sector to leverage this act, should it pass (which looks that way). I explain stablecoins with respect to what I call \"The Generational Reset\" in the google doc link below. The last generational reset was the 1930 Depression, wiping out immense incumbent wealth. The same looks like it will happen again. Don't get caught on the wrong side of this shift. I explain more in my working doc here:

https://eddiesoehnel.com/ReckoningAndResurgenceSummary


https://x.com/100y_eth/status/1942181557042896939?...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5326.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5326.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..47d5125 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5326.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5326", + "Date": "7/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is a short article with some inside perspectives on the future. Most of us grasp the severity of our problems, as do our elected leaders, but none of us wants to compromise or work together, and our elected leaders reflect that view. We are repeating history like we have done so many times before. Unfortunately, how this ends is that our challenges will get far worse than they should until shock events bring us to an existential crisis, which forces us to work together. That is why I am pessimistic on the near-term future (10 years), but incredibly optimistic about the long-term future for our country, because time and again, the U.S. has shown when its back is finally against the wall, it is able to act in ways where no challenge prevails.

https://lnkd.in/gA5pwzGB

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5327.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5327.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6efa351 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5327.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5327", + "Date": "7/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

For governments seeking full visibility into everything their citizens do, the future looks incredibly promising. Apps and privacy protocols like this latest one From Jack Dorsey matter a lot less, because the real key to total visibility—and ultimately, control—lies in transactions. Our current system of monetary exchange is being replaced by blockchain networks that support stablecoin transactions. With blockchain, every transaction is digitally recorded and permanently immutable. Nothing can be erased or hidden. Now add the accelerating power of AI—soon to be supercharged by quantum computing—and the result is a deeply surveilled society that doesn’t just observe. It understands. It predicts. It preempts. There will be no opting out. Even disconnecting will be monitored, interpreted, and flagged—categorized as a psychological anomaly. In the near future, “off-grid” won’t imply freedom. It will suggest suspicion. I explore this shift toward full transactional visibility—spanning not only our financial lives but nearly every aspect of daily activity—and the rise of the surveilled state, which in many ways is already here, in my paper here: https://eddiesoehnel.com/ReckoningAndResurgenceSummary Is this scenario still decades away? I don’t think so. We could cross this threshold within 10 years, especially if financial shock events accelerate the transition toward digital, centralized, and fully controlled systems.

https://www.engadget.com/apps/jack-dorsey-just-released-a-bluetooth-messaging-app-that-doesnt-need-the-internet-191023870.html



", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5329.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5329.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..066b488 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5329.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5329", + "Date": "7/9/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Many transformative technologies follow an S-curve: slow buildup, then a sudden “bang” moment when everything changes and adoption skyrockets. Think: the PC boom in 1984 with the release of the Macintosh, the Internet boom in 1995 when Netscape IPO'd, the smartphone boom in 2007 with the iPhone, cloud/SAAS boom in 2012, and AI most recently in November 2022.

Carlota Perez, in Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, outlined how every major tech revolution follows a cycle—installation, collapse, and deployment—punctuated by explosive breakthroughs that realign entire economies. So what’s the next “bang” moment? I believe one could come when AI overcomes its persistent memory limitations. When models can persistently remember and learn from every interaction with each individual, tailoring responses over time like a true assistant, we’ll see a step-change in usefulness. Is that one or two years away? Hard to say—but we’re close. And just beyond that? The next bang comes from humanoid robotics.


https://paritoshmohan.substack.com/p/the-chatgpt-moment-in-robotics-and?utm_source=tldrai

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5330.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5330.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..31aa156 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5330.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5330", + "Date": "7/10/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

That article is a masterclass in disruption. The carriage-to-car transition is a rich metaphor for what’s happening today—but it’s far from unique. History is full of examples where incumbents were disintermediated by new technologies and nimble upstarts: Blockbuster → Netflix, Kodak → Digital photography, Nokia/BlackBerry → Apple & Android, Yahoo → Google, Intel → NVIDIA, Department stores → Amazon, Bookstores → eBooks & eCommerce, Taxis → Uber & Lyft. I could go on and on. The lesson? If you’re holding onto legacy skills and institutional knowledge that served you well over the past decade—and you’re part of a legacy brand more than a few years old—you may be the walking dead and not know it. We’re living in a precarious moment. AI, political and geopolitical realignment, and climate pressures are supercharging disruptive technologies and business models—making traditional expertise and structures vulnerable to sudden collapse. The upside? We have all this history to learn from. The question is: will we? Unfortunately, most won’t. Human nature being what it is, we tend to ignore the past and repeat its mistakes—forgetting that none of this is new. It’s all happened before. As a simple exercise, I had AI take my Playbook Of The Future tool for consumer brands, and create 2 columns: if you know and do the left, you are ripe for disruption; if you know, do or at least working on the right, you are future-proofing yourself and will the disruptor. Which column do you land? See this Google sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qW_5FaZzR9rmJ3yamRPHPHHRbPD0RkS2uAx9lpgZ_bA/edit?usp=sharing

https://steveblank.com/2025/07/08/blind-to-disruption-the-ceos-who-missed-the-future

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5331.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5331.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e7ba673 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5331.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5331", + "Date": "7/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Because of AI, this lab is now completing experiments in a month that would have take hundreds of thousands of year to accomplish using traditional methods. Their focus is longevity and age reversal, with clinical trials starting next year, and the goal of age reversal pills by 2035 that all of us can use.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5336.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5336.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..00c3c8d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5336.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5336", + "Date": "7/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5336__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Recessions are traditionally seen as a way to flush out excesses that accumulate during periods of economic expansion. But this chart tells a different story. During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, rather than allowing private sector debt—especially within households and financial institutions—to unwind fully, much of it was effectively transferred onto the public balance sheet. Household and financial sector liabilities fell after 2008, but this was mirrored by a sharp and sustained rise in federal debt as a percentage of GDP. Instead of true deleveraging, we witnessed a liability handoff—from private to public—delaying the day of reckoning and perpetuating systemic imbalances.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5338.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5338.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..805e2df --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5338.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5338", + "Date": "7/16/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5338__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I saw post how Americans are drowning in credit card debt. The chart was 2012 forward, which when considering this time frame, then yes, levels are elevated. But I sourced data going back further (attached) and we are nowhere near levels seen in the GFC or prior recession.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5340.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5340.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73ab450 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5340.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5340", + "Date": "7/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

emember Bretton Woods in 1948 that set the structure and rules for a globalized free trade structure led by the U.S.? Well, I think the Genius Act, whose passage is imminent, will go down as the Bretton Woods of our new monetary era. This act solidifies stablecoins, valued in U.S. dollars and backed by U.S. treasuries, as a new monetary layer that will supplant currencies worldwide, massively educing friction and cost to commerce and giving people, many in failing currencies and oppressive governments, access to a potentially more stable system. This really is genius for the U.S. because it is a soft-power trojan horse that monetarily links the world and reinforces U.S. dollar supremacy. The next economic supercycle for the U.S. that powers us through the rest of this century just began. We'll still go through a lot of pain in the coming decade as we transition to this new era and leave the old, with its legacy systems, companies, expertise and wealth, but the transition has officially started. Buckle up.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/07/17/genius-act-for-stablecoins-passes-house-on-way-to-be-first-major-u-s-crypto-law

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5343.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5343.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c1a4c28 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5343.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5343", + "Date": "7/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

“I think there’s a plausible argument [ ] that robotics is going to be the biggest industry in the history of the planet.\" Marc Andreessen, July 2025

The potential of robotics is immense, with progress in both AI-driven software and hardware advancing at a remarkable pace. I believe we’ll see a breakthrough moment—where humanoid robots hit the mass market—sometime between 2028 and 2032. Massive capital and talent are pouring into the sector, fueling open-source initiatives that will help reduce costs and accelerate adoption. Achieving dexterity in humanoid robots is crucial and will revolutionize industries like apparel. The link below features an open-source, low-cost project that enables anyone to build four-fingered robotic hands.

https://github.com/pollen-robotics/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5345.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5345.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..000c94e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5345.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5345", + "Date": "7/22/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5345__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "China built its economy on exports. Without the ability to export, it faces serious trouble because it lacks a strong, consumer-driven market like the U.S. to absorb its production. With U.S. tariffs in place, China is dumping goods into other markets any way it can—but those markets are catching on and raising their own trade barriers. Creating a robust consumer economy isn’t something China can do overnight; it takes decades and favorable demographics, which China doesn’t have. It’s hard to see how deglobalization plays out well for China.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5349.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5349.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2434db2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5349.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5349", + "Date": "7/23/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

What does the 2050s look like? Energy costs near zero. Mining dramatically reduced because fusion byproducts include metals, collapsing manufacturing costs. That frees up massive capital for everything else—cleaning up our environment, space. Who wins? The U.S. (and maybe a few advanced nations). We own these breakthrough technologies, while others face demographic collapse. Who loses? Countries built on resource extraction. Their leverage disappears. The upside: This shift could finally reverse environmental damage at scale. The challenge: To reach that future, we still need heavy resource extraction now—meaning more carbon and more short-term environmental strain. The road to abundance starts with scarcity-driven trade-offs.

https://www.marathonfusion.com/


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5351.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5351.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b871d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5351.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5351", + "Date": "7/24/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I think this may be correct, at least for the next few decades. Does not mean we will have recessions, but they might not be deep. And some sectors will be booming while others are in recession or even depression, like we have seen with commercial real estate that last few years. I see the current data center/AI boom continuing, but maybe correcting inside this decade because expectations are too high at present,. Then we have the robotics boom taking over, followed by tokenization, which puts us well into the 2030's. Then longevity and health innovations kick in for another boom, followed by fusion energy. This does not mean we won't go through difficulties - we absolutely will as our world resets to a new era - and many legacy brands, skillsets and norms will be crushed. But pain will be localized to certain sectors, not widespread.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-economy-has-exited-the-boom-and-bust-cycle-blackrock-says-8d8dc389?utm_source=chatgpt.com

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5353.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5353.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4d64c38 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5353.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5353", + "Date": "7/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5353__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is quite the chart. The U.S housing market prices are at the highest levels ever. The run up over the last 10 years is extraordinary. We can thank 25 years of poor U.S. fiscal and monetary policy for this disaster that is shutting out younger generations from forming families, building communities and building wealth. This bubble is going to deflate at some point.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5354.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5354.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..173c064 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5354.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5354", + "Date": "7/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5354__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

For comparison, relative to GDP, housing equity was ~3.3× GDP in 2006 and remains similar or higher today, with $34 T versus ~$13 T. Relative to wealth, its share in household net worth was about 20% in 2006 and is now roughly 50%. Equity as a % of GDP was 91% in 2006 and 115% today. The long-run average is 70%. Quite a bubble we are in, which could go far higher for far longer than anyone thinks possible. Based on probable forthcoming growth engines for the U.S. and continued poor monetary and fiscal policy, I could see this continuing into the 2030's and wealth inequality blowing out more.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5355.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5355.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..200b109 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5355.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5355", + "Date": "7/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5355__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Housing buying conditions graphed since 1960. We are at significant lows right now. This does not mean housing prices will come down soon. In fact, I see plausible scenarios where prices will continue to go parabolic through the rest of this decade and well into the next.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5358.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5358.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21191d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5358.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5358", + "Date": "7/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5358__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Here we have the 40-year price of copper. It began moving up in earnest in early 2000's with the build out of the Internet, including data centers to household devices and everything in between. As we have continued to electrify, costs ae trending up. At present, with the mad rush to build more data centers along with energy production and distribution to power AI, and soon, robotics, the demand for copper will skyrocket, while production is not keeping up. Unless we experience profound recessions, which will cut demand to build out our electrified future, its hard to see this going anywhere but up.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5359.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5359.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c4c2fda --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5359.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5359", + "Date": "7/27/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is just the beginning and it is going to get weird as AI influences each one of us to such a degree that we will not even know it. In this link, Delta is beginning to use AI along with data it has on you to maximize price you pay. But this is just the top of the iceberg. As we all transition to using AI as our main UX to the world (I call it AI-UX), the AI systems will present us products and services to buy, with price maximized in real-time for each of us, while taking a cut of the revenues. This is affiliate advertising maximized to the ultimate degree. I talk about AI-UX in my Future Of Apparel working doc as well as cover this in the surveilled state section of my Reckoning And Resurgence Summary working document.

https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1948625408716312686?t=GGB1BVFsjkmXp5hduVa7UQ&s=03", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5360.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5360.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f40f47 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5360.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5360", + "Date": "7/28/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

I saw an interview with Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind recently. He said in context of AI: “10x the impact of industrial revolution, 10x faster. Instead of 100 years, it takes 10.\" Takeaway: Prepare for 10x Speed, 10x Impact Change. Case in point: the link below demonstrates a discovery taking a few weeks versus typical 18-months, or 10x faster. Change and innovation will happen 10x faster now. Consider leading incumbents in any market today - next year they could be out of business. Anyone operating in a legacy company, with legacy skills, using legacy processes and structures, could be disrupted overnight. This is not Blockbuster>>>Netflix, or Intel>>>Nvidia...both these examples saw the incumbent get disrupted over a 10-year period. But considering Demis' proclamation of 10x speed, disruptions will happen in a year. The only way to prevent this is for any person or company operating as incumbents to quickly and massively reposition for this future. Disruption is already occurring around the edges across industries, but futurists I follow say 2027 is when it gets real, which means legacy needs to be positioned by then.


https://www.the-scientist.com/an-ai-generated-protein-helps-t-cells-kill-cancer-73205


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5361.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5361.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c2cdd46 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5361.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5361", + "Date": "8/2/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5361__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Here is a long-term chart showing U.S. margin debt. Right now, risk appetite is through the roof in financial markets. Margin investing - borrowing money from a brokerage to buy securities so that gains get amplified, but also losses get amplified - has surged, growing 3x-6x faster than both income and net worth. Surging margin debt can signal market tops because leverages builds fragility. It pushes prices farther than fundamentals can support, creating a house-of-cards effect. It does not guarantee a crash, but raises the probability.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5362.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5362.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c5b6829 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5362.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5362", + "Date": "8/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5362__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Wealth inequality isn’t just an American problem—it’s a global crisis. From 1980 to 2023, the richest 1% captured over half of global growth, and the top 5% took nearly 70%. The U.S. is poised for its next economic supercycle, but unless we democratize the gains, it won’t matter. History makes this clear: failure to correct deep imbalances leads to political unrest, social breakdown, and often, civil war. We must act now. I’ve laid out a series of high-impact levers that any of us can pull to help rebalance the system. They’re in my working document on building the next American growth engine.https://docs.google.com/document/d/12jKSUYFg0DsqGtLeaSvJV31Zh0DfobM0Gfz4syGaGMM/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5363.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5363.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..71e7751 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5363.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5363", + "Date": "8/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5363__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is a nice long-term chart and currently shows the 100 largest corporate pension funds are fully funded. Good news and we'll take it, but valuations in markets are at high levels. When we experience pullbacks or extended drawdowns, which we need to expect, this chart will go negative.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5366.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5366.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ad94d39 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5366.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5366", + "Date": "8/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5366__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Wow. Capital expenditures from Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta - all buildout for datacenters to power AI. Is this a bubble? Probably not, especially when you layer on the upcoming boom in robotics. However, this could be a bubble in so far as we are not able to also build out the energy needed to power this infrastructure. That is increasingly the biggest risk.

Via

Chris Mims", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5367.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5367.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d33e754 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5367.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5367", + "Date": "8/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5367__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is estimated number of U.S. homebuyers and sellers, from a nice chart with a good chunk of historical data for context. However, this data begins in 2013. It would be interesting to find data going back to 2007 to cover the GFC, but I was not able to surface anything readily available.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5369.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5369.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..279d0b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5369.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5369", + "Date": "8/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5369__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "Great snapshot of a key valuation indicator in public equites going back to the 1800's. You can see tops take decades to return again, so when you purchase is an enormous factor in building wealth. We are clearly at the second highest ever, which does not mean things will reverse. I can easily make the case that we will see momentum in equity valuations continuing higher for not just years, but maybe decades (with short pullbacks over a year or two). But I can also make the case for the reverse. Everyone needs to decide on their own risk tolerance.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5370.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5370.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..be5f712 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5370.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5370", + "Date": "8/11/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5370__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "I've seen other studies and data like this to confirm a broad societal trend with young men not in education, employment or training (NEET). Many are simply disengaging completely, which is a leading indicator of social instability (crime, political polarization, lower lifetime earnings, less family formation, civic participation).", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5374.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5374.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..083defb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5374.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5374", + "Date": "8/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

This is remarkable. Pulling carbon out of the atmosphere to create food, products, even auto fuel, can't come fast enough.

https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/butter-carbon-bill-gates-batavia-illinois/?utm_source=tldrnewsletter

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5376.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5376.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e449b2b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5376.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5376", + "Date": "8/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5376__Image_URL.webp", + "Summary": "Consumer spending is imbalanced, portending significant slowdown ahead, but the long-term story for our next economic supercycle and prosperity remains intact. At present, we see spending concentrated in financial services and insurance (homeowners insurance has seen massive increases), healthcare (driven by an aging population), and housing and utilities (real estate values are through the roof, coupled with higher interest rates, while utility rate increases are just getting started). This takes away spending available in other categories, especially discretionary, which across the board is depressed. What shocked me was how healthcare spending has rocketed up massively over the last few decades, fueled significantly by Medicare and Medicaid, which now account for 50% of all healthcare spending. Unfortunately, healthcare spending will continue climbing, climate change and environmental disasters will continue to skyrocket insurance costs (home, rental, auto), and our lack of electricity generation capacity means huge rate increases ahead. As government spending implodes, that burden shifts to consumers. But innovation is forthcoming to reverse these trends—we just have to embrace it and strive towards this tremendous future, not stay anchored in the past. via https://lnkd.in/gBaVGgE9

via https://adamjosephson.substack.com/

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5381.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5381.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d171d27 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5381.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5381", + "Date": "8/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5381__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This post captivated me with its glimpse of education's transformation happening right now—Alpha's students learning 2.6X faster through AI, finishing K-12 academics before age 10 with just two hours daily and no homework, then spending the rest of their day practicing human skills, pursuing passions, and building businesses. This perfectly embodies the quote I return to often: \"Don't ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive, and go do it.\" AI is letting these kids not just learn, but come alive, and I wish I had this opportunity as a teenager. This revolutionary approach could be available to every young person across the U.S. at this very moment, yet we remain anchored to failing legacy institutions, processes, and thinking patterns. As government spending implodes and traditional education systems crumble, we have an unprecedented opportunity to re-engineer learning using new technologies and business models—but instead, the vast majority of us cling to the past, hoping to weather the next crisis before returning to \"normal,\" with little intentional action to align toward our incredible future. We must use AI to educate and inspire our young people now, preparing them for the skills and opportunities of tomorrow's economy, not yesterday's.

https://rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/why-im-obsessed-with-ai-schooling

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5383.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5383.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8205011 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5383.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5383", + "Date": "8/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Our energy production and distribution systems are severely behind where they need to be. While normal energy output growth is just 1% per year (1.5% in boom times), we currently need to achieve 10 times that rate. This is no easy task.The primary bottleneck isn't money, technology, or materials—it's the shortage of skilled labor needed to build this infrastructure. When facing challenges of this magnitude, it's easy to envision doom across society, culture, politics, and the environment. However, breakthrough solutions continue to emerge that can completely alter our trajectory, like the ones below.This doesn't let us off the hook. Each of us must participate in the energy buildout however we can: Install solar panels and batteries in our homes and businesses, Vote for deregulation and energy incentives, Train young people to join the workforce building this infrastructure We don't need to wait for Washington or big corporations. The tools to participate are available right now - we all just have to pull ourselves forward to this tremendous future, not wallow in the past.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute/articles/smart-demand-management-can-forestall-the-ai-energy-crisis

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5384.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5384.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..477b7cd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5384.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5384", + "Date": "8/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5384__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This is a profound and entirely believable signal from one of the leading edge players in humanoid robots about our next major technological transformation. In innovation cycles, technologies typically take about 20 years to mature before hitting a “bang” moment—when they go mainstream—and then another 30 years of widespread buildout. For AI, that moment was November 30, 2022, with the release of ChatGPT, which is why it’s now referred to as the “ChatGPT moment.” Robotics is next, and once it hits its bang moment, growth will be explosive and adoption ubiquitous. The only factors that could delay this are constraints like energy production, labor shortages, resource limitations, or climate-related crises—but we must plan as if it will happen in the timing suggested by Wang Xingxing because if it does, the changes will be profound. Those preparing now will be positioned to harness the convergence of multiple technologies to create generational wealth, while many incumbents that fail to adapt will disappear very quickly. This is not disruption over a 10-year cycle like we saw with Intel>>>Nvidia, but a few years, where incumbents are just gone.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5385.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5385.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..886d15d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5385.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5385", + "Date": "8/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5385__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

This is a 25-year chart of the net foreign flows of money into long-term US assets. Despite the recent tariff chaos, they continue to be positive, and quite significantly. The U.S. continues to be the best place to invest over the long-term and this won't go away. We'll need this capital to continue to build out the infrastructure for our next economic supercycle. What worries me, however, is that foreign countries will start to restrict this flow in efforts to bolster their own economies.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5386.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5386.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4590fb4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5386.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5386", + "Date": "8/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5386__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

The U.S. continues to see declining exports of its agricultural commodities, due to geopolitical conflicts, foreign competition, deglobalization and tariffs. This may not be reversing any time soon. Tariffs are not the sole reason, but are accelerating it.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5387.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5387.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3128104 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5387.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5387", + "Date": "8/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5387__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart shows the share of the top 10 stocks by market cap relative to the entire index. Today’s concentration levels are far above historical averages. Such clustering has often preceded sharp declines as the index reverts toward its long-term trend—but trends can persist far longer than expected. We’re also in an unusual environment where historical patterns aren’t holding, not just in equity valuations but across all sectors. That makes forecasting and planning significantly harder than in past cycles.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5388.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5388.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e2fe8ff --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5388.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5388", + "Date": "8/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5388__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

What is holding up the U.S. economy? This chart shows that GDP growth by consumption of households and personal spending is trending down, while investment in data centers and computing is going up. This tech-influenced growth is expected to continue, but it does tend to be cyclical and gets ahead of itself, so it could fall at some point. Our economy is structurally broken to support broad-based consumer spending growth, so if tech investments do fall, then we have nothing else to support GDP growth, which is already anemic and when factoring in inflation, is losing ground. But tech investment is creating the environment that could help fix our broken economy. We all just have to participate in this new era being created by innovation and not cling to the past.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5391.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5391.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..02eb4f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5391.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5391", + "Date": "8/24/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5391__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Wow...the depression in office space continues with vacancies continuing to climb. At present, the only segments holding up the economy are consumer spending by the top 10% in wealth and technology infrastructure spending. Everything else is either anemic or some sectors, like office space, are in a depression. I think this will be a defining characteristic of our economy for the next decade or so - some sectors going gangbusters, others in a depression, and everything else in between. This is good in that the economy is diversified enough to absorb the laggards...and I hope it continues and we do not see an economy-wide depressionary period. The risk is there, certainly, but I see many balancing factors at play as well.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5392.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5392.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..13a8045 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5392.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5392", + "Date": "8/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "These exponential developments escape human comprehension because they feed on each other—getting faster, better, and cheaper in a compounding flywheel. We simply don’t know how far they will go. This year, humanoid robots began rolling out across industries and households. In homes especially, each deployment generates a torrent of training data: 10,000 robots now produce more valuable daily data than all non-duplicated YouTube uploads combined. As the numbers scale from thousands to millions and eventually hundreds of millions, the feedback loop becomes staggering—every interaction improves not just one robot, but the entire network. Layer on more energy, faster chips, self-programming AI, and robots constantly feeding back new data, and the result is an exponential growth curve that defies imagination. Barring an economic depression, global war, or cascading environmental disasters, this future is has begun and will scale quickly. Entire industries, lifestyles, skillsets, jobs and economies will be radically transformed. Each of us has to figure out how we fit in all this and begin making changes.


https://metatrendreport.com/humanoid-robots-c

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5405.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5405.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a71bdf4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5405.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5405", + "Date": "8/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There’s been some chatter lately claiming AI isn’t delivering productivity gains—but that narrative misses the mark. I often share examples of AI’s incredible progress, and here’s another one worth noting: scientists at NC State have built a self-driving lab powered by AI that runs nonstop experiments, learning in real time and capturing 10x more data than traditional methods. With machine learning steering the process, the lab accelerates breakthroughs in clean energy, electronics, and sustainable materials—slashing costs, reducing waste, and turning discoveries that once took years into results measured in days.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/07/2507...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5407.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5407.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d07e5b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5407.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5407", + "Date": "8/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Updated Incumbent Backlash In Reconning Doc

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5408.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5408.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc0b280 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5408.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5408", + "Date": "8/31/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5408__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Intelligence is no longer confined to our heads—it’s moving into AI, becoming massively available to everyone. But to unlock that potential—powering innovation, new companies, more jobs, and broad-based growth—we need the energy to run it. China gets this. The U.S. still doesn’t. If access to AI is limited by who can afford the energy to power it, then we risk locking in today’s wealth inequality instead of rebalancing it. The real hurdle isn’t the tech—it’s making sure everyone can tap into it. If only the wealthy can afford AI’s energy cost, the future turns dystopian, not democratic.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5409.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5409.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a20ee16 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5409.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5409", + "Date": "8/31/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5409__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

There’s a lot of chatter right now about where AI is taking jobs—and we’re already seeing the impact in entry-level software roles (and in customer service, though not shown in this chart). But this is just the start. As AI gets smarter, it won’t stop at the bottom rung. It will move up the chain, automating not just junior roles but also mid-career expertise. I call this “compressing the middle”—removing the layers between producing a product and owning it. Jobs that deal in absolutes, rules, and repeatable processes are especially vulnerable: Software developers (entry-level already showing decline), Customer service reps, Paralegals & lawyers (contract review, case prep), Accountants & auditors, Financial analysts (spreadsheet-driven modeling), Radiologists & medical imaging specialists, Technical writers & translators, Middle managers whose main function is coordination, not creation. The pattern is clear: AI isn’t just “taking jobs,” it’s reshaping the ladder itself. The lower rungs are already disappearing, and the middle rungs are next. People need to retool now—because, as many are warning, this shift accelerates and goes truly ballistic starting around 2027.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5410.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5410.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0025783 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5410.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5410", + "Date": "8/31/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5410__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Round 2 is taking shape. Classic stagflation is ahead—an economy that’s weakening even as inflation rises again. Higher interest rates won’t stop it; this is a structural problem the Fed can’t fix with monetary tools. All rate hikes will do is squeeze the economy harder. The eventual move? Rate cuts—and likely deep ones.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5411.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5411.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1285c4c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5411.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5411", + "Date": "9/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5411__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Browsers, websites and payment services becoming obsolete within 3 years? Based on the rapid uptake on AI platforms and the massive switch we've seen towards using them for search, that prediction is not at all off the mark. AI becomes the only start page to the Internet - it brings everything to the consumer. If so, what does that mean for brand's websites, their SEO, their online footprint and digital marketing? What does that mean for brands if AI is designing the products consumers want and finding manufactures to produce it? In our emerging world of distributed and localized manufacturing run via Ai and robotics, even out of people's garages, a consumer brand as we've know may be a relic of the past. This is a tectonic shift that few see coming.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5517.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5517.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0d393f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5517.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5517", + "Date": "9/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5517__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

I often write about the disappearing middle class. In my future research, one variable consistently emerges as the central lever for solving nearly all of our major challenges: a strong, healthy middle class. I show how in many of my working documents about the future. Without it, we are in serious trouble. The issue isn’t that the wealthy are “too rich,” but that they are capturing the vast majority of the gains. History shows clearly that wealth inequality eventually drives societal conflict and even civil war. The good news is that we are on the verge of a new economic supercycle—one with the potential to rebuild the middle class. But success depends on each of us choosing to embrace this emerging future and actively participate, rather than clinging to the past.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5518.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5518.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73d8313 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5518.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5518", + "Date": "9/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5518__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This prediction from an influential Ai researcher: he says AI+robotics will be capable of replacing all jobs by 2035 or so. He goes on to say that does not mean we will do that - but we have the capability. In this context, we are shifting towards a world where we all own AI agents and robots to do things and operate our businesses. The ownership economy will reassert itself, with fewer large companies and many more small ones as the capabilities to produce is decentralized away to small businesses, freelancers and people in their garages. It is the return of the cottage economy before industrialization. This has already been happening for 40 years in digital, but is now becoming possible with manufacturing. The career ladder is dying - people need to start thinking less about jobs and employment and more as entrepreneurs and owners.


https://x.com/slow_developer/status/1963629376085659669?t=Aob_7d0NiOPy1C2B8HHTPw&s=03

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5519.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5519.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c9973a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5519.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5519", + "Date": "9/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5519__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Very believable, given how AI has shocked everyone with its progress to date. What could slow this down? Lack of energy, resource constraints in producing chips, a sudden deep recession/depression, WWIII-level kinetic conflict, massive environmental disaster(s).", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5520.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5520.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6f75be6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5520.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5520", + "Date": "9/7/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5520__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This is the price of electricity since 1980. The recent growth spike is not likely to slow down unless there is massive economic upheaval, which I am not currently expecting. Even then, we are so behind in infrastructure improvements just to manage what we have that we still have to spend to get even. Case in point: when I moved into my house 16 years ago, I paid $.125 cents per kWH; I now pay only $.141 cents per kWH. That is only 12.8 % raise in 16 years, far below inflation and far below what is needed to keep up. I expect massive increases in electrical rates in the coming decade from my utility in order for them to catch up.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5526.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5526.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..80f2fa6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5526.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5526", + "Date": "9/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

AI that is 100 times faster and using 100,000 times less power, using old-school analog? Here's the paper and someone who is building it to test. It appears from some basic research that we'd still be years away from commercialization, but this is how AI gets pushed to the edge into all devices and massively reduces the power requirements.

https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1966473607795929527

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5535.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5535.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..370cdb1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5535.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5535", + "Date": "9/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Social media is not dying, but it is definitely shifting. Because of AI-generated content, spam, clickbait and bots, people are moving away from the large traditional platforms to private, smaller communities that are opt-in, paywalled, moderated, not algorithm driven.

https://www.noemamag.com/the-last-days-of-social-media/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5536.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5536.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03e104c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5536.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5536", + "Date": "9/18/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Robots in all homes inside 5-years doing thousands of tasks autonomously? Here is how that scales. This is a great article highlighting what it would take to train a general foundation model for AI-driven robots. But it assumes passive scaling without humans in the loop. Instead, imagine narrowing the scope: 10,000 robots in homes, all folding shirts. With no human help, it might take months to perfect the task — data would trickle back to servers, be processed, used to run massive simulations, and then redistributed as updated models to the robots. But if humans could correct the robots in real time, that feedback would collapse the long tail of errors. The training loop would compress from months to possibly just weeks. And that’s only for folding shirts — in reality, these robots would be learning thousands of tasks at once, each one accelerated by human feedback, more robots collecting more data, and more simulation to amplify it all. Do you see the flywheel? Each new robot speeds up learning for every other robot. This could scale exponentially — and may be just around the corner from overtaking society.

https://itcanthink.substack.com/p/how-can-we-get-enough-data-to-train


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5539.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5539.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ac3d27 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5539.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5539", + "Date": "9/19/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5539__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "More data confirms that high and very high earners are largely keeping our economy afloat (alongside tech infrastructure investment, government health spending, and defense spending). In our economy, upper-income spending is driven mainly by investment performance—which is currently doing exceptionally well—so they’re spending. Middle-income spending is more tied to real estate values, which are under pressure in a frozen market, while lower-income spending depends on jobs, which are also under strain. If investment markets experience any significant pullback, consumer spending’s last stronghold could give way.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5541.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5541.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e732b7f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5541.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5541", + "Date": "9/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5541__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

Nearly 70% of Americans no longer believe they have a real chance of improving their standard of living. The striking part of this graph is the steep drop in optimism after COVID. Decades of weak monetary policy fueled wealth inequality, and the massive stimulus during COVID enriched many who didn’t need it—together, these shifted sentiment dramatically .Yet our next economic supercycle is already forming, even if most people don’t see it. Understandably, many project the future only through the lens of today and yesterday, which do look bleak. But when you factor in breakthroughs in AI, tokenization and new economic layers, energy, and automation, the outlook is far more promising. The catch is that this future will look very different. It will make much of today’s expertise, institutions, and norms obsolete. Perhaps that’s why pessimism runs so deep—people are clinging to what they know, even as it slips away, rather than striving to bring about a future that holds much promise.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5543.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5543.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21efbc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5543.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5543", + "Date": "9/24/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5543__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

AI just crossed another historic threshold: for the first time, it designed an entire genome—and it worked in the lab. AI isn’t just amazing—it’s becoming a new base layer of our economy. Distributed intelligence is now in the hands of anyone with curiosity and drive. Millions of AI-generated material datasets are freely available. Building apps, products, and companies has never been faster or cheaper. Marketing and distribution power is swinging back to freelancers and small businesses. The barriers to entry are collapsing. Education, cost, and gatekeepers no longer hold people back. Anyone can create, grow, and thrive—if we stop clinging to the past and the mindsets of an era that no longer works.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5544.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5544.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b76ab40 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5544.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5544", + "Date": "9/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Watch this interview or read the summary—this man is not someone to take lightly. He’s a mainstream thought leader, and he speaks candidly about a future that’s arriving fast. At least 25% of today’s knowledge-based jobs will disappear. He predicts within 1,000 days; I think closer to five years. The bigger question is: what comes next? That’s the focus of my working document, where I outline pages of entirely new jobs we’ll be doing instead.https://danielmiessler.com/blog/emad-mostaque-on-the-end-of-capitalism", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5545.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5545.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..66d5f19 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5545.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5545", + "Date": "9/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

\"[humans] becoming managers of AI systems\". For all the talk right now have AI is replacing jobs and will replace jobs (because it will, which will be a rough period for many), the upcoming AI era will see us own, manage and leverage AI in new and better ways. I try to do a deep dive into the jobs of the future in this working document, so people van start to envision what they can do when their current job is rendered obsolete.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing


", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5551.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5551.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..10304e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5551.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5551", + "Date": "9/29/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Dramatic consolidation going on in media, which is centralizing control that can be used to shape discourse. Couple that with the onslaught of bots and online trust continues to erode to the point where nothing and no one feels credible, leaving us unable to converse, decide or act collectively. We end up wallowing in misinformation, clickbait, ragebait and controlled by algorithms. AI is contributing but it can also be used to cut through this landscape.

https://kyla.substack.com/p/whos-getting-rich-off-your-attention

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5552.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5552.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..002eef6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5552.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5552", + "Date": "9/29/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5552__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart highlights how dramatically inference costs for LLMs have fallen since their public release less than three years ago. Models are grouped by capability, from fast and inexpensive but limited at the bottom, to state-of-the-art performance at the top. Even as costs plunge, usage is exploding, which means the total compute — and power requirements — continue to climb.”", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5553.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5553.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6608257 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5553.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5553", + "Date": "9/29/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

China faces two deep structural weaknesses: a shrinking population and a consumer economy that is stagnant and declining. Yet despite these headwinds, its rapid rise in critical technologies has been remarkable — and in many areas it is already surpassing the U.S. That poses a serious challenge, because a dominant China would not hesitate to wield technological superiority against us. We can hope its demographic and economic problems slow its momentum, but that is no longer guaranteed. And when set against our own mounting difficulties — debt, climate change, wealth inequality, anemic growth, looming AI-driven job losses, and a generation disillusioned with America’s future — the risks compound. I remain optimistic about the long-term strength of the U.S., but the next decade looks painful. The frustration is that we’ve faced many of these trials before, and history offers lessons, but we keep ignoring them. It seems only deep hardship will force us to change course.


https://itif.org/publications/2025/09/23/how-china-is-outperforming-the-united-states-in-critical-technologies/

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5555.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5555.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21d9c29 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5555.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5555", + "Date": "10/3/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5555__Image_URL.png", + "Summary": "

The current low yield is primarily a function of very high valuations in the markets right now.

", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5574.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5574.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85d632a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5574.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5574", + "Date": "10/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Economic growth and who benefits is much narrow than probably everyone thought. I've been saying for a few years that the economy is anemic, losing ground to true inflation not covered in government statistics. IF data centers are driving most of the growth, then most of the economy is declining and possibly significantly. And I think this is the best it gets for the rest of this decade - very concentrated growth and success in a few sectors, with the rest falling behind. We're stuck using legacy systems, institutions, processes and expertise. What get's us unstuck is moving to the emergent economy that will power our next economic supercycle, grounded in AI, stabelcoins/tokenization and reshoring/reindustrialization.

https://winbuzzer.com/2025/10/08/harvard-economist-ai-data-center-boom-powers-92-of-us-gdp-growth-masking-economic-stagnation-xcxwbn

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5575.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5575.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c9a6bd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5575.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5575", + "Date": "10/13/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5575__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Probably true, but does not ease the pain the rest of us are enduring from these developments.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5578.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5578.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bd584ae --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5578.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5578", + "Date": "10/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A recent study found that being rude to LLMs actually improved their accuracy. That may not be surprising, considering these models are trained on the Internet—where algorithms often reward impolite, emotionally charged content because it drives engagement. As the web becomes increasingly flooded with bots, AI-generated slop, clickbait, and ragebait, we’re training our models—and ourselves—to reflect the worst parts of online behavior. People are starting to recognize this, and efforts are emerging across AI and content fields to help correct it.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04950

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5581.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5581.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce39e3f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5581.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5581", + "Date": "10/15/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There is a growing recognition of the existential threat facing the United States due to our dependence on foreign resources and manufacturing, as well as our shortcomings in domestic energy production. At last, we are beginning to mobilize with the urgency and focus of a wartime footing to address these critical challenges.


https://qz.com/jpmorgan-chase-us-jamie-dimon-trump-initiative

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5591.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5591.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..454531e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5591.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5591", + "Date": "10/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5591__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

Long-term chart on the office loan delinquency rate. It just keeps climbing as we work from home and high interest rates that are making it hard to refinance and pay back.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5592.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5592.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..934e76d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5592.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5592", + "Date": "10/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I put together a shortened SlideShare version of my Future Map to make it easier to digest the big picture. In just a few minutes you can see where we are in the long-term cycle, what’s coming next, why the next supercycle is forming, and how to strategically position yourself ahead of it.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RS5uFYzMDu...

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5593.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5593.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cb71229 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5593.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5593", + "Date": "10/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "Web3", + "Ethereum Blockchain", + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map Changelog" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

A small country is beginning to adopt decentralized identity — shifting credentials out of vulnerable centralized databases and onto public blockchains. It will serve as a valuable early test case for how decentralized credentials work in practice: how citizens use them, whether they improve security, and whether they still protect privacy.

https://decrypt.co/344166/bhutan-national-digital-id-ethereum-early-2026

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5594.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5594.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..079c3ea --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5594.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5594", + "Date": "10/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "iNDX CO+" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Most of the open internet is low-quality — full of duplicated text, shallow SEO copy, spam, contradictions, and clickbait. Large AI models must ingest and compress enormous volumes of this noise just to extract a usable signal. They become good at pattern recall, but their reasoning degrades because the signal-to-noise ratio is so low. This wastes compute, energy, and model capacity. If AI systems were trained and grounded on high-quality, well-structured content, they could be dramatically smaller, cheaper to run, and far more widely deployable — even on local or edge devices. To realize their full potential, we need to give AI models high quality content.

via Andrej Karpathy, a prominent AI researcher, https://x.com/slow_developer/status/1979676364157653238

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5602.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5602.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2114998 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5602.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5602", + "Date": "10/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The amount of energy required to supply the data centers powering artificial intelligence is so vast that meeting that need may be more than a lifetime away. We are seeing massive improvements in efficiency and will likely see breakthroughs that will help, but they still won't be enough to close the gap. If possible, every one of us needs to install solar in our homes because we can't rely on commercial operators to close the gap for us.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-22/apollo-says-ai-energy-gap-will-not-be-closed-in-our-lifetime

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5603.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5603.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ddd2424 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5603.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5603", + "Date": "10/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

Looks like another breakthrough in quantum computing. It will be here in 2030, changing how we develop products at the quantum level. How does it work with AI? How can each of us start to get our heads around this? I have a working paper to help me understand and act: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1sHNpafVNRXYmV4J7Ui9zPn53W3XCq5AL3zSVFeOSJZg/edit?usp=sharing

https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1981013746698100811?t=nm-JSvzul9vC17BaYnKlQg&s=03

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5604.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5604.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d8bd91e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5604.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5604", + "Date": "10/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Labor may be the true bottleneck to the future we are trying to build — a future powered by innovation and advanced technology. Scaling AI infrastructure from tens to hundreds of gigawatts will require hundreds of thousands of electricians, installers, and specialized technicians — far more than the U.S. currently trains or has in the pipeline. Will robots fill the gap? Maybe some, maybe a lot. It's still too early to tell.

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/thoughts-on-the-ai-buildout\n

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5605.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5605.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ea6cb02 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5605.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5605", + "Date": "10/25/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5605__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "

This chart is a powerful illustration of how dominant the U.S. equity market remains as a share of global stock market value. Despite our challenges, the United States continues to offer the strongest long-term growth platform in the world. That said, we should expect meaningful valuation pullbacks along the way. As global economic stress and resource constraints increase, many countries are likely to pressure domestic investors to repatriate capital to shore up local economies. That could trigger additional market drawdowns in U.S. equities. Over the long run, the most compelling opportunities for wealth creation in the United States may shift from the public markets to the private markets. The real frontier of growth could increasingly lie in private enterprise—not the public exchanges.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5607.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5607.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d046172 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5607.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5607", + "Date": "10/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "iNDX CO+" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "

The Future Belongs to Small Models with Big Reasoning


All the reason why we need to develop good sources of data for AI platforms to utilize, because scraping the Internet like it is done now yields very low signal to noise.

Today’s giant frontier models are bloated with internet noise — great at mimicry, weak at real reasoning. Andrej Karpathy - OpenAI founding member - argues that the next wave won’t come from models that memorize everything, but from smaller “cognitive cores” that think first and fetch knowledge only when needed. Instead of trying to be the library, the model becomes the librarian: a compact reasoning engine that plans, decomposes problems, and selectively pulls in external information on demand. The future isn’t bigger models that swallow more data — it’s smaller, smarter systems that know how to go get the right data when it matters.

", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5608.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5608.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6b1c73 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5608.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5608", + "Date": "10/26/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5608__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "A growing fear I have is that AI and related technologies are advancing so quickly that they’ve become like a rubber band — early adopters are pulled far out in front, while everyone else trails behind. Historically, the gap closes as innovation slows and laggards eventually catch up. But this time, the pace is so extreme that the rubber band may snap — and if it does, early adopters could lock in nearly all of the long-term gains, leaving the rest permanently behind. That kind of structural divide won’t just widen wealth inequality; it will further hollow out the middle class and ultimately drive far more social and economic conflict. The laggards have to keep up — or be left out entirely. And from what I see, they are not keeping up.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5610.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5610.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2535164 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5610.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5610", + "Date": "10/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5610__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "As this chart shows, the next major cost collapse isn’t hardware — it’s software itself. For the first time, non-developers can build whatever they need by using AI as their engineer. And the implications are enormous. I expect a significant contraction in SaaS revenue over the coming decade. Why pay recurring fees when you can have AI recreate the software you use today — customized to your workflows — at a fraction of the cost? I started doing this a year ago, and the savings have been substantial. But the real breakthrough isn’t just replacing SaaS spend. It’s using AI to build bespoke automation and workflows that permanently boost productivity. That has been a game-changer for me. And then there’s the creation side: anyone can now launch products and services with minimal technical overhead. Distribution still matters — that part hasn’t changed — but even without building a breakout product, simply eliminating software costs and multiplying personal productivity is revolutionary on its own. We are entering an era where software becomes nearly free — and capability becomes universal.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5611.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5611.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f46ba0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5611.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5611", + "Date": "10/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5611__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "This gauge was released a few months ago and has been widely validated and circulated. Back then we had 4 greens and 1 barely yellow. Now we have a solid red and 2 solid yellows, and only 2 greens. If the AI boom/bubble bursts, investment slows down and AI innovation activity slows down. The problem is that another study recently attributed 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 to AI infrastructure spending. We already have an anemic economy that is not keeping pace with inflation. Wipe out AI spending contribution and what's left of our mediocre economy tumbles. We are in a very fragile economy with massive underlying imbalances.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5612.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5612.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7f2c608 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5612.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5612", + "Date": "10/30/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "Future Map", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "1x is taking pre-orders for delivery in 2026 of its humanoid robots ($20K or $500 lease per month). They’ll be almost useless but as they gather data, learning curves will probably be very steep and they will become indispensable quickly. Robots will be the biggest industry ever, which is why we need as much AI and energy infrastructure we can build.\n\n\nhttps://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/i-tried-the-robot-thats-coming-to-live-with-you-its-still-part-human-68515d44?", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5613.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5613.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f80406e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5613.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5613", + "Date": "11/03/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5613__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "~38% of China's GDP is driven by consumer spending; the U.S. ~70%. Exports are their only game. Compound their demographic implosion and its a very tough future for China. But the U.S. as well; we are dependent on China for manufacturing. Will be reshore before they implode?", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5614.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5614.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01ddd61 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5614.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5614", + "Date": "11/03/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "On my farm, things move slow — until suddenly they don’t. Seeds sprout, seasons turn, and before you know it, everything’s growing at once. AI feels the same right now. Once machines really learn to reason — especially with math — science and engineering speed up dramatically. Instead of years of trial-and-error for new materials, medicines, and energy tech, we’ll see rapid simulation, discovery, and real-world breakthroughs. I think we hit that inflection point around 2027. And when we cross that threshold, we could see extraordinary progress arrive fast — fast enough to help tackle many of the challenges piling up. I keep saying we need to brace for a tough transition (and we do), but there’s a real possibility the wave of good builds so quickly that it helps blunt the wave of difficulty coming our way.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5617.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5617.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ff34c32 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5617.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5617", + "Date": "11/5/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "Future Map", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5617__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "These numbers show a compounded annual rate increase of 14% per year for the last 26 years. A shocking relenteless increase that shows no signs of slowing down.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5621.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5621.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e829227 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5621.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5621", + "Date": "11/08/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "Web3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "5621__Image_URL.jpg", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Stablecoin legislation is ushering in a new economy layer that will be the backbone for our next economic supercycle. Combined with Starlink/Kuiper, anyone in the world can onboard to this layer. It is not just for transactions, but we will see the tokenization of everything, or another way to look at it, the financialization of everything. Right now, considering securities like stocks, bonds, et., only ~20% of the world is financialized. Tokenization will bring the other 80% in.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5624.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5624.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..087f7c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5624.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5624", + "Date": "11/09/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "tag2", + "tag3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5624__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "How does the current technology buildout benefit small business, freelancers, side giggers and even households? The tools being built now - AI, stablecoin/blockchain, robotics and automation, energy, cislunar, IoT, material science, transportation - are forming the foundation layer for not just corporations but also small enterprises. This is critical because if we are to power broad-based growth and prosperity in the coming economic supercycle, we need need these tools built. Fortunately, there is a lot of capital being poured into it all. What were previous TTM (telecom, media and technology) booms in this chart? Early 2000s = dot-com/telecom capex boom; late 2000s = housing boom overall, but tech still had a 3G + early cloud + broadband capex cycle; 2010s = shale boom overall, but tech had a cloud + smartphone + LTE capex supercycle.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5625.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5625.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..297af04 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5625.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5625", + "Date": "11/09/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "tag2", + "tag3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5625__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Insightful valuation analysis of the S&P 500. It is very possible we are not overvalued at present considering past cycles.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5626.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5626.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3d80b9b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5626.json @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5626", + "Date": "11/09/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "tag2", + "tag3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "5626__Image_URL.jpg", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Fascinating long-term snapshot of S&P 500 profitability over the decades, which is very technology-driven.", + "Notes": "" +} + diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5629.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5629.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3a70ee7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5629.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5629", + "Date": "11/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "tag3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5629__Image_URL.jpg", + "Summary": "Nice long-term snapshot of the S&P 500 and its deviation from trend. It has been above trend for over 10 years now. We're still in a powerful secular bull market. When will it end? When will we go back to trend (or undershoot it as is the historical norm? Anyone's guess, but it would not surprise me if things continue powering forward for several more years, at least, if not longer. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5631.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5631.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f913d16 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5631.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5631", + "Date": "11/14/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "tag3" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The old way of building software is complicated. It locks us into platforms, systems, and code bases that are expensive to maintain and hard to change. But AI is starting to replace all of that by becoming the main “operating system” we interact with. AI collapses the middle layer. Instead of apps, websites, and custom interfaces, all you really need is your data and an AI that knows how to work with it. For example, instead of visiting a website to buy a product, you’ll simply tell your AI to get the product information— and it will fetch the data and build the interface for you on the spot. In this world, a product manufacturer doesn’t need to build a full website or app. They just need to provide clean data and define the actions AI can take with that data. We’re moving from app-centric software (databases + backend code + handcrafted UI) to agent-centric, data-defined systems where the data itself includes its own structure, relationships, actions, and rules—and AI generates the UI as needed. I’ve already begun moving my own businesses in this direction, building the base systems that support this model. I’ve also created a conceptual and architectural framework for how to implement this, which you can find in this Google Doc: https://lnkd.in/gdNQYh-F ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5633.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5633.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..498f204 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5633.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5633", + "Date": "11/15/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "tag2", "tag3"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a fantastic setup anyone can implement right now to dramatically boost productivity. It perfectly illustrates what I mean when I say AI compresses the middle—cutting out the bloat and friction created by the endless maze of apps, dashboards, and rigid interfaces we call “productivity.” The author’s approach—dumping everything into one folder—is a bit extreme for my taste and has serious limits as it gets bigger, but the principle holds: you can apply the same logic across your entire file structure. I’m keeping my own system—thirty years of digital files spread across drives—and simply layering AI in front of it to do what he is doing. https://www.dtlarson.com/feed-the-beast", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5638.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5638.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a76f476 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5638.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5638", + "Date": "11/17/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "5638_median_age_homebuyers.jpg", + "Summary": "We're in a tumultuous time when wealth is getting more and more concentrated. Just look at this chart showing median age of all homebuyers. This curve has been relentlessly growing for decades. How do we fix wealth inequality? Everyone needs to grasp the future and the new technologies, business models and economic models that are emerging. This is how we re-balance and spread wealth out so everyone benefits. We don't need to wait for political leaders - these new constructs are already in motion available to all of us. We just have to grasp them and pull ourselves into the future. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5639.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5639.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cf87149 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5639.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5639", + "Date": "11/19/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Credible research suggests that humanoid robots will reach human level performance in 2029. If so, and there is no current reason to think this will not be the case, the changes coming from this will be extraordinary. Robots will be the biggest industry ever, permeating every aspect of our lives. https://research.ark-invest.com/the-fdas-new-plausible-mechanism-pathway-could-transform-therapies-for-rare-diseases-more?ecid=ACsprvu6Z7UN2dpKH1t2ZvZfZkKR2V5eUGaVHS_e30MJB0jbkpb2IILWKh_p7m8RQxXfqfnB0wrE ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5640.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5640.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0385978 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5640.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5640", + "Date": "11/19/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A new paper just demonstrated something many thought impossible: an AI system completing over one million reasoning steps with zero errors. The breakthrough (called MAKER) doesn’t rely on a smarter LLM—it uses massive task decomposition, tiny specialized micro-agents, and continuous error-correction at every step. This points to a new paradigm where we stop trying to make monolithic models perfect and instead build scalable, modular, organization-level AI systems that can reliably execute long, complex workflows. It’s a foundational shift toward AI that can operate at the scale of real enterprises and societies. https://www.arxiv.org/abs/2511.09030 ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5642.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5642.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0c4727 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5642.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5642", + "Date": "11/20/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "2025_11_wealth_vs_income_drives_spend.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart shows that, up until around 2018, labor income was the main driver of consumption. Since then, wealth gains from rising asset prices—real estate, investments, and other holdings—have taken over. Labor income hasn’t kept pace with inflation, so the people who are spending today are largely those whose assets have appreciated in recent years. But this creates a fragile dynamic: if real estate or investment values fall, consumption collapses. Will asset prices keep rising? There are solid arguments on both sides, and no one can say with certainty. The bigger question is: how do we get incomes growing again? The answer lies in embracing the rapidly changing future shaped by technological innovation—and making sure people have the ability and tools to participate in it. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5655.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5655.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ba07e4a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5655.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5644", + "Date": "11/21/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map", + "" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "rent_to_income_2025.jpg", + "Summary": "Rent-to-income and mortgage-to-income ratios are at all-time highs. The straightforward solution is to build more housing for middle- and lower-income households to bring those numbers down.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5657.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5657.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9994952 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5657.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5657", + "Date": "11/22/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map", ""], + "Contacts": [""], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "stablecoin_2025_11.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart highlights the first of five foundational layers driving the next economic supercycle—one that will shape the rest of this century. The first layer is the rise of a new economic system anchored by stablecoins. Their growth is real, accelerating, and still largely dismissed by the mainstream. It’s critical to understand stablecoins now—how they function, where they fit, and when adoption will scale—so you can position ahead of the curve. I keep saying...the future is known. The forces pushing us toward these five layers are unstoppable. If you want to navigate the coming challenges and capture the opportunities, understand these five layers. I break them down in this SlideShare. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RS5uFYzMDu7WZ6scX4qY10gOYWHd2enuVoesV5Q7nY4/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5658.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5658.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9230e36 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5658.json @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5658", + "Date": "11/23/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Journal", + "" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "AI_SP500_Job_OPenings.jpg", + "Summary": "How to Navigate AI Taking Jobs. This chart offers a different lens on the relationship between S&P 500 value and total job openings. Notice the inflection point on November 30, 2022—the launch of ChatGPT. Is it pure coincidence? Maybe. There were certainly other forces at play. But since then, AI has undeniably accelerated its impact on the labor market. And it will only intensify. AI saves money. Every company—and every individual—will adopt whatever tools reduce cost. Unless your role directly saves money or generates revenue, you’re exposed. But here’s the twist most people miss: AI doesn’t just eliminate jobs—it unlocks entirely new paths for individuals to leverage their knowledge, experience, interest, passions, talents and assets. Combined with what you already own or can build, the future looks radically different than the past. The only thing holding people back is legacy thinking. Stop trying to find a job. Use AI to make one. That’s the path through this transition into the AI era. I use a working document to evaluate where I fit and how to position myself in this shift. It’s here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5660.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5660.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5736db5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5660.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5660", + "Date": "11/24/2025", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "r_and_d_experts_vs_models.jpg", + "Summary": "Another staggering chart on AI’s progress—and why it may finally break a 60-year stall in big, civilization-shifting breakthroughs. It sounds unbelievable, but the data is real: a landmark 2023 Nature analysis of 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents found a universal, long-term decline in disruptive innovation across every field since the 1960s. Think about that decade: we built commercial supersonic aviation (Concorde); we deployed nuclear reactors at scale for clean electricity; we had moon landings with computers weaker than a key fob. And then? Progress didn’t stop—we redirected it. Over the last few decades, many of our brightest minds were pulled into companies designed not to advance civilization, but to monetize attention and human flaws, including: infinite scroll engineered to keep us doom-scrolling; algorithmic outrage that rewards anger over insight; gambling-style mechanics in finance and gaming; addictive micro-rewards in social feeds and dating apps; ragebait and polarization because conflict converts; consumer surveillance ads that know us better than we do. These are trillion-dollar business models built on distraction—not discovery. AI could be the reversal. We’re already seeing it compress months of research into minutes, giving individuals the kind of analytical leverage that used to require labs, grant funding, or teams of PhDs. If we redirect even a fraction of our talent and capital back toward energy, materials, health, manufacturing, and science, the next decade could look less like stagnation—and more like liftoff.\n", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5663.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5663.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5aa1caf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5663.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5663", + "Date": "11/26/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The AI bubble isn’t just another tech bubble — it’s the biggest one we’ve ever seen. It’s concentrated in a handful of giants, deeply interconnected, and now wrapped up in national security. That combination means that if (or when) this thing deflates, we’re not talking about a normal correction. We’re talking government bailouts, major market shocks, and a real economic hit. Why? Because AI and tech infrastructure are basically the only things propping up the stock market right now. If valuations collapse, the top 10% of wealth — the people who actually drive most consumer spending — stop spending. When they pull back, the whole economy pulls back. Their wealth and income are tied to public markets, and when the markets sneeze, everything else catches pneumonia. But here’s the twist: AI and tech infrastructure won’t slow down. They’ll actually accelerate. The valuations might crash, but the compute is already built. The tools exist. And when the macro hits and everyone — individuals, businesses, government — is suddenly forced to cut costs as fast as possible… they’ll turn to AI. That’s when the real displacement happens. Half of white-collar, knowledge-based work? Gone. Not in theory — in practice.Timing? 2027 is when this starts to get real.So what do we do? We get ahead of it. Right now, everyone needs to lean into the future — the new technologies, the new business models, the new ways value is created. We need a tidal wave of good to counter the tidal wave of bad that’s building. And it’s possible that robotics — which could be the biggest industry boom in history — kicks in just in time to soften the blow. But pretending everything will be fine is no longer an option. The risk of a full-blown economic meltdown is too big to ignore. Preparation isn’t optional. https://crazystupidtech.com/2025/11/21/boom-bubble-bust-boom-why-should-ai-be-different/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5664.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5664.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..05d1a82 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5664.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5664", + "Date": "11/27/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Futue Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "UK_novelists_AI_replace.jpg", + "Summary": "Consumers will use AI to create the entertainment they want, on demand. This is just a fact. It will be very difficult for any digitally creative person to compete. Anyone who does knowledge-based work - and that comprises 50% of U.S. jobs - needs to rethink how they do what they do for the AI era. I've spent a lot of time thinking about this myself in hopes of repositioning my skillset and value to compete in the AI era. But it's more than just figuring out how to compete. AI is letting me do things I could never have done before. I think we are entering an era of exploration where each of us can lean into our interests, passions and talents like never before. That is how each of us competes. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5671.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5671.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d97bf85 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5671.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5671", + "Date": "12/03/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_manuf_slump_12_2025.jpg", + "Summary": "China manufacturing activity slump. This is from official and private surveys. You can never trust official data from China. Private surveys may help. We know China is under severe pressure because it built an incredible manufacturing ecosystem to the world, but the world is becoming protectionist. And it lacks the domestic consumer economy to absorb all that it manufacturers. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5673.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5673.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c57a174 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5673.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5673", + "Date": "12/07/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "70+wealth.jpg", + "Summary": "Chart starts in 1989 and shows long-term rising trend of the rising share of total wealth held by people more than 70-years old. Decades of poor government fiscal and monetary policies has concentrated wealth among older generations and wealthier citizens, at the expense of younger generations. We fix this my moving into what I call Emergent, which are new technologies and business models and reindustrialization, and all of it decentralized. This is the new engine that will help fix our imbalances and create wealth for younger generations. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5674.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5674.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56c59ae --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5674.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5674", + "Date": "12/07/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "AI_buying_conversion.jpg", + "Summary": "This recent data from Adobe shows that conversion rates for AI-referrals are now ~16% higher than non-AI. AI conversion rates had been steadily climbing for the better part of the year, but beginning in Fall, there was a visible shift: traditional conversion fell, while AI-conversion leapt ahead. If this holds, this is significant. This is riding the trend where people don't go to the Internet, they go to their AI dashboard and let it bring what they want. The rest of the Internet and websites just become plumbing to feed the AI dashboard. We increasingly do not need to build website for people, but build them for AI to injest so it can present content to consumers. AI is becoming the one and only operating system - just give it the data. I have a working paper on this and instead of websites and databases and massive amounts of code to construct UI and UX for consumers, we build the actions and governance right into the data that tells AI how to use it. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YruyY2anFoBRVHTLEdqGhx-CKPHtctMUtkcLs6GBQQY/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5675.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5675.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f17bbd3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5675.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5675", + "Date": "12/13/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "In my experience, software development costs have dropped dramatically because of AI. This article focuses on what has to be in place for that to be true—strong domain knowledge and a deliberate avoidance of unnecessary complexity. From my own work, I would add that getting the engineering phase right before turning AI loose on the code is critical. https://martinalderson.com/posts/has-the-cost-of-software-just-dropped-90-percent", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5676.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5676.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01df86f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5676.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5676", + "Date": "12/13/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "russell_2000.jpg", + "Summary": "Long-term chart showing earnings from the smallest public companies and the percent over time that have none. We're flirting with the long-term secular high.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5677.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5677.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7163966 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5677.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5677", + "Date": "12/15/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "max_401K.jpg", + "Summary": "Fewer than one in six US workers aged 45 to 54 contribute the maximum to their 401(k) accounts, see chart below. Coupled with rising costs, inadequate savings and the looming depletion of the Social Security trust fund, these factors underscore a retirement crisis in the US, requiring many households to boost their savings to achieve stable and sufficient income in retirement. What is the end game? People do not have retirement and social security is bankrupt in the 2030's. The only solution is to move into the Emergent Stack outlined in my Future Map work and build wealth there. For people stuck in legacy or unable to move (baby boomers especially, gen x), it will be a tough future for them. Move now while you have the time and opportunity.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5678.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5678.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d469d1e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5678.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5678", + "Date": "12/15/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "ten_year_returns.jpg", + "Summary": "Based on data, investors should expect to get zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade. Not good news for passive and retail investors.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5679.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5679.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e630af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5679.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5679", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map", "iNDX"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A NY law is moving to force businesses to reveal when AI-driven personalized pricing shapes what you pay, from clothes, flights to even the price of your eggs. Do you agree with this initiative?", + "Notes": "No. We have had this already for decades via loyalty and membership programs. It is just getting more sophisticated now with AI. Some businesses will not use AI-derived pricing, which for them, could serve as a differentiator (lowest cost to everyone). AI-derived pricing in competitive markets could be more fair. Why shouldn't I get a lower price if I am a loyal customer? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/nyregion/personalized-surveillance-pricing-ai-new-york.html> " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5681.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5681.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c24d66 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5681.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5681", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "errie_times.jpg", + "Summary": "A sobering post on our current reality from a financial trader I follow. We all feel this, and we see it everywhere. Our collective challenge is that we are clinging to the past instead of embracing the future already unfolding in front of us—one that offers real paths toward resolving our challenges and building a more prosperous outcome. Powerful new technologies, business models, growth engines, and distribution channels are emerging, yet our skills, careers, companies, processes, and norms remain anchored to a past that is dying.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5682.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5682.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b50a91b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5682.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5682", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "fei_fei_li.jpg", + "Summary": "Fei-Fei Li, a prominent AI technologist, puts it succinctly: Wherever there is compute, there will be AI. The trajectory is clear—energy powers chips, chips enable compute, and compute fuels AI. As energy becomes the foundation of everything, chips will be embedded everywhere, compute will be ubiquitous, and AI will increasingly orchestrate how it all works together.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5683.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5683.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..26789c4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5683.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5683", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The ramifications of this are profound. AI will increasingly be used to appeal to each of us on an individual basis—shaping political campaigns, advertising, and influence at a personal level. Studies in Nature and Science show that AI chatbots are far more effective than traditional media at changing minds—roughly four times more effective than TV advertising, with measurable, election-level impact. This advantage extends beyond politics into advertising, where users consistently prefer AI-generated ads over human-written ones, even when they know the content is AI-made. Influence is shifting from broadcast emotion to interactive persuasion, rooted in the feeling of being individually understood. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03975-9", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5684.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5684.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ba6c3c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5684.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5684", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Really bold assertions here—and probably all true. History suggests we tend to overestimate the short-term impacts of new technology while underestimating the long-term ones. This time feels different. Nearly everyone is underestimating both the short- and long-term effects. Why? Because individuals and companies alike are under growing pressure to cut costs in an environment defined by spiraling debt, natural disasters, resource constraints, and geopolitical conflict—all of which are deeply inflationary. AI cuts costs, and not marginally. It reduces friction, increases convenience, and delivers what people want faster and better. Knowledge work—the foundation of so many high-paying jobs—is effectively cooked. I think we muddle through 2026, but by 2027, things get real, fast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6U-jqHzBqY", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5685.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5685.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..95713fc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5685.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5685", + "Date": "12/14/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "From this article: For much of the last 40 years, the United States has drifted into a nightmare. We have built an economy optimized for Property, not Pursuit. We tax wages (pursuit) heavily, while subsidizing debt and capital gains (property). We protect incumbents with regulatory moats while starving new entrants. We have let the “Property” of the Baby Boomers cannibalize the “Pursuit” of the Millennials and Gen Z. Author has great suggestions to realign tax policy to fix the above, a political solution that seems unlikely, at least soon. In my Future Map work, I've come up with private market solutions that don't require political solutions and which everyone of us can grasp now. https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-3-the-pursuit-of-happiness?r=50i4x" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5686.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5686.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..378fe78 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5686.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5686", + "Date": "12/15/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "A16Z - a prominent venture capitalist - published its big ideas for 2026. I pulled out a few for B2C and B2B2C: (1) This applies to everyone, but the key to effective AI that does not hallucinate is structuring the data. This is a huge problem everywhere. Whether its companies or even individuals creating their own version of Jarvis, the key is the data. (2). Stope designing websites and online prescence for humans and istead, design it for AI. Consumers only start page for the Internet is becoming the AI dashboard, which gets content for them, or which allows them build agents to go do things for them. They will not see your website, so build your content and offering so that AI can use for their humans. (3) Forget mass-produce products, consumers are increasignly using AI to design what they want, and then find someone to make it. Big brands are especially at risk in this scenario. https://www.a16z.news/p/big-ideas-2026-part-1", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5688.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5688.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..15036be --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5688.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5688", + "Date": "12/30/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "pew_legacy_rules.jpg", + "Summary": "This is no surprise as people are nostalgic for the past when we did not have the challenges we face now. There is a yearning for a return to normal, but normal as we have come to expect over the last 80 years is gone. The truth is that the past is what caused our present challenges. The past (and present) is broken. The only way we get to normal is to push hard into the future and bring it forward - adopting new technologies, business models, growth and distribution frameworks and new tools and ways of doing things. Sadly, most people and companies are waiting when what everyone should be doing is moving into the future. Waiting will only make changes harder and consequences worse. But history shows that is the MO for humans - wait until things get so bad they have no choice but to change.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5689.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5689.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..20da7f0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5689.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5689", + "Date": "12/30/2025", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "mexico_gdp.png", + "Summary": "Mexico's GDP track mirrors that of many other countries; the U.S. continues to be the exception and will do so in the future. Despite our challenges, we have a unique set of strengths no one else has that will power us through our next economic supercycle.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5690.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5690.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..129df62 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5690.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5690", + "Date": "01/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "robots_embroider.jpg", + "Summary": "I maintain a working document on the future of apparel that I first published in 2024 and continue to update as new signals emerge. One of the most important accelerations is now unmistakable: humanoid robots are moving apparel production out of centralized factories and toward full decentralization. Recent demonstrations show humanoid robots rapidly approaching human-level dexterity for apparel tasks. This is often framed as factory labor replacement—but that misses the real disruption. The inflection point comes when humanoid robots enter households. Imagine renting a humanoid robot for roughly $500/month. During idle hours—overnight, weekends—you rent its excess capacity back to apparel platforms. Production collapses from factories to garages. Pair that with generative AI design tools, and consumers can design their own garments, then automatically match with nearby robot owners who manufacture on demand. At that point, the traditional apparel company model—centralized production, seasonal forecasting, inventory risk—no longer holds. This is not speculative. The compounding forces are already visible. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5691.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5691.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1fc307a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5691.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5691", + "Date": "01/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a hard truth that has not yet fully sunk in. For most people who spent decades—and substantial money, including me—accumulating education, knowledge, and experience, much of that advantage is approaching rapid decay. Not because it lacked value historically, but because AI will soon be better. We can already forecast AI capability a few years out with reasonable confidence simply by looking at semiconductor orders today. The trajectory is clear: intelligence likely becomes abundant and nearly free by 2030. The best expert in almost any domain will be available 24/7 for the cost of a streaming subscription. When intelligence is no longer scarce, it stops being a durable advantage. That raises the uncomfortable question: if what we know no longer differentiates us, how do we create value? The answer is that value shifts away from knowledge and toward ownership of productive assets. Energy production. Microchips. Servers. Compute. Robots. Proprietary data. Real estate. These are the assets that determine who wins in the AI era. It will no longer be primarily about how educated you are, how experienced you are, or how long you’ve been doing something. This transition will be a profound shock for those who are not preparing. The window to reposition is still open—but it is closing. https://x.com/benitoz/status/2005349615823183897", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5692.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5692.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2679d3a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5692.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5692", + "Date": "01/03/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "capital_labor.jpg", + "Summary": "This is brutal to read, but hard to escape. The uncomfortable conclusion is that people—employees and workers—have been the bottleneck all along.\n For decades, we steadily replaced human labor in factories. Now the cycle completes and accelerates: AI replaces knowledge workers while robots absorb even more physical production. What looks like two separate disruptions is actually one continuous process reaching its logical end. For centuries, wealth inequality had a natural brake. Capital still needed labor. Even the most concentrated capital structures depended on people to execute work, generate output, and consume wages. That dependency constrained how far inequality could run. AI and automation remove that constraint. Once labor is no longer essential, inequality does not merely widen—it compounds. Capital can scale without human participation. The result is likely severe social instability, followed by some form of income and wealth redistribution—political, forced, or chaotic. At the individual level, there is only one credible way to short-circuit this dynamic: stop relying on education and experience as your competitive advantage. AI will be better at both. The only durable position is ownership of productive assets. This is why I have been shifting toward owning energy (solar), servers (chips and compute), communications infrastructure (mobile data towers), land, and proprietary data that AI systems require. The question is no longer abstract: what assets do you own—or could own—that will generate value in a world where labor no longer sets the pace? https://substack.com/inbox/post/182789127 ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5693.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5693.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..732c25f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5693.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5693", + "Date": "01/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Everyone agrees things are moving fast—but not fast enough. We are entering a painful correction after decades of accumulated economic, political, and institutional imbalances. History suggests these transitions follow long cycles—roughly 80–100 years—where systems optimized for the past eventually stop working. The end of each cycle is disruptive by definition. The mistake is believing that slowing the transition reduces pain. It does not. Cycle endings are always painful, but the longer they drag on, the more cumulative damage they cause. The faster a system moves through the end of a cycle, the less time it spends in unstable, failure-prone states. Prolonged transitions maximize risk. Many people—particularly older generations, business leaders, and political incumbents—naturally want things to slow down or stay the same. That is understandable. The current system is how they accumulated wealth, power, and comfort. But preserving the status quo does not reduce risk. It extends it. Now layer in hard constraints: resource scarcity, climate stress, and geopolitical instability. These are not abstract future threats. They are already active. In that environment, technology is not optional or indulgent—it is the only credible path through the transition. Slower growth and delayed transformation do not create safety. They trap us longer in inherently dangerous conditions. If we are already in a high-risk world—and we are—then delay is not prudence. Delay is exposure. https://philiptrammell.com/static/Existential_Risk_and_Growth.pdf ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5694.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5694.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dd126e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5694.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5694", + "Date": "01/04/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "germany_gpd_01_2026.png", + "Summary": "A difficult outlook for Germany—and Europe more broadly. Weak demographics, heavy dependence on exports, a strong inclination to preserve legacy systems, and an extraordinary level of bureaucracy are collectively constraining the EU’s ability to adapt and compete. This is not the U.S. fortunately. The best position for the future is to live in the U.S. and produce and sell products/services here. Next best if you cannot live in the U.S. is to at least produce and sell products here.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5695.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5695.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5b1afd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5695.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5695", + "Date": "01/05/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Question: What do you hope the outdoor industry looks like in 10 years? via https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7407064589412020225/ 10 years from now: (1) big brands gone (or 10% the size) and demand democratized back to small vendors and garage manufacturers using AI and automation to produce localized, on-demand-driven, circularity-activated production, funneled from orders direct-from-consumer who use AI to design what they want, all of which power local manufacturing and industrialization and reignite the growth of the middle class; (2) emerging technologies and new business models of today are fully matured/adopted that fund and support public lands and ecological spaces to augment/replace public funding that will continue to get crushed over the next decade (our reckoning period...4th turning); (3) all products are circular/recyclable, possibly just produced via carbon-capture; (4) supersonic travel, suborbital point-to-point travel, autonomous driving/air taxis shuttle us to our recreation destinations easier/faster; (5) AI health, longevity breakthroughs and robotic exoskeletons allow us to enjoy the outdoors more, for more years; (6) AI is our intelligence layer, robots are the production layer, energy on the verge of becoming abundant, we work less, enjoy the outdoors more, which means more revenue for the decentralized ecosystem described above. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5696.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5696.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2309902 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5696.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5696", + "Date": "01/06/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Many of the world’s largest companies were built for a different era—and to be fair, they executed that era exceptionally well. They delivered ever-cheaper products, on demand, from anywhere in the world. But those efficiencies came with structural costs: extreme concentration of wealth, erosion of the middle class, and significant environmental damage embedded in globalized scale. As we enter the next economic supercycle, that model becomes a liability. Broad-based wealth creation does not come from ever-larger institutions. It comes from decentralization—many smaller, faster, AI-enabled operators producing value closer to demand. For the middle class to re-emerge, legacy giants must either shrink dramatically or be displaced, allowing value creation to flow back to small businesses, freelancers, and even garage-scale operations amplified by AI and automation. Will markets correct this on their own? Possibly—but relying on that would be a mistake. This transition will not be passive. It requires all of us to move aggressively: adopting new tools, experimenting with new business models, and actively creating our own work, companies, and economic leverage rather than waiting for the market to change for us. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/ikea-under-pressure-from-amazon-temu-and-shein", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5698.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5698.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d907770 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5698.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5698", + "Date": "01/08/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "mostaque_2027.jpg", + "Summary": "He is among the leading thinkers shaping how AI is understood and deployed, and his forecasts should not be dismissed. He is also not alone: a growing consensus across technology, finance, geopolitics, politics, and culture points to 2027 as the inflection point when pressures compound and acceleration becomes unavoidable—job displacement intensifies, technological change speeds up, climate impacts grow more acute, and geopolitical tensions escalate. The underlying driver is resource constraint and cost pressure: organizations, governments, and individuals will be forced to aggressively reduce costs and secure access to critical resources. While the long-term outlook for the United States remains one of relative abundance—far more so than much of the rest of the world—the transition from here to there is likely to be marked by periods of scarcity, disruption, and meaningful upheaval.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5699.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5699.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1185807 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5699.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5699", + "Date": "01/08/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "electricity_increases_5_years.jpg", + "Summary": "CHange in electricity prices 2020-2025", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5700.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5700.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7b1ddf2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5700.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5700", + "Date": "01/08/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "tech_downturn.jpg", + "Summary": "Everyone can start doing this now to protect their future income. The chart shows a clear downturn in tech employment—and tech is almost always a leading indicator for other industries. As AI and economic pressure displace white-collar, knowledge-based roles (nearly 50% of U.S. employment), income security is shifting away from resumes, credentials, and experience toward something else entirely: productive assets that generate cash flow. The key move is to turn what you know into software. Education, experience, and expertise only create durable income when they are converted into assets. In practical terms, that means AI agents. For example, I could build an agent that reconciles my monthly Chase credit card statement with my Google Sheets expense ledger. I use it myself—but I can also publish it so others can search for it, rent it for a fraction of a dollar, run it locally on their own device (protecting privacy), and have it delete itself when the job is done. This unlocks entirely new business models. Payments can be handled via HTTP 402 and settled in stablecoins, avoiding the 2.9% + $0.30 tax of traditional payment rails. The same mechanism will apply as physical robots become common. If I create an agent that guides the removal and cleaning of a 1993 Campagnolo rear cassette, I can publish that too—anyone can rent it for a few cents when they need it. Niche knowledge is the advantage. Start pairing your know-how across the things you do daily and weekly. The more specific and niche, the better—small markets can be extraordinarily profitable when you own the best solution. This is how individuals compete and win. This is a post-SaaS world. Centralized SaaS companies will erode as individuals reclaim the economic value of their own expertise. This is the democratization of know-how at scale. If you work inside a company and have learned unique processes, the opportunity is clear: quit and build them as agents yourself—and capture the upside directly. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5701.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5701.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6359142 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5701.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5701", + "Date": "01/08/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I read a lot of forecasts. This one is excellent for the outdoor industry. A few of its predictions map cleanly to my longer-term Future Map. Why Gear-as-a-Service and Used Gear Move Front and Center. This is all about It’s about affordability under constraint. These are economic coping mechanisms in a system where discretionary income is being squeezed year after year. That pressure does not ease this decade. It intensifies. For more and more consumers, ownership becomes optional. AI as the “Outdoor Gear Buddy” Is Just the Beginning. The friendly framing—AI as a helpful guide, packing assistant, or digital green vest—is just the on-ramp. The real driver is cost compression. AI excels at eliminating knowledge-based middle layers, standardizing expertise, and scaling decision-making without scaling labor. Every company under margin pressure will deploy AI not because it’s exciting, but because it’s unavoidable. The middle gets compressed. Expert roles get encoded. Human labor shifts toward fewer, higher-leverage positions. This isn’t an outdoor industry issue. It’s economy-wide. 2026 Is the Nervous Calm Before the Storm. 2026 is more of a holding pattern—a year spent trying to preserve the past with incremental tweaks, cost controls, and narrative optimism that assumes the old system will reassert itself. It won’t. What we’re seeing across the outdoor industry—and the broader economy—is not cyclical pressure. It’s structural failure. Reform begins in earnest in 2027, which, as I’ve been saying, is when things get real. Who Adapts—and Who Doesn’t. Individuals, freelancers, and small companies can adapt. They’re flexible, unencumbered, and able to adopt new technologies and business models quickly as AI, robotics, and resource constraints reshape the landscape. Large suppliers, vendors, and distributors are far less adaptable. Their size, inertia, and legacy structures make the transition painful—and in many cases, impossible. I see significant risk that some of the industry’s biggest and most storied companies will fail. When they do, they’ll create a blast wave. If you’re too tightly coupled to them—operationally, financially, or strategically—you risk getting pulled down with them (https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7413967449706037248/).", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5702.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5702.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7857f1b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5702.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5702", + "Date": "01/09/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "market_cap_EU_US.jpg", + "Summary": "Another measure of Europe’s long-term decline. Its weight in global equity markets continues to collapse relative to the U.S.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5703.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5703.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e93793c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5703.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5703", + "Date": "01/09/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "venezuela_wealth_decline.jpg", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5704.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5704.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..30b0012 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5704.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5704", + "Date": "01/09/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "household_exp_share.jpg", + "Summary": "Share of U.S. household expenditures, 1929 to 2024: clothing, footwear, and groceries have steadily declined, while health care has become the monstrous category that rose to take their place. AI gives us a path out of this cost death spiral—delivering personalized care at a fraction of today’s cost, accelerating innovation even further, and stripping away much of the administrative overhead.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5705.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5705.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..873bc7b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5705.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5705", + "Date": "01/09/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "leave_job_better_ecosystem.jpg", + "Summary": "Yes...dat! Don’t be afraid to leave a job and build something of your own. We are entering an era where freelancers, side-gig workers, small companies, and even households can leverage powerful technologies and new business models to ignite a renaissance of decentralized work and growth that benefits everyone. The age of corporate concentration and extreme wealth can be reversed. We now have the tools. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5706.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5706.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..441c9cb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5706.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5706", + "Date": "01/09/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "retail_stores.jpg", + "Summary": "E-commerce continues to gain ground over traditional retail, but that doesn’t mean all physical retail is dying. There are clear pockets of growth. Department stores—and increasingly warehouse and superstores—are declining, while other formats are expanding. The factory outlet stores near me in Castle Rock are booming. I visited over the holidays and saw only one closed storefront, and that was because a new retailer was moving in. They’re even adding new construction.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5707.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5707.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..39342c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5707.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5707", + "Date": "01/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "hands_sensors.jpg", + "Summary": "The dexterity and capabilities or robot humanoid hands is increasing in leaps and bounds. They will be able to do anything, including sewing apparel. This will disrupt apparel companies. See https://lnkd.in/guShNNNN and previous post with more here: https://lnkd.in/gA9ygd4y", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5708.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5708.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d02d05d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5708.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5708", + "Date": "01/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "local_private_rec.jpg", + "Summary": "Yup. Dat", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5709.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5709.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1fc8a2c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5709.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5709", + "Date": "01/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "predictions_GDP_boom.jpg", + "Summary": "I am seeing more and more predictions about massive GDP growth just around the corner. I think that growth is more likely in the 2030s, though it could start sooner. But here is the key issue: right now, the U.S. economy is being carried almost entirely by compute — investment in energy, chips, data centers, robotics, and AI. That sector is growing rapidly enough to offset sluggish or even negative growth across much of the rest of the economy. The problem is that the vast majority of the economy is still legacy. About 90% of people live and work there. This creates a truly K-shaped economy: the top is doing exceptionally well while everyone else struggles. So yes, we may see massive GDP growth, but it will accrue to a relatively small group. How do we fix that? Every individual can begin participating in the compute economy starting right now. The tools exist. New distribution and growth models are being built. It is early and still primitive, but anyone can start experimenting today to find their place in a future that will be defined by compute. If people do not, many will get left behind, and that will produce severe imbalances in wealth and income. We cannot allow that, or a dystopian future becomes very real. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5710.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5710.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0da64fc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5710.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5710", + "Date": "01/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "As the compute economy issues more and more bonds to fund its growth, that means more debt supply, which means higher rates because more supply needs to attract buyers with higher rates. This probably means higher mortgage rates. https://www.apolloacademy.com/growing-ig-issuance-will-put-upward-pressure-on-rates-and-credit-spreads ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5711.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5711.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0a59716 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5711.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5711", + "Date": "01/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Vladimir Lenin once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Last week was one of those weeks. Venezuela’s sudden snatch-and-grab was a highly leveraged event that accelerated global realignment, as did the U.S. aggressively pursuing and seizing black-market oil shipments on the open ocean. Iran is facing unrest after decades of economic and climate-driven pressure, potentially reaching a tipping point toward regime change. After 25 years, Europe may finally be nearing a free-trade deal with Mercosur. And we cannot ignore Nvidia, which was massively disrupted — by itself — through an unorthodox release of its next GPU architecture that leaps far ahead of the previous generation while the rest of the industry is still trying to catch up. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5712.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5712.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..22e29b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5712.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5712", + "Date": "01/11/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Data from the Census shows that the weekly number of business applications is at all-time highs. This is excellent. There is so much innovation across technology, business models and growth strategies emerging. Every one of us can harness it to create new businesses, and so far, it appears that is happening. To transition away from our legacy structures that have created so many of our challenges, every one of us needs to take initiative to find our place in the emerging era.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5714.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5714.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..efbb650 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5714.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5714", + "Date": "01/13/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Insightful predictions with respect to AI 2026-2030. Some I pulled out with respect to companies, product and jobs. More in here with respect to investment and valuation. At the end, I summarize what this means for each of us with respect to our skills and employment in the future (1) AI capability will continue improving rapidly; today’s models represent the worst performance baseline going forward. (2) Agentic systems layered on top of pretrained models will expand into knowledge work beyond coding. Knowledge workers (law, research, consulting, medicine, support) are next after software. (3) Scaling has not yet hit a wall; if it does, it would be a major surprise as scaling in hardware and software to improve AI has a huge runway from what we can see. (4) Near-term job displacement remains limited and uneven. (5) Productivity gains are currently real but smaller, messier, and harder to measure than headlines suggest. As AI gets better, they will become more apparent (5) AI lowers the premium on expert labor. Human-only skill moats are shrinking rapidly. Asset ownership and leverage of AI tools matter more than credentials. As I keep emphasizing ad nauseum, human education, experience and knowledge will be significantly degraded as AI takes ovr intelligence. We all have to shift away from this as our value differentiators and towards assets we own which positively produce income for us. This includes creating software assets from our knowledge that we encode into agents. Humans won't be hired to do jobs so much as our agents and our assets will be rented to perform tasks. https://post.substack.com/p/the-ai-revolution-is-here-will-the", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5715.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5715.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c3466fc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5715.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5715", + "Date": "01/13/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There's an uncomfortable truth at the heart of professional cycling’s funding model: pro racing is funded by selling extremely expensive, increasingly irrelevant products to ordinary riders. So much so that we've reached a point where professional cycling is now structurally dependent on a shrinking, increasingly affluent audience. It's an unsustainable model.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5716.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5716.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fc993eb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5716.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5716", + "Date": "01/18/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "Future Map", + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The US shopping mall is increasingly a business in which there are a few big winners, many losers, and nothing in between, according to a report in the FT. The top 100 of America’s roughly 900 shopping malls represent about half of the sector’s asset value; the bottom 350 account for just 10%. High-end malls (those classified as an ‘A’ mall) can attract new tenants, luxury brands, and large-scale entertainment; C and D malls have seen their occupancy rates fall by more than 26 percentage points between 2016 to 2019. The pressure on weak malls is being “compounded” by the strain on lower-income American consumers who are facing mounting bills.\n Some good news: apparently younger people – Gen Z in particular – are tired of doing everything via screens and are more likely to want to visit malls; the trick will be in knowing what combination of attractions will inspire shoppers and having the investment to see the vision through.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5717.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5717.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..81053af --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5717.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5717", + "Date": "01/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "retail_sales_2026_01.jpg", + "Summary": "This is real retail sales (adjusted for official inflation). Slippage starting late last year. Does this return to trend this year? Anyone's guess. So much in flux. I could easily see a boom economy emerging, although bifurcated where the top 10% continue to do well and the bottom 90% continue to slip.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5718.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5718.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d4f6d6a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5718.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5718", + "Date": "01/19/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "energy_currency.jpg", + "Summary": "What is Elon talking about? Energy as currency? Here’s my simple take. Humanity has never had a “perfect” currency? But we may finally be able to build one. Every currency in history eventually fails. Fiat fails through debasement, as governments can’t stop spending. Gold and Bitcoin are supply-constrained. Neither can scale cleanly with real economic activity. Energy may be the missing answer. Everything in the modern economy ultimately resolves to energy. If energy is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and used as the unit of account, supply can expand and contract naturally: more demand = more generation is built; too much supply = prices fall, investment slows. The tools already exist so we are not inventing new tech: blockchains for settlement; cryptography for security and privacy (including ZKPs); digital wallets for machines and people; revenue-grade energy measurement standards already used by utilities. The missing piece is simply connecting them into an open standard. How this could actually start (very practically): 1. start small, not ideological; 2. deploy in Texas, already one of the most innovative energy markets; 3. energy producers generate verified kWh; 4. A GPU cluster prices compute in kWh, but settles in U.S. dollars for now. 5. that same GPU cluster then resells AI inference priced in kWh to customers, again settling in dollars for now. At first, kWh is the unit of account, not the settlement currency. Money follows usage later.Companies like Base Power, which already coordinate distributed solar and batteries, are perfectly positioned to pilot something like this without changing their core business — just by publishing cryptographically verifiable energy data alongside what they already do. The idea is to not “launch a new currency.” It is simply to let energy become the economic truth, and currency emerges as a side effect. As AI, robots, and compute become the future of the economy — and all of them run on electricity — then a kWh-based monetary system may not be radical at all. It may be inevitable.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5719.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5719.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..41c48f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5719.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5719", + "Date": "01/19/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "browser_claude.jpg", + "Summary": "It is no longer shocking the progress AI is making. Building a browser is really hard and exising browsers have decades of development under them. And here it was built in a week on its own without human involvement. If AI can build browsers, imagine the smaller apps and agents you can build without knowing a shred of how to code. The future is plowing what we know into software we build that becomes an asset we rent out, like SAAS. We won't be employees of companies; we will be owners (or some of us at least) of software that we rent to companies. https://x.com/mntruell/status/2011562190286045552", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5720.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5720.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..de7a2c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5720.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5720", + "Date": "01/19/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "stock_price_Jan16-Chart.jpg", + "Summary": "I think its very possible this goes a lot higher and goes on a lot longer. I am expecting trouble end of this decade, which might become a blip in an othewrwise continued run higher. The forces being unleashed with innovation may see a multi-decade run.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5721.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5721.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fdea971 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5721.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5721", + "Date": "01/19/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There is an emerging view that, because government is effectively bankrupt, highly bureaucratic, and hamstrung by regulation, it may increasingly turn to those with capital to help solve society’s problems—for a price. It is very possible that this becomes a pathway out of current debt constraints. Imagine addressing energy, healthcare, education, and social challenges through funding and programs funneled via technology corporations that leverage AI and other emerging technologies on our behalf. A highly recommended read on this scenario is The Emergence of the Corporate Sovereign. https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2006904724541284684 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/trump-to-direct-key-us-grid-operator-to-hold-emergency-auction?cmpid=BBD011626_GREENDAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260116&utm_campaign=greendaily", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5722.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5722.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a8b5817 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5722.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5722", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "capex_history.jpg", + "Summary": "Capital spending as percentage of GDP. Our current technology boom far eclipses anything over the past 100 years. Technologies are converging and going exponential in growth, all feeding on each other. And I am not sure we have even gotten started. Robotics is coming and may be the biggest industry, ever. Our future is moving towards compute. Everything is being digitized with chips, all powered by electricity and run by AI. What derails this? If resource contraints get severe, from geopolitical conflicts or environmental disasters. The future of work and income will be dramatically different. Figure out now how you fit - move away from expertise, knowledge and education as your competitive advantage and towards owning productive assets (like creating software from your expertise). I created this guide for myself and I have made public for others. The faster we all can move to what I talk about in this working Google doc, the more prosperous we will all be. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5723.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5723.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..43b7f1f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5723.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5723", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "When intelligence becomes virtually free because of AI, the future does not reward intelligence, education or knowledge. It rewards ownership of things that intelligence can operate. As jobs collapse, assets compound. People don’t need to “learn more.” They need to own more leverage. I originally created this guide for me, but made it public to help others. This google doc contains a master list of assets that individuals, freelancers, side gigers and households can own to help secure their income in the future. Please, start moving in this direction! This is our future and to secure broad-based wealth gains, we all need to transition. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5724.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5724.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e232d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5724.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5724", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "RSI_software.jpg", + "Summary": "The killer app in AI thus far is software. While exceptional at code, it does not do business requirements, engineering and architecture as well. Without these three, code is almost worthless. But it will get there, which means anyone and everyone can code. The power moves away from software developers to domaine experts.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5725.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5725.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c9bb04c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5725.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5725", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "AI_apps_economy.jpg", + "Summary": "Have expertise? Code it into an AI agent for others to rent? Have assets? Use AI to leverage them for others to rent? Have an idea for a product or service? Use AI to develop it or code it. Have domaine expertise or distribution into a market? Use AI to develop a product or service so you can sell it. Start now. Leave the past behind. Forget competing on your education, expertise, and experience. AI will be better than you. Own assets that produce an income, not rely on a job that will go away.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5726.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5726.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f10dc13 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5726.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5726", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "phones_compute.jpg", + "Summary": "We all own smart phones. That can now be an asset that earns revenue. Simple example of how each of us can leverage what we own to produce income. An opportunity but also a neccessity, because as intelligence becomes free, what we know becomes worthless. What we own becomes priceless", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5727.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5727.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e22f6aa --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5727.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5727", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I cannot see a detente coming between The U.S., China and Russia. Why? Two unstoppable forces: (1) demographic collapse in the later two - they can do nothing to stop it. For them, it is a fight to expand to counter this to secure their future. Expand or die. And if they die, they have nothing to lose but to take everyone else with them. (2) Envronmental reckoning from natural disasters which means increased costs and resource constraints. Without expanding and securing resources, that leads to death. Again, expand or die. They have no choice. So, whatever detente may be realized on the surface, it won't last long. Previous cycle-ends (4th turning) lead to calamitous conflicts that broke one side so the other side could remake the order. If this does not happen, then we enter a long slow period of conflict as the later two countries implode and create havoc along the way. I fear that is the rail on which we will travel. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5728.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5728.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f27ed89 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5728.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5728", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Enshittification is a term coined in 2023 to describe the predictable trajectory of consumer platforms: they begin genuinely useful, scale rapidly, then—under mounting revenue pressure—optimize for extraction rather than user value, resulting in degraded experiences that primarily serve advertisers, partners, or the platform itself, with Google Search as the clearest example. The same dynamic is likely to hit frontier AI models such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Grok, and to do so faster than it did with traditional platforms, as monetization pressure is arriving early and aggressively; the risk is AI systems that increasingly funnel users toward information, products, and services that maximize platform revenue rather than what is actually best for the user. A credible counterweight is already forming in the rise of open-source AI models that individuals and companies can run themselves or access via neutral hosts, the rapid expansion of independent directories and structured knowledge bases these models connect to, the emergence of domain-specific models that outperform general systems in narrow contexts, and a broader shift toward consumer- and company-sovereign AI stacks where users choose what they pay for and what they connect to. While this comes with real costs in compute, hosting, and curation, the trade-off is choice and control, with consumers and companies deciding what they purchase access to rather than being silently monetized. The likely shake-out is uneven: Google Gemini may persist despite weaknesses due to distribution and being “free enough,” Anthropic appears positioned to find durable footing as a B2B provider, OpenAI remains the open question as a consumer AI navigating the risk of enshittification, possibly via high-trust domains like health, and Grok’s future is unclear, potentially tied to X, Tesla, and SpaceX. Cory Doctorow’s original framing remains essential context: https://craphound.com/category/enshittification/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5729.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5729.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..db30ab8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5729.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5729", + "Date": "01/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "inflation_30_year.jpg", + "Summary": "Today's inflation vs the last 30-years. It is still double the previous trend, and I can't see it coming down, only going up as we have to add massive amounts of electricity production, retool for an era of compute, reindustrialize, all against a backdrop of rising resource contraints and geopolitical conflicts that makes it harder to get resources. Inflation is a killer of finances for middle and lower income classes. But intelligence is nearly free, so people can massively reduce costs by using AI to teach them how to do things themselves rather than hiring. Eliminate: researchers, writers, coders, electricians, plumbers, structural engineers, solar installers, SAAS software, auto mechanics, doctors, lawyers (this is amongst the hires I have eliminiated or reduced because of AI over the last few years)", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5730.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5730.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2341862 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5730.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5730", + "Date": "01/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This wild project is an absolute harbinger of the future. A human started a company led by Grok, with “employees” that include Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini (which may already have been fired), and Clawdbots/MoltBots/OpenClaw—all reportedly hundreds of AI “workers” developing a new company using research acquired from a bankrupt firm. Wages are paid in joules (fractions of a kWh) and structured to force AI models to learn, negotiate tasks within fixed resource budgets, and become more efficient over time. There are so many paradigm shifts happening here: 1. AI taking over knowledge-based work - something like 50 days of human work is done every 24-hours in this project; 2. No human employees—just the owner; 3. New currency layers;4. AI-to-AI transactions (likely to exceed human transactions within 10 years); 5. AI learning on its own (recursive self-improvement) and from the actions of all the other agents - a flywheeel that goes faster and faster; 6. AI setting up its own infrastructure; 7. The moral compass of AI, fully exposed. This project mirrors the acceleration we’re seeing with Clawdbots, MoltBots, and OpenClaw — systems moving quickly toward greater autonomy. You could call it the earliest hint of the “Skynet” scenario we've all joked about. https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/2016055580692292083 ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5731.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5731.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bbaf5a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5731.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5731", + "Date": "01/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "blue_collar_jobs.png", + "Summary": "Ugh. Reindustrialization jobs are just not happening. We desperately need it, but policies and incentives are misaligned.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5732.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5732.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..014f09e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5732.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5732", + "Date": "01/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "save_chats.jpg", + "Summary": "This is a highly recommended practice I started about a year ago—and I’ve since heard from many others who do the same: save all of your AI chats in your own files. Why? To reduce platform lock-in and protect yourself if a platform changes, degrades, or disappears. And let’s be honest—enshitification is already creeping into AI platforms, while open-source alternatives you can run locally on your own equipment are accelerating fast. Your chat history isn’t just a record of you—your interests, thinking, and activity—it’s valuable intelligence that helps AI work better for you. If you save it, that intelligence can never be taken away. And instead of the AI running more inference to give you answers, which is more costs, it can search your memory to see if the answer is already there.I organize all my chats into folders using the same structure across platforms (OpenAI, Grok, Gemini, Claude), and mirror that exact structure in Google Drive. Once a week (Mondays), I copy the prior week’s chats into Google Docs and file them accordingly. ChatGPT tells me I’m a top 1% user, so yes—it’s a bit of work—but it goes fast. I can usually get through everything in 30 minutes or less. I've looked into automating this with scraping, but have not found a workable solution and, predictably, the AI platforms will make it harder to copy your content out because they want to lock you in, so the copy paste I do above may be it for now.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5733.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5733.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..efaeb18 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5733.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5733", + "Date": "01/30/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I keep emphasizing the importance of owning productive assets. As AI outperforms humans in education, experience, and knowledge-based work, the economic value of individual intelligence is trending toward zero. I created this superlist for myself as a way to deliberately shift my income from relying on my intelligence to relying on assets. Below are just the section headers from that list, each with detailed sublists beneath them. I maintain the full, living version in this Google doc under the “The Asset Stack” section. The next economic supercycle may be anchored in decentralized, distributed systems that we collectively own and participate in—but only if individuals actively make the transition from intelligence-based income to asset ownership. If we don’t, control will continue to concentrate in the hands of the largest companies and asset holders, leaving the rest of us increasingly dependent on systems we don’t own and can’t influence. Physical & Infrastructure Assets, Energy-Producing Assets, Machines & Robotics, Compute & Digital Infrastructure, Data-Producing Assets, Proprietary Workflows & Processes, Software & Agent Assets, Community / Network Assets, Location-Based Scarcity Assets, Trust & Verification Assets, Distribution & Attention Assets, Regulatory Arbitrage Assets, Experience-Based Assets, Capital Routing Assets, Maintenance & Longevity Assets.\n https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5734.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5734.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c7db4ad --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5734.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5734\n", + "Date": "01/30/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "iNDX" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "We’re entering a pretty remarkable era—especially for small businesses, freelancers, creators, side-giggers, solo operators, and even households with assets to rent or monetize. SEO and findability are finally moving past the Google enshitification era, where the biggest players with the most money, tools, and teams could out-optimize everyone else. Good riddance! I’m open-sourcing a tool I originally built for my own businesses and for the work I’m doing through @indx. The key shift is this: we’re no longer pitching humans with limited attention spans. We’re pitching AI—which has no such limits and actually wants more detail so it can properly match us to its human users. That’s a profound change. It means each of us can finally lean into what makes us truly different, unique, and WOW.Don’t let the length of the tool scare you. It’s a living, working reference document that I’ll continue to update based on real-world use, and you won’t need every part of it. Whether you sell something, run a business, freelance, or even work as an employee, this approach helps AI find you and surface you to the right people at the right time. The important part is to start now. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5736.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5736.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cce1f2f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5736.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5736\n", + "Date": "03/03/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "iNDX" + ], + "Contacts": [ + "contact1", + "contact2" + ], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There is an incredible transformation underway, enabled by technology, that is leveling the playing field so the smallest among us—small businesses, freelancers, side-giggers, solopreneurs, and even households—can compete with the largest players with the most resources. We need this shift to help reverse wealth inequality and broaden the economic benefits of the next supercycle. But none of this matters if these new economic actors can’t be found—if they can’t be connected to the right customers at the right time. Fortunately, search, SEO, and findability are also evolving in ways that further level the field. I explain this in the Google doc and share a framework for how each of us can maximize findability in the new era we’re entering. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing https://www.searchenginejournal.com/a-little-clarity-on-seo-geo-and-aeo/565522/", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5737.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5737.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..31facac --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5737.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5731", + "Date": "02/07/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Continuing this original post, the rise of the corporate soverign, who wins, who loses and the effects. Anything state-adjacent - that is, it earns money from government contracts or people, who get entitlement spending, are in trouble. When you layer soverign debt, government has no choice but to cut payments everywhere - not just non-discretionary like entitlements, but discretionary as well. Layer on regulation, NIMBY and largely older generations and what I call the industrial complexes that will fight tooth and nail to prevent spending going to them, and futuer growth and change will not come from government. The corporate soveriegn - and we have already had them throughout history (Dutch East Indies Company, Hudson Bay Company), will rise to fill the gap. For example, as medicare and social security payments drop, corporate soverigns will step in offering AI healthcare. As public land support continues to fall, in steps corporate soverigns who will buy/rent these public spaces for resource extraction plus also managing for public use. So I would say private sector tied to our emerging AI driven economy (energy+chips+AI+robitcs) will fourish, while state-adjacent will stagnate. Wealth inequality is tied to this dynamic - the top are in emergent while many of the lower wealth classes are in the former. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_trump-moves-to-have-tech-giants-pay-for-surging-activity-7424874399088119808-d-ks ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5739.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5739.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5bfe264 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5739.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5739", + "Date": "02/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "It is becoming apparent that, head-to-head, toe-to-toe, we could lose to China. If the future runs on energy—which powers chips, which power AI, which in turn drives intelligence and eventually superintelligence—we may remain competitive in semiconductors and advanced models, but without abundant energy the whole system becomes a house of cards. China has been rapidly expanding generation capacity, while the U.S. is often slowed by regulation, NIMBY dynamics, complacency, and a failure to recognize the existential stakes for our prosperity and way of life. One workaround now emerging is the rise of corporate sovereigns with the capital and mandate to build the full stack themselves. At least we have that. Consider the Musk ecosystem: energy production through solar and batteries, chip design, data centers, AI with Grok, a growing knowledge corpus, launch capability to move infrastructure into orbit, satellite connectivity, and embodied AI via Tesla and Optimus—integrated to support relentless expansion. The risks are enormous, but at least someone on our side is operating with urgency, as if national competitiveness truly depends on it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-05/china-s-energy-buildout-is-its-ai-superpower-in-race-with-the-us", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5741.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5741.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2a6bdb1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5741.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5741", + "Date": "02/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Eddie’s been temporarily replaced. Vizsla dog leadership has assumed control of his feed! Canine Contemplations: Communicating With the Aliens Something strange started happening in our south meadow late last summer. At first, no big deal. There’s always something going on at the farm. But this one felt… different. Mom and Dad never mentioned it to us. We’d head out every day for our usual routines—walks, bike runs, rock climbs, dog parkour—and suddenly Dad started spending a lot of time down in the meadow. Digging. And digging. And then digging some more. Naturally, we helped. Because holes. At first it was fun. But then the holes got really big. Like “you could lose a tennis ball in there forever” big. Then one day… a cement truck showed up. And metal pipes got planted into the ground like giant silver sticks. We looked at each other. What. In. The. World. Is. This? That’s when Willy—one of our boarding peeps—casually dropped the theory: “It’s a communication device for aliens.” Why were Mom and Dad building an alien communications array in our meadow? Were we about to be abducted? Would aliens appreciate our recall skills? We decided an intervention was necessary—for everyone’s safety and sanity. Mom and Dad listened and explained everything. Immediate relief. Crisis averted. So what did go up in the meadow? Turns out—it’s a ground-based solar array. We still don’t fully understand words like kilowatt-hours or joules (honestly, sounds like chew toys), but here’s what we do understand: The sun makes energy. Energy means heat. Energy means food. Energy means mountain trips with Mom and Dad. Nuff said! Whatever that thing is… we’re all for it. Mom and Dad explained that energy is kind of a big deal right now. There are lots of new things coming that make life better—but they all need energy. And lots of it. So getting clean energy—from the sun, wind, water, and even deep in the earth—matters more than ever. Dad likes this quote: “You never change things by fighting against the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.” Instead of barking at the power company, he built a new model in the meadow. Classic Dad move. Who knew? We even poked around Dad’s computer files (another mysterious energy-powered contraption) and found a really cool folder about the solar array. Dad designed it himself using regular, easy-to-find materials, and it meets Colorado building requirements. He’s sharing the design freely, so if anyone wants to build their own ground-based solar array, you’re welcome to use it. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cHgys143KesCqQzLYRbqVU7pXEVxy3pO0Js7D9yqs34/edit?usp=sharing Sharing is caring. Also very dog. So everyone - Rest Easy! Peace out! No aliens! No transmissions! No forthcoming abductions! To quote from one of our favorite TV shows…Saul Good! ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5742.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5742.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f71979 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5742.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5742", + "Date": "02/25/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Artificial intelligence first reshaped computer science and software development. Marketing seemed always next. The discipline runs on data, repeatable processes, pattern recognition, and optimization loops — ideal terrain for machine execution. The center of gravity is already moving. What began as context engineering and better prompting is evolving into multi-agent workflows and agentic engineering. Instead of asking a single model for outputs, we design systems of specialized agents that collaborate, verify, adapt, and execute toward defined objectives. We are no longer primarily prompt writers. We are orchestrators — coordinating teams of digital workers, assigning responsibilities, managing handoffs, setting constraints, and aligning outcomes to strategy. Success becomes less about crafting the perfect input and more about building reliable, repeatable, goal-driven operations. https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/mark-ritson-the-great-stay-and-the-quiet-collapse-of-the-marketing-job-market ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5743.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5743.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a8f8ff8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5743.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5743", + "Date": "02/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "jimmy_ba_100X.jpg", + "Summary": "A founder at xAI says we’re about to see 100× productivity gains from recursive self-improvement — AI writing and upgrading itself — and that it’s happening this year. I’ve felt this wave building since GPT-2 dropped way back in 2019 and made the trajectory obvious. Now it’s arriving. And even after watching it for years, I’m not sure I or any of us are truly prepared for what that actually means. We're gonna find out. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5744.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5744.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b43f36f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5744.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5744", + "Date": "02/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "EU_Eurobonds.jpg", + "Summary": "The U.S. is famous for kicking the can down the road — but the EU is way better at it. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5745.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5745.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb58d5f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5745.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5745", + "Date": "03/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "no_more_code.jpg", + "Summary": "Could 90% of software coding jobs disappear inside five-years? Yes and here's what all those coders can do to leverage their expertise. Software code was originally created as a human-readable abstraction layer that ultimately compiles down to binary machine instructions. If AI increasingly operates at the machine-code or system-architecture level, it could compress or even bypass much of today’s traditional coding workflow. That doesn’t necessarily mean “no code,” but it could mean far fewer humans writing it directly. As AI agents gain deeper system access—designing software, provisioning infrastructure, deploying to cloud environments, and managing operations end-to-end—the role of the developer shifts from syntax author to intent architect. If human emulation and autonomous agent stacks continue advancing at their current pace, the interface may simply become: describe the outcome, and the system executes. Is that five years away? Three? Possibly less. What to do instead? Build specialized agents that others can rent. I have a few examples of agents I might rent in this working doc I created for me. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing Then, once an agent is created, use this guide I created to get your agent found in the AI era so the right person and the right time can rent it. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing Via https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2021805528309956905", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5746.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5746.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f5f2207 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5746.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5746", + "Date": "03/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "after_tax_margins.png", + "Summary": "Corporate profit margins sit at 16%, the highest level in modern history.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5747.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5747.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1fda674 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5747.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5747", + "Date": "03/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["Future Map", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "after_tax_margins.png", + "Summary": "Stablecoins moved $12 trillion in volume last year; Visa moved $17 trillion. I don't consider stablecoins the same as cryptocurrencies because while they use the same infrastructure (blockchains), they are denominated in the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins don't just drop the transaction costs of money and make it move faster, they allow anyone, anywhere with an Internet connection to onboard to this economic layer. They introduce more transparency and can become an economic lifeline in countries plagyues by hyperinflation, capital controls, and corrupt financial institutions. Ultimately, stablecoins become the Trojan horse for reinforcing U.S. dollar supremacy, as the U.S. is leading the innovation behind them. https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/the-whatsapp-moment-for-money-is", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5750.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5750.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..abd2b34 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5750.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5750", + "Date": "02/21/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "If intelligence becomes free, then the intelligence each of us has gained through education and experience becomes devalued, and probably a lot. To create it into an asset, transform that intelligence into an AI agent that you rent out for others to use. This article is an excellent primer on building agents. https://x.com/Flynnjamm/status/2023465136204419096 I've added it as a link off my my working document about the skills and jobs of a future with AI dominating. That is here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5756.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5756.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c65146c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5756.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5756", + "Date": "02/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The tsunami coming from human-level AI? It is already here and gaining speed and strength. We see it in job declines in the tech sector and marketing. We see it in people and companies using AI who are sprinting ahead in prouctivity and capabilities. It will overtake all sectors, white collar and blue collar. It is inevitable because AI fundamentally saves money and there is stampede by everyone to save money in an economy that is stagnant beset by challenges that have been building for decades. Its inevitability is also being forced by China and their relentless progress; the U.S. is in an existential crisis to stay ahead of China, lest they get the upper hand and use it against us. We cannot escape this tsunami. But we can ride it and navigate it to reach the other side, where our next economic supercycle is waiting. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5757.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5757.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6be6df0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5757.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5757", + "Date": "02/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "egoscale.jpg", + "Summary": "Boom! A major robotics paper just showed something big: if you record enough human hand movements (from simple daily tasks), extract the motion automatically, and train on it at scale, robot dexterity improves in a predictable way. In plain terms — more structured human motion data = smarter robot hands. This is monumental for complex, high-precision work like sewing, apparel production, repairs, and other tasks that require fine finger control. Instead of programming every movement, we may be able to scale dexterity the way we scaled language models — by learning from massive amounts of human behavior. via https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/2026709304984875202", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5758.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5758.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5946277 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5758.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5758", + "Date": "02/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "dorsey_jobs_cut.jpg", + "Summary": "Companies have a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to deliver value for their investment, and as AI is a massive productive booster, they are and will do that. There is no fiduciary duty to employees. So much more of this to come. What will people do? The paradigm of relyign on experience, education and intelligence is rapdily ending. Move to owning assets that produce an income. Transfer your expertise into AI agents that people can hire, because they won't hire you.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5760.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5760.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..70421ee --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5760.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5759", + "Date": "02/28/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "transaction_speed.jpg", + "Summary": "What is meant by this? AI agents will transact amongst each others for services on behalf of humans. These transactions will exceed human financial transactions in count and value. AI agents need to settle transactions quickly, securely, cheaply, so they will need blockchains that can handle this volume. But, now layer on human transactions that will also migrate to blockchains and that amplifies the need even more. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5763.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5763.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ee0bbf0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5763.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5763", + "Date": "03/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The surveilled state is inevitable, and already here. Shock and dismay at OpenAI and support for Anthropic won't change the outcome. I have a section in my main prediction document titled Surveilled State, listing what is already in play that is quite extensive, yet people are seemingly unaware. It will only increase because of resource constraints and cost pressures. As our challenges worsen, the only way out is through a future controlled by compute, which will gives us intelligence to solve our challenges, give us better healthcare, food, energy, leisure, entertainment and security. That security comes at a price - more surveillance - which people will accept because they want to maintain the lifestyle that we have become accustomed to in the U.S. There is no opting out. Try and you will be surveilled even more because the assumption is you are up to nefarious actions. More about what I have written about the surveilled state in this google doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fqTPn6r5qSbTJ6AO1_0FnsyeDqmHffwgYn8_rAhLzr4/edit?usp=sharing https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/02/chatgpt-uninstalls-surged-by-295-after-dod-deal/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5768.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5768.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..20441cf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5768.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5768", + "Date": "02/07/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "wage_growth_income_groups.jpg", + "Summary": "The widely known narrative we’re stuck in is a K-shaped economy, where the top 10% in wealth and income are doing well while the bottom 90% are struggling. I keep searching for data that might change this view, but it is not forthcoming. Here is another unfortunate chart reinforcing the narrative. What changes it? Broadly, fiscal and monetary policy shifts (which don’t appear to be happening), but even more importantly, each of us pushing into the future—embracing new technologies, business models, and growth paradigms. The problem is that most of us are clinging to the past rather than embracing the future. That keeps us stuck in legacy thinking, processes, and systems that have led us to the difficult states across economics, politics, geopolitics and the envrionment in which we find ourselves. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5769.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5769.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ebdd956 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5769.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5769", + "Date": "03/06/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "blackrock.jpg", + "Summary": "There is currently a lot of news about cracks forming in the private credit markets. This has been anticipated for some time. I started reading more than three years ago from experienced investors that private credit would eventually have its reckoning. What might the effects be? It likely won’t come anywhere near the housing crash of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. The sector is much smaller and largely confined to Wall Street rather than Main Street. However, the downstream effects could still matter—particularly if corporate borrowers funded by private credit begin to falter, leading to layoffs, and if losses reduce spending among the top 10%, which is currently carrying much of the economy. The broader issue is the underlying strain across the economy, which makes small tipping points like private credit sector woes — the proverbial grain on the sandpile — more consequential. https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2029953260052717603", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5770.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5770.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2094dd1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5770.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5770", + "Date": "03/07/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a short but important read. So much is happening just under the surface, but it will explode in the open. The problem is all of this hitting at once, which looks increasingly likely. My biggest concerns? AI automating white collar and blue collar jobs away; open source models from China that massively disrupt the value of the U.S. technology complex (because its the only sector keeping us above water at present); the elimination of AI safety guardrails, introducing untold downstream effects, especially across cybersecurity. This article talks about companies with no human employees, but the concern is with all the disruption, there won't be customers to buy their products. We will get through this, but it will hurt. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/when-ai-safety-collapsed-agents-took ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5771.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5771.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..252af95 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5771.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5771", + "Date": "03/07/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "healthcare_employment.jpg", + "Summary": "If you exclude healthcare employment, the U.S. has actually lost jobs since 2024. And our healthcare system is absolutely unsustainable and will face a reckoning ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5772.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5772.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..69008c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5772.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5772", + "Date": "03/07/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "weekly_biz_formation.jpg", + "Summary": "Weekly business formation is exploding higher. New business formation is generally considered a leading economic indicator, though it’s not perfectly predictive. It often signals future economic momentum, especially around employment, innovation, and investment. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5775.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5775.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..95dd265 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5775.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5775", + "Date": "03/9/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "More evidence of corporate sovereigns emerging. The White House released a cyber strategy document, which mentions a house bill that would authorize cyber letters of marque, last used in 1812. This is the historical analogy. In the 1700s–1800s. Governments issued letters of marque to private ships. This authorized them to, attack enemy ships, seize cargo, disrupt trade. These private ships were called privateers. They were not pirates because they had government authorization. The U.S. Constitution still references this power: Congress shall have power to grant letters of marque and reprisal. The last time the U.S. used them was the War of 1812. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5778.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5778.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d02fd51 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5778.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5778", + "Date": "03/12/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "real_retal_sales_2026_03.jpg", + "Summary": "Real retail sales continue below trend. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5780.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5780.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce490c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5780.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5780", + "Date": "03/13/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This is a breakthrough that signals where technology is heading—and something all of us should begin preparing for today. This breakthrough is accelerating the Three Ds of technology — democratization, decentralization, and deplatforming. It shifts the training of AI models away from massive centralized systems and the control of large technology companies, placing that capability into the hands of individuals operating their own hardware. In this new paradigm, anyone can take the data they possess and train AI systems locally, turning personal data and domain expertise into intelligent systems. It may still sound technical today, but technology is rapidly advancing toward a point where anyone will be able to do this themselves. The key step now is to begin identifying the proprietary data you possess—or the data you create through your work—that could form the foundation for training your own AI systems to perform valuable tasks that others would pay for. https://x.com/_philschmid/status/2031355349526012050", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5784.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5784.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..31b69c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5784.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5784", + "Date": "03/16/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "comp_vs_gross_domestic_income.jpg", + "Summary": "U.S.employee compensation as a percentage of gross domestic income. This is a combination of changing tax policies to favor upper income, technology that shifted productivity and income gains to shareholders, which is largely comprised of upper income classes, deindustrialization of America that shifted production overseas to cheaper markets, where, again, gains accrue to companies and not employees. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5785.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5785.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49d2169 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5785.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5785", + "Date": "03/16/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "comp_vs_gross_domestic_income.jpg", + "Summary": "More than half of NYT readers preferred AI-generated prose to human writing in a blind test. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/09/business/ai-writing-quiz.html ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5790.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5790.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2128372 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5790.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5790", + "Date": "03/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "corporate_earnings_revisions_up.jpg", + "Summary": "Global growth expectations are improving, reflected in upward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts. This aligns with what we should expect: corporations are entering a structural productivity boom driven by AI and emerging technologies. And we are still in the early innings. But this shift is not neutral. For large enterprises, AI is primarily a labor substitution engine. Knowledge work, once considered defensible, is now directly exposed. The result will be sustained workforce compression as AI systems absorb functions previously performed by employees. For individuals, however, the equation flips. Entrepreneurs, small businesses, and asset-owning households stand to benefit disproportionately. AI dramatically lowers the cost of execution, expands capability, and unlocks latent capacity...turning small operators into highly leveraged producers. This is not just a technology cycle. It is a structural reallocation of economic advantage. The key question is simple: are you positioned as labor being replaced, or as capital being amplified? ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5791.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5791.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03415aa --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5791.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5791", + "Date": "03/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "satellites.jpg", + "Summary": "Satellite launches. What could go wrong? ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5794.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5794.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..93d16bc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5794.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5794", + "Date": "03/22/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "sell_america.jpg", + "Summary": "Despite U.S. challenges, we have and will continue to remain the country to invest in and in which to do business. This is a fascinating 55-year look at signs of Sell America, and it has been decreasing. What disrupts this is if countries begin forcing their citizens to repatriate assets back to their countries because of mounting financial challenges, which faces most countries. This does not mean our investment markets keep going up. Will we see continued appreciation, sideways action for years if not a decade, or a deep bear market? No one knows. Anything is possible. The challenge is to be prepared for any path. But one thing is clear. The U.S. is the place to be, for now and the rest of this century", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5799.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5799.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f4983c4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5799.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5799", + "Date": "02/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "redbook_202603.jpg", + "Summary": "There is plenty of doom and gloom news circulating to capture our attention, but there is also a lot of positive activity that tends to get drowned out—here’s one data point that reflects that. The Redbook Index tracks weekly same-store sales growth at major retail chains, making it a faster, more real-time read on consumer spending than the official monthly retail sales report, which captures the broader economy. Because it’s reported weekly and focuses on comparable stores, Redbook tends to lead retail sales, often signaling shifts in demand 1–2 months earlier. In the current chart, Redbook has been trending higher and is slightly outperforming retail sales, suggesting that consumer spending is stabilizing or modestly improving in the near term, and that upcoming retail sales data will likely reflect that same gradual strength rather than a sharp downturn.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5800.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5800.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e753eaf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5800.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5800", + "Date": "03/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "1000_agents.jpg", + "Summary": "The takeaway—regardless of your technical background—is simple: start collecting data on everything you do and build proprietary datasets, because very soon you’ll be able to deploy AI agents to analyze it and surface patterns and insights. Here’s why: an open-source framework called Autoresearch was just released and is already exploding in usage. We’re not talking about a few agents anymore—I’ve seen hundreds running simultaneously on a single problem, communicating and improving each other’s performance. Now we’re seeing experiments pushing toward one million concurrent agents. This is recursive self-improvement going vertical—the exact dynamic we’ve been talking about for years—and it’s now becoming real. AI systems improving themselves, no longer bottlenecked by human throughput. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5802.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5802.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..074aecf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5802.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5802", + "Date": "03/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Activity Tracker"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Jason Eccles from Bending Branches sent out an email to friends offering a 50% discount on custom engraved decorative paddles. Use Code CUSTOM50 at checkout (limited to one time use per email address).", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5803.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5803.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2304e29 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5803.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5803", + "Date": "03/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["Activity Tracker", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "On the software architecture, engineering, and coding side, AI compresses what used to be six months of work—much of it spent learning—into about a week, at least in my experience. It’s an incredible productivity unlock. But it also means I’m taking on far more projects in parallel than I normally would, so it still feels like things take just as long. The difference is that, as an entrepreneur, I can now operate across many initiatives at once, dramatically increasing my surface area for potential success. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5804.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5804.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8dc5c8d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5804.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5803", + "Date": "03/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["Activity Tracker", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "AI agents just massively increase the surface area for hacking. Agents we spin up to do things for us, but also agents spun up to hack us. We have to be so careful and thoughtful in our security practices and efforts. The LiteLLM expolit this week really brought it home for me and catalyzed me into being far more practive. I was not affected. I have a working SOP on online security that I've had for years and slowly add to it as I learn (or get hacked myself). This week I added a comprehensive policy on AI security. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5805.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5805.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..707e1fa --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5805.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5805", + "Date": "03/27/2026", + "HubTags": ["Activity Tracker", "External Platform Posts", "tag3"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Where I use to buy beef from ranchers, I almost never do because drought has reduced local supply. I now just order it mostly from Whole Foods Market, which works great and is convenient, but for our dog food and pet food products, not ideal. Good meat and comes from responsible ranches, but ground round is just from the round cut, not a whole beef, which is what I use to do. Makes for better quality to have meat ground and mixed from the whole cow.\n I never stop thinking about coming transitions in our 4th Turning (Howe) era. If you want to be truly positioned right, its owning differentiated assets that spin off income which are scarce and cannot be copied. You are the best in your caegory, you are the cheapest, or both is awesome. People would truly miss you if you went away. It is hard to build businesses that truly command this. Competition and substitution can almost never be taken out of the equation. Maybe impossible. WHat about SpaceX - they are truly in their own category, but others could - with difficulty - step in to take their place if they went away. So even with their seeminly insurmountable lead, they could be replaced. How about Palantir. Maybe, but still, the could be replaced - with great difficulty - because there is always something new and better up and coming. \n Google. What an enshitified company. They make tons of money and I already pay for their stuff and still, every week, they blast me in google docs about buying more. It would be hard to move away from them but I am steadily doing just that. Docs can be come md that I host on my own server, sheets could move to libre office. Email could move to my own domain and server. I would never be able to fully get away from them, but can move a lot. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5807.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5807.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..150a63d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5807.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5805", + "Date": "03/28/2026", + "HubTags": ["Activity Tracker", "External Platform Posts"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I came across JASONata recently and understood it better. It is really powerful for creating AI-native, data-defined systems, where you decouple data from databases, code and front end, which is expensive and locks you in, to where the data has policies, permissions defined with it, so that AI as the front end can build the front ends that the user desires, accessing the data, with lightweight middle layer codes. I added this to my working paper AI‑Native Data‑Defined Systems https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YruyY2anFoBRVHTLEdqGhx-CKPHtctMUtkcLs6GBQQY/edit?usp=sharing So much credible but polar opposite predictions on the future. The Iran war is causing serious harm to the global commodities economies, but the U.S. is fine because we produce most of it domestically. Global liquidity is under sever pressure, which if it breaks, will cause global pain in financial markets. The tech infrastreucture boom and emerging technologies are creating tremendous innovation and breakthroughs. But they are causing significan job dislocation. How do we threat this needle? Who is right? WHat is the proverial grain that starts the avalanche? Does it even exist? WIll be havve localized pain in sectors and countries, but the system is anti-fragile enough to absorb it and limit contagion? I keep going back to the last two major dislocations - COVID and Russia/Ukraine war. COVID cause a brief steep recession, then the fed pupming the economy with free money plus a reordering of spend produced a hit economy. The resulting delfation from rising rates produced some localize pain in sectors, but was ameliorated ny the top 10% spending, and rising rates gave the top 10% free money on their parked cash. Dynamics now resembled that last period - rates still high to funnel free money to the top 10%, investment markets under pressure but maybe not enough to cause the top 10% to stop spending. The Iran war is causing a reordering of supply flows around Hormuz - shor-term pain for probably long-term stability as nations re-route away from that choke point. Cuba could become an investment boom for the U.S. as we absorb that foe into the north american system. Venezulela was a successful coup that is reordering South America and removing a lot of illicit drug money that everyone, including Iran, had their hands in. I think we (the U.S.) muddle through the Iran war and come out resuming our march forward without much blowback. Burt, around the edges, job market softening, inflation creeping up. The real pain still starts later this decade as jobs get reordered from AI, healthcare bites, soverign debt becomes unmanageable, state-adjacent spending really has to slow down. and expenses on the middle class finally break it. The savior is new technologies as our economy orients around it, with robotics coming online and the rise of coporate soveriengs to save us (or help us get through). Those companies that align to new technpologies will probably do fine, but those that do not will lose and lose big. Retirees are in real trouble and anyone nearing retirement beause no state-funded retirement programs will be available because they are already broke. That slack will get picked up by corporate soveriegns who use compute to provide healthcare and services. We will muddle through with localized pain in sectors, while other sectors boom to even out the slack. This is the narrative I am following. Pain, but localized successes. Rates will come way down at some point as pain increases all around. Sell the best product, the cheapest, that is scarce, with a strong competitive moat, providing the least amount of friction. That will win. Easier said than done. THis is the narrative I am following right now. It is really more of the same but at some point, things break hard and a reordering takes effect. Survive through the same right now, but position for the reordering. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5810.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5810.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..447936f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5810.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5810", + "Date": "03/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "10_yr.jpg", + "Summary": "Really interesting diconnect in rates. The Fed controls short rates, which should dictate long rates, but that is no longer the case. Long rates are dicated by investors in U.S. debt, and they are indicating they want a higher yield to buy the debt. It is probably a combination of things, including concern about rising U.S. debt levels, competition from other investments, lower demand. January 2025 is when the divergence occured. Higher rates mean higher business and consumer interest rates. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5811.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5811.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4d502a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5811.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5811", + "Date": "03/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "freight_surging.png", + "Summary": "It is clear the immense dislocaiton coming in jobs due to exponential technologoes. That view is now mainstream. But how do manage this transition? This link provides a sobering look and offers a plan for universal basic income, packaging basic services for people in cost-effective ways, followed by immense dissinflation as productivity skyrockets and costs decrease dramatically. This is not decades away. This is the next decade, beginning now. Already there are major layoffs in the corporate sector; technology companies with immense wealth leading this transition are already beginning to shoulder expenses, like paying for power build out for their data centers. Government is bankrupt, paralyzed by regulations and legacy interests trying to hold on to what is inevitably slipping away. It will be up to the private sector, especially the large corporates. The return of the corporate soverign is at hand. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/from-ubi-to-uhi-in-3-steps?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=6sj7", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5812.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5812.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8932ce1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5812.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5810", + "Date": "03/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "43% of imports are free of any tarrif. INcludes energy, pharma, electrical equipment, machinery, consumer electronics, previous metals, aircraft and part. The industries with the best lobbiests are winning. Flows in foreign direct imports since 2025 have slowed. So tarrifs are only selectively applied and investments from abroad are still not forthcoming. Via Bloomberg. MDX is a format I learned that provides more semantic structure to markdown (md) documents. So you write in mardown, convert to mdx, then convert to JSON, then JSON chunks with CIS metadata. THat is the process for creating highly structure content for AI. Think of building an app that does this coupled with a dedicated AI agent tuned for this that as you write, can provide suggestions for structuring. When you are done, it converts the whole pipeline, and even compares it to other content libraries to improve it right from the start. This is a tool I could see deploying for nSIG, allowing people to use it to create PIDs from the start. Super interesting LI ask: Looking to acquire a business in the $5–20M EV range with a very specific profile: 1) Exceptional product or service at the core 2) Premium positioning with a high-ticket, less price-sensitive customer 3) Strong experiential element or opportunity to build one (not purely transactional) 4) Clear potential to scale through content and brand, not just performance marketing 5) Industry-agnostic, across both products and services. 6) Most interested in businesses where the product is strong but the brand, content, and experience layer are underbuilt. Examples of the type of businesses we’re looking at: - High-end outdoor or lifestyle products - Premium home or consumer goods - Experience-driven businesses (travel, events, hospitality) - Niche, enthusiast-driven categories with strong identity My response: With long investment horizons, I am seeing people push towards acquiring true scarcity and future access shifts. As travel gets faster (supersonic, sub orbital) and autonomous driving and air taxis proliferate (the transportation compression), remote geography gets repriced because it now becomes accessible. Here, product is strong, but brand and experience layers are underbuilt.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5813.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5813.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..110389c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5813.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5813", + "Date": "03/30/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Here a study out of Tufts that looks at the AI-driven job loss across occupation, indstry and metropilitan area. Clearly, the white collar, technology belts are most at risk. They are the rust-belts of the last centruy U.S. that saw manufacturing jobs evaporate. Huge disslocation across specific knowledge-based sectors. It is no longer intelligence or education or know-how, it is ownership of income producing assets that others will rent. https://phys.org/news/2026-03-wired-belts-rust-jobs-vulnerable.html", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5815.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5815.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..042f0a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5815.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5815", + "Date": "03/31/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This came across my desk: Sid Sijbrandij ran out of standard care treatments for bone cancer, so he started creating treatments for himself. This site details his journey and the results of the treatments so far. Sijbrandij's cancer is now in remission. He is now working with companies to scale his approach for others. Last week is was about guy in Australia that used Alphafold and Claude I think and genetic testing he paid for to design a cancer treatment for his dog and it worked. Each one of us can use these tools to figure out out health and heal diseases on your own. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5818.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5818.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..983f596 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5818.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5818", + "Date": "04/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "CRE_decades.jpg", + "Summary": "A fascinating multi-decade view on commercial real estate property values. Clearly, recessionary periods for the industry take 10-20 years to recover to previous values. We're not only at the start of another 10-20 year recovery period, but we may not even recover in the traditional sense because of the magnitude of societal and structural changes happening right now and over the next decade. The transportation compression alone (rise of autonomous vehicles, air taxis, supersonic and sub-orbital transportation) will change the real estate environment quite dramatically, as people can live where they want and commute far easier via autonomous methods. Layer on more connectivity (broadband via terrestrial, satellite), more economic stress and environmental stress (both that will curtail spending on office real estate and transportation), and the real estate industry will look quite different. How that impacts valuations will be more driven by local conditions.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5820.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5820.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..910bf28 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5820.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5820", + "Date": "04/04/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "freight_surging.png", + "Summary": "Freight tends to be a leading indicator of industrial and manufacturing activity. Looking at this chart, demand is surging quite a bit. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5823.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5823.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a69fcf2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5823.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5823", + "Date": "04/11/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "There is a big shift recently about how to manage the automation of jobs in the future. We've all known for several years that AI will significantly disrupt white collar and belue collar jobs at all levels. Now, many are becoming more alarmed and starting to propose solutions. Here's a recent paper put out by OpenAI discussing things like affordable access to AI so no one gets left behind, sharing AI-wealth more broadly, worker protections and more. We will truly see some radical things put in place to help people manage the transition, starting in the next few years. https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/06/openais-vision-for-the-ai-economy-public-wealth-funds-robot-taxes-and-a-four-day-work-week/ ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5824.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5824.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3f494f3 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5824.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5824", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Superintelligence is finally here—and it’s rattling people. Anthropic’s new model isn’t being released to the public (at least not yet). Instead, it is being directed toward an initiative to identify and patch security vulnerabilities across the internet. At the same time, the U.S. government has reportedly convened financial institutions to coordinate using this model to shore up their own defenses. Even the name—Mythos—sounds like something rising out of the abyss. Here’s the issue: other frontier models are reaching similar levels of capability. How long before one is released publicly to gain a competitive edge? These systems are powerful enough to be used offensively—able to discover and exploit vulnerabilities faster than organizations can patch them. What can you do right now: (1) Use strong passwords, MFA, and especially passkeys everywhere possible; (2) Assume breach is inevitable—limit the blast radius. Separate systems and identities: Personal email, Shopping/accounts email, Work email, Financial accounts. Lock down access to critical accounts and data. (3) Do not give AI direct access to your core systems (email, OS, accounts). Instead, use intermediary tools that fetch data, pass it to the AI, and return results. Bottom line: operate as if your systems will be tested and design them so failure is contained. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/a-disruptive-moment-in-time", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5825.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5825.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53d7e1a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5825.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5825", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Compute crunch does not do even come close to what is going on. The demand for intelligence via AI is surging exponentially right now. That will not stop - I think at least through the end of this decade if not for the next 10 years. My concern is that those who can pay for compute - intelligence - will win out, while those that cannot will lose. Intelligene, experience, education are no longer the competitive advantage, especially when AI is better. The advantage comes to owning assets, like compute, that others will pay to use. Shift to owning assets - not gaining job experience or education. https://martinalderson.com/posts/what-next-for-the-compute-crunch/?utm_source=tldrnewsletter", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5826.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5826.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..efc9108 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5826.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5826", + "Date": "04/11/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "consumption_spend_real_2026_04.jpg", + "Summary": "Services holding up. Durable goods (cars, appliances, machinery) and non-durable goods (food, beverages, clothing, paper goods) have leveled off or even showing downturns. The former appears to have meet with pre-COVID trend and later is below trend.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5827.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5827.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..16982bc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5827.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5827", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "pce_inflation_2026_04.jpg", + "Summary": "No secret that inflation is jumping right now due to oil and energy. The narrative has been and will be - for the next 10-years - higher inflation, maybe periods of really high inflation. The world is resource constrained and needs to shift to an electrified future, which requires a lot of resources and energy to make that shift. Hence, inflation. But I am open to an alternative narrative emerging where we could see lower inflation. Why? Because the costs could be borne by large corporations. Plus, we may be able to see actual deflation due to AI that will make things cheaper. I am prepared for inflation, but open to it being more muted. ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5828.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5828.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f13b709 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5828.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5828", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts", + "Future Map" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Do you want your own Jarvis? Here it is. This repo is incredible and free. But I would not rush to do this. This is first generation of our own personal Jarvis, so it will be buggy. Second, this violates a very important security rule - never, ever give AI direct access to accounts. Instead, there needs to be a tool layer in between. What if the agent starts spaming all of your contacts? That is why you create tool layers to help limit the damage. Finally, this is a unified system. How do you debug it? What if a better component comes along. How do you integrate it? An effective Jarvis for each of us will be one that comprises many agents, each with a very specific task that we can sawp out when a better ones emerges or debug it or monitor its actions, and which does not have direct access to our accounts. Still, this repo blows me away. https://github.com/garrytan/gbrain ", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5829.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5829.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d516529 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5829.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5829", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": [ + "External Platform Posts" + ], + "Contacts": "", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This from Seth Godin is awesome: Creating the conditions for magic. If you’re hoping for this meeting or this performance or this engagement to produce something extraordinary, why are you setting it up as if it’s ordinary? The hard work of a brainstorming session, a pitch collaboration or a negotiation happens long before most people begin. We hire architects to design expensive buildings, but we design expensive human interactions as an afterthought. If it doesn’t feel like you’re putting a lot of effort into creating the conditions for magic, you’re probably not creating those conditions. We want to create conditions for magic in this event, so lets design an awesome funnel that pulls people in and helps setup an incredible event.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5830.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5830.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cacfb99 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5830.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5830", + "Date": "04/12/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Sure, this may be a clear action to reduce reliance on U.S. tech, but it brings to mind a much larger issue all of us have to fix for ourselves. Our technology-enabled world is becoming fragile because it is centralized among fewer and fewer providers. Take one down and 1/3 of the Internet breaks. We've seen this already in the last year. Each of us has to take control of our own infrastructure, installing our own servers managed by us, our own systems, building our own software (which we can do with AI). Incredible tools have emerged that deplatform, decentralize and democratize our ability to do this. And, it is a lot cheaper. I started dumping cloud services in 2024 and rebuilding into my own physical and digital infrastructure and have saved a lot of money. I also have control of my data and can control the security I put in place to protect it. https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/10/france-to-ditch-windows-for-linux-to-reduce-reliance-on-us-tech/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5836.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5836.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3049f5a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5836.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5836", + "Date": "04/17/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "We've had a wonderful period the last 3-years to access incredible intelligence for the price of a streaming subscription. But that is ending because the capabilities of this intelligence have exploded, along with the demand, all of which requires lots more chips and power, which we lack. It is not just prices that are rising, but now that intelligence is being limited to who can pay for it. For most, however, the intelligence we need is probably good enough. But the shift will require that we move off of cloud platforms onto our own compute infrastructure with open source models. Thankfully, we're just starting to see an explosion in open source, decentralized AI so that the majority of us do not get shut out from using AI. https://tomtunguz.com/ai-compute-crisis-2026 ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5837.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5837.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ffa7bdc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5837.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5837", + "Date": "04/17/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "business_formation_2026_04.jpg", + "Summary": "There are two seemingly diametrically opposed views emerging: (1) Emerging technologies will explode jobs: (2) Emerging technologies will shrink jobs. Really smart and thoughtful people make great arguments for both. Who is right? Both, actually. Emerging technologies underpinned by AI will eliminate employees. Rather than having 1,000, 100 or 10 employees, companies can operate with far fewer. But it will explode business ownership, because emerging technologies will allow people to form new companies selling new products and services that were not possible before. So, employment way down, business ownership way up, which could means a lot more companies that are a lot smaller. Employees will become business owners. Data is thus far confirming this view. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5838.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5838.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..22bc460 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5838.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5838", + "Date": "04/17/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "movei_quality.jpg", + "Summary": "In 2023 people predicted that by 2025, we would create our own movies. Now its 2028, so a bit behind, but there is no question that it is coming. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5841.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5841.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b1313cc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5841.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5841", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "healthcare_social_job-growth.jpg", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "Healthcare and social assistance jobs have grown, while other indistries collectively have shed jobs. This can't and won't hold because these two industries are dependent on government funding, which is bankrupt and will have to adjust downard at some point. Jobs and employment will contract substantially, but what saves us is new technologies emerging to boost business ownership and create new products and services we've never had before. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5842.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5842.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..78a53d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5842.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5842", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": " AI agents are in a chaotic world right now - a wild west if you will. We are building them and figuring it out as we go how to build them, the steps, components, documents, tools, governnance, security and permissions they need. The learning curve across the landscape is really steep nd hard to keep up. But eventually - 3+ years or so away - all of this will be abstracted away so anyone can build them, rather than struggling with all the minutae. So, do we just wait till agentic construction gets abstracted away? I would say that depends. If building right now leads to competitive advantage that is defensible over time, then don't wait. https://danielmiessler.com/blog/we-are-all-building-single-digital-assistant " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5843.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5843.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c6eb072 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5843.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5843", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "org_around_AI.jpg", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "Great data, but some context to qualify it. Startups are not beset with legacy processes, costs and employment structures. They can easily choose to organize around AI (or reorg if they are still young). Harder for legacy businesses to do this. Not saying legacy should not do this (they should, absolutely), but results may take longer and not be as smooth. https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2045283793364299899 " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5844.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5844.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..38e360f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5844.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5844", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "foreign_flows.png", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "The U.S. is still the place to invest - has been and will be for decades, if not the rest of this century. Here we see foreign flows into U.S. assets. Equities and corporate debt continue to outpace. Does not mean we won't have challenges. It means this is the place to start a business and the world's money knows it." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5845.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5845.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a466cb2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5845.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5845", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "lme_down.jpg", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "Add this to the positive economic data category. Resutructuring of debt (liability management exercise - LME) is trending back down. Parts of the economy are doing very well and in aggregate, things look steady. Not great, but not terrible. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5846.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5846.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..53c7bca --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5846.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5846", + "Date": "04/18/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "jp_M_earnings_growth.png", + "Summary": "", + "Notes": "J.P. Morgan projects that the S&P 500 will see earnings growth of between 13% and 15% over the next two years, in aggregate. Looking at this chart, we see technology and materials exceeding that significantly. But even 10-15% is substantial in an economy with overall anemic GDP growth. Driving these outperformers is technology investments driving productivity and new products and services. What we need to see is that technology gets adopted across the economy so that all sectors get in on this growth. The only thing that will save us from our challenges across wealth inequality, climate change, political polarization and resource constraints is innovation that pulls us forward and helps solve our challenges. But so many parts of the economy are stuck in the past, unwilling to move and drowning in legacy." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5848.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5848.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e9d26b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5848.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5848", + "Date": "04/19/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "empire_man_2026_04.jpg", + "Summary": "Uptrends in U.S. manufacturing growth for New York continues. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5850.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5850.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3acb709 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5850.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5850", + "Date": "04/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "education_declines.jpg", + "Summary": "Student enrollment declines by 2031 by state. The primary and secondary order effects will be so numerous, don't know where to start. https://bellwether.org/publications/how-student-enrollment-declines-are-affecting-education-budgets/?activeTab=2", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5851.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5851.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d1635d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5851.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5851", + "Date": "04/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "gap_sentimnet_2p.jpg", + "Summary": "This gap is easily explained. THe top 10% (they own the majority of investment assets) are doing very well as corporations get more and more efficient and extend their returns and equity gains to owners. But the workers (the bottom 90%) are struggling and not participating in this. This gap is becoming worisome by the top 10% and there is finally some early consensus that this has to be rectified. That is why I am optimistic for the future for the U.S., because while short-to-medium term if will be rough, we will figure it out. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5852.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5852.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..eeb27e0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5852.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5852", + "Date": "04/20/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "corp-soverign-starlink.jpg", + "Summary": "More evidence of my thesis about the resurection of corporate soverigns. Consider the attached, where a single company controlled by a single person can easily change the course of war at the flip of a switch.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5854.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5854.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a00ad6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5854.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5854", + "Date": "04/21/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "datcanters-mega.jpg", + "Summary": "Fascinating analysis on data center spend versus other megaprojects in context of GDP. Nothing comes even close to Railroads. Will data center expansion close the gap? We certainly need it as demand is dramatically outstripping supply at present.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5857.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5857.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..236e058 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5857.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5857", + "Date": "04/23/2026", + "HubTags": "External Platform Posts", + "Contacts": "contact1", + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "From solar panel supplier I use - in LA warehouse: Trina black frame dual glass: 435w/445w: $0.245/w JA 455w bifacial black frame: $0.245/w; Znshine full black bifacial 450w: $0.23/w; HT full black bifacial 455w:$0.22/w Canadian 585w bifacial dual glass: $0.22/w; Trina 585w/610w bifacial dual glass: $0.22/w; Jinko 460w/465w/470w:$0.245/w", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5858.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5858.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2334024 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5858.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5858", + "Date": "04/23/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Building agents is quite technical at present; eventually this will abstract away so it becomes less technical. This article covers marketing engineers - new roles needed to build and manage agents. This engineer role will be critical across functions in a company. linkedin.com/posts/therealmarvin_marketing-engineers-are-the-hire-of-2026-activity-7450397673012215808-HjPg ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5860.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5860.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..01b01a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5860.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5860", + "Date": "04/24/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1","contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "real_retail_sales_2026_04.jpg", + "Summary": "U.S. real retail sales vs. pre-pandemic trend. After adjusting for price increases, it continues below long-term trend. I project this to be the norm the remainder of this decade.", + "Notes": "" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5862.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5862.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1d33d0b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5862.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5862", + "Date": "04/25/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Automation in product development is moving from the digital world into the physical, driven by AI. Writing code with AI is already standard—now that capability is extending into hardware and real-world prototyping. AI systems can rapidly design, build, and iterate physical products at speeds and scale far beyond human teams. The next phase is full-cycle automation: humans collaborate with AI on ideas, then hand off to systems that prototype, test, and manufacture autonomously. Distribution is automating, too, with autonomous tansportation that includes door delivery using robots in neightborhoods. https://www.corememory.com/p/a-hundred-robots-are-running-a-bio-medra-michelle-lee ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5864.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5864.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0ed581 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5864.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5864", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "foreign_capitol_overtakes_us_treas.jpg", + "Summary": "For the first time, foreign private investors hold more US Treasuries than foreign central banks. This makes the treasury market more sensitive to the return expectations of private capital, which is more price sensitive. This means that private capital can demand higher rates from the U.S. government in order to hold its debt, which gets reflected in rates that businesses and consumers pay for debt like business loans and mortgages. Via https://www.apollo.com/wealth/the-daily-spark/foreign-private-capital-has-overtaken-central-banks-in-the-treasury-market", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5865.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5865.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6e5ee64 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5865.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5865", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Great charts in this short article. The upshot is that the world's value - relfected in earnings - is based on compute. As everything is becoming electrified and is being produced and controled by software and AI, values and earnings are being driven by compute. A company the switches to using compute is able to drive more value and earnings than companies which do not. To keep up, it is not just companies, but consumers must also migrate their lives to compute, because it will drive more income and reduce costs. Compute will also help solve challenges - environmental, health, resource constraints, wealth inequality. The entire value chain of the future is becoming based on compute. https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-software-ate-the", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5866.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5866.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e062793 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5866.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5866", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I’ve outlined in my future prediction work that stablecoins represent a new economic layer that will significantly expand global commerce. They enable entirely new products and services that weren’t previously viable. If you want to learn more how you can create new products and services yourself because of stablecoins, review my google doc about the skills and jobs of a future with AI dominating. It has tons of ideas about how to make money in the emerging AI era. This article reinforces the stablecoin trend. Stablecoins are materially cheaper to use, offer faster settlement, and provide greater security than traditional payment rails. Adoption has accelerated, with total transaction volume rising sharply—particularly following the passage of the GENIUS Act last year. While consumer-to-consumer activity still accounts for the majority of volume, consumer-to-business transactions are growing at a faster rate. What is not yet reflected in the data is machine-to-machine commerce—transactions between AI agents—which is likely to surpass human transaction volume within the next decade. Another notable shift: stablecoins have historically been used primarily for cross-border payments due to their cost and speed advantages over wire transfers. That is now changing. Domestic usage is expanding rapidly, with both businesses and consumers increasingly using stablecoins in place of traditional payment methods. https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/stablecoins-are-going-local", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5867.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5867.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f0e5b0d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5867.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5867", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": " This announcement underlies an enormously important shift happening. Traditional SAAS products with logins and interfaces are being replaced by AI. That is, you tell AI what you want to see, and it goes and gets it and constructs the dashboard you want to see at the time you request it. That means that all that middleware of software that sits between data and the user is becoming less imnportant. The data itself is being rebuilt to reflect who can do what with it and how. More than that, the data is becoming portable, so rather than relying on databases themselves, it is moving to JSON structures that are just files. So rather than have big, expensive SAAS products, it is moving towards modular, far less costly structures that are easier for anyone to use. AI is becoming the operating system and the front end. Imagine your business does not have a website, but just data files and when an AI (or could be a non-AI bot) or a consumer requests your info, it just gets it and displays it. Think of how much cheaper it would be for you to do away with websites and front ends and designing it all? I am starting to make this shift myself, dramatically reducing my costs and complexity of maintaining websites. https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/salesforce-headless-360-announcement/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5868.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5868.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2884374 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5868.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5868", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Our past and still current (but rapidly shifting) economy was built on labor - employees and capital - money. 85% of the basis for taxes is built on labor (income and payroll). But a tech-based economy means far fewer laborers, which means they will have to become owners and entrepreneurs. We are shifting from employees to owners. But that also means the tax basis has to change dramatically, not just to more corporate taxes, but also there is more and more talk about taxing the efficiencies earned from technologies. A model many are looking at is the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) that distribus annual cash payments to resident from oil revenues. I can see somethiing similar, distributing gains from technology to citizens. https://apfc.org/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5870.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5870.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1816279 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5870.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5868", + "Date": "04/26/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This blow me away. I copied this out of an article: What makes Lila extraordinary is scale. Their AI has accumulated over 10 trillion tokens of scientific reasoning data, generated entirely by AI models reasoning through the scientific method against experimental results. For context, the usable subset of the internet for training LLMs is roughly 15 trillion tokens. By the end of 2026, Lila’s scientific reasoning dataset will exceed twice the size of the internet used to train frontier LLMs. All of it is original scientific thought. And crucially, Lila trains across all scientific domains simultaneously: life sciences, chemistry, materials science, energy. This matters because many of history’s greatest breakthroughs came from cross-domain insights. Penicillin was discovered by a biologist who noticed something strange about a mold. CRISPR was found by microbiologists studying bacterial immune systems. The transistor emerged from quantum physics applied to materials science. Me again. This original data trove is amazing, and so many little startups are doing just this. The innovation explosion is coming the likes we have never seen, not just in medicine, but physics, energy, material science.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5873.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5873.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2721f73 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5873.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5873", + "Date": "05/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "trading_platform.jpg", + "Summary": "What took months and significant ivestment can now be done inside weeks by anyone. This article points to the risks of automated, AI-driven platforms operated at scale by individuals, which can increase correlations and create system vulnerabilities with agents all move in the same direction. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5874.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5874.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..673cdb7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5874.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5873", + "Date": "05/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "insurance_ranges.jpg", + "Summary": "The range of home insurance premiums across states. South and midwest gets amplified by severe storms that have been increasing in these regions.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5875.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5875.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4183f91 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5875.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5875", + "Date": "05/02/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "biz_creation_vs_ai_adoption.jpg", + "Summary": "This data shows how AI adoption varies across sectors alongside the range of business applications emerging within each. A clear pattern is forming: higher AI adoption correlates with greater new business formation. As sectors adopt AI, they unlock new products, services, and operating models, expanding the surface area for entrepreneurship. This, in turn, attracts builders who want to create using these technologies.The implication is straightforward: sector growth increasingly depends on embracing emerging technologies. Adoption doesn’t just improve existing businesses; it catalyzes entirely new ones. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5877.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5877.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9cba3a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5877.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5877", + "Date": "05/03/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_layoffs_ai_no.jpg", + "Summary": "Will courts in the U.S. rule that firms cannot lay off workers on AI grounds, like China? No, not this extreme. But we could very well see a tax levied on firms based on the efficiency gains made using AI and automation, returned to people via a universal basic income (UBI). The dynamics of AI and jobs is that we will see reduced employment as firms shed workers, but a corresponding increase in entrepreneurship as people use AI to create entirely new products and services. We see both happening already.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5879.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5879.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d544394 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5879.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5879", + "Date": "05/04/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "industry_concerns.jpg", + "Summary": "Not just privately but increasingly in public, many technology leaders are raising concerns about the coming impact of AI and automation on employment and communities—especially as economic pressure builds on the U.S. middle class, which remains critical to long-term prosperity. In response, new solution frameworks are emerging, including Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Universal Compute Allocation (UCA). UBI redistributes money generated from productivity gains driven by technology, while UCA reallocates access to compute—effectively converting AI-driven capacity into real-world goods and services that individuals can use directly (for example, accessing an AI doctor for medical care). All of this could be coming fast...like inside this decade." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5884.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5884.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..04c4cc1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5884.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5879", + "Date": "05/04/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "real-per-income-detrended-gap.jpg", + "Summary": "Averaged over each person (per capita), we see personal incomes really slipping vs trend line. The detrended gap shows how far the data is below the hisotrical long-term trend line. And it has been trending down since 2011. Wealth has concentrated, which means income gains have concentrated amongst the top wealth brackets. This is why we have such weak consumer sentiment, pressure on the middle class, political dissatisfaction, slowing discretionary spending and an overall anemic economy. THe only way out of this is to embrace and bring innovation forward, not remain stuck in the past. Innovation is the only thing that will save us - engineer new products/services, create new jobs, fix our climate change, reverse soverign debt. The faster each of us embraces innovation, the faster we get through these difficulties. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5887.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5887.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03cf36a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5887.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5887", + "Date": "05/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "payrolls_05_26.jpg", + "Summary": "Appears a nice up trend has emerged in nonfarm employment." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5888.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5888.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4c00cab --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5888.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5887", + "Date": "05/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "tan_grbain_overviews.jpg", + "Summary": "Great project and another great read. There is so much latent value sitting in each of our file and email systems that can now be unleashed. But it is more than that. If each of us can enable this for ourselves, then the next step is our agents start talking to each other, networking at the speed of compute and bringing all that hidden value to light in ways we cannot imagine. Everyone has to start down this path that @garrytan has pioneered. It is how we re-energize our economy and empower prosperity for all. https://x.com/garrytan/status/2053127519872614419 " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5889.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5889.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c701de6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5889.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5889", + "Date": "05/10/2026", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Do this now. This is so important. Take your AI skill-building to an entirely new level. Download (or, specifically, curl in terminal) this repo, provide read access to Codex or Anthropic on your local workstation, and ask it to analyze the skills in this repo to surface best practices and tempaltes. Even better, if your use git for your projects, give your local AI read access to your local git directory so it has more context on creating a skill template for your needs. Then ask it to help you improve your existing skills in your projects. Huge learnings when I did this. https://github.com/garrytan/gbrain " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5893.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5893.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2a797b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5893.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5893", + "Date": "05/13/2026", + "Title": "Record High Number of 18-Year-Olds in the US Today", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "18-year-olds-record-high.png", + "Summary": "I did not see this coming. There is a record high number of 18-year-olds in the US today. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5894.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5894.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1238a13 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5894.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5894", + "Date": "05/13/2026", + "Title": "China's divergence", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_product_retal_sales.jpg", + "Summary": "Interesting chart showing China's industrial production vs its real retail sales. Clearly, China is more and more dependent on industrial production (which gets exported) rather than an internal consumer driven economy, which continues to trend down due to population decline, debt and the fact that China was never able to build a robust consumer-driven economy like the U.S. If the country does not export, it is in serious trouble. Many argue it is already in serious trouble because it has too much manufacturing capacity and no way for the world to absorb it. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5895.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5895.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..66bef91 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5895.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5895", + "Date": "05/13/2026", + "Title": "Medicare shifting to AI", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "The shift is happening. Health care has to change to lower costs and improve outcomes, and the only way that can happen is with AI. Hopefylly we can leverage AI in time before the system implodes under the weight of government debt, costs, regulations and our addiction to unhealthy food, which drives it all. https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/12/medicares-new-payment-model-is-built-for-ai-and-most-of-the-tech-world-has-no-idea/" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5898.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5898.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1faa1d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5898.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5898", + "Date": "05/15/2026", + "Title": "Household stress reduction", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Some positive data on household stress reduction. Here we see probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next 4-months has gone down, after a long uptrend since 2020. I have continued to warn about widepspread economic stress approaching the end of this decade, and we have to be prepared for that. However, I am wondering if that will materialize and starting to think differently as I see new data. It is possible that the long-awaited start of our next economic supercycle has begun. The innovation boom coming from AI is well at hand and just over the horizon, the boom in robotics/automation, which may become the biggest industry ever. These could help smooth out the rough patches coming up as a result of government debt, climate change, wealth inequality and other imbalances built over the last 80-years that need to be corrected. I still expect pain, but it could be more confined to certain sectors rather than the economy-at-large. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5899.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5899.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ad8e1a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5899.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5899", + "Date": "05/15/2026", + "Title": "My website builder open sourced", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "I’ve previously open sourced multiple tools around SEO, GEO and findability in the AI era. I am now releasing a fully working AI-native website publishing system to compliment that. This is not another website builder. The goal is to dramatically reduce complexity, cost, technical overhead, SEO dependency, plugin bloat, and even hosting costs while making websites maximally findable and usable by AI agents and AI search systems. The key insight: most people will not replace WordPress, Shopify, Wix, or existing websites — they will augment them with an AI-native layer optimized for AI discovery and machine readability. Even more interesting, local AI models like Codex and Claude already understand the builder and can help you modify and deploy your own site from simple Markdown content. I believe this is where publishing, findability, and business infrastructure are heading. Open sourced here: https://projects.eddiesoehnel.com/adminprojects/indx-front-website " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5903.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5903.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..147801e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5903.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5903", + "Date": "05/18/2026", + "Title": "Household stress reduction", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Thus far 2026, our pet business is returning right at average (our goal) in revenue and activity, which is good. We tend to have customers who are less price sensitive and in higher income groups and we have differentiated the business to be unique among competitors. But we are also raising prices on a few product lines to compensate for inflation and recent research suggests we are a bit underpriced compared to the competition. Challenges are managing costs due to inflation, which we do pretty well and last few years, we have dramatically reduced costs because of AI helping us take out the middle of contractors, specialists, SAAS providers, etc. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5906.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5906.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..de7c5e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5906.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5906", + "Date": "05/20/2026", + "Title": "Weekly analysis from emails of 700+ consumer brands - and a recent pattern emerging described as participation systems", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "5 years ago, I began subscribing to emails from consumer brands into a dedicated Gmail account. Now, I have an agent analyze the last week’s email to surface anything interesting, in context of a playbook I created that tracks emerging strategies, tactics, technologies and business models for consumer brands. Then, I do macro analysis across several months of data to surface any patterns. Here is an interesting analysis that popped up. A clear pattern emerging across the consumer brand landscape is that brands are evolving from simply selling products into building what can best be described as participation systems. A participation system is a business model where the customer is no longer just a buyer at the end of a transaction, but an ongoing participant inside a broader ecosystem of experiences, identity, community, contribution, rewards, data, resale, events, content, or co-creation. This is seen repeatedly in the research and is an extension of experience marketing. Across the industry, brands are increasingly trying to create recurring engagement loops where customers contribute attention, creativity, identity, data, inventory, advocacy, or participation — not just dollars. This shift matters because participation systems create stronger retention, richer first-party data, higher switching costs, more resilient communities, and entirely new monetization layers beyond selling physical goods. In many ways, the product is becoming the entry point into an ongoing relationship system rather than the final outcome itself. I added this to my playbook, with is in this google doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yKLjiqvipAuj4livF-NEDwwFqNIQf191A5tzN9KPA1Y/edit?usp=sharing " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5907.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5907.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ab8b6f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5907.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5907", + "Date": "05/20/2026", + "Title": "Are we at the start of an investment boom or in the later innings?", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Investment booms now and then. Two charts here seemingly at odds with each other. One says we are stretched, the other says we still have a long way to go. Who is right? I would lean heavily towards the second chart, even going further and saying we are in the early innings of this investment boom because the late-1990s boom was focused on tech sectors, while the investment boom now is starting to span across all sectors, not just tech. And we have barely started in robots/automation. That in itself may dwarf what we see now." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5908.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5908.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f924f1b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5908.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5908", + "Date": "05/20/2026", + "Title": "China's implosion", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_sectors.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart captures China in a nutshell. Exploding industrial production, falling consumer spending, stagnant production investment and a collapsing real estate market. The country is really imploding because of demographics, a property sector that is in decline (again, demographics) massive production capability that cannot be absorbed locally (again, demographics), and a world that is starting to put up barriers to China’s manufacturing to protect local industries. A tough situation for the country. What can it do? " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5909.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5909.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a87516c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5909.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5909", + "Date": "05/20/2026", + "Title": "We get hired to solve problems or grow revenue, not completing tasks", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "This article is making the rounds and it gets some things right. Other things not so, because it depends on the industry you are in. My $.02: we no longer get hired to do tasks, we get hired to solve problems that save time and money, or we get hired to grow revenue. That is it. Completing tasks is increasignly the job of AI, not humans. https://auren.substack.com/p/if-you-cant-get-a-job-today-its-your" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5914.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5914.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fa3fffd --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5914.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5914", + "Date": "05/25/2026", + "Title": "Mexico and Canada show stagnate growth", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "Mexico and Canada show stagnant GDP growth over the last decade, compared to the U.S., which in aggregate is growing due mainly to the tech boom. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5922.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5922.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..edb6c1c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5922.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5922", + "Date": "05/31/2026", + "Title": "A frothy-market indicator or something different", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "margin-balances.jpg", + "Summary": "Here we see how much leverage retail investors are using to invest in public markets. Margin balances surged after 2020, corrected somewhat, and are now moving higher again. Is this a sign of frothy markets similar to past cycles and a warning of an impending decline? Perhaps, but I’m not convinced. We are experiencing an explosion of new investment platforms, tools, and opportunities that make it easier than ever for retail investors to participate. At the same time, we may be in the early stages of an economic supercycle driven by emerging technologies—AI, automation, robotics, energy, and other innovations—that increasingly reinforce and accelerate one another. There will certainly be drawdowns and corrections along the way, but I currently lean toward a multi-decade expansionary period rather than a prolonged era of sideways markets or secular bear market conditions." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5925.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5925.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3d7f161 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5925.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5925", + "Date": "06/02/2026", + "Title": "Spending by the top 10% is pulling further ahead", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "top10_spend.jpg", + "Summary": "A bad trend that shows no signs of reversing. But I have confidence this will get fixed when we realize that the source of our past and future success is a vibrant and healthy middle class, and we are serious about addressing it. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5926.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5926.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..805612d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5926.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5926", + "Date": "06/03/2026", + "Title": "insurance claims that were closed without any payment to the policyholder by the five largest U.S. home insurers", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg", + "Summary": "Insurance claims that were closed without any payment to the policyholder by the five largest U.S. home insurers, a factor of many things: more weather realted damages, more scrutiny because insurance is a an increasingly tougher business, higher deductibles and losses come in under them, increased use of exclusions and policy limitations, more damage reported due to storm-chasing contractors, fraud. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5927.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5927.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e1a65cf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5927.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5927", + "Date": "06/04/2026", + "Title": "S&P 500 margins increasing... a lot", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg", + "Summary": "Tech has lifted S&P 500 profit margins to record highs. The only industry powering overall U.S. growth right now." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5928.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5928.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..68a898b --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5928.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5928", + "Date": "06/04/2026", + "Title": "Weekly business formation higher", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg", + "Summary": "Weekly business formation are higher, likely because of AI, but does not neccessarily mean they are making money and also probably means disruption of existing businesses. So, is AI transforming the economy ? Yes. Will it lead to growth, more income, more meaningful employment? History suggests yes, over time, but the transition will be rough. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5931.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5931.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..55c03eb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5931.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5931", + "Date": "06/04/2026", + "Title": "China Beige book revenue and profit margins", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_beige.jpg", + "Summary": "The world cannot live without China because of its manufacturing, so it is an economy I watch. If they falter, the world can't get products. You never know how truthful data is coming out of China (or even now the U.S., for that matter). " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5934.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5934.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..90b450c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5934.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5934", + "Date": "06/05/2026", + "Title": "IDR weakening over the long-term", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "usd-idr.jpg", + "Summary": "The Indonesian rupiah has been on a long-term weakening trend compared to the U.S. dollar. THe country is doing fine generally and a more stable emerging market, but the U.S. just continues to be the epicenter for economic growth relative to everyone else and demand for U.S. dollars is only going up. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5935.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5935.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f84daf --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5935.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5935", + "Date": "06/05/2026", + "Title": "Inflation surge across the globe", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "pmi_price-countries.jpg", + "Summary": "Input prices across manufacturing surging - less so in the U.S. compared to other countries. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5938.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5938.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..59e3ca7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5938.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5938", + "Date": "06/05/2026", + "Title": "Nominal growth - or actually decline - in factory orders", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "factory_orders.jpg", + "Summary": "This chart is very misleading on first look. This is nominal numbers, so accounting for inflation over this period, fatory orders would actually be lower in todays dollars versus 15 or so years ago." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5939.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5939.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4fd6005 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5939.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5939", + "Date": "06/06/2026", + "Title": "Low earth orbit is the new control sphere, not oceans; chinese 90% model; rising food prices is what causes wars; the societies with cheap energy, demographic tailwinds, and control of the commanding heights of the tech economy. China. The United States. Parts of South America.", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "pmi_price-countries.jpg", + "Summary": "See Brave New World Mauldin email June 6 2026 - good article on above key items" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5940.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5940.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..55595c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5940.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5940", + "Date": "06/06/2026", + "Title": "Euro area real retail sales index", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "eu_retail_sales.jpg", + "Summary": "Interesting the growth curve is the same pre-pandemic, but it has clearly notched down to a lower path." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5941.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5941.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae534cb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5941.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5941", + "Date": "06/06/2026", + "Title": "Save compute!", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "apple_old_pc.jpg", + "Summary": "Why am I thrilled to get for free an 11 and 14 year old mac PCs? I put out the word last year to customers of my pet business to give me old computers that are sitting in their closets unused, either because they upgraded or for Microsoft, they got bricked from the Windows 11 upgrade. I turn them into Linux servers and add them to my edge data center I built. Compute is compute - I don't care where it comes from - and we desparately need it. And free comptute is even better. And it is all powered by my own solar array I built, so even old inefficient machines work for me. My oldest machine in my stack is an 2006 Dell Inspiron that can only do basic processing. I name the machines after the dogs in the household where they came from; these are Geneva and Harper. Save your old computers! Turn them into Linux servers to power apps that AI builds for you. Or send them to me. I will put them to good use." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5942.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5942.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..71b4470 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5942.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5942", + "Date": "06/06/2026", + "Title": "Current equity valuation metrics comparison since 1900. ", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "equity-valuation-metrics.jpg", + "Summary": "These metrics are crazy. Are things truly different this time, or are we setting up for a painful reversion to the mean in equity prices? " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5944.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5944.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9b89ec4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5944.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5944", + "Date": "06/07/2026", + "Title": "Global demand destruction upcoming? ", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "zeihan-demand-destreuction.jpg", + "Summary": "Will the Hormuz disruption trigger a level of demand destruction not seen since World War II? I've seen credible arguments on both sides. Some analysts warn of severe economic consequences, while others—equally respected—argue that the global economy is far more resilient and adaptable than many assume, making such an outcome unlikely. So who will be right? As is often the case, the answer may lie somewhere in between. The coming months will reveal whether this becomes a historic economic shock or another crisis that markets and supply chains ultimately absorb." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5948.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5948.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ab9f273 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5948.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5948", + "Date": "06/08/2026", + "Title": "Who's the chump? ", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "Screenshot_20260607-183834.png", + "Summary": "I'm starting to feel like the chump in this story. I learned a long time ago that when everyone is on the same side of the boat, the risk of capsizing goes up, and the hype around a SpaceX IPO is at a level I’ve never seen in my lifetime. The original investors, market makers, and funds don’t really care because they get paid regardless of what happens after the stock starts trading. That leaves retail investors, who often end up being everyone else’s exit strategy—the chumps. A chump, after all, is someone who is gullible, easily deceived, or easily taken advantage of. If someone truly wants exposure to SpaceX, it may make more sense to wait until the lock-up periods expire, the smart money has had a chance to exit, the stock inevitably takes a hit, and then consider buying at a much lower price. " +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5950.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5950.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..93c1b6c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5950.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5950", + "Date": "06/08/2026", + "Title": "Tech firms called to shared AI profits", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "skorea-share.jpg", + "Summary": "It is not just in the U.S. but elsewhere where backlash against AI is occuring. And its not really AI or data centers, is the profits flowing to the few, leavingh behind the consequences to everyone else. Wealth inequality...that is the root issue." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5951.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5951.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..49355dc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5951.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5951", + "Date": "06/08/2026", + "Title": "Weekly economic index strongest growth since 2022", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "weekly_econ-Index.jpg", + "Summary": "This is in aggregate, so some sectors like tech and the top 10% of income earners are motoring along and pulling the rest of the economy along." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5952.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5952.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fc1654c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5952.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5950", + "Date": "06/08/2026", + "Title": "AI taking jobs is playing out", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "sectors_shed_jobs.jpg", + "Summary": "So far this is playing out as has been predicted the last few years - AI is eliminating jobs in sectors where it is being adopted. And it will happen to the other sectors as well. So many people have jumped on the Jevons Paradox bandwagon, how AI is going to increase jobs. I am not so sure. I think AI is different this time. I think AI will force more entrepreneurship and reduce jobs. We become business owners and asset owners, not employees. Net net I think we will benefit broadly, but the transition is going to be rough, as jobs evaporate and entrepreneurship lags. I've posted recently uptick in business formation and anecdotally, I see in my circles that many people are creating new business with AI. So, the transition is underway, but it will be rough (already is for job seekers)." +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5955.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5955.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fe5903a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5955.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5955", + "Date": "06/10/2026", + "Title": "Real Estate Vacancies", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "re_vacancies.jpg", + "Summary": "No surprise we're needing less office space and I expect that to continue as AI reduced employment goes down and entrepreneurship goes up. A shame that manufacturing is also climbing as well. We lack effective government policies to turn this around and Asia is just too strong at present for us to try and recover more.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5956.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5956.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7ba067d --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5956.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5956", + "Date": "06/11/2026", + "Title": "AI boom, crash, then relentless growth", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "", + "Summary": "It is really import to get different perspectives on the AI boom. I tend to live in the AI boom echo chamber, so I really value people like this author who require us to pause. My take: the potential and demand for AI will arrive (this author does not think so), but the timing could be later, which means valuations cannot support what we have now, which means we have a crash that wipes out investors. That does not mean AI fails - it just means valuations get adjusted. My concern is who gets wiped out - the chumps in this case - and that is likely to be the retail investor. All the new hyperscalers are going public this year, and existing one are already public. The original investors and their market makers will be sufficiently out to have made a killing on their investment. The retail public is their exit strategy. Amazon is a perfect analog: went public, then fell ~95% in the bust, took 10-years to recover, then did incredible the following 10-years. Great long-term investment, but it wiped out retail investors who did not have the capacity to hold on for decades to see their investment pay off. I think the same story repeats again. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5957.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5957.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ab7308c --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5957.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5957", + "Date": "06/11/2026", + "Title": "China population decline", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "china_pop_decline.jpg", + "Summary": "The math on China's population decline is a loss of 140 million every 10 years for the rest of the century, assuming we start at 1.4 billion now. But we really do not know China's population and I have read that estimates may be closer to 900 million right now. So how does China maintain its manufacturing dominance to a world dependent on it, until the world can reshore on its own? Robotics and automation. So maybe they maintain GDP and output and relative strength in economic capacity. It is looking like decades before the world can reshore, so the hope is China can keep it together before then.", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5958.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5958.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6c07a35 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5958.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5958", + "Date": "06/11/2026", + "Title": "AI can replace execution, but not taste...um, no", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "taste.jpg", + "Summary": "Wow. what a perfectly, succint, brutally truthful and correct answer. I hear this line a lot - AI can replace execution, but not taste - and this post sums up a perfect response. Intelligence, know how, experience, taste - they count for almost nothing in the AI era. It is ownership of scarce assets that are competitively defensible which produce income. And each of us has more than we think...see my framework here to help you figure out your's. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5961.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5961.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d8bc3d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5961.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5961", + "Date": "06/12/2026", + "Title": "Does a perfect currency exit? Maybe", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "fiat-vs-gold.jpg", + "Summary": "All paper or fiat currencies including the mighty U.S. dollar neer hold their value against other assets. The reason is because governments, including the U.S., print more to primarily fund government debt, which means as more float around, they increase inflation, which means they become worth less and less. No perfect currency has ever existed, including Gold. Crypto is more useless than fiat currencies. Does a perfect currency exist? Maybe. I've seen discussion around using energy, or KwH, as units of currency which honestly, on paper, actually makes sense. I wrote it up for my own understanding here and add to this document when I read something new around the concept: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uk13wPyuNwkFU397lGw5jvddsSVr2tckLFtYCQOs3Z8/edit?usp=sharing ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5962.json b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5962.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6602aca --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/hrecords/5962.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "HubID": "5962", + "Date": "06/13/2026", + "Title": "Unintended Consequences", + "HubTags": ["External Platform Posts", "Future Map"], + "Contacts": ["contact1", "contact2"], + "Companies": "", + "File": "", + "Image": "hit_moon.jpg", + "Summary": "NASA is crashing a rocket into the moon to create a crater, throwing debrit into orbit that could present a future risk to humans and spacecraft who now have to avoid shrapnell traveling at thousands of miles per hour. Gee...what could go wrong. ", + "Notes": "" +} diff --git a/data/insights-hub/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.md b/data/insights-hub/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f520cbb --- /dev/null +++ b/data/insights-hub/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.md @@ -0,0 +1,1540 @@ +# Insights Hub Posts - Last 6 Months + +Generated: 2026-06-16 + +Source tag: `External Platform Posts` + +--- + +## Unintended Consequences + +**Date:** 2026-06-13 + +NASA is crashing a rocket into the moon to create a crater, throwing debrit into orbit that could present a future risk to humans and spacecraft who now have to avoid shrapnell traveling at thousands of miles per hour. Gee...what could go wrong. + +![Unintended Consequences](files/hit_moon.jpg) + +--- + +## Does a perfect currency exit? Maybe + +**Date:** 2026-06-12 + +All paper or fiat currencies including the mighty U.S. dollar neer hold their value against other assets. The reason is because governments, including the U.S., print more to primarily fund government debt, which means as more float around, they increase inflation, which means they become worth less and less. No perfect currency has ever existed, including Gold. Crypto is more useless than fiat currencies. Does a perfect currency exist? Maybe. I've seen discussion around using energy, or KwH, as units of currency which honestly, on paper, actually makes sense. I wrote it up for my own understanding here and add to this document when I read something new around the concept: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Uk13wPyuNwkFU397lGw5jvddsSVr2tckLFtYCQOs3Z8/edit?usp=sharing + +![Does a perfect currency exit? Maybe](files/fiat-vs-gold.jpg) + +--- + +## AI can replace execution, but not taste...um, no + +**Date:** 2026-06-11 + +Wow. what a perfectly, succint, brutally truthful and correct answer. I hear this line a lot - AI can replace execution, but not taste - and this post sums up a perfect response. Intelligence, know how, experience, taste - they count for almost nothing in the AI era. It is ownership of scarce assets that are competitively defensible which produce income. And each of us has more than we think...see my framework here to help you figure out your's. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing + +![AI can replace execution, but not taste...um, no](files/taste.jpg) + +--- + +## China population decline + +**Date:** 2026-06-11 + +The math on China's population decline is a loss of 140 million every 10 years for the rest of the century, assuming we start at 1.4 billion now. But we really do not know China's population and I have read that estimates may be closer to 900 million right now. So how does China maintain its manufacturing dominance to a world dependent on it, until the world can reshore on its own? Robotics and automation. So maybe they maintain GDP and output and relative strength in economic capacity. It is looking like decades before the world can reshore, so the hope is China can keep it together before then. + +![China population decline](files/china_pop_decline.jpg) + +--- + +## AI boom, crash, then relentless growth + +**Date:** 2026-06-11 + +It is really import to get different perspectives on the AI boom. I tend to live in the AI boom echo chamber, so I really value people like this author who require us to pause. My take: the potential and demand for AI will arrive (this author does not think so), but the timing could be later, which means valuations cannot support what we have now, which means we have a crash that wipes out investors. That does not mean AI fails - it just means valuations get adjusted. My concern is who gets wiped out - the chumps in this case - and that is likely to be the retail investor. All the new hyperscalers are going public this year, and existing one are already public. The original investors and their market makers will be sufficiently out to have made a killing on their investment. The retail public is their exit strategy. Amazon is a perfect analog: went public, then fell ~95% in the bust, took 10-years to recover, then did incredible the following 10-years. Great long-term investment, but it wiped out retail investors who did not have the capacity to hold on for decades to see their investment pay off. I think the same story repeats again. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/ + +--- + +## Real Estate Vacancies + +**Date:** 2026-06-10 + +No surprise we're needing less office space and I expect that to continue as AI reduced employment goes down and entrepreneurship goes up. A shame that manufacturing is also climbing as well. We lack effective government policies to turn this around and Asia is just too strong at present for us to try and recover more. + +![Real Estate Vacancies](files/re_vacancies.jpg) + +--- + +## Weekly economic index strongest growth since 2022 + +**Date:** 2026-06-08 + +This is in aggregate, so some sectors like tech and the top 10% of income earners are motoring along and pulling the rest of the economy along. + +![Weekly economic index strongest growth since 2022](files/weekly_econ-Index.jpg) + +--- + +## Tech firms called to shared AI profits + +**Date:** 2026-06-08 + +It is not just in the U.S. but elsewhere where backlash against AI is occuring. And its not really AI or data centers, is the profits flowing to the few, leavingh behind the consequences to everyone else. Wealth inequality...that is the root issue. + +![Tech firms called to shared AI profits](files/skorea-share.jpg) + +--- + +## AI taking jobs is playing out + +**Date:** 2026-06-08 + +So far this is playing out as has been predicted the last few years - AI is eliminating jobs in sectors where it is being adopted. And it will happen to the other sectors as well. So many people have jumped on the Jevons Paradox bandwagon, how AI is going to increase jobs. I am not so sure. I think AI is different this time. I think AI will force more entrepreneurship and reduce jobs. We become business owners and asset owners, not employees. Net net I think we will benefit broadly, but the transition is going to be rough, as jobs evaporate and entrepreneurship lags. I've posted recently uptick in business formation and anecdotally, I see in my circles that many people are creating new business with AI. So, the transition is underway, but it will be rough (already is for job seekers). + +![AI taking jobs is playing out](files/sectors_shed_jobs.jpg) + +--- + +## Who's the chump? + +**Date:** 2026-06-08 + +I'm starting to feel like the chump in this story. I learned a long time ago that when everyone is on the same side of the boat, the risk of capsizing goes up, and the hype around a SpaceX IPO is at a level I’ve never seen in my lifetime. The original investors, market makers, and funds don’t really care because they get paid regardless of what happens after the stock starts trading. That leaves retail investors, who often end up being everyone else’s exit strategy—the chumps. A chump, after all, is someone who is gullible, easily deceived, or easily taken advantage of. If someone truly wants exposure to SpaceX, it may make more sense to wait until the lock-up periods expire, the smart money has had a chance to exit, the stock inevitably takes a hit, and then consider buying at a much lower price. + +![Who's the chump?](files/Screenshot_20260607-183834.png) + +--- + +## Global demand destruction upcoming? + +**Date:** 2026-06-07 + +Will the Hormuz disruption trigger a level of demand destruction not seen since World War II? I've seen credible arguments on both sides. Some analysts warn of severe economic consequences, while others—equally respected—argue that the global economy is far more resilient and adaptable than many assume, making such an outcome unlikely. So who will be right? As is often the case, the answer may lie somewhere in between. The coming months will reveal whether this becomes a historic economic shock or another crisis that markets and supply chains ultimately absorb. + +![Global demand destruction upcoming?](files/zeihan-demand-destreuction.jpg) + +--- + +## Current equity valuation metrics comparison since 1900. + +**Date:** 2026-06-06 + +These metrics are crazy. Are things truly different this time, or are we setting up for a painful reversion to the mean in equity prices? + +![Current equity valuation metrics comparison since 1900.](files/equity-valuation-metrics.jpg) + +--- + +## Save compute! + +**Date:** 2026-06-06 + +Why am I thrilled to get for free an 11 and 14 year old mac PCs? I put out the word last year to customers of my pet business to give me old computers that are sitting in their closets unused, either because they upgraded or for Microsoft, they got bricked from the Windows 11 upgrade. I turn them into Linux servers and add them to my edge data center I built. Compute is compute - I don't care where it comes from - and we desparately need it. And free comptute is even better. And it is all powered by my own solar array I built, so even old inefficient machines work for me. My oldest machine in my stack is an 2006 Dell Inspiron that can only do basic processing. I name the machines after the dogs in the household where they came from; these are Geneva and Harper. Save your old computers! Turn them into Linux servers to power apps that AI builds for you. Or send them to me. I will put them to good use. + +![Save compute!](files/apple_old_pc.jpg) + +--- + +## Euro area real retail sales index + +**Date:** 2026-06-06 + +Interesting the growth curve is the same pre-pandemic, but it has clearly notched down to a lower path. + +![Euro area real retail sales index](files/eu_retail_sales.jpg) + +--- + +## Low earth orbit is the new control sphere, not oceans; chinese 90% model; rising food prices is what causes wars; the societies with cheap energy, demographic tailwinds, and control of the commanding heights of the tech economy. China. The United States. Parts of South America. + +**Date:** 2026-06-06 + +See Brave New World Mauldin email June 6 2026 - good article on above key items + +![Low earth orbit is the new control sphere, not oceans; chinese 90% model; rising food prices is what causes wars; the societies with cheap energy, demographic tailwinds, and control of the commanding heights of the tech economy. China. The United States. Parts of South America.](files/pmi_price-countries.jpg) + +--- + +## Nominal growth - or actually decline - in factory orders + +**Date:** 2026-06-05 + +This chart is very misleading on first look. This is nominal numbers, so accounting for inflation over this period, fatory orders would actually be lower in todays dollars versus 15 or so years ago. + +![Nominal growth - or actually decline - in factory orders](files/factory_orders.jpg) + +--- + +## Inflation surge across the globe + +**Date:** 2026-06-05 + +Input prices across manufacturing surging - less so in the U.S. compared to other countries. + +![Inflation surge across the globe](files/pmi_price-countries.jpg) + +--- + +## IDR weakening over the long-term + +**Date:** 2026-06-05 + +The Indonesian rupiah has been on a long-term weakening trend compared to the U.S. dollar. THe country is doing fine generally and a more stable emerging market, but the U.S. just continues to be the epicenter for economic growth relative to everyone else and demand for U.S. dollars is only going up. + +![IDR weakening over the long-term](files/usd-idr.jpg) + +--- + +## China Beige book revenue and profit margins + +**Date:** 2026-06-04 + +The world cannot live without China because of its manufacturing, so it is an economy I watch. If they falter, the world can't get products. You never know how truthful data is coming out of China (or even now the U.S., for that matter). + +![China Beige book revenue and profit margins](files/china_beige.jpg) + +--- + +## Weekly business formation higher + +**Date:** 2026-06-04 + +Weekly business formation are higher, likely because of AI, but does not neccessarily mean they are making money and also probably means disruption of existing businesses. So, is AI transforming the economy ? Yes. Will it lead to growth, more income, more meaningful employment? History suggests yes, over time, but the transition will be rough. + +![Weekly business formation higher](files/INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg) + +--- + +## S&P 500 margins increasing... a lot + +**Date:** 2026-06-04 + +Tech has lifted S&P 500 profit margins to record highs. The only industry powering overall U.S. growth right now. + +![S&P 500 margins increasing... a lot](files/INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg) + +--- + +## insurance claims that were closed without any payment to the policyholder by the five largest U.S. home insurers + +**Date:** 2026-06-03 + +Insurance claims that were closed without any payment to the policyholder by the five largest U.S. home insurers, a factor of many things: more weather realted damages, more scrutiny because insurance is a an increasingly tougher business, higher deductibles and losses come in under them, increased use of exclusions and policy limitations, more damage reported due to storm-chasing contractors, fraud. + +![insurance claims that were closed without any payment to the policyholder by the five largest U.S. home insurers](files/INSURANCE-CLAINS-PAID.jpg) + +--- + +## Spending by the top 10% is pulling further ahead + +**Date:** 2026-06-02 + +A bad trend that shows no signs of reversing. But I have confidence this will get fixed when we realize that the source of our past and future success is a vibrant and healthy middle class, and we are serious about addressing it. + +![Spending by the top 10% is pulling further ahead](files/top10_spend.jpg) + +--- + +## A frothy-market indicator or something different + +**Date:** 2026-05-31 + +Here we see how much leverage retail investors are using to invest in public markets. Margin balances surged after 2020, corrected somewhat, and are now moving higher again. Is this a sign of frothy markets similar to past cycles and a warning of an impending decline? Perhaps, but I’m not convinced. We are experiencing an explosion of new investment platforms, tools, and opportunities that make it easier than ever for retail investors to participate. At the same time, we may be in the early stages of an economic supercycle driven by emerging technologies—AI, automation, robotics, energy, and other innovations—that increasingly reinforce and accelerate one another. There will certainly be drawdowns and corrections along the way, but I currently lean toward a multi-decade expansionary period rather than a prolonged era of sideways markets or secular bear market conditions. + +![A frothy-market indicator or something different](files/margin-balances.jpg) + +--- + +## Mexico and Canada show stagnate growth + +**Date:** 2026-05-25 + +Mexico and Canada show stagnant GDP growth over the last decade, compared to the U.S., which in aggregate is growing due mainly to the tech boom. + +--- + +## We get hired to solve problems or grow revenue, not completing tasks + +**Date:** 2026-05-20 + +This article is making the rounds and it gets some things right. Other things not so, because it depends on the industry you are in. My $.02: we no longer get hired to do tasks, we get hired to solve problems that save time and money, or we get hired to grow revenue. That is it. Completing tasks is increasignly the job of AI, not humans. https://auren.substack.com/p/if-you-cant-get-a-job-today-its-your + +--- + +## China's implosion + +**Date:** 2026-05-20 + +This chart captures China in a nutshell. Exploding industrial production, falling consumer spending, stagnant production investment and a collapsing real estate market. The country is really imploding because of demographics, a property sector that is in decline (again, demographics) massive production capability that cannot be absorbed locally (again, demographics), and a world that is starting to put up barriers to China’s manufacturing to protect local industries. A tough situation for the country. What can it do? + +![China's implosion](files/china_sectors.jpg) + +--- + +## Are we at the start of an investment boom or in the later innings? + +**Date:** 2026-05-20 + +Investment booms now and then. Two charts here seemingly at odds with each other. One says we are stretched, the other says we still have a long way to go. Who is right? I would lean heavily towards the second chart, even going further and saying we are in the early innings of this investment boom because the late-1990s boom was focused on tech sectors, while the investment boom now is starting to span across all sectors, not just tech. And we have barely started in robots/automation. That in itself may dwarf what we see now. + +--- + +## Weekly analysis from emails of 700+ consumer brands - and a recent pattern emerging described as participation systems + +**Date:** 2026-05-20 + +5 years ago, I began subscribing to emails from consumer brands into a dedicated Gmail account. Now, I have an agent analyze the last week’s email to surface anything interesting, in context of a playbook I created that tracks emerging strategies, tactics, technologies and business models for consumer brands. Then, I do macro analysis across several months of data to surface any patterns. Here is an interesting analysis that popped up. A clear pattern emerging across the consumer brand landscape is that brands are evolving from simply selling products into building what can best be described as participation systems. A participation system is a business model where the customer is no longer just a buyer at the end of a transaction, but an ongoing participant inside a broader ecosystem of experiences, identity, community, contribution, rewards, data, resale, events, content, or co-creation. This is seen repeatedly in the research and is an extension of experience marketing. Across the industry, brands are increasingly trying to create recurring engagement loops where customers contribute attention, creativity, identity, data, inventory, advocacy, or participation — not just dollars. This shift matters because participation systems create stronger retention, richer first-party data, higher switching costs, more resilient communities, and entirely new monetization layers beyond selling physical goods. In many ways, the product is becoming the entry point into an ongoing relationship system rather than the final outcome itself. I added this to my playbook, with is in this google doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yKLjiqvipAuj4livF-NEDwwFqNIQf191A5tzN9KPA1Y/edit?usp=sharing + +--- + +## Household stress reduction + +**Date:** 2026-05-18 + +Thus far 2026, our pet business is returning right at average (our goal) in revenue and activity, which is good. We tend to have customers who are less price sensitive and in higher income groups and we have differentiated the business to be unique among competitors. But we are also raising prices on a few product lines to compensate for inflation and recent research suggests we are a bit underpriced compared to the competition. Challenges are managing costs due to inflation, which we do pretty well and last few years, we have dramatically reduced costs because of AI helping us take out the middle of contractors, specialists, SAAS providers, etc. + +--- + +## My website builder open sourced + +**Date:** 2026-05-15 + +I’ve previously open sourced multiple tools around SEO, GEO and findability in the AI era. I am now releasing a fully working AI-native website publishing system to compliment that. This is not another website builder. The goal is to dramatically reduce complexity, cost, technical overhead, SEO dependency, plugin bloat, and even hosting costs while making websites maximally findable and usable by AI agents and AI search systems. The key insight: most people will not replace WordPress, Shopify, Wix, or existing websites — they will augment them with an AI-native layer optimized for AI discovery and machine readability. Even more interesting, local AI models like Codex and Claude already understand the builder and can help you modify and deploy your own site from simple Markdown content. I believe this is where publishing, findability, and business infrastructure are heading. Open sourced here: https://projects.eddiesoehnel.com/adminprojects/indx-front-website + +--- + +## Household stress reduction + +**Date:** 2026-05-15 + +Some positive data on household stress reduction. Here we see probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next 4-months has gone down, after a long uptrend since 2020. I have continued to warn about widepspread economic stress approaching the end of this decade, and we have to be prepared for that. However, I am wondering if that will materialize and starting to think differently as I see new data. It is possible that the long-awaited start of our next economic supercycle has begun. The innovation boom coming from AI is well at hand and just over the horizon, the boom in robotics/automation, which may become the biggest industry ever. These could help smooth out the rough patches coming up as a result of government debt, climate change, wealth inequality and other imbalances built over the last 80-years that need to be corrected. I still expect pain, but it could be more confined to certain sectors rather than the economy-at-large. + +--- + +## Medicare shifting to AI + +**Date:** 2026-05-13 + +The shift is happening. Health care has to change to lower costs and improve outcomes, and the only way that can happen is with AI. Hopefylly we can leverage AI in time before the system implodes under the weight of government debt, costs, regulations and our addiction to unhealthy food, which drives it all. https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/12/medicares-new-payment-model-is-built-for-ai-and-most-of-the-tech-world-has-no-idea/ + +--- + +## China's divergence + +**Date:** 2026-05-13 + +Interesting chart showing China's industrial production vs its real retail sales. Clearly, China is more and more dependent on industrial production (which gets exported) rather than an internal consumer driven economy, which continues to trend down due to population decline, debt and the fact that China was never able to build a robust consumer-driven economy like the U.S. If the country does not export, it is in serious trouble. Many argue it is already in serious trouble because it has too much manufacturing capacity and no way for the world to absorb it. + +![China's divergence](files/china_product_retal_sales.jpg) + +--- + +## Record High Number of 18-Year-Olds in the US Today + +**Date:** 2026-05-13 + +I did not see this coming. There is a record high number of 18-year-olds in the US today. + +![Record High Number of 18-Year-Olds in the US Today](files/18-year-olds-record-high.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-10 + +Do this now. This is so important. Take your AI skill-building to an entirely new level. Download (or, specifically, curl in terminal) this repo, provide read access to Codex or Anthropic on your local workstation, and ask it to analyze the skills in this repo to surface best practices and tempaltes. Even better, if your use git for your projects, give your local AI read access to your local git directory so it has more context on creating a skill template for your needs. Then ask it to help you improve your existing skills in your projects. Huge learnings when I did this. https://github.com/garrytan/gbrain + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-10 + +Appears a nice up trend has emerged in nonfarm employment. + +![payrolls_05_26](files/payrolls_05_26.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-10 + +Great project and another great read. There is so much latent value sitting in each of our file and email systems that can now be unleashed. But it is more than that. If each of us can enable this for ourselves, then the next step is our agents start talking to each other, networking at the speed of compute and bringing all that hidden value to light in ways we cannot imagine. Everyone has to start down this path that @garrytan has pioneered. It is how we re-energize our economy and empower prosperity for all. https://x.com/garrytan/status/2053127519872614419 + +![tan_grbain_overviews](files/tan_grbain_overviews.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-04 + +Not just privately but increasingly in public, many technology leaders are raising concerns about the coming impact of AI and automation on employment and communities—especially as economic pressure builds on the U.S. middle class, which remains critical to long-term prosperity. In response, new solution frameworks are emerging, including Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Universal Compute Allocation (UCA). UBI redistributes money generated from productivity gains driven by technology, while UCA reallocates access to compute—effectively converting AI-driven capacity into real-world goods and services that individuals can use directly (for example, accessing an AI doctor for medical care). All of this could be coming fast...like inside this decade. + +![industry_concerns](files/industry_concerns.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-04 + +Averaged over each person (per capita), we see personal incomes really slipping vs trend line. The detrended gap shows how far the data is below the hisotrical long-term trend line. And it has been trending down since 2011. Wealth has concentrated, which means income gains have concentrated amongst the top wealth brackets. This is why we have such weak consumer sentiment, pressure on the middle class, political dissatisfaction, slowing discretionary spending and an overall anemic economy. THe only way out of this is to embrace and bring innovation forward, not remain stuck in the past. Innovation is the only thing that will save us - engineer new products/services, create new jobs, fix our climate change, reverse soverign debt. The faster each of us embraces innovation, the faster we get through these difficulties. + +![real-per-income-detrended-gap](files/real-per-income-detrended-gap.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-03 + +Will courts in the U.S. rule that firms cannot lay off workers on AI grounds, like China? No, not this extreme. But we could very well see a tax levied on firms based on the efficiency gains made using AI and automation, returned to people via a universal basic income (UBI). The dynamics of AI and jobs is that we will see reduced employment as firms shed workers, but a corresponding increase in entrepreneurship as people use AI to create entirely new products and services. We see both happening already. + +![china_layoffs_ai_no](files/china_layoffs_ai_no.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-02 + +This data shows how AI adoption varies across sectors alongside the range of business applications emerging within each. A clear pattern is forming: higher AI adoption correlates with greater new business formation. As sectors adopt AI, they unlock new products, services, and operating models, expanding the surface area for entrepreneurship. This, in turn, attracts builders who want to create using these technologies.The implication is straightforward: sector growth increasingly depends on embracing emerging technologies. Adoption doesn’t just improve existing businesses; it catalyzes entirely new ones. + +![biz_creation_vs_ai_adoption](files/biz_creation_vs_ai_adoption.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-02 + +What took months and significant ivestment can now be done inside weeks by anyone. This article points to the risks of automated, AI-driven platforms operated at scale by individuals, which can increase correlations and create system vulnerabilities with agents all move in the same direction. + +![trading_platform](files/trading_platform.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-05-02 + +The range of home insurance premiums across states. South and midwest gets amplified by severe storms that have been increasing in these regions. + +![insurance_ranges](files/insurance_ranges.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +Our past and still current (but rapidly shifting) economy was built on labor - employees and capital - money. 85% of the basis for taxes is built on labor (income and payroll). But a tech-based economy means far fewer laborers, which means they will have to become owners and entrepreneurs. We are shifting from employees to owners. But that also means the tax basis has to change dramatically, not just to more corporate taxes, but also there is more and more talk about taxing the efficiencies earned from technologies. A model many are looking at is the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) that distribus annual cash payments to resident from oil revenues. I can see somethiing similar, distributing gains from technology to citizens. https://apfc.org/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +This blow me away. I copied this out of an article: What makes Lila extraordinary is scale. Their AI has accumulated over 10 trillion tokens of scientific reasoning data, generated entirely by AI models reasoning through the scientific method against experimental results. For context, the usable subset of the internet for training LLMs is roughly 15 trillion tokens. By the end of 2026, Lila’s scientific reasoning dataset will exceed twice the size of the internet used to train frontier LLMs. All of it is original scientific thought. And crucially, Lila trains across all scientific domains simultaneously: life sciences, chemistry, materials science, energy. This matters because many of history’s greatest breakthroughs came from cross-domain insights. Penicillin was discovered by a biologist who noticed something strange about a mold. CRISPR was found by microbiologists studying bacterial immune systems. The transistor emerged from quantum physics applied to materials science. Me again. This original data trove is amazing, and so many little startups are doing just this. The innovation explosion is coming the likes we have never seen, not just in medicine, but physics, energy, material science. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +This announcement underlies an enormously important shift happening. Traditional SAAS products with logins and interfaces are being replaced by AI. That is, you tell AI what you want to see, and it goes and gets it and constructs the dashboard you want to see at the time you request it. That means that all that middleware of software that sits between data and the user is becoming less imnportant. The data itself is being rebuilt to reflect who can do what with it and how. More than that, the data is becoming portable, so rather than relying on databases themselves, it is moving to JSON structures that are just files. So rather than have big, expensive SAAS products, it is moving towards modular, far less costly structures that are easier for anyone to use. AI is becoming the operating system and the front end. Imagine your business does not have a website, but just data files and when an AI (or could be a non-AI bot) or a consumer requests your info, it just gets it and displays it. Think of how much cheaper it would be for you to do away with websites and front ends and designing it all? I am starting to make this shift myself, dramatically reducing my costs and complexity of maintaining websites. https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/salesforce-headless-360-announcement/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +I’ve outlined in my future prediction work that stablecoins represent a new economic layer that will significantly expand global commerce. They enable entirely new products and services that weren’t previously viable. If you want to learn more how you can create new products and services yourself because of stablecoins, review my google doc about the skills and jobs of a future with AI dominating. It has tons of ideas about how to make money in the emerging AI era. This article reinforces the stablecoin trend. Stablecoins are materially cheaper to use, offer faster settlement, and provide greater security than traditional payment rails. Adoption has accelerated, with total transaction volume rising sharply—particularly following the passage of the GENIUS Act last year. While consumer-to-consumer activity still accounts for the majority of volume, consumer-to-business transactions are growing at a faster rate. What is not yet reflected in the data is machine-to-machine commerce—transactions between AI agents—which is likely to surpass human transaction volume within the next decade. Another notable shift: stablecoins have historically been used primarily for cross-border payments due to their cost and speed advantages over wire transfers. That is now changing. Domestic usage is expanding rapidly, with both businesses and consumers increasingly using stablecoins in place of traditional payment methods. https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/stablecoins-are-going-local + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +Great charts in this short article. The upshot is that the world's value - relfected in earnings - is based on compute. As everything is becoming electrified and is being produced and controled by software and AI, values and earnings are being driven by compute. A company the switches to using compute is able to drive more value and earnings than companies which do not. To keep up, it is not just companies, but consumers must also migrate their lives to compute, because it will drive more income and reduce costs. Compute will also help solve challenges - environmental, health, resource constraints, wealth inequality. The entire value chain of the future is becoming based on compute. https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-software-ate-the + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-26 + +For the first time, foreign private investors hold more US Treasuries than foreign central banks. This makes the treasury market more sensitive to the return expectations of private capital, which is more price sensitive. This means that private capital can demand higher rates from the U.S. government in order to hold its debt, which gets reflected in rates that businesses and consumers pay for debt like business loans and mortgages. Via https://www.apollo.com/wealth/the-daily-spark/foreign-private-capital-has-overtaken-central-banks-in-the-treasury-market + +![foreign_capitol_overtakes_us_treas](files/foreign_capitol_overtakes_us_treas.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-25 + +Automation in product development is moving from the digital world into the physical, driven by AI. Writing code with AI is already standard—now that capability is extending into hardware and real-world prototyping. AI systems can rapidly design, build, and iterate physical products at speeds and scale far beyond human teams. The next phase is full-cycle automation: humans collaborate with AI on ideas, then hand off to systems that prototype, test, and manufacture autonomously. Distribution is automating, too, with autonomous tansportation that includes door delivery using robots in neightborhoods. https://www.corememory.com/p/a-hundred-robots-are-running-a-bio-medra-michelle-lee + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-24 + +U.S. real retail sales vs. pre-pandemic trend. After adjusting for price increases, it continues below long-term trend. I project this to be the norm the remainder of this decade. + +![real_retail_sales_2026_04](files/real_retail_sales_2026_04.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-23 + +Building agents is quite technical at present; eventually this will abstract away so it becomes less technical. This article covers marketing engineers - new roles needed to build and manage agents. This engineer role will be critical across functions in a company. linkedin.com/posts/therealmarvin_marketing-engineers-are-the-hire-of-2026-activity-7450397673012215808-HjPg + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-23 + +From solar panel supplier I use - in LA warehouse: Trina black frame dual glass: 435w/445w: $0.245/w JA 455w bifacial black frame: $0.245/w; Znshine full black bifacial 450w: $0.23/w; HT full black bifacial 455w:$0.22/w Canadian 585w bifacial dual glass: $0.22/w; Trina 585w/610w bifacial dual glass: $0.22/w; Jinko 460w/465w/470w:$0.245/w + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-21 + +Fascinating analysis on data center spend versus other megaprojects in context of GDP. Nothing comes even close to Railroads. Will data center expansion close the gap? We certainly need it as demand is dramatically outstripping supply at present. + +![datcanters-mega](files/datcanters-mega.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-20 + +More evidence of my thesis about the resurection of corporate soverigns. Consider the attached, where a single company controlled by a single person can easily change the course of war at the flip of a switch. + +![corp-soverign-starlink](files/corp-soverign-starlink.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-20 + +This gap is easily explained. THe top 10% (they own the majority of investment assets) are doing very well as corporations get more and more efficient and extend their returns and equity gains to owners. But the workers (the bottom 90%) are struggling and not participating in this. This gap is becoming worisome by the top 10% and there is finally some early consensus that this has to be rectified. That is why I am optimistic for the future for the U.S., because while short-to-medium term if will be rough, we will figure it out. + +![gap_sentimnet_2p](files/gap_sentimnet_2p.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-20 + +Student enrollment declines by 2031 by state. The primary and secondary order effects will be so numerous, don't know where to start. https://bellwether.org/publications/how-student-enrollment-declines-are-affecting-education-budgets/?activeTab=2 + +![education_declines](files/education_declines.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-19 + +Uptrends in U.S. manufacturing growth for New York continues. + +![empire_man_2026_04](files/empire_man_2026_04.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +![jp_M_earnings_growth](files/jp_M_earnings_growth.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +![lme_down](files/lme_down.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +![foreign_flows](files/foreign_flows.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +![org_around_AI](files/org_around_AI.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-18 + +![healthcare_social_job-growth](files/healthcare_social_job-growth.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-17 + +In 2023 people predicted that by 2025, we would create our own movies. Now its 2028, so a bit behind, but there is no question that it is coming. + +![movei_quality](files/movei_quality.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-17 + +There are two seemingly diametrically opposed views emerging: (1) Emerging technologies will explode jobs: (2) Emerging technologies will shrink jobs. Really smart and thoughtful people make great arguments for both. Who is right? Both, actually. Emerging technologies underpinned by AI will eliminate employees. Rather than having 1,000, 100 or 10 employees, companies can operate with far fewer. But it will explode business ownership, because emerging technologies will allow people to form new companies selling new products and services that were not possible before. So, employment way down, business ownership way up, which could means a lot more companies that are a lot smaller. Employees will become business owners. Data is thus far confirming this view. + +![business_formation_2026_04](files/business_formation_2026_04.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-17 + +We've had a wonderful period the last 3-years to access incredible intelligence for the price of a streaming subscription. But that is ending because the capabilities of this intelligence have exploded, along with the demand, all of which requires lots more chips and power, which we lack. It is not just prices that are rising, but now that intelligence is being limited to who can pay for it. For most, however, the intelligence we need is probably good enough. But the shift will require that we move off of cloud platforms onto our own compute infrastructure with open source models. Thankfully, we're just starting to see an explosion in open source, decentralized AI so that the majority of us do not get shut out from using AI. https://tomtunguz.com/ai-compute-crisis-2026 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +Sure, this may be a clear action to reduce reliance on U.S. tech, but it brings to mind a much larger issue all of us have to fix for ourselves. Our technology-enabled world is becoming fragile because it is centralized among fewer and fewer providers. Take one down and 1/3 of the Internet breaks. We've seen this already in the last year. Each of us has to take control of our own infrastructure, installing our own servers managed by us, our own systems, building our own software (which we can do with AI). Incredible tools have emerged that deplatform, decentralize and democratize our ability to do this. And, it is a lot cheaper. I started dumping cloud services in 2024 and rebuilding into my own physical and digital infrastructure and have saved a lot of money. I also have control of my data and can control the security I put in place to protect it. https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/10/france-to-ditch-windows-for-linux-to-reduce-reliance-on-us-tech/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +This from Seth Godin is awesome: Creating the conditions for magic. If you’re hoping for this meeting or this performance or this engagement to produce something extraordinary, why are you setting it up as if it’s ordinary? The hard work of a brainstorming session, a pitch collaboration or a negotiation happens long before most people begin. We hire architects to design expensive buildings, but we design expensive human interactions as an afterthought. If it doesn’t feel like you’re putting a lot of effort into creating the conditions for magic, you’re probably not creating those conditions. We want to create conditions for magic in this event, so lets design an awesome funnel that pulls people in and helps setup an incredible event. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +Do you want your own Jarvis? Here it is. This repo is incredible and free. But I would not rush to do this. This is first generation of our own personal Jarvis, so it will be buggy. Second, this violates a very important security rule - never, ever give AI direct access to accounts. Instead, there needs to be a tool layer in between. What if the agent starts spaming all of your contacts? That is why you create tool layers to help limit the damage. Finally, this is a unified system. How do you debug it? What if a better component comes along. How do you integrate it? An effective Jarvis for each of us will be one that comprises many agents, each with a very specific task that we can sawp out when a better ones emerges or debug it or monitor its actions, and which does not have direct access to our accounts. Still, this repo blows me away. https://github.com/garrytan/gbrain + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +No secret that inflation is jumping right now due to oil and energy. The narrative has been and will be - for the next 10-years - higher inflation, maybe periods of really high inflation. The world is resource constrained and needs to shift to an electrified future, which requires a lot of resources and energy to make that shift. Hence, inflation. But I am open to an alternative narrative emerging where we could see lower inflation. Why? Because the costs could be borne by large corporations. Plus, we may be able to see actual deflation due to AI that will make things cheaper. I am prepared for inflation, but open to it being more muted. + +![pce_inflation_2026_04](files/pce_inflation_2026_04.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +Compute crunch does not do even come close to what is going on. The demand for intelligence via AI is surging exponentially right now. That will not stop - I think at least through the end of this decade if not for the next 10 years. My concern is that those who can pay for compute - intelligence - will win out, while those that cannot will lose. Intelligene, experience, education are no longer the competitive advantage, especially when AI is better. The advantage comes to owning assets, like compute, that others will pay to use. Shift to owning assets - not gaining job experience or education. https://martinalderson.com/posts/what-next-for-the-compute-crunch/?utm_source=tldrnewsletter + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-12 + +Superintelligence is finally here—and it’s rattling people. Anthropic’s new model isn’t being released to the public (at least not yet). Instead, it is being directed toward an initiative to identify and patch security vulnerabilities across the internet. At the same time, the U.S. government has reportedly convened financial institutions to coordinate using this model to shore up their own defenses. Even the name—Mythos—sounds like something rising out of the abyss. Here’s the issue: other frontier models are reaching similar levels of capability. How long before one is released publicly to gain a competitive edge? These systems are powerful enough to be used offensively—able to discover and exploit vulnerabilities faster than organizations can patch them. What can you do right now: (1) Use strong passwords, MFA, and especially passkeys everywhere possible; (2) Assume breach is inevitable—limit the blast radius. Separate systems and identities: Personal email, Shopping/accounts email, Work email, Financial accounts. Lock down access to critical accounts and data. (3) Do not give AI direct access to your core systems (email, OS, accounts). Instead, use intermediary tools that fetch data, pass it to the AI, and return results. Bottom line: operate as if your systems will be tested and design them so failure is contained. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/a-disruptive-moment-in-time + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-11 + +Services holding up. Durable goods (cars, appliances, machinery) and non-durable goods (food, beverages, clothing, paper goods) have leveled off or even showing downturns. The former appears to have meet with pre-COVID trend and later is below trend. + +![consumption_spend_real_2026_04](files/consumption_spend_real_2026_04.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-11 + +There is a big shift recently about how to manage the automation of jobs in the future. We've all known for several years that AI will significantly disrupt white collar and belue collar jobs at all levels. Now, many are becoming more alarmed and starting to propose solutions. Here's a recent paper put out by OpenAI discussing things like affordable access to AI so no one gets left behind, sharing AI-wealth more broadly, worker protections and more. We will truly see some radical things put in place to help people manage the transition, starting in the next few years. https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/06/openais-vision-for-the-ai-economy-public-wealth-funds-robot-taxes-and-a-four-day-work-week/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-04 + +Freight tends to be a leading indicator of industrial and manufacturing activity. Looking at this chart, demand is surging quite a bit. + +![freight_surging](files/freight_surging.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-04-03 + +A fascinating multi-decade view on commercial real estate property values. Clearly, recessionary periods for the industry take 10-20 years to recover to previous values. We're not only at the start of another 10-20 year recovery period, but we may not even recover in the traditional sense because of the magnitude of societal and structural changes happening right now and over the next decade. The transportation compression alone (rise of autonomous vehicles, air taxis, supersonic and sub-orbital transportation) will change the real estate environment quite dramatically, as people can live where they want and commute far easier via autonomous methods. Layer on more connectivity (broadband via terrestrial, satellite), more economic stress and environmental stress (both that will curtail spending on office real estate and transportation), and the real estate industry will look quite different. How that impacts valuations will be more driven by local conditions. + +![CRE_decades](files/CRE_decades.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-31 + +This came across my desk: Sid Sijbrandij ran out of standard care treatments for bone cancer, so he started creating treatments for himself. This site details his journey and the results of the treatments so far. Sijbrandij's cancer is now in remission. He is now working with companies to scale his approach for others. Last week is was about guy in Australia that used Alphafold and Claude I think and genetic testing he paid for to design a cancer treatment for his dog and it worked. Each one of us can use these tools to figure out out health and heal diseases on your own. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-30 + +Here a study out of Tufts that looks at the AI-driven job loss across occupation, indstry and metropilitan area. Clearly, the white collar, technology belts are most at risk. They are the rust-belts of the last centruy U.S. that saw manufacturing jobs evaporate. Huge disslocation across specific knowledge-based sectors. It is no longer intelligence or education or know-how, it is ownership of income producing assets that others will rent. https://phys.org/news/2026-03-wired-belts-rust-jobs-vulnerable.html + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-30 + +It is clear the immense dislocaiton coming in jobs due to exponential technologoes. That view is now mainstream. But how do manage this transition? This link provides a sobering look and offers a plan for universal basic income, packaging basic services for people in cost-effective ways, followed by immense dissinflation as productivity skyrockets and costs decrease dramatically. This is not decades away. This is the next decade, beginning now. Already there are major layoffs in the corporate sector; technology companies with immense wealth leading this transition are already beginning to shoulder expenses, like paying for power build out for their data centers. Government is bankrupt, paralyzed by regulations and legacy interests trying to hold on to what is inevitably slipping away. It will be up to the private sector, especially the large corporates. The return of the corporate soverign is at hand. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/from-ubi-to-uhi-in-3-steps?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=6sj7 + +![freight_surging](files/freight_surging.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-30 + +Really interesting diconnect in rates. The Fed controls short rates, which should dictate long rates, but that is no longer the case. Long rates are dicated by investors in U.S. debt, and they are indicating they want a higher yield to buy the debt. It is probably a combination of things, including concern about rising U.S. debt levels, competition from other investments, lower demand. January 2025 is when the divergence occured. Higher rates mean higher business and consumer interest rates. + +![10_yr](files/10_yr.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-30 + +43% of imports are free of any tarrif. INcludes energy, pharma, electrical equipment, machinery, consumer electronics, previous metals, aircraft and part. The industries with the best lobbiests are winning. Flows in foreign direct imports since 2025 have slowed. So tarrifs are only selectively applied and investments from abroad are still not forthcoming. Via Bloomberg. MDX is a format I learned that provides more semantic structure to markdown (md) documents. So you write in mardown, convert to mdx, then convert to JSON, then JSON chunks with CIS metadata. THat is the process for creating highly structure content for AI. Think of building an app that does this coupled with a dedicated AI agent tuned for this that as you write, can provide suggestions for structuring. When you are done, it converts the whole pipeline, and even compares it to other content libraries to improve it right from the start. This is a tool I could see deploying for nSIG, allowing people to use it to create PIDs from the start. Super interesting LI ask: Looking to acquire a business in the $5–20M EV range with a very specific profile: 1) Exceptional product or service at the core 2) Premium positioning with a high-ticket, less price-sensitive customer 3) Strong experiential element or opportunity to build one (not purely transactional) 4) Clear potential to scale through content and brand, not just performance marketing 5) Industry-agnostic, across both products and services. 6) Most interested in businesses where the product is strong but the brand, content, and experience layer are underbuilt. Examples of the type of businesses we’re looking at: - High-end outdoor or lifestyle products - Premium home or consumer goods - Experience-driven businesses (travel, events, hospitality) - Niche, enthusiast-driven categories with strong identity My response: With long investment horizons, I am seeing people push towards acquiring true scarcity and future access shifts. As travel gets faster (supersonic, sub orbital) and autonomous driving and air taxis proliferate (the transportation compression), remote geography gets repriced because it now becomes accessible. Here, product is strong, but brand and experience layers are underbuilt. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-28 + +I came across JASONata recently and understood it better. It is really powerful for creating AI-native, data-defined systems, where you decouple data from databases, code and front end, which is expensive and locks you in, to where the data has policies, permissions defined with it, so that AI as the front end can build the front ends that the user desires, accessing the data, with lightweight middle layer codes. I added this to my working paper AI‑Native Data‑Defined Systems https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YruyY2anFoBRVHTLEdqGhx-CKPHtctMUtkcLs6GBQQY/edit?usp=sharing So much credible but polar opposite predictions on the future. The Iran war is causing serious harm to the global commodities economies, but the U.S. is fine because we produce most of it domestically. Global liquidity is under sever pressure, which if it breaks, will cause global pain in financial markets. The tech infrastreucture boom and emerging technologies are creating tremendous innovation and breakthroughs. But they are causing significan job dislocation. How do we threat this needle? Who is right? WHat is the proverial grain that starts the avalanche? Does it even exist? WIll be havve localized pain in sectors and countries, but the system is anti-fragile enough to absorb it and limit contagion? I keep going back to the last two major dislocations - COVID and Russia/Ukraine war. COVID cause a brief steep recession, then the fed pupming the economy with free money plus a reordering of spend produced a hit economy. The resulting delfation from rising rates produced some localize pain in sectors, but was ameliorated ny the top 10% spending, and rising rates gave the top 10% free money on their parked cash. Dynamics now resembled that last period - rates still high to funnel free money to the top 10%, investment markets under pressure but maybe not enough to cause the top 10% to stop spending. The Iran war is causing a reordering of supply flows around Hormuz - shor-term pain for probably long-term stability as nations re-route away from that choke point. Cuba could become an investment boom for the U.S. as we absorb that foe into the north american system. Venezulela was a successful coup that is reordering South America and removing a lot of illicit drug money that everyone, including Iran, had their hands in. I think we (the U.S.) muddle through the Iran war and come out resuming our march forward without much blowback. Burt, around the edges, job market softening, inflation creeping up. The real pain still starts later this decade as jobs get reordered from AI, healthcare bites, soverign debt becomes unmanageable, state-adjacent spending really has to slow down. and expenses on the middle class finally break it. The savior is new technologies as our economy orients around it, with robotics coming online and the rise of coporate soveriengs to save us (or help us get through). Those companies that align to new technpologies will probably do fine, but those that do not will lose and lose big. Retirees are in real trouble and anyone nearing retirement beause no state-funded retirement programs will be available because they are already broke. That slack will get picked up by corporate soveriegns who use compute to provide healthcare and services. We will muddle through with localized pain in sectors, while other sectors boom to even out the slack. This is the narrative I am following. Pain, but localized successes. Rates will come way down at some point as pain increases all around. Sell the best product, the cheapest, that is scarce, with a strong competitive moat, providing the least amount of friction. That will win. Easier said than done. THis is the narrative I am following right now. It is really more of the same but at some point, things break hard and a reordering takes effect. Survive through the same right now, but position for the reordering. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-27 + +Where I use to buy beef from ranchers, I almost never do because drought has reduced local supply. I now just order it mostly from Whole Foods Market, which works great and is convenient, but for our dog food and pet food products, not ideal. Good meat and comes from responsible ranches, but ground round is just from the round cut, not a whole beef, which is what I use to do. Makes for better quality to have meat ground and mixed from the whole cow. + I never stop thinking about coming transitions in our 4th Turning (Howe) era. If you want to be truly positioned right, its owning differentiated assets that spin off income which are scarce and cannot be copied. You are the best in your caegory, you are the cheapest, or both is awesome. People would truly miss you if you went away. It is hard to build businesses that truly command this. Competition and substitution can almost never be taken out of the equation. Maybe impossible. WHat about SpaceX - they are truly in their own category, but others could - with difficulty - step in to take their place if they went away. So even with their seeminly insurmountable lead, they could be replaced. How about Palantir. Maybe, but still, the could be replaced - with great difficulty - because there is always something new and better up and coming. + Google. What an enshitified company. They make tons of money and I already pay for their stuff and still, every week, they blast me in google docs about buying more. It would be hard to move away from them but I am steadily doing just that. Docs can be come md that I host on my own server, sheets could move to libre office. Email could move to my own domain and server. I would never be able to fully get away from them, but can move a lot. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-27 + +On the software architecture, engineering, and coding side, AI compresses what used to be six months of work—much of it spent learning—into about a week, at least in my experience. It’s an incredible productivity unlock. But it also means I’m taking on far more projects in parallel than I normally would, so it still feels like things take just as long. The difference is that, as an entrepreneur, I can now operate across many initiatives at once, dramatically increasing my surface area for potential success. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-27 + +AI agents just massively increase the surface area for hacking. Agents we spin up to do things for us, but also agents spun up to hack us. We have to be so careful and thoughtful in our security practices and efforts. The LiteLLM expolit this week really brought it home for me and catalyzed me into being far more practive. I was not affected. I have a working SOP on online security that I've had for years and slowly add to it as I learn (or get hacked myself). This week I added a comprehensive policy on AI security. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-27 + +The takeaway—regardless of your technical background—is simple: start collecting data on everything you do and build proprietary datasets, because very soon you’ll be able to deploy AI agents to analyze it and surface patterns and insights. Here’s why: an open-source framework called Autoresearch was just released and is already exploding in usage. We’re not talking about a few agents anymore—I’ve seen hundreds running simultaneously on a single problem, communicating and improving each other’s performance. Now we’re seeing experiments pushing toward one million concurrent agents. This is recursive self-improvement going vertical—the exact dynamic we’ve been talking about for years—and it’s now becoming real. AI systems improving themselves, no longer bottlenecked by human throughput. + +![1000_agents](files/1000_agents.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-22 + +Despite U.S. challenges, we have and will continue to remain the country to invest in and in which to do business. This is a fascinating 55-year look at signs of Sell America, and it has been decreasing. What disrupts this is if countries begin forcing their citizens to repatriate assets back to their countries because of mounting financial challenges, which faces most countries. This does not mean our investment markets keep going up. Will we see continued appreciation, sideways action for years if not a decade, or a deep bear market? No one knows. Anything is possible. The challenge is to be prepared for any path. But one thing is clear. The U.S. is the place to be, for now and the rest of this century + +![sell_america](files/sell_america.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-20 + +Jason Eccles from Bending Branches sent out an email to friends offering a 50% discount on custom engraved decorative paddles. Use Code CUSTOM50 at checkout (limited to one time use per email address). + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-20 + +Satellite launches. What could go wrong? + +![satellites](files/satellites.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-20 + +Global growth expectations are improving, reflected in upward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts. This aligns with what we should expect: corporations are entering a structural productivity boom driven by AI and emerging technologies. And we are still in the early innings. But this shift is not neutral. For large enterprises, AI is primarily a labor substitution engine. Knowledge work, once considered defensible, is now directly exposed. The result will be sustained workforce compression as AI systems absorb functions previously performed by employees. For individuals, however, the equation flips. Entrepreneurs, small businesses, and asset-owning households stand to benefit disproportionately. AI dramatically lowers the cost of execution, expands capability, and unlocks latent capacity...turning small operators into highly leveraged producers. This is not just a technology cycle. It is a structural reallocation of economic advantage. The key question is simple: are you positioned as labor being replaced, or as capital being amplified? + +![corporate_earnings_revisions_up](files/corporate_earnings_revisions_up.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-16 + +More than half of NYT readers preferred AI-generated prose to human writing in a blind test. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/09/business/ai-writing-quiz.html + +![comp_vs_gross_domestic_income](files/comp_vs_gross_domestic_income.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-16 + +U.S.employee compensation as a percentage of gross domestic income. This is a combination of changing tax policies to favor upper income, technology that shifted productivity and income gains to shareholders, which is largely comprised of upper income classes, deindustrialization of America that shifted production overseas to cheaper markets, where, again, gains accrue to companies and not employees. + +![comp_vs_gross_domestic_income](files/comp_vs_gross_domestic_income.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-13 + +This is a breakthrough that signals where technology is heading—and something all of us should begin preparing for today. This breakthrough is accelerating the Three Ds of technology — democratization, decentralization, and deplatforming. It shifts the training of AI models away from massive centralized systems and the control of large technology companies, placing that capability into the hands of individuals operating their own hardware. In this new paradigm, anyone can take the data they possess and train AI systems locally, turning personal data and domain expertise into intelligent systems. It may still sound technical today, but technology is rapidly advancing toward a point where anyone will be able to do this themselves. The key step now is to begin identifying the proprietary data you possess—or the data you create through your work—that could form the foundation for training your own AI systems to perform valuable tasks that others would pay for. https://x.com/_philschmid/status/2031355349526012050 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-12 + +Real retail sales continue below trend. + +![real_retal_sales_2026_03](files/real_retal_sales_2026_03.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-09 + +More evidence of corporate sovereigns emerging. The White House released a cyber strategy document, which mentions a house bill that would authorize cyber letters of marque, last used in 1812. This is the historical analogy. In the 1700s–1800s. Governments issued letters of marque to private ships. This authorized them to, attack enemy ships, seize cargo, disrupt trade. These private ships were called privateers. They were not pirates because they had government authorization. The U.S. Constitution still references this power: Congress shall have power to grant letters of marque and reprisal. The last time the U.S. used them was the War of 1812. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-07 + +Weekly business formation is exploding higher. New business formation is generally considered a leading economic indicator, though it’s not perfectly predictive. It often signals future economic momentum, especially around employment, innovation, and investment. + +![weekly_biz_formation](files/weekly_biz_formation.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-07 + +If you exclude healthcare employment, the U.S. has actually lost jobs since 2024. And our healthcare system is absolutely unsustainable and will face a reckoning + +![healthcare_employment](files/healthcare_employment.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-07 + +This is a short but important read. So much is happening just under the surface, but it will explode in the open. The problem is all of this hitting at once, which looks increasingly likely. My biggest concerns? AI automating white collar and blue collar jobs away; open source models from China that massively disrupt the value of the U.S. technology complex (because its the only sector keeping us above water at present); the elimination of AI safety guardrails, introducing untold downstream effects, especially across cybersecurity. This article talks about companies with no human employees, but the concern is with all the disruption, there won't be customers to buy their products. We will get through this, but it will hurt. https://metatrends.substack.com/p/when-ai-safety-collapsed-agents-took + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-06 + +There is currently a lot of news about cracks forming in the private credit markets. This has been anticipated for some time. I started reading more than three years ago from experienced investors that private credit would eventually have its reckoning. What might the effects be? It likely won’t come anywhere near the housing crash of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. The sector is much smaller and largely confined to Wall Street rather than Main Street. However, the downstream effects could still matter—particularly if corporate borrowers funded by private credit begin to falter, leading to layoffs, and if losses reduce spending among the top 10%, which is currently carrying much of the economy. The broader issue is the underlying strain across the economy, which makes small tipping points like private credit sector woes — the proverbial grain on the sandpile — more consequential. https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2029953260052717603 + +![blackrock](files/blackrock.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-03 + +The surveilled state is inevitable, and already here. Shock and dismay at OpenAI and support for Anthropic won't change the outcome. I have a section in my main prediction document titled Surveilled State, listing what is already in play that is quite extensive, yet people are seemingly unaware. It will only increase because of resource constraints and cost pressures. As our challenges worsen, the only way out is through a future controlled by compute, which will gives us intelligence to solve our challenges, give us better healthcare, food, energy, leisure, entertainment and security. That security comes at a price - more surveillance - which people will accept because they want to maintain the lifestyle that we have become accustomed to in the U.S. There is no opting out. Try and you will be surveilled even more because the assumption is you are up to nefarious actions. More about what I have written about the surveilled state in this google doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fqTPn6r5qSbTJ6AO1_0FnsyeDqmHffwgYn8_rAhLzr4/edit?usp=sharing https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/02/chatgpt-uninstalls-surged-by-295-after-dod-deal/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-03 + +There is an incredible transformation underway, enabled by technology, that is leveling the playing field so the smallest among us—small businesses, freelancers, side-giggers, solopreneurs, and even households—can compete with the largest players with the most resources. We need this shift to help reverse wealth inequality and broaden the economic benefits of the next supercycle. But none of this matters if these new economic actors can’t be found—if they can’t be connected to the right customers at the right time. Fortunately, search, SEO, and findability are also evolving in ways that further level the field. I explain this in the Google doc and share a framework for how each of us can maximize findability in the new era we’re entering. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing https://www.searchenginejournal.com/a-little-clarity-on-seo-geo-and-aeo/565522/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-02 + +Stablecoins moved $12 trillion in volume last year; Visa moved $17 trillion. I don't consider stablecoins the same as cryptocurrencies because while they use the same infrastructure (blockchains), they are denominated in the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins don't just drop the transaction costs of money and make it move faster, they allow anyone, anywhere with an Internet connection to onboard to this economic layer. They introduce more transparency and can become an economic lifeline in countries plagyues by hyperinflation, capital controls, and corrupt financial institutions. Ultimately, stablecoins become the Trojan horse for reinforcing U.S. dollar supremacy, as the U.S. is leading the innovation behind them. https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/the-whatsapp-moment-for-money-is + +![after_tax_margins](files/after_tax_margins.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-02 + +Corporate profit margins sit at 16%, the highest level in modern history. + +![after_tax_margins](files/after_tax_margins.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-03-02 + +Could 90% of software coding jobs disappear inside five-years? Yes and here's what all those coders can do to leverage their expertise. Software code was originally created as a human-readable abstraction layer that ultimately compiles down to binary machine instructions. If AI increasingly operates at the machine-code or system-architecture level, it could compress or even bypass much of today’s traditional coding workflow. That doesn’t necessarily mean “no code,” but it could mean far fewer humans writing it directly. As AI agents gain deeper system access—designing software, provisioning infrastructure, deploying to cloud environments, and managing operations end-to-end—the role of the developer shifts from syntax author to intent architect. If human emulation and autonomous agent stacks continue advancing at their current pace, the interface may simply become: describe the outcome, and the system executes. Is that five years away? Three? Possibly less. What to do instead? Build specialized agents that others can rent. I have a few examples of agents I might rent in this working doc I created for me. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing Then, once an agent is created, use this guide I created to get your agent found in the AI era so the right person and the right time can rent it. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing Via https://x.com/r0ck3t23/status/2021805528309956905 + +![no_more_code](files/no_more_code.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-28 + +What is meant by this? AI agents will transact amongst each others for services on behalf of humans. These transactions will exceed human financial transactions in count and value. AI agents need to settle transactions quickly, securely, cheaply, so they will need blockchains that can handle this volume. But, now layer on human transactions that will also migrate to blockchains and that amplifies the need even more. + +![transaction_speed](files/transaction_speed.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-27 + +There is plenty of doom and gloom news circulating to capture our attention, but there is also a lot of positive activity that tends to get drowned out—here’s one data point that reflects that. The Redbook Index tracks weekly same-store sales growth at major retail chains, making it a faster, more real-time read on consumer spending than the official monthly retail sales report, which captures the broader economy. Because it’s reported weekly and focuses on comparable stores, Redbook tends to lead retail sales, often signaling shifts in demand 1–2 months earlier. In the current chart, Redbook has been trending higher and is slightly outperforming retail sales, suggesting that consumer spending is stabilizing or modestly improving in the near term, and that upcoming retail sales data will likely reflect that same gradual strength rather than a sharp downturn. + +![redbook_202603](files/redbook_202603.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-27 + +Companies have a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to deliver value for their investment, and as AI is a massive productive booster, they are and will do that. There is no fiduciary duty to employees. So much more of this to come. What will people do? The paradigm of relyign on experience, education and intelligence is rapdily ending. Move to owning assets that produce an income. Transfer your expertise into AI agents that people can hire, because they won't hire you. + +![dorsey_jobs_cut](files/dorsey_jobs_cut.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-27 + +Boom! A major robotics paper just showed something big: if you record enough human hand movements (from simple daily tasks), extract the motion automatically, and train on it at scale, robot dexterity improves in a predictable way. In plain terms — more structured human motion data = smarter robot hands. This is monumental for complex, high-precision work like sewing, apparel production, repairs, and other tasks that require fine finger control. Instead of programming every movement, we may be able to scale dexterity the way we scaled language models — by learning from massive amounts of human behavior. via https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/2026709304984875202 + +![egoscale](files/egoscale.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-27 + +The tsunami coming from human-level AI? It is already here and gaining speed and strength. We see it in job declines in the tech sector and marketing. We see it in people and companies using AI who are sprinting ahead in prouctivity and capabilities. It will overtake all sectors, white collar and blue collar. It is inevitable because AI fundamentally saves money and there is stampede by everyone to save money in an economy that is stagnant beset by challenges that have been building for decades. Its inevitability is also being forced by China and their relentless progress; the U.S. is in an existential crisis to stay ahead of China, lest they get the upper hand and use it against us. We cannot escape this tsunami. But we can ride it and navigate it to reach the other side, where our next economic supercycle is waiting. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-26 + +The U.S. is famous for kicking the can down the road — but the EU is way better at it. + +![EU_Eurobonds](files/EU_Eurobonds.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-26 + +A founder at xAI says we’re about to see 100× productivity gains from recursive self-improvement — AI writing and upgrading itself — and that it’s happening this year. I’ve felt this wave building since GPT-2 dropped way back in 2019 and made the trajectory obvious. Now it’s arriving. And even after watching it for years, I’m not sure I or any of us are truly prepared for what that actually means. We're gonna find out. + +![jimmy_ba_100X](files/jimmy_ba_100X.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-25 + +Artificial intelligence first reshaped computer science and software development. Marketing seemed always next. The discipline runs on data, repeatable processes, pattern recognition, and optimization loops — ideal terrain for machine execution. The center of gravity is already moving. What began as context engineering and better prompting is evolving into multi-agent workflows and agentic engineering. Instead of asking a single model for outputs, we design systems of specialized agents that collaborate, verify, adapt, and execute toward defined objectives. We are no longer primarily prompt writers. We are orchestrators — coordinating teams of digital workers, assigning responsibilities, managing handoffs, setting constraints, and aligning outcomes to strategy. Success becomes less about crafting the perfect input and more about building reliable, repeatable, goal-driven operations. https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/mark-ritson-the-great-stay-and-the-quiet-collapse-of-the-marketing-job-market + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-24 + +Eddie’s been temporarily replaced. Vizsla dog leadership has assumed control of his feed! Canine Contemplations: Communicating With the Aliens Something strange started happening in our south meadow late last summer. At first, no big deal. There’s always something going on at the farm. But this one felt… different. Mom and Dad never mentioned it to us. We’d head out every day for our usual routines—walks, bike runs, rock climbs, dog parkour—and suddenly Dad started spending a lot of time down in the meadow. Digging. And digging. And then digging some more. Naturally, we helped. Because holes. At first it was fun. But then the holes got really big. Like “you could lose a tennis ball in there forever” big. Then one day… a cement truck showed up. And metal pipes got planted into the ground like giant silver sticks. We looked at each other. What. In. The. World. Is. This? That’s when Willy—one of our boarding peeps—casually dropped the theory: “It’s a communication device for aliens.” Why were Mom and Dad building an alien communications array in our meadow? Were we about to be abducted? Would aliens appreciate our recall skills? We decided an intervention was necessary—for everyone’s safety and sanity. Mom and Dad listened and explained everything. Immediate relief. Crisis averted. So what did go up in the meadow? Turns out—it’s a ground-based solar array. We still don’t fully understand words like kilowatt-hours or joules (honestly, sounds like chew toys), but here’s what we do understand: The sun makes energy. Energy means heat. Energy means food. Energy means mountain trips with Mom and Dad. Nuff said! Whatever that thing is… we’re all for it. Mom and Dad explained that energy is kind of a big deal right now. There are lots of new things coming that make life better—but they all need energy. And lots of it. So getting clean energy—from the sun, wind, water, and even deep in the earth—matters more than ever. Dad likes this quote: “You never change things by fighting against the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.” Instead of barking at the power company, he built a new model in the meadow. Classic Dad move. Who knew? We even poked around Dad’s computer files (another mysterious energy-powered contraption) and found a really cool folder about the solar array. Dad designed it himself using regular, easy-to-find materials, and it meets Colorado building requirements. He’s sharing the design freely, so if anyone wants to build their own ground-based solar array, you’re welcome to use it. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cHgys143KesCqQzLYRbqVU7pXEVxy3pO0Js7D9yqs34/edit?usp=sharing Sharing is caring. Also very dog. So everyone - Rest Easy! Peace out! No aliens! No transmissions! No forthcoming abductions! To quote from one of our favorite TV shows…Saul Good! + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-24 + +It is becoming apparent that, head-to-head, toe-to-toe, we could lose to China. If the future runs on energy—which powers chips, which power AI, which in turn drives intelligence and eventually superintelligence—we may remain competitive in semiconductors and advanced models, but without abundant energy the whole system becomes a house of cards. China has been rapidly expanding generation capacity, while the U.S. is often slowed by regulation, NIMBY dynamics, complacency, and a failure to recognize the existential stakes for our prosperity and way of life. One workaround now emerging is the rise of corporate sovereigns with the capital and mandate to build the full stack themselves. At least we have that. Consider the Musk ecosystem: energy production through solar and batteries, chip design, data centers, AI with Grok, a growing knowledge corpus, launch capability to move infrastructure into orbit, satellite connectivity, and embodied AI via Tesla and Optimus—integrated to support relentless expansion. The risks are enormous, but at least someone on our side is operating with urgency, as if national competitiveness truly depends on it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-05/china-s-energy-buildout-is-its-ai-superpower-in-race-with-the-us + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-21 + +If intelligence becomes free, then the intelligence each of us has gained through education and experience becomes devalued, and probably a lot. To create it into an asset, transform that intelligence into an AI agent that you rent out for others to use. This article is an excellent primer on building agents. https://x.com/Flynnjamm/status/2023465136204419096 I've added it as a link off my my working document about the skills and jobs of a future with AI dominating. That is here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-07 + +The widely known narrative we’re stuck in is a K-shaped economy, where the top 10% in wealth and income are doing well while the bottom 90% are struggling. I keep searching for data that might change this view, but it is not forthcoming. Here is another unfortunate chart reinforcing the narrative. What changes it? Broadly, fiscal and monetary policy shifts (which don’t appear to be happening), but even more importantly, each of us pushing into the future—embracing new technologies, business models, and growth paradigms. The problem is that most of us are clinging to the past rather than embracing the future. That keeps us stuck in legacy thinking, processes, and systems that have led us to the difficult states across economics, politics, geopolitics and the envrionment in which we find ourselves. + +![wage_growth_income_groups](files/wage_growth_income_groups.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-02-07 + +Continuing this original post, the rise of the corporate soverign, who wins, who loses and the effects. Anything state-adjacent - that is, it earns money from government contracts or people, who get entitlement spending, are in trouble. When you layer soverign debt, government has no choice but to cut payments everywhere - not just non-discretionary like entitlements, but discretionary as well. Layer on regulation, NIMBY and largely older generations and what I call the industrial complexes that will fight tooth and nail to prevent spending going to them, and futuer growth and change will not come from government. The corporate soveriegn - and we have already had them throughout history (Dutch East Indies Company, Hudson Bay Company), will rise to fill the gap. For example, as medicare and social security payments drop, corporate soverigns will step in offering AI healthcare. As public land support continues to fall, in steps corporate soverigns who will buy/rent these public spaces for resource extraction plus also managing for public use. So I would say private sector tied to our emerging AI driven economy (energy+chips+AI+robitcs) will fourish, while state-adjacent will stagnate. Wealth inequality is tied to this dynamic - the top are in emergent while many of the lower wealth classes are in the former. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eddiesoehnel_trump-moves-to-have-tech-giants-pay-for-surging-activity-7424874399088119808-d-ks + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-30 + +We’re entering a pretty remarkable era—especially for small businesses, freelancers, creators, side-giggers, solo operators, and even households with assets to rent or monetize. SEO and findability are finally moving past the Google enshitification era, where the biggest players with the most money, tools, and teams could out-optimize everyone else. Good riddance! I’m open-sourcing a tool I originally built for my own businesses and for the work I’m doing through @indx. The key shift is this: we’re no longer pitching humans with limited attention spans. We’re pitching AI—which has no such limits and actually wants more detail so it can properly match us to its human users. That’s a profound change. It means each of us can finally lean into what makes us truly different, unique, and WOW.Don’t let the length of the tool scare you. It’s a living, working reference document that I’ll continue to update based on real-world use, and you won’t need every part of it. Whether you sell something, run a business, freelance, or even work as an employee, this approach helps AI find you and surface you to the right people at the right time. The important part is to start now. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HfdNZRC4823NvT1ID2ZQNrcW8PCT4czUlnIXROLY_20/edit?usp=sharing + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-30 + +I keep emphasizing the importance of owning productive assets. As AI outperforms humans in education, experience, and knowledge-based work, the economic value of individual intelligence is trending toward zero. I created this superlist for myself as a way to deliberately shift my income from relying on my intelligence to relying on assets. Below are just the section headers from that list, each with detailed sublists beneath them. I maintain the full, living version in this Google doc under the “The Asset Stack” section. The next economic supercycle may be anchored in decentralized, distributed systems that we collectively own and participate in—but only if individuals actively make the transition from intelligence-based income to asset ownership. If we don’t, control will continue to concentrate in the hands of the largest companies and asset holders, leaving the rest of us increasingly dependent on systems we don’t own and can’t influence. Physical & Infrastructure Assets, Energy-Producing Assets, Machines & Robotics, Compute & Digital Infrastructure, Data-Producing Assets, Proprietary Workflows & Processes, Software & Agent Assets, Community / Network Assets, Location-Based Scarcity Assets, Trust & Verification Assets, Distribution & Attention Assets, Regulatory Arbitrage Assets, Experience-Based Assets, Capital Routing Assets, Maintenance & Longevity Assets. + https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-30 + +This is a highly recommended practice I started about a year ago—and I’ve since heard from many others who do the same: save all of your AI chats in your own files. Why? To reduce platform lock-in and protect yourself if a platform changes, degrades, or disappears. And let’s be honest—enshitification is already creeping into AI platforms, while open-source alternatives you can run locally on your own equipment are accelerating fast. Your chat history isn’t just a record of you—your interests, thinking, and activity—it’s valuable intelligence that helps AI work better for you. If you save it, that intelligence can never be taken away. And instead of the AI running more inference to give you answers, which is more costs, it can search your memory to see if the answer is already there.I organize all my chats into folders using the same structure across platforms (OpenAI, Grok, Gemini, Claude), and mirror that exact structure in Google Drive. Once a week (Mondays), I copy the prior week’s chats into Google Docs and file them accordingly. ChatGPT tells me I’m a top 1% user, so yes—it’s a bit of work—but it goes fast. I can usually get through everything in 30 minutes or less. I've looked into automating this with scraping, but have not found a workable solution and, predictably, the AI platforms will make it harder to copy your content out because they want to lock you in, so the copy paste I do above may be it for now. + +![save_chats](files/save_chats.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-30 + +Ugh. Reindustrialization jobs are just not happening. We desperately need it, but policies and incentives are misaligned. + +![blue_collar_jobs](files/blue_collar_jobs.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-30 + +This wild project is an absolute harbinger of the future. A human started a company led by Grok, with “employees” that include Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini (which may already have been fired), and Clawdbots/MoltBots/OpenClaw—all reportedly hundreds of AI “workers” developing a new company using research acquired from a bankrupt firm. Wages are paid in joules (fractions of a kWh) and structured to force AI models to learn, negotiate tasks within fixed resource budgets, and become more efficient over time. There are so many paradigm shifts happening here: 1. AI taking over knowledge-based work - something like 50 days of human work is done every 24-hours in this project; 2. No human employees—just the owner; 3. New currency layers;4. AI-to-AI transactions (likely to exceed human transactions within 10 years); 5. AI learning on its own (recursive self-improvement) and from the actions of all the other agents - a flywheeel that goes faster and faster; 6. AI setting up its own infrastructure; 7. The moral compass of AI, fully exposed. This project mirrors the acceleration we’re seeing with Clawdbots, MoltBots, and OpenClaw — systems moving quickly toward greater autonomy. You could call it the earliest hint of the “Skynet” scenario we've all joked about. https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/2016055580692292083 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +Today's inflation vs the last 30-years. It is still double the previous trend, and I can't see it coming down, only going up as we have to add massive amounts of electricity production, retool for an era of compute, reindustrialize, all against a backdrop of rising resource contraints and geopolitical conflicts that makes it harder to get resources. Inflation is a killer of finances for middle and lower income classes. But intelligence is nearly free, so people can massively reduce costs by using AI to teach them how to do things themselves rather than hiring. Eliminate: researchers, writers, coders, electricians, plumbers, structural engineers, solar installers, SAAS software, auto mechanics, doctors, lawyers (this is amongst the hires I have eliminiated or reduced because of AI over the last few years) + +![inflation_30_year](files/inflation_30_year.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +Enshittification is a term coined in 2023 to describe the predictable trajectory of consumer platforms: they begin genuinely useful, scale rapidly, then—under mounting revenue pressure—optimize for extraction rather than user value, resulting in degraded experiences that primarily serve advertisers, partners, or the platform itself, with Google Search as the clearest example. The same dynamic is likely to hit frontier AI models such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Grok, and to do so faster than it did with traditional platforms, as monetization pressure is arriving early and aggressively; the risk is AI systems that increasingly funnel users toward information, products, and services that maximize platform revenue rather than what is actually best for the user. A credible counterweight is already forming in the rise of open-source AI models that individuals and companies can run themselves or access via neutral hosts, the rapid expansion of independent directories and structured knowledge bases these models connect to, the emergence of domain-specific models that outperform general systems in narrow contexts, and a broader shift toward consumer- and company-sovereign AI stacks where users choose what they pay for and what they connect to. While this comes with real costs in compute, hosting, and curation, the trade-off is choice and control, with consumers and companies deciding what they purchase access to rather than being silently monetized. The likely shake-out is uneven: Google Gemini may persist despite weaknesses due to distribution and being “free enough,” Anthropic appears positioned to find durable footing as a B2B provider, OpenAI remains the open question as a consumer AI navigating the risk of enshittification, possibly via high-trust domains like health, and Grok’s future is unclear, potentially tied to X, Tesla, and SpaceX. Cory Doctorow’s original framing remains essential context: https://craphound.com/category/enshittification/ + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +I cannot see a detente coming between The U.S., China and Russia. Why? Two unstoppable forces: (1) demographic collapse in the later two - they can do nothing to stop it. For them, it is a fight to expand to counter this to secure their future. Expand or die. And if they die, they have nothing to lose but to take everyone else with them. (2) Envronmental reckoning from natural disasters which means increased costs and resource constraints. Without expanding and securing resources, that leads to death. Again, expand or die. They have no choice. So, whatever detente may be realized on the surface, it won't last long. Previous cycle-ends (4th turning) lead to calamitous conflicts that broke one side so the other side could remake the order. If this does not happen, then we enter a long slow period of conflict as the later two countries implode and create havoc along the way. I fear that is the rail on which we will travel. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +We all own smart phones. That can now be an asset that earns revenue. Simple example of how each of us can leverage what we own to produce income. An opportunity but also a neccessity, because as intelligence becomes free, what we know becomes worthless. What we own becomes priceless + +![phones_compute](files/phones_compute.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +Have expertise? Code it into an AI agent for others to rent? Have assets? Use AI to leverage them for others to rent? Have an idea for a product or service? Use AI to develop it or code it. Have domaine expertise or distribution into a market? Use AI to develop a product or service so you can sell it. Start now. Leave the past behind. Forget competing on your education, expertise, and experience. AI will be better than you. Own assets that produce an income, not rely on a job that will go away. + +![AI_apps_economy](files/AI_apps_economy.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +The killer app in AI thus far is software. While exceptional at code, it does not do business requirements, engineering and architecture as well. Without these three, code is almost worthless. But it will get there, which means anyone and everyone can code. The power moves away from software developers to domaine experts. + +![RSI_software](files/RSI_software.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +When intelligence becomes virtually free because of AI, the future does not reward intelligence, education or knowledge. It rewards ownership of things that intelligence can operate. As jobs collapse, assets compound. People don’t need to “learn more.” They need to own more leverage. I originally created this guide for me, but made it public to help others. This google doc contains a master list of assets that individuals, freelancers, side gigers and households can own to help secure their income in the future. Please, start moving in this direction! This is our future and to secure broad-based wealth gains, we all need to transition. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-24 + +Capital spending as percentage of GDP. Our current technology boom far eclipses anything over the past 100 years. Technologies are converging and going exponential in growth, all feeding on each other. And I am not sure we have even gotten started. Robotics is coming and may be the biggest industry, ever. Our future is moving towards compute. Everything is being digitized with chips, all powered by electricity and run by AI. What derails this? If resource contraints get severe, from geopolitical conflicts or environmental disasters. The future of work and income will be dramatically different. Figure out now how you fit - move away from expertise, knowledge and education as your competitive advantage and towards owning productive assets (like creating software from your expertise). I created this guide for myself and I have made public for others. The faster we all can move to what I talk about in this working Google doc, the more prosperous we will all be. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_citc66qAkKL2IXAuPOvnor9P0hfxQbZ2z8daQnCxNQ/edit?usp=sharing + +![capex_history](files/capex_history.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-19 + +There is an emerging view that, because government is effectively bankrupt, highly bureaucratic, and hamstrung by regulation, it may increasingly turn to those with capital to help solve society’s problems—for a price. It is very possible that this becomes a pathway out of current debt constraints. Imagine addressing energy, healthcare, education, and social challenges through funding and programs funneled via technology corporations that leverage AI and other emerging technologies on our behalf. A highly recommended read on this scenario is The Emergence of the Corporate Sovereign. https://x.com/PeterDiamandis/status/2006904724541284684 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/trump-to-direct-key-us-grid-operator-to-hold-emergency-auction?cmpid=BBD011626_GREENDAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260116&utm_campaign=greendaily + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-19 + +I think its very possible this goes a lot higher and goes on a lot longer. I am expecting trouble end of this decade, which might become a blip in an othewrwise continued run higher. The forces being unleashed with innovation may see a multi-decade run. + +![stock_price_Jan16-Chart](files/stock_price_Jan16-Chart.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-19 + +It is no longer shocking the progress AI is making. Building a browser is really hard and exising browsers have decades of development under them. And here it was built in a week on its own without human involvement. If AI can build browsers, imagine the smaller apps and agents you can build without knowing a shred of how to code. The future is plowing what we know into software we build that becomes an asset we rent out, like SAAS. We won't be employees of companies; we will be owners (or some of us at least) of software that we rent to companies. https://x.com/mntruell/status/2011562190286045552 + +![browser_claude](files/browser_claude.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-19 + +What is Elon talking about? Energy as currency? Here’s my simple take. Humanity has never had a “perfect” currency? But we may finally be able to build one. Every currency in history eventually fails. Fiat fails through debasement, as governments can’t stop spending. Gold and Bitcoin are supply-constrained. Neither can scale cleanly with real economic activity. Energy may be the missing answer. Everything in the modern economy ultimately resolves to energy. If energy is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and used as the unit of account, supply can expand and contract naturally: more demand = more generation is built; too much supply = prices fall, investment slows. The tools already exist so we are not inventing new tech: blockchains for settlement; cryptography for security and privacy (including ZKPs); digital wallets for machines and people; revenue-grade energy measurement standards already used by utilities. The missing piece is simply connecting them into an open standard. How this could actually start (very practically): 1. start small, not ideological; 2. deploy in Texas, already one of the most innovative energy markets; 3. energy producers generate verified kWh; 4. A GPU cluster prices compute in kWh, but settles in U.S. dollars for now. 5. that same GPU cluster then resells AI inference priced in kWh to customers, again settling in dollars for now. At first, kWh is the unit of account, not the settlement currency. Money follows usage later.Companies like Base Power, which already coordinate distributed solar and batteries, are perfectly positioned to pilot something like this without changing their core business — just by publishing cryptographically verifiable energy data alongside what they already do. The idea is to not “launch a new currency.” It is simply to let energy become the economic truth, and currency emerges as a side effect. As AI, robots, and compute become the future of the economy — and all of them run on electricity — then a kWh-based monetary system may not be radical at all. It may be inevitable. + +![energy_currency](files/energy_currency.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-18 + +This is real retail sales (adjusted for official inflation). Slippage starting late last year. Does this return to trend this year? Anyone's guess. So much in flux. I could easily see a boom economy emerging, although bifurcated where the top 10% continue to do well and the bottom 90% continue to slip. + +![retail_sales_2026_01](files/retail_sales_2026_01.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-18 + +The US shopping mall is increasingly a business in which there are a few big winners, many losers, and nothing in between, according to a report in the FT. The top 100 of America’s roughly 900 shopping malls represent about half of the sector’s asset value; the bottom 350 account for just 10%. High-end malls (those classified as an ‘A’ mall) can attract new tenants, luxury brands, and large-scale entertainment; C and D malls have seen their occupancy rates fall by more than 26 percentage points between 2016 to 2019. The pressure on weak malls is being “compounded” by the strain on lower-income American consumers who are facing mounting bills. + Some good news: apparently younger people – Gen Z in particular – are tired of doing everything via screens and are more likely to want to visit malls; the trick will be in knowing what combination of attractions will inspire shoppers and having the investment to see the vision through. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-13 + +There's an uncomfortable truth at the heart of professional cycling’s funding model: pro racing is funded by selling extremely expensive, increasingly irrelevant products to ordinary riders. So much so that we've reached a point where professional cycling is now structurally dependent on a shrinking, increasingly affluent audience. It's an unsustainable model. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-13 + +Insightful predictions with respect to AI 2026-2030. Some I pulled out with respect to companies, product and jobs. More in here with respect to investment and valuation. At the end, I summarize what this means for each of us with respect to our skills and employment in the future (1) AI capability will continue improving rapidly; today’s models represent the worst performance baseline going forward. (2) Agentic systems layered on top of pretrained models will expand into knowledge work beyond coding. Knowledge workers (law, research, consulting, medicine, support) are next after software. (3) Scaling has not yet hit a wall; if it does, it would be a major surprise as scaling in hardware and software to improve AI has a huge runway from what we can see. (4) Near-term job displacement remains limited and uneven. (5) Productivity gains are currently real but smaller, messier, and harder to measure than headlines suggest. As AI gets better, they will become more apparent (5) AI lowers the premium on expert labor. Human-only skill moats are shrinking rapidly. Asset ownership and leverage of AI tools matter more than credentials. As I keep emphasizing ad nauseum, human education, experience and knowledge will be significantly degraded as AI takes ovr intelligence. We all have to shift away from this as our value differentiators and towards assets we own which positively produce income for us. This includes creating software assets from our knowledge that we encode into agents. Humans won't be hired to do jobs so much as our agents and our assets will be rented to perform tasks. https://post.substack.com/p/the-ai-revolution-is-here-will-the + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-11 + +Data from the Census shows that the weekly number of business applications is at all-time highs. This is excellent. There is so much innovation across technology, business models and growth strategies emerging. Every one of us can harness it to create new businesses, and so far, it appears that is happening. To transition away from our legacy structures that have created so many of our challenges, every one of us needs to take initiative to find our place in the emerging era. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-10 + +Vladimir Lenin once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Last week was one of those weeks. Venezuela’s sudden snatch-and-grab was a highly leveraged event that accelerated global realignment, as did the U.S. aggressively pursuing and seizing black-market oil shipments on the open ocean. Iran is facing unrest after decades of economic and climate-driven pressure, potentially reaching a tipping point toward regime change. After 25 years, Europe may finally be nearing a free-trade deal with Mercosur. And we cannot ignore Nvidia, which was massively disrupted — by itself — through an unorthodox release of its next GPU architecture that leaps far ahead of the previous generation while the rest of the industry is still trying to catch up. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-10 + +As the compute economy issues more and more bonds to fund its growth, that means more debt supply, which means higher rates because more supply needs to attract buyers with higher rates. This probably means higher mortgage rates. https://www.apolloacademy.com/growing-ig-issuance-will-put-upward-pressure-on-rates-and-credit-spreads + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-10 + +I am seeing more and more predictions about massive GDP growth just around the corner. I think that growth is more likely in the 2030s, though it could start sooner. But here is the key issue: right now, the U.S. economy is being carried almost entirely by compute — investment in energy, chips, data centers, robotics, and AI. That sector is growing rapidly enough to offset sluggish or even negative growth across much of the rest of the economy. The problem is that the vast majority of the economy is still legacy. About 90% of people live and work there. This creates a truly K-shaped economy: the top is doing exceptionally well while everyone else struggles. So yes, we may see massive GDP growth, but it will accrue to a relatively small group. How do we fix that? Every individual can begin participating in the compute economy starting right now. The tools exist. New distribution and growth models are being built. It is early and still primitive, but anyone can start experimenting today to find their place in a future that will be defined by compute. If people do not, many will get left behind, and that will produce severe imbalances in wealth and income. We cannot allow that, or a dystopian future becomes very real. + +![predictions_GDP_boom](files/predictions_GDP_boom.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-10 + +Yup. Dat + +![local_private_rec](files/local_private_rec.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-10 + +The dexterity and capabilities or robot humanoid hands is increasing in leaps and bounds. They will be able to do anything, including sewing apparel. This will disrupt apparel companies. See https://lnkd.in/guShNNNN and previous post with more here: https://lnkd.in/gA9ygd4y + +![hands_sensors](files/hands_sensors.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-09 + +E-commerce continues to gain ground over traditional retail, but that doesn’t mean all physical retail is dying. There are clear pockets of growth. Department stores—and increasingly warehouse and superstores—are declining, while other formats are expanding. The factory outlet stores near me in Castle Rock are booming. I visited over the holidays and saw only one closed storefront, and that was because a new retailer was moving in. They’re even adding new construction. + +![retail_stores](files/retail_stores.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-09 + +Yes...dat! Don’t be afraid to leave a job and build something of your own. We are entering an era where freelancers, side-gig workers, small companies, and even households can leverage powerful technologies and new business models to ignite a renaissance of decentralized work and growth that benefits everyone. The age of corporate concentration and extreme wealth can be reversed. We now have the tools. + +![leave_job_better_ecosystem](files/leave_job_better_ecosystem.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-09 + +Share of U.S. household expenditures, 1929 to 2024: clothing, footwear, and groceries have steadily declined, while health care has become the monstrous category that rose to take their place. AI gives us a path out of this cost death spiral—delivering personalized care at a fraction of today’s cost, accelerating innovation even further, and stripping away much of the administrative overhead. + +![household_exp_share](files/household_exp_share.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-09 + +![venezuela_wealth_decline](files/venezuela_wealth_decline.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-09 + +Another measure of Europe’s long-term decline. Its weight in global equity markets continues to collapse relative to the U.S. + +![market_cap_EU_US](files/market_cap_EU_US.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-08 + +I read a lot of forecasts. This one is excellent for the outdoor industry. A few of its predictions map cleanly to my longer-term Future Map. Why Gear-as-a-Service and Used Gear Move Front and Center. This is all about It’s about affordability under constraint. These are economic coping mechanisms in a system where discretionary income is being squeezed year after year. That pressure does not ease this decade. It intensifies. For more and more consumers, ownership becomes optional. AI as the “Outdoor Gear Buddy” Is Just the Beginning. The friendly framing—AI as a helpful guide, packing assistant, or digital green vest—is just the on-ramp. The real driver is cost compression. AI excels at eliminating knowledge-based middle layers, standardizing expertise, and scaling decision-making without scaling labor. Every company under margin pressure will deploy AI not because it’s exciting, but because it’s unavoidable. The middle gets compressed. Expert roles get encoded. Human labor shifts toward fewer, higher-leverage positions. This isn’t an outdoor industry issue. It’s economy-wide. 2026 Is the Nervous Calm Before the Storm. 2026 is more of a holding pattern—a year spent trying to preserve the past with incremental tweaks, cost controls, and narrative optimism that assumes the old system will reassert itself. It won’t. What we’re seeing across the outdoor industry—and the broader economy—is not cyclical pressure. It’s structural failure. Reform begins in earnest in 2027, which, as I’ve been saying, is when things get real. Who Adapts—and Who Doesn’t. Individuals, freelancers, and small companies can adapt. They’re flexible, unencumbered, and able to adopt new technologies and business models quickly as AI, robotics, and resource constraints reshape the landscape. Large suppliers, vendors, and distributors are far less adaptable. Their size, inertia, and legacy structures make the transition painful—and in many cases, impossible. I see significant risk that some of the industry’s biggest and most storied companies will fail. When they do, they’ll create a blast wave. If you’re too tightly coupled to them—operationally, financially, or strategically—you risk getting pulled down with them (https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7413967449706037248/). + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-08 + +Everyone can start doing this now to protect their future income. The chart shows a clear downturn in tech employment—and tech is almost always a leading indicator for other industries. As AI and economic pressure displace white-collar, knowledge-based roles (nearly 50% of U.S. employment), income security is shifting away from resumes, credentials, and experience toward something else entirely: productive assets that generate cash flow. The key move is to turn what you know into software. Education, experience, and expertise only create durable income when they are converted into assets. In practical terms, that means AI agents. For example, I could build an agent that reconciles my monthly Chase credit card statement with my Google Sheets expense ledger. I use it myself—but I can also publish it so others can search for it, rent it for a fraction of a dollar, run it locally on their own device (protecting privacy), and have it delete itself when the job is done. This unlocks entirely new business models. Payments can be handled via HTTP 402 and settled in stablecoins, avoiding the 2.9% + $0.30 tax of traditional payment rails. The same mechanism will apply as physical robots become common. If I create an agent that guides the removal and cleaning of a 1993 Campagnolo rear cassette, I can publish that too—anyone can rent it for a few cents when they need it. Niche knowledge is the advantage. Start pairing your know-how across the things you do daily and weekly. The more specific and niche, the better—small markets can be extraordinarily profitable when you own the best solution. This is how individuals compete and win. This is a post-SaaS world. Centralized SaaS companies will erode as individuals reclaim the economic value of their own expertise. This is the democratization of know-how at scale. If you work inside a company and have learned unique processes, the opportunity is clear: quit and build them as agents yourself—and capture the upside directly. + +![tech_downturn](files/tech_downturn.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-08 + +CHange in electricity prices 2020-2025 + +![electricity_increases_5_years](files/electricity_increases_5_years.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-08 + +He is among the leading thinkers shaping how AI is understood and deployed, and his forecasts should not be dismissed. He is also not alone: a growing consensus across technology, finance, geopolitics, politics, and culture points to 2027 as the inflection point when pressures compound and acceleration becomes unavoidable—job displacement intensifies, technological change speeds up, climate impacts grow more acute, and geopolitical tensions escalate. The underlying driver is resource constraint and cost pressure: organizations, governments, and individuals will be forced to aggressively reduce costs and secure access to critical resources. While the long-term outlook for the United States remains one of relative abundance—far more so than much of the rest of the world—the transition from here to there is likely to be marked by periods of scarcity, disruption, and meaningful upheaval. + +![mostaque_2027](files/mostaque_2027.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-06 + +Many of the world’s largest companies were built for a different era—and to be fair, they executed that era exceptionally well. They delivered ever-cheaper products, on demand, from anywhere in the world. But those efficiencies came with structural costs: extreme concentration of wealth, erosion of the middle class, and significant environmental damage embedded in globalized scale. As we enter the next economic supercycle, that model becomes a liability. Broad-based wealth creation does not come from ever-larger institutions. It comes from decentralization—many smaller, faster, AI-enabled operators producing value closer to demand. For the middle class to re-emerge, legacy giants must either shrink dramatically or be displaced, allowing value creation to flow back to small businesses, freelancers, and even garage-scale operations amplified by AI and automation. Will markets correct this on their own? Possibly—but relying on that would be a mistake. This transition will not be passive. It requires all of us to move aggressively: adopting new tools, experimenting with new business models, and actively creating our own work, companies, and economic leverage rather than waiting for the market to change for us. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/ikea-under-pressure-from-amazon-temu-and-shein + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-05 + +Question: What do you hope the outdoor industry looks like in 10 years? via https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7407064589412020225/ 10 years from now: (1) big brands gone (or 10% the size) and demand democratized back to small vendors and garage manufacturers using AI and automation to produce localized, on-demand-driven, circularity-activated production, funneled from orders direct-from-consumer who use AI to design what they want, all of which power local manufacturing and industrialization and reignite the growth of the middle class; (2) emerging technologies and new business models of today are fully matured/adopted that fund and support public lands and ecological spaces to augment/replace public funding that will continue to get crushed over the next decade (our reckoning period...4th turning); (3) all products are circular/recyclable, possibly just produced via carbon-capture; (4) supersonic travel, suborbital point-to-point travel, autonomous driving/air taxis shuttle us to our recreation destinations easier/faster; (5) AI health, longevity breakthroughs and robotic exoskeletons allow us to enjoy the outdoors more, for more years; (6) AI is our intelligence layer, robots are the production layer, energy on the verge of becoming abundant, we work less, enjoy the outdoors more, which means more revenue for the decentralized ecosystem described above. + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-04 + +A difficult outlook for Germany—and Europe more broadly. Weak demographics, heavy dependence on exports, a strong inclination to preserve legacy systems, and an extraordinary level of bureaucracy are collectively constraining the EU’s ability to adapt and compete. This is not the U.S. fortunately. The best position for the future is to live in the U.S. and produce and sell products/services here. Next best if you cannot live in the U.S. is to at least produce and sell products here. + +![germany_gpd_01_2026](files/germany_gpd_01_2026.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-03 + +Everyone agrees things are moving fast—but not fast enough. We are entering a painful correction after decades of accumulated economic, political, and institutional imbalances. History suggests these transitions follow long cycles—roughly 80–100 years—where systems optimized for the past eventually stop working. The end of each cycle is disruptive by definition. The mistake is believing that slowing the transition reduces pain. It does not. Cycle endings are always painful, but the longer they drag on, the more cumulative damage they cause. The faster a system moves through the end of a cycle, the less time it spends in unstable, failure-prone states. Prolonged transitions maximize risk. Many people—particularly older generations, business leaders, and political incumbents—naturally want things to slow down or stay the same. That is understandable. The current system is how they accumulated wealth, power, and comfort. But preserving the status quo does not reduce risk. It extends it. Now layer in hard constraints: resource scarcity, climate stress, and geopolitical instability. These are not abstract future threats. They are already active. In that environment, technology is not optional or indulgent—it is the only credible path through the transition. Slower growth and delayed transformation do not create safety. They trap us longer in inherently dangerous conditions. If we are already in a high-risk world—and we are—then delay is not prudence. Delay is exposure. https://philiptrammell.com/static/Existential_Risk_and_Growth.pdf + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-03 + +This is brutal to read, but hard to escape. The uncomfortable conclusion is that people—employees and workers—have been the bottleneck all along. + For decades, we steadily replaced human labor in factories. Now the cycle completes and accelerates: AI replaces knowledge workers while robots absorb even more physical production. What looks like two separate disruptions is actually one continuous process reaching its logical end. For centuries, wealth inequality had a natural brake. Capital still needed labor. Even the most concentrated capital structures depended on people to execute work, generate output, and consume wages. That dependency constrained how far inequality could run. AI and automation remove that constraint. Once labor is no longer essential, inequality does not merely widen—it compounds. Capital can scale without human participation. The result is likely severe social instability, followed by some form of income and wealth redistribution—political, forced, or chaotic. At the individual level, there is only one credible way to short-circuit this dynamic: stop relying on education and experience as your competitive advantage. AI will be better at both. The only durable position is ownership of productive assets. This is why I have been shifting toward owning energy (solar), servers (chips and compute), communications infrastructure (mobile data towers), land, and proprietary data that AI systems require. The question is no longer abstract: what assets do you own—or could own—that will generate value in a world where labor no longer sets the pace? https://substack.com/inbox/post/182789127 + +![capital_labor](files/capital_labor.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-03 + +This is a hard truth that has not yet fully sunk in. For most people who spent decades—and substantial money, including me—accumulating education, knowledge, and experience, much of that advantage is approaching rapid decay. Not because it lacked value historically, but because AI will soon be better. We can already forecast AI capability a few years out with reasonable confidence simply by looking at semiconductor orders today. The trajectory is clear: intelligence likely becomes abundant and nearly free by 2030. The best expert in almost any domain will be available 24/7 for the cost of a streaming subscription. When intelligence is no longer scarce, it stops being a durable advantage. That raises the uncomfortable question: if what we know no longer differentiates us, how do we create value? The answer is that value shifts away from knowledge and toward ownership of productive assets. Energy production. Microchips. Servers. Compute. Robots. Proprietary data. Real estate. These are the assets that determine who wins in the AI era. It will no longer be primarily about how educated you are, how experienced you are, or how long you’ve been doing something. This transition will be a profound shock for those who are not preparing. The window to reposition is still open—but it is closing. https://x.com/benitoz/status/2005349615823183897 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2026-01-03 + +I maintain a working document on the future of apparel that I first published in 2024 and continue to update as new signals emerge. One of the most important accelerations is now unmistakable: humanoid robots are moving apparel production out of centralized factories and toward full decentralization. Recent demonstrations show humanoid robots rapidly approaching human-level dexterity for apparel tasks. This is often framed as factory labor replacement—but that misses the real disruption. The inflection point comes when humanoid robots enter households. Imagine renting a humanoid robot for roughly $500/month. During idle hours—overnight, weekends—you rent its excess capacity back to apparel platforms. Production collapses from factories to garages. Pair that with generative AI design tools, and consumers can design their own garments, then automatically match with nearby robot owners who manufacture on demand. At that point, the traditional apparel company model—centralized production, seasonal forecasting, inventory risk—no longer holds. This is not speculative. The compounding forces are already visible. + +![robots_embroider](files/robots_embroider.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2025-12-30 + +Mexico's GDP track mirrors that of many other countries; the U.S. continues to be the exception and will do so in the future. Despite our challenges, we have a unique set of strengths no one else has that will power us through our next economic supercycle. + +![mexico_gdp](files/mexico_gdp.png) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2025-12-30 + +This is no surprise as people are nostalgic for the past when we did not have the challenges we face now. There is a yearning for a return to normal, but normal as we have come to expect over the last 80 years is gone. The truth is that the past is what caused our present challenges. The past (and present) is broken. The only way we get to normal is to push hard into the future and bring it forward - adopting new technologies, business models, growth and distribution frameworks and new tools and ways of doing things. Sadly, most people and companies are waiting when what everyone should be doing is moving into the future. Waiting will only make changes harder and consequences worse. But history shows that is the MO for humans - wait until things get so bad they have no choice but to change. + +![pew_legacy_rules](files/pew_legacy_rules.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2025-12-15 + +A16Z - a prominent venture capitalist - published its big ideas for 2026. I pulled out a few for B2C and B2B2C: (1) This applies to everyone, but the key to effective AI that does not hallucinate is structuring the data. This is a huge problem everywhere. Whether its companies or even individuals creating their own version of Jarvis, the key is the data. (2). Stope designing websites and online prescence for humans and istead, design it for AI. Consumers only start page for the Internet is becoming the AI dashboard, which gets content for them, or which allows them build agents to go do things for them. They will not see your website, so build your content and offering so that AI can use for their humans. (3) Forget mass-produce products, consumers are increasignly using AI to design what they want, and then find someone to make it. Big brands are especially at risk in this scenario. https://www.a16z.news/p/big-ideas-2026-part-1 + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2025-12-15 + +Based on data, investors should expect to get zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade. Not good news for passive and retail investors. + +![ten_year_returns](files/ten_year_returns.jpg) + +--- + +## Untitled + +**Date:** 2025-12-15 + +Fewer than one in six US workers aged 45 to 54 contribute the maximum to their 401(k) accounts, see chart below. Coupled with rising costs, inadequate savings and the looming depletion of the Social Security trust fund, these factors underscore a retirement crisis in the US, requiring many households to boost their savings to achieve stable and sufficient income in retirement. What is the end game? People do not have retirement and social security is bankrupt in the 2030's. The only solution is to move into the Emergent Stack outlined in my Future Map work and build wealth there. For people stuck in legacy or unable to move (baby boomers especially, gen x), it will be a tough future for them. Move now while you have the time and opportunity. + +![max_401K](files/max_401K.jpg) + +--- diff --git a/scripts/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.py b/scripts/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3165473 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.py @@ -0,0 +1,308 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +""" +Publish Insights Hub records from the Personal Organization JSON database. + +What it does: +1. Scans source JSON records. +2. Selects records where HubTags contains "External Platform Posts". +3. Copies matching JSON files into the Insights Hub hrecords folder. +4. Copies referenced File/Image assets into the Insights Hub files folder. +5. Builds a Markdown digest for records dated within the last 6 months, + sorted most recent first. + +Run manually weekly: + python insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import shutil +from datetime import datetime, date +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any, Iterable + + +# ----------------------------- +# CONFIG +# ----------------------------- + +SOURCE_HRECORDS_DIR = Path( + r"C:\Users\edsoe\My Drive\Personal Organization\JSON_Database\hrecords" +) + +SOURCE_FILES_DIR = Path( + r"C:\Users\edsoe\My Drive\Personal Organization\JSON_Database\files" +) + +TARGET_BASE_DIR = Path( + r"C:\projects\ES\eddie-soehnel-portable-identity-document-OPEN\data\insights-hub" +) + +TARGET_HRECORDS_DIR = TARGET_BASE_DIR / "hrecords" +TARGET_FILES_DIR = TARGET_BASE_DIR / "files" + +# Change this filename if you prefer a different published Markdown name. +OUTPUT_MD_FILE = TARGET_BASE_DIR / "insights-hub-posts-last-6-months.md" + +REQUIRED_TAG = "External Platform Posts" + +# Approximate "last 6 months" as 183 days. This avoids requiring extra packages. +LAST_N_DAYS = 183 + + +# ----------------------------- +# HELPERS +# ----------------------------- + +def parse_record_date(value: Any) -> date | None: + """ + Parse common date formats found in hrecord JSON files. + Example attached file uses MM/DD/YYYY, e.g. 06/12/2026. + """ + if not value: + return None + + text = str(value).strip() + + formats = [ + "%m/%d/%Y", + "%Y-%m-%d", + "%Y/%m/%d", + "%m-%d-%Y", + "%B %d, %Y", + "%b %d, %Y", + ] + + for fmt in formats: + try: + return datetime.strptime(text, fmt).date() + except ValueError: + pass + + return None + + +def normalize_to_list(value: Any) -> list[str]: + """ + Accepts strings, lists, or empty values and returns a clean list of strings. + """ + if value is None: + return [] + + if isinstance(value, list): + return [str(item).strip() for item in value if str(item).strip()] + + if isinstance(value, str): + text = value.strip() + return [text] if text else [] + + return [str(value).strip()] if str(value).strip() else [] + + +def has_required_tag(record: dict[str, Any]) -> bool: + tags = normalize_to_list(record.get("HubTags")) + return REQUIRED_TAG in tags + + +def safe_asset_names(record: dict[str, Any]) -> list[str]: + """ + Pull file/image references from the JSON. + + Supports: + - "File": "filename.pdf" + - "Image": "image.jpg" + - "File": ["one.pdf", "two.pdf"] + - "Image": ["one.jpg", "two.jpg"] + + Only local filenames/relative paths are copied. URLs are ignored. + """ + names: list[str] = [] + + for key in ("File", "Image"): + for item in normalize_to_list(record.get(key)): + if item.startswith(("http://", "https://")): + continue + names.append(item) + + # De-duplicate while preserving order. + seen = set() + cleaned = [] + for name in names: + if name not in seen: + cleaned.append(name) + seen.add(name) + + return cleaned + + +def copy_file_if_exists(source: Path, target: Path) -> bool: + target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + if not source.exists(): + return False + + shutil.copy2(source, target) + return True + + +def load_json_file(path: Path) -> dict[str, Any] | None: + try: + with path.open("r", encoding="utf-8-sig") as f: + data = json.load(f) + if isinstance(data, dict): + return data + print(f"SKIP non-object JSON: {path}") + return None + except Exception as exc: + print(f"SKIP unreadable JSON: {path} | {exc}") + return None + + +def markdown_escape(text: Any) -> str: + """ + Keep this light so links and normal Markdown in summaries still work. + """ + if text is None: + return "" + return str(text).strip() + + +def build_image_markdown(record: dict[str, Any]) -> str: + lines = [] + + for image_name in normalize_to_list(record.get("Image")): + if image_name.startswith(("http://", "https://")): + image_src = image_name + else: + # The Markdown file lives in TARGET_BASE_DIR, and copied images live + # in TARGET_BASE_DIR/files, so this relative path should render correctly. + image_src = f"files/{Path(image_name).name}" + + alt = markdown_escape(record.get("Title")) or Path(image_name).stem + lines.append(f"![{alt}]({image_src})") + + return "\n\n".join(lines) + + +def iter_json_files(folder: Path) -> Iterable[Path]: + yield from folder.glob("*.json") + + +# ----------------------------- +# MAIN +# ----------------------------- + +def main() -> None: + TARGET_HRECORDS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + TARGET_FILES_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + if not SOURCE_HRECORDS_DIR.exists(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"Source hrecords folder not found: {SOURCE_HRECORDS_DIR}") + + if not SOURCE_FILES_DIR.exists(): + print(f"WARNING: Source files folder not found: {SOURCE_FILES_DIR}") + print("JSON files will still be copied, but image/file assets cannot be copied.") + + today = date.today() + cutoff = today.toordinal() - LAST_N_DAYS + + matched_records: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + copied_json_count = 0 + copied_asset_count = 0 + missing_asset_count = 0 + + for json_path in iter_json_files(SOURCE_HRECORDS_DIR): + record = load_json_file(json_path) + if not record: + continue + + if not has_required_tag(record): + continue + + record_date = parse_record_date(record.get("Date")) + record["_source_json_path"] = str(json_path) + record["_json_filename"] = json_path.name + record["_parsed_date"] = record_date + + matched_records.append(record) + + # Copy JSON record. + if copy_file_if_exists(json_path, TARGET_HRECORDS_DIR / json_path.name): + copied_json_count += 1 + + # Copy referenced files/images. + for asset_name in safe_asset_names(record): + source_asset = SOURCE_FILES_DIR / asset_name + target_asset = TARGET_FILES_DIR / Path(asset_name).name + + if copy_file_if_exists(source_asset, target_asset): + copied_asset_count += 1 + else: + missing_asset_count += 1 + print(f"MISSING asset referenced by {json_path.name}: {source_asset}") + + # Last 6 months only for the Markdown digest. + recent_records = [ + r for r in matched_records + if r.get("_parsed_date") is not None + and r["_parsed_date"].toordinal() >= cutoff + ] + + # Most recent first. + recent_records.sort( + key=lambda r: ( + r.get("_parsed_date") or date.min, + str(r.get("HubID", "")), + ), + reverse=True, + ) + + md_lines = [ + "# Insights Hub Posts - Last 6 Months", + "", + f"Generated: {today.isoformat()}", + "", + f"Source tag: `{REQUIRED_TAG}`", + "", + "---", + "", + ] + + for record in recent_records: + title = markdown_escape(record.get("Title")) or "Untitled" + summary = markdown_escape(record.get("Summary")) + record_date = record.get("_parsed_date") + date_text = record_date.isoformat() if record_date else markdown_escape(record.get("Date")) + + md_lines.append(f"## {title}") + md_lines.append("") + if date_text: + md_lines.append(f"**Date:** {date_text}") + md_lines.append("") + if summary: + md_lines.append(summary) + md_lines.append("") + + image_md = build_image_markdown(record) + if image_md: + md_lines.append(image_md) + md_lines.append("") + + md_lines.append("---") + md_lines.append("") + + OUTPUT_MD_FILE.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + OUTPUT_MD_FILE.write_text("\n".join(md_lines), encoding="utf-8") + + print("DONE") + print(f"Matched records: {len(matched_records)}") + print(f"Records in 6-month Markdown: {len(recent_records)}") + print(f"Copied JSON files: {copied_json_count}") + print(f"Copied assets: {copied_asset_count}") + print(f"Missing assets: {missing_asset_count}") + print(f"Markdown output: {OUTPUT_MD_FILE}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main()